Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was lower and seems to be forming a resistance area just above 7800 March. Some liquidation of long positions is possible for the rest of the week as long speculators look to book year-end profits. Chart patterns are bullish overall, but futures have been unable to extend the rally for the past couple of trading sessions. Mills are caught unpriced on a lot of purchases and the market knows this. This data has been given as a major reason to expect higher prices in the next month. Mills will have to pay up again to get covered due to the recent rally. They were very unpriced in the December contract, and that month closed with a sharp rally. The lower quality of the overall crop seems to be the biggest effects from the hurricanes seen during the growing season and then the freeze in the west at the tail end of the growing season. Some traders say that USDA is seriously underestimating demand for the fiber, while the others look to the high USDA ending stocks estimates and suggest that any demand can be easily met. The demand bulls are winning the battle of ideas and price right now.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast should get mostly dry conditions, but precipitation is expected on Sunday. Temperatures should be below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be mostly below normal, but above normal on Friday. The USDA average price is now 75.13 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 47,601 basis, from 47,601 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 7840 March. Support is at 7720, 7700, and 7670 March, with resistance of 7800, 7840, and 7870 March.
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower once gain, and the market has now given back the gains it had in reaction to the damage caused by Hurricane Irma. Overall weather conditions are considered good in Florida at this time, with mostly dry and warm conditions. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors and the fresh fruit packers. Trees in Florida that are still alive now are showing fruit of good sizes, although many have lost a lot of the fruit. Florida producers are actively harvesting and performing maintenance on land and trees. Processors mostly getting packing house eliminations along with field run fruit. FCOJ processors are also getting imports from Brazil, Mexico, and Europe.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures. Brazil should get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with no objectives. Support is at 132.00, 130.00, and 128.00 January, with resistance at 135.00, 140.00, and 142.00 January.
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and closed in London. