About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: US markets closed a little higher on forecasts continue for some very cold temperatures to move into the Great Plains this week There were ideas of spotty damage to Wheat in the Great Plains from the current cold air.. The crops in the region are not well established, and the cold would come with little snow cover to protect the crops. Some significant Winterkill is possible, but forecast lows have moderated so big damage potential should be reduced. The weekly charts show that winter wheat price trends remain down, but the holiday trading has turned to sideways price action. The market is also noting dry conditions in western Kansas and other parts of the western Great Plains and the La Nina Winter weather forecast. In fact, a drought has developed in the region and could become serious. The crop has not established itself well due to the dry weather. The market continues to be worried about Russia and its ability to control the world Wheat offer and price. Russia is still exporting a lot of Wheat and has said that it expects another very big crop as the weather going into dormancy in Winter Wheat areas has been very good.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather, but light precipitation is possible today. Temperatures should be much below normal. Northern areas should see light Snow today, then mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be much below normal late in the week. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should trend too much below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 421, 417, and 415 March, with resistance at 429, 434, and 443 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 418, 416, and 411 March, with resistance at 428, 433, and 441 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 611, 608, and 605 March, and resistance is at 622, 625, and 632 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little higher as First Notice Day for January comes at the end of the week. There was a lot of position Rolling from January into March during the day, but it was a quiet holiday trade overall. The situation for Rice remains somewhat bullish at this time. Mercosur countries have had less to offer, and the US has benefitted from the reduced competition. However, year-end export sales have not been strong. Futures remain undervalued in relationship to the US domestic cash market. However, futures often find a top and work lower into January due to increased farm selling that often surfaces in the first part of the year, so any real attempt now might not go too far in the short to medium term. China imported 1,000 tons of US Rice in November!

Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather, but showers are likely Friday and Friday. Temperatures should be below too much below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1166, 1148, and 1138 January, with resistance at 1184, 1204, and 1212 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher again yesterday. There are hopes for increased Corn demand from the export market due to cheap prices, and ethanol demand remains good. Mexico bought yesterday. The trade is also looking at the dry weather in southern Brazil and Argentina. Some timely rains were reported Argentina over the weekend, with amounts up to 1.5 inches seen from southern Buenos Aires to Cordoba. Forecasts for this week are hot and dry, but some showers are forcast for this weekend with only light amounts and por coverage expected. Some crop losses are increasingly possible. Ideas of big supplies and less than great demand keep pulling the market down fundamentally, but it has been the funds who have established a huge and near record short position in futures. They could cover part of this position this week. Farmers are not selling much Corn even in the last part of the harvest due to weak basis and futures price levels. Basis levels have improved, but farmer offers remain down due to the weaker futures prices. Not much selling is reported in South America. La Nina has started and could create dry weather in South America that could really hurt yields.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 349, 346, and 343 December, and resistance is at 354, 360, and 361 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 240, 236, and 233 March, and resistance is at 247, 252, and 257 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower and the products were higher in what seemed to be consolidation and holiday trading. speculative short covering and ideas that Soybeans production in southern Brazil and Argentina are still suffering from dry weather remain features of the market. Speculators added to short positions in the data last week and now seem ready to cover at least part of these sales. It has been hot and dry in these areas, although some good rains were reported in some of the important growing areas from Buenos Aires into Cordoba over the weekend. Forecasts for this week call for drier conditions again, and just light showers are forecast for this weekend. Planting has been stalled in some areas on continued reports of drought in far southern Brazil and parts of Argentina. Soybeans have been stronger due to fears of potential crop losses in southern Brazil and Argentina. US prices are now cheap enough that China is buying much more from the US, and this was seen in the November China data released yesterday. Brazil has been able to capture more business that otherwise would have gone to the US due to the huge crop last year. However, US Soybeans are very well priced right now and demand news over the last couple of weeks has improved. Ideas are that the market is oversold at this time and that a good rally into the end of the year is possible.