About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower on some long liquidation selling before the long weekend. It was another strong week as futures made new contract highs on Thursday. It was most likely a combination of fund and industry buying that pushed futures higher during the week. Producers remain limited sellers at best. Chart patterns are bullish overall. Mills are caught unpriced on a lot of purchases and the market knows this. The On Call data from USDA each week has been given as a major reason to expect higher prices in the next month. Mills will have to pay up again to get covered due to the recent rally. They were very unpriced in the December contract, and that month closed with a sharp rally. The lower quality of the overall crop seems to be the biggest effects from the hurricanes seen during the growing season and then the freeze in the west at the tail end of the growing season. Some traders say that USDA is seriously underestimating demand for the fiber, while the others look to the high USDA ending stocks estimates and suggest that any demand can be easily met. The demand bulls are winning the battle of ideas and price right now even with weaker export sales reported last Friday by USDA in its weekly reports.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be mostly below normal. The USDA average price is now 76.24 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 47,601 bales, from 47,601 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 8000 March. Support is at 7800, 7720, and 7700 March, with resistance of 7900, 7940, and 7960 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 26, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 333,773
: Positions :
: 117,376 19,058 58,011 56,650 232,044 84,259 12,623 316,296 321,736: 17,477 12,037
: Changes from: December 19, 2017 (Change in open interest: 15,999) :
: 7,551 1,271 6,184 2,482 8,147 2,187 590 18,405 16,192: -2,406 -193
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 35.2 5.7 17.4 17.0 69.5 25.2 3.8 94.8 96.4: 5.2 3.6
: Total Traders: 326 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 144 64 89 50 76 28 13 270 204:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ USDA Volume Of Cotton Classed Report – Dec 29
Data quoted in bales for week ending Dec 28. Totals may not add due
to rounding. * denotes data withheld to avoid disclosure of individual
producer information. Source: USDA
Weekly Season Weekly Season
Southeast 157,542 3,876,425 Southwest 396,262 6,570,458
NC 15,892 707,650 Okla 24,854 303,430
SC 20,826 350,868 Texas 365,644 6,217,556
Ga 82,602 1,931,841 Kansas 5,764 49,472
Ala 26,207 623,922
Fla 5,655 103,218 Far West 25,870 430,590
Va 6,360 158,926 NM 1,843 25,448
Ariz 19,223 244,933
Delta 63,584 4,064,619 Calif 4,804 160,209
Miss 27,413 1,201,776
Tenn 3,741 716,945 Pima 30,248 470,264
Mo 15,759 675,676 Other 0 0
Ark 16,671 1,062,527 Total US 673,506 15,412,356
La * – 407,695 pct tenderable 57.1 72.6

DJ On-Call Cotton – Dec 29
As of Dec 22. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Mar 18 53,130 55,139 -2,009 8,358 8,944 -586
May 18 31,394 30,931 463 1,025 1,054 -29
Jul 18 33,336 31,971 1,365 2,539 2,504 35
Oct 18 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 18 18,993 18,521 472 9,731 9,672 59
Mar 19 8,914 6,387 2,527 533 533 0
May 19 2,010 1,635 375 10 10 0
Jul 19 2,297 1,747 550 617 617 0
Dec 19 2,309 2,309 0 5,377 4,979 398
Mar 20 842 842 0 146 146 0
Total 153,225 149,936 3,743 28,336 28,482 -123
Open Change
Int
Mar 18 173,309 171,049 2,260
May 18 50,115 50,197 -82
Jul 18 18,179 14,521 3,658
Oct 18 1 1 0
Dec 18 30,349 28,714 1,635
Mar 19 674 561 113
May 19 43 61 -18
Jul 19 369 337 32
Dec 19 847 715 132
Mar 20 0 0 0
Total 273,886 266,156 7,730

