Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher in consolidation trading. Trends remain up for now, but the bullish chart formation got hurt for the short term with the Tuesday price action. Producers remain limited sellers at best. Ideas are that prices can remain generally strong. Mills are caught unpriced on a lot of purchases and the market knows this. The On Call data from USDA each week has been given as a major reason to expect higher prices in the next month. Mills will have to pay up again to get covered due to the recent rally. The lower quality of the overall crop seems to be the biggest effects from the hurricanes seen during the growing season and then the freeze in the west at the tail end of the growing season. Some traders say that USDA is seriously underestimating demand for the fiber, while the others look to the high USDA ending stocks estimates and suggest that any demand can be easily met.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast should get mostly dry conditions, although coastal Atlantic areas will get rain and Snow today and all areas will get light rain on Sunday or Monday. Temperatures should be below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be mostly below normal today and tomorrow, then will trend to above normal. The USDA average price is now 75.69 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 47,589 ba1es, from 47,597 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 8000 March. Support is at 7720, 7700, and 7670 March, with resistance of 7900, 7940, and 7960 March.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher as the current cold spell in there Eastern two thirds of the US caused some rain and freezing precipitation in northern sections of Florida. It did not get cold enough to damage crops, but the crop remains very small, anyway. Overall weather conditions are considered good in Florida at this time, with mostly dry conditions, but with cooler temperatures that could help acid formation. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors and the fresh fruit packers. Trees in Florida that are still alive now are showing fruit of good sizes, although many have lost a lot of the fruit. Florida producers are actively harvesting and preforming maintenance on land and trees. Processors mostly getting field run fruit. FCOJ processors are also getting imports from Brazil, Mexico, and Europe
Overnight News: Florida should get rain today, then mostly dry weather and below normal temperatures. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that no January deliveries have been posted yet.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 144.00 and 151.00 March. Support is at 137.00, 134.00, and 132.00 March, with resistance at 142.00, 145.00, and 148.00 March.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack – Jan 3
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 12/23/2017
Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
12/23/2017 12/24/2016 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 174.97 178.54 -2.0%
Retail/Institutional 7.56 7.59 -0.4%
Total 182.54 186.13 -1.9%
Pack
Bulk 3.49 6.20 -43.7%
Retail/Institutional 1.69 1.37 23.4%
Total Pack 5.17 7.56 -31.6%
Reprocessed -3.19 -4.41 -27.6%
Pack from Fruit 1.98 3.15 -37.1%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.22 0.50 -55.4%
Imports – Foreign 2.39 10.29 -76.8%
Domestic Receipts 0.09 0.31 -71.4%
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entit – – NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ – – NC
Reprocessed FCTJ – 0.02 -100.0%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 177.97 191.44 -7.0%
Retail/Institutional 9.25 8.96 3.2%
Total 187.21 200.40 -6.6%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 3.49 6.41 -45.6%
Exports 0.16 2.01 -92.0%
Total (Bulk) 3.65 8.42 -56.7%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 1.46 1.87 -22.1%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.46 1.87 -22.1%
Total Movement 5.10 10.29 -50.4%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 174.32 183.02 -4.8%
Retail/Institutional 7.79 7.09 9.9%
Ending Inventory 182.11 190.11 -4.2%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
23-Dec-17 24-Dec-16 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 185.02 212.24 -12.8%
Retail/Institutional 7.20 6.78 6.1%
Total 192.21 219.03 -12.2%
Pack
Bulk 23.78 38.83 -38.8%
Retail/Institutional 16.64 18.67 -10.9%
Total Pack 40.42 57.50 -29.7%
Reprocessed -26.43 -42.53 -37.8%
Pack from Fruit 13.98 14.97 -6.6%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 1.09 -1.42 -23.3%
Imports – Foreign 43.06 45.07 -4.5%
Domestic Receipts 2.32 0.40 477.7%
Receipts of Florida Produ 0.03 0.67 -96.1%
from Non-Reporting Entit 0.13 0.09 46.0%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ – 0.27 -100.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 228.98 253.63 -9.7%
Retail/Institutional 23.84 25.45 -6.4%
Total 252.81 279.08 -9.4%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 52.55 55.33 -5.0%
Domestic 2.11 15.28 -86.2%
Exports 54.66 70.61 -22.6%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 16.04 18.36 -12.6%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 16.04 18.36 -12.6%
Total Movement 70.70 88.97 -20.5%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 174.32 183.02 -4.8%
Retail/Institutional 7.79 7.09 9.9%
Ending Inventory 182.11 190.11 -4.2%

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower in correction trading in New York, but closed a little higher in London. Reports of generally good growing conditions at this time in Brazil provided the best reasons to sell, but reduced exports from Brazil provide a good reason to buy. Ideas are that Vietnam also has a lot of Coffee to sell. Internal prices in Vietnam remain at high levels compared to London, and were stable last week. The situation seems little changed in Latin America. There is some demand around, but offers are hard to find. Buyers do not seem inclined to raise differential bids to secure supplies, and might be buying enough to avoid doing that. Many are concerned about the potential for reduced Brazil production due to earlier drought and the cold and dry Winter, and some are talking about reduced rains this year in Espiritu Santo and parts of Minas Gerais that could hurt production. There is plenty of rain in some areas this week, but drier weather is expected in the longer term forecast There are also reports of short crops in parts of Central America and some areas in South America due to the lack of farmer investment from the low prices.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are sharply lower today and are about 1.989 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 117.93 ct/lb. Brazil will get showers and storms each day into next week. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 134.00 March. Support is at 125.00, 124.00, and 122.00 March, and resistance is at 131.00, 133.00 and 134.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 1700, 1680, and 1650 March, and resistance is at 1740, 1760, and 1770 March.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were mixed in New York and slightly higher in London in consolidation trading. It is possible that a correction to lower prices is coming, but the market could remain Rather strong even if a correction does appear. The Crude Oil market is keeping an eye on Iran and Venezuela as both are major oil producers and both are in increasing political turmoil. Price action has been strong due to the strong demand for ethanol that has diverted some Brazil mill production away from Sugar. Mills in Brazil have decided to make more Ethanol as world Crude Oil and products prices have been very strong. Ideas are that these prices can continue strong as OPEC and Russia have agreed to keep production constrained compared to world demand. There are also ideas that index funds will add significantly to long positions in the rebalancing operations later this month.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature showers and storms each day into next week. Temperatures should be near to above normal
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1590 and 1630 March. Support is at 1480, 1460, and 1420 March, and resistance is at 1550, 1580, and 1600 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 392.00, 391.00, and 385.00 March, and resistance is at 410.00, 420.00, and 422.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower and New York gave back most of the gains from Tuesday. New York still appears to be putting a bottom together. London still displays a weaker chart pattern, but overall trends in London appear to be sideways. A weaker US Dollar was supportive and the West African main harvest will start to wind down soon. Arrivals have been good in West Africa and are reported to be good in Southeast Asia so far this season. However, arrivals in West Africa have been behind year ago levels when they were expected to be above year ago levels. Prices are weak overall due to the ongoing harvest, but have found some good buying interest at current levels as some are now viewing the market as cheap. World supply ideas remain high.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get cry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are a little lower today at 3.436 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1870, 1850, and 1810 March, with resistance at 1950, 2000, and 2030 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1350, 1330, and 1300 March, with resistance at 1420, 1450, and 1460 March.

 

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The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

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