About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 4
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL January Jan. 05, 2018 300 Jan 02, 2018
ROUGH RICE January Jan. 05, 2018 3 Dec 29, 2017
SOYBEAN January Jan. 05, 2018 21 Nov 30, 2017

WHEAT
General Comments: US markets closed higher again yesterday on reports of very cold temperatures in the Great Plains. Hard Red Winter Wheat was the strongest market. The cold has likely damaged some crops in the Great Plains, and mostly in Kansas. It also remains dry in most of the Great Plains. The crops in the region are not well established, and the cold has come with little snow cover to protect the crops. Less concern is heard about Midwest crops. It has been just as cold, but the crops should be in better condition due to some snow. The daily charts show that Winter Wheat trends are turning up. The weekly charts show that winter wheat price trends are sideways. The market is also noting dry conditions in western Kansas and other parts of the western Great Plains and the La Nina Winter weather forecast. In fact, a drought has developed in the region and could become serious. The crop has not established itself well due to the dry weather. The market continues to be worried about Russia and its ability to control the world Wheat offer and price. Russia is still exporting a lot of Wheat and has said that it expects another very big crop.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should trend to above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather, but light precipitation is possible on Saturday. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average much below normal in the east and above normal in the west.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 462 and 486 March. Support is at 428, 424, and 421 March, with resistance at 443, 445, and 450 March. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 446, 462, and 464 March. Support is at 427, 424, and 418 March, with resistance at 442, 451, and 486 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 613, 611, and 608 March, and resistance is at 625, 632, and 646 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice prices closed lower again on what appeared to be mostly follow through speculative selling. The charts show that prices for the March contract are testing the November lows, and there does not seem to be a good reason around for the prices to go lower. However, the cash market remains Rather quiet so a further move lower is possible. Futures market fundamentals have not really changed, but traders are leaving the market as the open interest has been dropping. The situation for Rice remains somewhat bullish at this time. Mercosur countries have had less to offer, and the US has benefited from the reduced competition. Futures remain undervalued in relationship to the US domestic cash market, but domestic cash markets are reported quiet.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather, but light rain is expected on Sunday. Temperatures should be below to much below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1142 and 1134 March. Support is at 1161, 1152, and 1140 March, with resistance at 1170, 1178, and 1180 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed unchanged to a little higher and chart trends appear to be turning up on the daily charts. Overall trends remain mostly sideways for now. There are hopes for increased Corn demand from the export market due to cheap prices, and ethanol demand remains good. Ideas are that the current cold weather can create additional feed demand as more feed is needed for weight gain in the extreme cold and as some Winter Wheat in the region was lost due to Winterkill. The trade continues to monitor the dry weather in southern Brazil and Argentina. Forecasts for this week are mostly hot and dry. Some crop losses are increasingly possible and the La Nina conditions imply short soil moisture conditions for most of the growing season. Planting is late this year due to the dry weather, but has been rapid in the last couple of weeks. Ideas of big supplies and less than great demand keep pulling the market down fundamentally, but it has been the funds who have established a huge and near record short position in futures. They could cover part of this position this week and were the best buyers in the market yesterday. Farmers are not selling much Corn even in the last part of the harvest due to weak basis and futures price levels
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 351, 349, and 346 December, and resistance is at 354, 360, and 361 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 239, 236, and 233 March, and resistance is at 247, 253, and 257 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher again, with Soybean Oil the best performer on the day. Speculative short covering and ideas that Soybeans production in southern Brazil and Argentina are still suffering from dry weather remain features of the market. Speculators remain very short in Soybeans and Soybean Meal and could now cover at least part of these sales. It has been hot and dry in southern Brazil and Argentina areas, and forecasts for this week call for drier and hotter conditions again. US prices are now cheap enough that China is buying much more from the US, and it might continue to buy depending on the growing conditions the rest of the year in southern South America. Brazil has been able to capture more business that otherwise would have gone to the US due to the huge crop last year. However, US Soybeans are very well priced right now and demand news over the last couple of weeks has improved. Soybean Oil is expecting to see increased demand as the tariffs on imports from Argentina and Indonesia for vegetable oils and bio fuels becomes effective. Higher petroleum prices are also a support factor with all of the political problems in Venezuela and now Iran.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 963, 955, and 950 March, and resistance is at 970, 976, and 979 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 316.00, 315.00, and 312.00 March, and resistance is at 319.00, 322.00, and 326.