Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

General Comments: Cotton was higher and made new highs for the move as bullish traders started to buy again. It was most likely a combination of fund and industry buying that pushed futures higher. Producers remain limited sellers at best. Chart patterns are bullish overall. Mills are caught unpriced on a lot of purchases and the market knows this. This data has been given as a major reason to expect higher prices in the next month. Mills will have to pay up again to get covered due to the recent rally. They were very unpriced in the December contract, and that month closed with a sharp rally. The lower quality of the overall crop seems to be the biggest effects from the hurricanes seen during the growing season and then the freeze in the west at the tail end of the growing season. Some traders say that USDA is seriously underestimating demand for the fiber, while the others look to the high USDA ending stocks estimates and suggest that any demand can be easily met. The demand bulls are winning the battle of ideas and price right now.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast should get mostly dry conditions, but precipitation is expected on Sunday. Temperatures should be below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be mostly below normal, but above normal on Friday and Saturday. The USDA average price is now 76.61 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 47,601 ba01s, from 47,601 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 7900 and 8000 March. Support is at 7800, 7720, and 7700 March, with resistance of 7900, 7960, and 8020 March.

General Comments: FCOJ closed lower once again, and the market has now given back the gains it had in reaction to the damage caused by Hurricane Irma and is diving further into support established last August. Overall weather conditions are considered good in Florida at this time, with mostly dry and warm conditions. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors and the fresh fruit packers. Trees in Florida that are still alive now are showing fruit of good sizes, although many have lost a lot of the fruit. Florida producers are actively harvesting and performing maintenance on land and trees. Processors mostly getting packing house eliminations along with field run fruit. FCOJ processors are also getting imports from Brazil, Mexico, and Europe. Funecitrus, the Brazilian industry association, now estimates oranges production at 385.6 million boxes, up 3% from the previous estimate and up from 245.31 million boxes in the previous year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives. Support is at 131.00, 130.00, and 128.00 January, with resistance at 135.00, 140.00, and 142.00 January.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack – Dec 27
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 12/16/2017
Current Week Last
Week Season
12/16/2017 12/17/2016 % Change
Carry Over
Bulk 174.12 174.51 -0.2%
Retail/Institutional 7.48 7.13 4.9%
Total 181.61 181.65 0.0%
Bulk 3.70 9.40 -60.7%
Retail/Institutional 1.37 1.90 -27.8%
Total Pack 5.07 11.30 -55.1%
Reprocessed -2.40 -6.41 -62.5%
Pack from Fruit 2.67 4.89 -45.5%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.10 -0.17 -39.7%
Imports – Foreign 4.34 6.22 -30.2%
Domestic Receipts 0.09 – NA
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entity – – NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ – 0.01 -100.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ – 0.01 -100.0%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 179.95 183.56 -2.0%
Retail/Institutional 8.86 9.03 -2.0%
Total 188.81 192.60 -2.0%
Domestic 4.87 4.77 2.1%
Exports 0.11 0.26 -57.7%
Total (Bulk) 4.98 5.03 -1.0%
Domestic 1.29 1.44 -10.3%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 1.29 1.44 -10.3%
Total Movement 6.27 6.47 -3.0%
Bulk 174.97 178.54 -2.0%
Retail/Institutional 7.56 7.59 -0.4%
Ending Inventory 182.54 186.13 -1.9%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
16-Dec-17 17-Dec-16 % Change
Carry Over
Bulk 185.02 212.24 -12.8%
Retail/Institutional 7.20 6.78 6.1%
Total 192.21 219.03 -12.2%
Bulk 20.29 32.64 -37.8%
Retail/Institutional 14.95 17.30 -13.6%
Total Pack 35.24 49.94 -29.4%
Reprocessed -23.24 -38.12 -39.0%
Pack from Fruit 12.00 11.82 1.5%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.87 -1.92 -54.8%
Imports – Foreign 40.67 34.77 17.0%
Domestic Receipts 2.23 0.09 2299.9%
Receipts of Florida Product 0.03 0.67 -96.1%
from Non-Reporting Entity 0.13 0.09 46.0%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ – 0.26 -100.0%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 225.99 240.73 -6.1%
Retail/Institutional 22.15 24.09 -8.0%
Total 248.14 264.81 -6.3%
Bulk 49.07 48.92 0.3%
Domestic 1.95 13.27 -85.3%
Exports 51.01 62.19 -18.0%
Total (Bulk)
Domestic 14.59 16.49 -11.6%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 14.59 16.49 -11.6%
Total Movement 65.60 78.68 -16.6%
Bulk 174.97 178.54 -2.0%
Retail/Institutional 7.56 7.59 -0.4%
Ending Inventory 182.54 186.13 -1.9%