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher on Friday and a little higher for the week. The market has now given back the gains it had in reaction to the damage caused by Hurricane Irma and is diving further into support established last August. Overall weather conditions are considered good in Florida at this time, with mostly dry and warm conditions. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors and the fresh fruit packers. Trees in Florida that are still alive now are showing fruit of good sizes, although many have lost a lot of the fruit. Florida producers are actively harvesting and performing maintenance on land and trees. Processors mostly getting packing house eliminations along with field run fruit. FCOJ processors are also getting imports from Brazil, Mexico, and Europe. Funecitrus, the Brazilian industry association, now estimates oranges production at 385.6 million boxes, up 3% from the previous estimate and up from 245.31 million boxes in the previous year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 134.00, 132.00, and 131.00 March, with resistance at 139.00, 142.00, and 145.00 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 26, 2017
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 13,004 :
: Positions :
: 6,254 6,308 1,031 0 1 564 2,417 64 787 761 2,385 :
: Changes from: December 19, 2017 :
: 1,257 -410 -69 0 1 -671 997 31 173 131 491 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 48.1 48.5 7.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 18.6 0.5 6.1 5.8 18.3 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 68 :
: 22 16 4 0 . 5 11 . 10 12 13 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher again in New York and a little higher in London in holiday trading. Speculators are very short the market in New York and appear to be covering part of these positions before the end of the year. Reports of generally good growing conditions at this time in Brazil provided the best reasons to sell. Ideas are that Vietnam al;so has a lot of Coffee to sell. Even so, the accounting office of the government there estimates that 2017 exports will be 20% less than in 2016. It estimates exports this year at 1.4 million tons, or 23.3 million bags. December exports are estimated at 140,000 tons, from 100,400 tons in November. News was hard to find due to the end of the year, but there was talk of a big crop that will need to be sold in Vietnam. Internal prices in Vietnam remain at high levels compared to London, but were weaker last week. The situation seems little changed in Latin America. There is some demand a round, but offers are hard to find. Many are concerned about the potential for reduced Brazil production due to earlier drought and the cold and dry Winter, although some exporters suggest that the loss potential has been greatly overestimated. There is plenty of rain in some areas now There are also reports of short crops in parts of Central America and some areas in South America due to the lack of farmer investment from the low prices.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are a little higher today and are about 1.973 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 114.33 ct/lb. Brazil will get showers and storms each day into next week. Temperatures should be variable. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 128.00 and 134.00 March. Support is at 124.00, 122.00, and 120.00 March, and resistance is at 127.00, 133.00 and 134.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1700, 1680, and 1650 March, and resistance is at 1740, 1760, and 1770 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 26, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 255,194
: Positions :
: 36,112 94,670 61,703 100,515 84,561 41,024 5,899 239,354 246,833: 15,840 8,361
: Changes from: December 19, 2017 (Change in open interest: 3,160) :
: 1,612 2,109 -5,633 7,598 5,740 -178 429 3,399 2,644: -239 515
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.2 37.1 24.2 39.4 33.1 16.1 2.3 93.8 96.7: 6.2 3.3
: Total Traders: 517 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 160 164 152 133 106 29 17 406 373:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were higher last week and New York futures are not close to important resistance areas on the daily and weekly charts. Price action has been strong due to the strong demand for ethanol that has diverted some Brazil mill production away from Sugar. Mills in Brazil have decided to make more Ethanol as world Crude Oil and products prices have been very strong. Ideas are that these prices can continue strong as OPEC and Russia have agreed to keep production constrained compared to world demand. There are also ideas that index funds will add significantly to long positions in the rebalancing operations later this month.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature showers and storms each day into next week. Temperatures should be on both sides of normal
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1590 and 1630 March. Support is at 1480, 1460, and 1420 March, and resistance is at 1530, 1550, and 1580 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 385.00, 382.00, and 367.00 March, and resistance is at 395.00, 398.00, and 399.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 26, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 870,547
: Positions :
: 117,113 199,943 159,085 301,588 420,658 228,322 24,832 806,107 804,518: 64,440 66,029
: Changes from: December 19, 2017 (Change in open interest: -29,212) :
: -846 -23,574 -10,667 -11,429 8,281 -3,264 1,685 -26,206 -24,275: -3,006 -4,937
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.5 23.0 18.3 34.6 48.3 26.2 2.9 92.6 92.4: 7.4 7.6
: Total Traders: 241 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 60 65 80 77 77 23 15 208 196:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower and finished the year on a weak note. Trends are sideways down in New York and have turned down in London for the short-term. Weekly charts show that New York might be forming a bottom. Arrivals have been good in West Africa and are reported to be good in Southeast Asia so far this season. However, arrivals in West Africa have been behind year ago levels when they were expected to be above year ago levels. Prices are weak overall due to the ongoing harvest, but have found some good buying interest at current levels as some are now viewing the market as cheap. Current prices in New York are as low as they have been for at least five years. World supply ideas remain high. Harvest reports show good production will be seen this year in West Africa. The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East Africa is getting better rains now. Good conditions are still seen in Southeast Asia and harvest should be strong now amid mostly dry weather.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get cry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.410 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1870, 1850, and 1810 March, with resistance at 1940, 1950, and 2000 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1360 March. Support is at 1350, 1330, and 1300 March, with resistance at 1400, 1420, and 1450 March.

DJ CMAA Spot Cocoa Bean And Price Indications – Jan 2
Data for December 29, 2017
Ex-dock or warehouse U.S. Eastern Seaboard North of Hatteras, in U.S. dollars
per metric ton. Settling price for December 29, 2017. All pricing is considered
nominal. Source: Cocoa Merchants Association of America.
N/A denotes not available.
Type Differential/ Price
Ratio
Main Crop Ghana, Grade 1 325 2,217.00
Main Crop Ivory Coast, Grade 1 220 2,112.00
Main Crop Nigerian, Grade 1 175 2,067.00
Ecuador 185 2,077.00
Sanchez f.a.q. 220 2,112.00
PPP Natural African Type Carton Cocoa Butter 2.90 5,486.80
Cocoa Press Cake – Natural 10/12% Butterfat 0.77 1,450.00
Data for December 22, 2017
Ex-dock or warehouse U.S. Eastern Seaboard North of Hatteras, in U.S. dollars
per metric ton. Settling price for December 22, 2017. All pricing is considered
nominal. Source: Cocoa Merchants Association of America.
N/A denotes not available.
Type Differential/ Price
Ratio
Main Crop Ghana, Grade 1 348 2,156.50
Main Crop Ivory Coast, Grade 1 235 2,044.00
Main Crop Nigerian, Grade 1 193 2,001.50
Ecuador 193 2,001.50
Sanchez f.a.q. 235 2,044.00
PPP Natural African Type Carton Cocoa Butter 2.98 5,291.33
Cocoa Press Cake – Natural 10/12% Butterfat 0.80 1,450.00

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 26, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 304,987
: Positions :
: 63,006 85,782 56,479 119,170 136,302 43,908 15,433 282,562 293,996: 22,425 10,990
: Changes from: December 19, 2017 (Change in open interest: 12,562) :
: 3,982 6,707 4,140 4,387 1,393 -603 167 11,907 12,408: 654 154
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.7 28.1 18.5 39.1 44.7 14.4 5.1 92.6 96.4: 7.4 3.6
: Total Traders: 298 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 117 89 87 50 39 25 8 241 185:
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – an Employee Owned Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322         A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2018