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3500 and 3640 March. Support is at 3360, 3330, and 3300 March, with resistance at 3390, 3400, and 3430 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher again yesterday as the market watches Brazil and as vegetable oils worldwide are showing price strength. The market dropped a lot in price last week and there were a lot of ideas that it was oversold. Canola rallied on Malaysia and the US futures prices and the ongoing drier than normal weather in Argentina and southern Brazil that might hurt yields and production potential in affected areas. It remains very cold in the Prairies and farmers are not willing sellers. Farmers are storing crops now as the harvest is over and as they wait for higher prices, but elevators and crushers appear to have good supplies right now. Palm Oil was lower on some profit taking and other selling, mostly from speculators. The market has been strong recently due to good export demand. Speculators appeared to be the best buyers as chart trends turned up. Recent export data from the private surveyors showed that exports were above month ago levels for the first time in several months. Ideas are that production could be as strong as in any month in the last couple of years. There is a lot of talk that supplies are more than adequate for demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 485.00 March. Support is at 490.00, 485.00, and 484.00 January, with resistance at 496.00, 498.00, and 500.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2690 and 2830 March. Support is at 2550, 2510, and 2490 March, with resistance at 2610, 2630, and 2650 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Very cold with some chances for Snow from Thursday to Sunday.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
January 44 March 220 March 57 March 51 March minus 9 Jan
February 44 March 50 March 41 March
March 44 March 54 March 39 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua
January minus 22 March
February 73 March minus 22 March
March minus 22 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jan 3
Winnipeg–The following are the
closing cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 472.80 up 4.10
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 504.60 up 3.80
2 Can 491.60 up 3.80
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 520.60 up 3.80
2 Can 507.60 up 3.80
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 221.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 222.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – January 4
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 657.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 665.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 670.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 675.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 667.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 660.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb 667.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Mar 672.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 677.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 670.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 660.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 627.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 2,560 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 311.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0050)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 04
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 94,814 lots, or 3.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 3,060 3,066 3,050 3,060 3,054 3,061 7 1,512 7,512
Mar-18 3,138 3,138 3,126 3,131 3,138 3,133 -5 1,388 10,474
May-18 3,666 3,670 3,642 3,669 3,652 3,656 4 89,870 237,044
Jul-18 – – – 3,681 3,681 3,681 0 0 6
Sep-18 3,720 3,728 3,705 3,724 3,713 3,715 2 1,994 15,024
Nov-18 – – – 3,738 3,738 3,738 0 0 4
Jan-19 3,793 3,805 3,793 3,805 3,797 3,799 2 22 1,186
Mar-19 – – – 3,789 3,789 3,789 0 0 6
May-19 3,894 3,894 3,873 3,889 3,886 3,882 -4 28 64
Corn
Turnover: 395,160 lots, or 7.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 1,805 1,806 1,805 1,805 1,840 1,805 -35 410 8,294
Mar-18 1,819 1,819 1,792 1,805 1,803 1,799 -4 8,116 16,850
May-18 1,852 1,853 1,838 1,848 1,848 1,844 -4 348,308 1,053,578
Jul-18 1,837 1,838 1,831 1,838 1,840 1,835 -5 54 986
Sep-18 1,816 1,816 1,806 1,813 1,813 1,808 -5 37,522 271,794
Nov-18 1,807 1,808 1,804 1,808 1,810 1,806 -4 750 784
Soymeal
Turnover: 590,662 lots, or 16.35 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 2,782 2,850 2,782 2,820 2,842 2,810 -32 46 1,010
Mar-18 2,825 2,830 2,806 2,825 2,832 2,826 -6 15,332 4,450
May-18 2,774 2,775 2,761 2,770 2,774 2,767 -7 494,492 1,995,102
Jul-18 2,776 2,776 2,771 2,775 2,779 2,773 -6 50 710
Aug-18 2,756 2,763 2,756 2,763 2,760 2,758 -2 6 136
Sep-18 2,767 2,773 2,762 2,770 2,770 2,767 -3 80,698 311,310
Nov-18 2,778 2,778 2,771 2,775 2,779 2,774 -5 28 608
Dec-18 2,750 2,780 2,750 2,779 2,778 2,767 -11 10 10
Palm Oil
Turnover: 341,588 lots, or 18.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 5,170 5,182 4,918 5,166 5,122 5,158 36 168 4,436
Feb-18 5,242 5,242 5,242 5,242 5,202 5,242 40 4 4
Mar-18 – – – 5,284 5,244 5,284 40 0 2
Apr-18 5,322 5,322 5,322 5,322 5,310 5,322 12 2 26
May-18 5,366 5,384 5,342 5,356 5,318 5,362 44 319,442 480,464
Jun-18 5,396 5,396 5,396 5,396 5,396 5,396 0 2 8
Jul-18 – – – 5,316 5,316 5,316 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,332 5,332 5,332 0 0 2
Sep-18 5,386 5,404 5,368 5,378 5,350 5,386 36 21,970 61,660
Oct-18 – – – 5,324 5,290 5,324 34 0 0
Nov-18 – – – 5,366 5,332 5,366 34 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 5,418 5,382 5,418 36 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 292,050 lots, or 16.98 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 5,440 5,440 5,380 5,436 5,380 5,404 24 1,994 7,780
Mar-18 5,484 5,592 5,484 5,592 5,474 5,536 62 34 50
May-18 5,802 5,826 5,784 5,824 5,774 5,804 30 270,204 845,190
Jul-18 – – – 5,768 5,768 5,768 0 0 6
Aug-18 5,928 5,928 5,878 5,878 5,832 5,902 70 4 10
Sep-18 5,948 5,974 5,932 5,970 5,926 5,952 26 19,808 68,378
Nov-18 6,016 6,016 6,016 6,016 6,014 6,016 2 2 10
Dec-18 5,854 6,006 5,854 6,006 6,056 5,930 -126 4 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2018

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322         A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2018