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 952, 948, and 941 January, and resistance is at 964, 968, and 972 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 311.00, 309.00, and 306.00 January, and resistance is at 320.00, 324.00, and 327.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3300, 3280, and 3250 January, with resistance at 3350, 3360, and 3380 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was sharply lower on a stronger Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar. It remains very cold in the Prairies and farmers are not willing sellers. Farmers are storing crops now as the harvest is over and as they wait for higher prices, but elevators and crusher appear to have good supplies right now. Palm Oil was lower on what was called speculative long liquidation. Recent export data from the private surveyors showed that exports are now above month ago levels for the first time in several months. A stronger Malaysian Riggit recently has also been a bearish factor. Ideas are that production could be as strong as in any month in the last couple of years. There is a lot of talk that supplies are more than adequate for demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 484.00, 481.00, and 478.00 January, with resistance at 498.00, 501.00, and 503.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2500, 2450, and 2440 March, with resistance at 2560, 2590, and 2610 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Very cold with some chances for Snow from Thursday to Sunday.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
December 37 March 225 March 45 March 41 Jan minus 9 Jan
January 40 March 50 March 45 Jan
February 413 March 50 March 35 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
December
January
February minus 23 Mar
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Dec 27
Winnipeg–The following are the closing cash grain
prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 476.71 unchanged
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 502.20 dn 4.00
2 Can 489.20 dn 4.00
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 518.20 dn 4.00
2 Can 505.20 dn 4.00
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 221.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 223.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – December 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 625.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 640.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 650.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 645.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 627.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 642.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 652.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 647.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 627.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 605.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 2,480 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 298.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0650)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 184,148 lots, or 6.55 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 3,278 3,282 3,126 3,134 3,286 3,180 -106 33,072 30,964
Mar-18 3,360 3,362 3,223 3,226 3,357 3,273 -84 2,664 2,834
May-18 3,665 3,673 3,616 3,632 3,667 3,642 -25 143,972 228,746
Jul-18 – – – 3,681 3,681 3,681 0 0 6
Sep-18 3,700 3,708 3,666 3,687 3,703 3,683 -20 4,322 14,512
Nov-18 – – – 3,764 3,764 3,764 0 0 4
Jan-19 3,785 3,794 3,755 3,778 3,792 3,771 -21 100 1,260
Mar-19 – – – 3,834 3,835 3,834 -1 0 10
May-19 3,858 3,859 3,834 3,854 3,870 3,850 -20 18 40
Corn
Turnover: 376,314 lots, or 6.80 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 1,784 1,784 1,746 1,751 1,755 1,755 0 21,596 49,786
Mar-18 1,783 1,783 1,765 1,779 1,777 1,774 -3 3,722 14,080
May-18 1,837 1,837 1,808 1,814 1,817 1,814 -3 303,240 1,008,370
Jul-18 1,816 1,816 1,810 1,815 1,817 1,812 -5 42 1,038
Sep-18 1,792 1,799 1,786 1,794 1,792 1,790 -2 47,616 258,866
Nov-18 1,801 1,802 1,792 1,802 1,801 1,800 -1 98 682
Soymeal
Turnover: 708,932 lots, or 19.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 2,911 2,920 2,896 2,902 2,914 2,906 -8 38,886 50,496
Mar-18 2,873 2,873 2,859 2,862 2,868 2,867 -1 8,608 2,904
May-18 2,822 2,824 2,801 2,806 2,822 2,811 -11 611,406 1,989,892
Jul-18 2,812 2,815 2,811 2,811 2,821 2,811 -10 48 738
Aug-18 2,776 2,776 2,776 2,776 2,804 2,776 -28 2 134
Sep-18 2,816 2,816 2,789 2,794 2,808 2,799 -9 49,900 227,566
Nov-18 2,814 2,815 2,796 2,796 2,812 2,805 -7 82 488
Dec-18 – – – 2,792 2,792 2,792 0 0 2
Palm Oil
Turnover: 278,396 lots, or 14.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 5,050 5,068 5,020 5,044 5,024 5,048 24 4,690 9,354
Feb-18 – – – 5,096 5,072 5,096 24 0 4
Mar-18 – – – 5,074 5,050 5,074 24 0 2
Apr-18 – – – 5,154 5,154 5,154 0 0 24
May-18 5,248 5,262 5,218 5,248 5,222 5,242 20 260,848 528,058
Jun-18 – – – 5,306 5,306 5,306 0 0 10
Jul-18 – – – 5,230 5,230 5,230 0 0 0
Aug-18 – – – 5,246 5,226 5,246 20 0 2
Sep-18 5,296 5,310 5,268 5,284 5,280 5,288 8 12,858 53,610
Oct-18 – – – 5,230 5,230 5,230 0 0 0
Nov-18 – – – 5,254 5,254 5,254 0 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 5,382 5,374 5,382 8 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 282,112 lots, or 16.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 5,350 5,374 5,306 5,326 5,346 5,334 -12 19,036 33,608
Mar-18 5,480 5,480 5,450 5,450 5,454 5,462 8 34 82
May-18 5,702 5,734 5,680 5,694 5,690 5,704 14 246,336 900,738
Jul-18 – – – 5,768 5,768 5,768 0 0 6
Aug-18 – – – 5,780 5,780 5,780 0 0 10
Sep-18 5,862 5,884 5,830 5,844 5,846 5,850 4 16,690 56,082
Nov-18 5,956 5,972 5,896 5,930 5,842 5,932 90 16 16
Dec-18 – – – 6,056 6,056 6,056 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322         A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – a Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2018