Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was sharply lower on weaker export sales and a stronger US Dollar. Futures moved to 8000 March that had been an objective for many before collapsing. Trends remain up for now, but the price action on Friday suggests that a sideways at best trade can develop in front of the USDA reports that will be released this week. Price Group expects few changes to US production estimates as the Cotton production appears to have held well. USDA can show increased export demand and slightly smaller ending stocks, although overall supplies should still be big. However, the hurricanes and the freeze appear to have really damaged quality and the quality losses have forced mills and exporters to pay up for better quality Cotton. Producers remain limited sellers at best. Prices can remain generally strong even if a short-term top has been found. Mills are caught unpriced on a lot of purchases. The On Call data from USDA each week has been given as a major reason to expect higher prices in the next month. Mills will have to pay up again to get covered due to the recent rally.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast will get light rain or Snow today and better chances for precipitation starting about Thursday. Temperatures should be below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be mostly below normal today and tomorrow, then will trend to above normal. The USDA average price is now 75.61 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 47,655 bales, from 47,665 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 8000 March. Support is at 7720, 7700, and 7670 March, with resistance of 7860, 7940, and 7960 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 02, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 345,066
: Positions :
: 118,695 19,158 63,592 58,479 235,543 85,254 12,654 326,019 330,948: 19,046 14,118
: Changes from: December 26, 2017 (Change in open interest: 11,293) :
: 1,318 100 5,582 1,828 3,499 995 31 9,723 9,212: 1,569 2,081
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 34.4 5.6 18.4 16.9 68.3 24.7 3.7 94.5 95.9: 5.5 4.1
: Total Traders: 327 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 147 63 91 51 75 28 13 272 205:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ On-Call Cotton – Jan 5
As of Dec 30. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Mar 18 50,426 53,130 -2,704 7,454 8,358 -904
May 18 31,880 31,394 486 1,391 1,025 366
Jul 18 33,592 33,336 256 2,573 2,539 34
Oct 18 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 18 19,743 18,993 750 9,616 9,731 -115
Mar 19 9,379 8,914 465 577 533 44
May 19 2,412 2,010 402 10 10 0
Jul 19 3,207 2,297 910 617 617 0
Dec 19 2,558 2,309 249 5,712 5,377 335
Mar 20 1,091 842 249 146 146 0
Total 154,288 153,225 1,063 28,096 28,336 -240
Open Change
Int
Mar 18 175,374 173,309 2,065
May 18 54,078 50,115 3,963
Jul 18 19,469 18,179 1,290
Oct 18 1 1 0
Dec 18 31,799 30,349 1,450
Mar 19 670 674 -4
May 19 57 43 14
Jul 19 381 369 12
Dec 19 860 847 13
Mar 20 0 0 0
Total 282,689 273,886 8,803

DJ USDA Volume Of Cotton Classed Report – Jan 5
Data quoted in bales for week ending Jan 4. Totals may not add due
to rounding. * denotes data withheld to avoid disclosure of individual
producer information. Source: USDA
Weekly Season Weekly Season
Southeast 149,227 4,025,601 Southwest 466,665 7,036,974
NC 14,674 722,274 Okla 29,853 333,256
SC 16,456 367,324 Texas * 428,312 6,645,746
Ga 79,644 2,011,484 Kansas 8,500 57,972
Ala 27,470 651,392
Fla 5,252 108,470 Far West 37,370 467,955
Va 5,731 164,657 NM * 3,931 29,379
Ariz 21,604 266,532
Delta 33,585 3,690,509 Calif 11,835 172,044
Miss 17,742 1,219,518
Tenn 1,519 718,464 Pima 30,419 502,216
Mo 2,871 678,547 Other 0 0
Ark 11,453 1,073,980 Total US 717,266 16,130,951
La – 407,696 pct tenderable 55.7 71.8

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower again on Friday as the cold spell started to move north and away from Florida without causing much apparent damage if any damage at all. It did not get cold enough to damage crops, but the crop remains very small, anyway. USDA could curt its production estimates a Little bit again on Friday. Overall weather conditions are considered good in Florida at this time, with mostly dry conditions, but with cooler temperatures that could help acid formation. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors and the fresh fruit packers. Trees in Florida that are still alive now are showing fruit of good sizes, although many have lost a lot of the fruit. Florida producers are actively harvesting and performing maintenance on land and trees. Processors mostly getting field run fruit. FCOJ processors are also getting imports from Brazil, Mexico, and Europe
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather and below normal temperatures. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that no January deliveries have been posted yet.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 144.00 and 151.00 March. Support is at 137.00, 134.00, and 132.00 March, with resistance at 141.00, 145.00, and 148.00 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Trader- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 2, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 13,738 :
: Positions :
: 6,886 5,942 1,133 0 0 230 3,232 83 863 906 2,347 :
: Changes from: December 26, 2017 :
: 633 -367 102 0 -1 -334 815 19 75 145 -38 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 50.1 43.2 8.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 23.5 0.6 6.3 6.6 17.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 69 :
: 22 17 5 0 0 . 10 . 14 11 14 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in early trading as the US Dollar moved higher against most other world currencies. The cash market seemed mostly quiet due to the price weakness. Reports of generally good growing conditions at this time in Brazil provided the best reasons to sell, but reduced exports from Brazil provide a good reason to buy. Ideas are that Vietnam also has a lot of Coffee to sell. Internal prices in Vietnam remain at high levels compared to London, and were stable last week. Many are concerned about the potential for reduced Brazil production due to earlier drought and the cold and dry Winter, and some are talking about reduced rains this year in Espírito Santo and parts of Minas Geraisthat could hurt production. There is plenty of rain in some areas this week, but drier weather is expected in the longer term forecast There are also reports of short crops in parts of Central America and some areas in South America due to the lack of farmer investment from the low prices.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.987 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 117.86 ct/lb. Brazil will get showers and storms each day, with best amounts and coverage in the second half of the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 134.00 March. Support is at 125.00, 124.00, and 122.00 March, and resistance is at 131.00, 133.00 and 134.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1700, 1680, and 1650 March, and resistance is at 1740, 1760, and 1770 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 02, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 252,096
: Positions :
: 38,243 87,126 62,587 95,278 87,108 41,515 6,662 237,622 243,483: 14,473 8,613
: Changes from: December 26, 2017 (Change in open interest: -3,098) :
: 2,131 -7,544 884 -5,237 2,547 490 763 -1,732 -3,350: -1,366 252
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.2 34.6 24.8 37.8 34.6 16.5 2.6 94.3 96.6: 5.7 3.4
: Total Traders: 505 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 159 153 162 132 110 27 16 409 370:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 01/02/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
135,124 83,488 57,386 6,531 6,919 5,233
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 61.8% 42.5% 4.8% 5.1% 3.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
161 57 45 11 9 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
9,777 36,665 9,040 2,298 1,880 13,908
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.2% 27.1% 6.7% 1.7% 1.4% 10.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
15 40 13 10 7 14
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,849 4,093
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.6% 3.0%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were a little lower in both New York and London in consolidation trading. It is possible that a correction to lower prices is coming, but the market could remain rather strong even if a correction does appear. The Crude Oil market is keeping an eye on Iran and Venezuela as both are major oil producers and both are in increasing political turmoil. Price action has been strong due to the strong demand for ethanol that has diverted some Brazil mill production away from Sugar. Mills in Brazil have decided to make more Ethanol as world Crude Oil and products prices have been very strong. Ideas are that these prices can continue strong as OPEC and Russia have agreed to keep production constrained compared to world demand. There are also ideas that index funds will add significantly to long positions in the rebalancing operations later this month.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature showers and storms each day, with best amounts and coverage over the second half of the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1590 and 1630 March. Support is at 1480, 1460, and 1420 March, and resistance is at 1520, 1550, and 1580 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 392.00, 391.00, and 388.00 March, and resistance is at 401.00, 410.00, and 420.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 02, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 886,464
: Positions :
: 128,064 176,811 163,939 294,976 451,517 227,712 28,364 814,690 820,632: 71,774 65,832
: Changes from: December 26, 2017 (Change in open interest: 15,917) :
: 10,951 -23,132 4,854 -6,612 30,859 -610 3,533 8,582 16,114: 7,334 -197
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.4 19.9 18.5 33.3 50.9 25.7 3.2 91.9 92.6: 8.1 7.4
: Total Traders: 243 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 70 56 82 76 76 24 15 213 194:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 01/02/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
82,429 41,543 50,432 8,895 6,801 2,365
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 50.4% 61.2% 10.8% 8.3% 2.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
134 49 47 8 9 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
15,775 12,877 4,073 4,640 1,012 1,560
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
19.1% 15.6% 4.9% 5.6% 1.2% 1.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
27 14 14 7 5 9
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,578 3,310
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.3% 4.0%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower in both New York and London. New York still appears to be putting a bottom together. London still displays a weaker chart pattern. A stronger US Dollar was negative, but the West African main harvest will start to wind down soon. Arrivals have been good in West Africa and are reported to be good in Southeast Asia so far this season. However, arrivals in West Africa have been behind year ago levels when they were expected to be above year ago levels. Prices are weak overall due to the ongoing harvest, but have found some good buying interest at current levels as some are now viewing the market as cheap. World supply ideas remain high.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get cry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are much higher today at 3.506 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1870, 1850, and 1840 March, with resistance at 1930, 1950, and 2000 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1330, 1320, and 1300 March, with resistance at 1390, 1450, and 1460 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 02, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 311,039
: Positions :
: 63,897 83,087 61,578 117,842 140,374 46,103 15,794 289,420 300,833: 21,619 10,206
: Changes from: December 26, 2017 (Change in open interest: 6,052) :
: 891 -2,695 5,099 -1,328 4,072 2,196 361 6,858 6,837: -806 -785
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.5 26.7 19.8 37.9 45.1 14.8 5.1 93.0 96.7: 7.0 3.3
: Total Traders: 290 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 112 83 88 52 42 25 7 239 182:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 01/02/2018
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
339,162 229,560 172,337 18,683 17,800 20,188
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 67.7% 50.8% 5.5% 5.2% 6.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
166 52 41 16 7 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
11,465 72,775 24,584 5,384 1,050 26,484
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.4% 21.5% 7.2% 1.6% 0.3% 7.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
21 37 17 12 8 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
2,814 3,945
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.8% 1.2%

DJ CMAA Spot Cocoa Bean And Price Indications – Jan 8
Ex-dock or warehouse U.S. Eastern Seaboard North of Hatteras, in U.S. dollars
per metric ton. Settling price for January 5, 2018. All pricing is considered
nominal. Source: Cocoa Merchants Association of America.
N/A denotes not available.
Type Differential/ Price
Ratio
Main Crop Ghana, Grade 1 350 2,248.00
Main Crop Ivory Coast, Grade 1 250 2,148.00
Main Crop Nigerian, Grade 1 200 2,098.00
Ecuador 200 2,098.00
Sanchez f.a.q. NA
PPP Natural African Type Carton Cocoa Butter 2.96 5,618.08
Cocoa Press Cake – Natural 10/12% Butterfat 0.76 1,450.00
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2018

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