General Comments: Futures were higher again in New York and a little lower in London in holiday trading. Speculators are very short the market in New York and appear to be covering part of these positions before the end of the year. Reports of generally good growing conditions at this time in Brazil provided the best reasons to sell. Even so, the accounting office of the government there estimates that 2017 exports will be 20% less than in 2016. It estimates exports this year at 1.4 million tons, or 23.3 million bags. December exports are estimated at 140,000 tons, from 100,400 tons in November. News was hard to find due to the end of the year, but there was talk of a big crop that will need to be sold in Vietnam. Internal prices in Vietnam remain at high levels compared to London, but were weaker last week. The situation seems little changed in Latin America. There is some demand a round, but offers are hard to find. Many are concerned about the potential for reduced Brazil production due to earlier drought and the cold and dry Winter, although some exporters suggest that the loss potential has been greatly overestimated. There is plenty of rain in some areas now There are also reports of short crops in parts of Central America and some areas in South America due to the lack of farmer investment from the low prices.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are unchanged today and are about 1.967 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 114.33 ct/lb. Brazil will get showers and storms each day into next week. Temperatures should be variable. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 128.00 and 134.00 March. Support is at 122.00, 120.00, and 118.00 March, and resistance is at 125.00, 126.00 and 127.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1700, 1680, and 1650 January, and resistance is at 1750, 1780, and 1800 January.

General Comments: Futures were higher in both New York and London on what appeared to be some speculative short covering tied to profit taking. A lot of traders want to close books for the year and are liquidating positions in all markets. There was not much in the way of news, but there are ideas that the market has found an important low. Some funds and other speculators appeared to be buying to set profits and losses for the end of the year. Price action has been disappointing due to the strong demand for ethanol that has diverted some Brazil mill production away from Sugar. Mills in Brazil have decided to make more Ethanol as world Crude Oil and products prices have been very strong. Ideas are that these prices can continue strong.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature showers and storms each day into next week. Temperatures should be on both sides of normal
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1490, 1560, and 1590 March. Support is at 1480, 1460, and 1420 March, and resistance is at 1480, 1510, and 1530 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 385.00, 382.00, and 367.00 March, and resistance is at 395.00, 398.00, and 399.00 March.

General Comments: Futures closed higher in New York, but lower in London. Trends remain down in New York and have turned down in London for the short-term. Arrivals have been good in West Africa and are reported to be good in Southeast Asia so far this season. However, arrivals in West Africa have been behind year ago levels when they were expected to be above year ago levels. Prices are weak overall due to the ongoing harvest, but have found some good buying interest at current levels as some are now viewing the market as cheap. Current prices in New York are as low as they have been for at least five years. World supply ideas remain high. Harvest reports show good production will be seen this year in West Africa. The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East Africa is getting better rains now. Good conditions are still seen in Southeast Asia and harvest should be strong now amid mostly dry weather.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get cry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.410 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1810 March. Support is at 1850, 1810, and 1790 March, with resistance at 1900, 1940, and 1950 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1360 March. Support is at 1350, 1330, and 1300 March, with resistance at 1380, 1400, and 1420 March.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

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