Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
DJ U.S. November Coffee, Cocoa Imports-Jan 5
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Nov 2017—- —-Oct 2017—-
-coffee kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coffee, unroasted 102,065,396 225,054,198 110,052,571 242,665,919
coffee, roasted 8,298,678 18,298,585 7,363,750 16,237,069
instant 3,670,131 8,092,639 4,153,821 9,159,175
cocoa beans 14,987,905 33,048,331 7,178,181 15,827,889
10 lbs or over 2,096,328 4,622,403 3,153,310 6,953,049
for retail candy 0 0 0 0
cocoa butter 9,912,348 21,856,727 8,953,492 19,742,450
not defatted 2,202,566 4,856,658 2,862,325 6,311,427
defatted 4,930,675 10,872,138 4,887,727 10,777,438
unsweetened 8,590,273 18,941,552 10,906,029 24,047,794
sweetened 46,424 102,365 123,025 271,270
coating 2,810,481 6,197,111 2,606,184 5,746,636
chocolate 10,748,561 23,700,577 11,063,827 24,395,739
General Comments: Cotton was higher on buying that surfaced once the US Dollar started to turn lower. Trends remain up for now, but the Bulls need to keep the rally going or some will start to talk about the potential for a doublé top in the March contract. Producers remain limited sellers at best. Prices can remain generally strong. Mills are caught unpriced on a lot of purchases. The On Call data from USDA each week has been given as a major reason to expect higher prices in the next month. Mills will have to pay up again to get covered due to the recent rally. The lower quality of the overall crop seems to be the biggest effects from the hurricanes seen during the growing season and then the freeze in the west at the tail end of the growing season. The demand for quality Cotton appears strong, and the cash market is having some trouble meeting that demand. So, buyers are turning to the futures market to ensure that they can get good quality Cotton.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast should get mostly dry conditions, although all areas will get light rain on Sunday or Monday. Temperatures should be below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be mostly below normal today and tomorrow, then will trend to above normal. The USDA average price is now 76.71 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 47,655 bales, from 47,589 bales yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 193,900 bales this year and 93,200 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 5,500 bales this year and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 8000 March. Support is at 7800, 7720, and 7700 March, with resistance of 7940, 7960, and 8020 March.
DJ U.S. November Cotton Exports-Jan 5
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Nov 17 Oct 17 Sep 17 Nov 16(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 3,788,599 915,820 1,504,125 562,013
1 to 1 1/8 inch 70,082,315 43,114,062 51,346,510 81,454,531
upland 1 1/8 and over 73,806,219 50,921,846 69,340,485 89,080,440
Amer Pima, over 1 1/8 inc 10,622,850 2,383,673 3,398,318 9,207,578
All cotton 158,299,983 97,335,401 125,589,438 180,304,562
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Nov 17 Oct 17 Sep 17 Nov 16(*)
Upland, under 1 inch 17,401 4,206 6,908 2,581
1 to 1 1/8 inch 321,885 198,021 235,833 374,118
upland 1 1/8 and over 338,989 233,882 318,478 409,143
Amer Pima, over 1 1/8 inc 48,790 10,948 15,608 42,290
All cotton 727,066 447,058 576,828 828,132
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower as the cold spell started to move north and away from Florida without causing much apparent damage if any damage at all. It did not get cold enough to damage crops, but the crop remains very small, anyway. Overall weather conditions are considered good in Florida at this time, with mostly dry conditions, but with cooler temperatures that could help acid formation. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors and the fresh fruit packers. Trees in Florida that are still alive now are showing fruit of good sizes, although many have lost a lot of the fruit. Florida producers are actively harvesting and performing maintenance on land and trees. Processors mostly getting field run fruit. FCOJ processors are also getting imports from Brazil, Mexico, and Europe
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather and below normal temperatures. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that no January deliveries have been posted yet.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 144.00 and 151.00 March. Support is at 137.00, 134.00, and 132.00 March, with resistance at 142.00, 145.00, and 148.00 March.
General Comments: Futures were lower in early trading, then rallied as the US Dollar moved lower against most other world currencies. The cash market seemed mostly quiet due to the early price weakness. Reports of generally good growing conditions at this time in Brazil provided the best reasons to sell, but reduced exports from Brazil provide a good reason to buy. Ideas are that Vietnam also has a lot of Coffee to sell. Internal prices in Vietnam remain at high levels compared to London, and were stable last week. Many are concerned about the potential for reduced Brazil production due to earlier drought and the cold and dry Winter, and some are talking about reduced rains this year in Espiritu Santo and parts of Minas Geraisthat could hurt production. There is plenty of rain in some areas this week, but drier weather is expected in the longer term forecast There are also reports of short crops in parts of Central America and some areas in South America due to the lack of farmer investment from the low prices.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.982 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 118.53 ct/lb. Brazil will get showers and storms each day into next week. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 134.00 March. Support is at 125.00, 124.00, and 122.00 March, and resistance is at 131.00, 133.00 and 134.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1700, 1680, and 1650 March, and resistance is at 1740, 1760, and 1770 March.
General Comments: Futures were a little lower in both New York and London in consolidation trading. An early push lower met with some speculative buying interest as the US Dollar moved lower. The buying was not enough to push prices into positive territory by the close. It is possible that a correction to lower prices is coming, but the market could remain rather strong even if a correction does appear. The Crude Oil market is keeping an eye on Iran and Venezuela as both are major oil producers and both are in increasing political turmoil. Price action has been strong due to the strong demand for ethanol that has diverted some Brazil mill production away from Sugar. Mills in Brazil have decided to make more Ethanol as world Crude Oil and products prices have been very strong. Ideas are that these prices can continue strong as OPEC and Russia have agreed to keep production constrained compared to world demand. There are also ideas that index funds will add significantly to long positions in the rebalancing operations later this month.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature showers and storms each day into next week. Temperatures should be near to above normal
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1590 and 1630 March. Support is at 1480, 1460, and 1420 March, and resistance is at 1550, 1580, and 1600 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 392.00, 391.00, and 388.00 March, and resistance is at 401.00, 410.00, and 420.00 March.
General Comments: Futures closed unchanged in New York and a little lower in London. New York still appears to be putting a bottom together. London made new lows for the week and recovered late in the trading day, but still closed lower. London still displays a weaker chart pattern and could find some selling interest again today. A weaker US Dollar was supportive and the West African main harvest will start to wind down soon. Arrivals have been good in West Africa and are reported to be good in Southeast Asia so far this season. However, arrivals in West Africa have been behind year ago levels when they were expected to be above year ago levels. Prices are weak overall due to the ongoing harvest, but have found some good buying interest at current levels as some are now viewing the market as cheap. World supply ideas remain high.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get cry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are a little higher today at 3.438 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1870, 1850, and 1840 March, with resistance at 1930, 1950, and 2000 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1330, 1320, and 1300 March, with resistance at 1390, 1450, and 1460 March.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.
The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2018
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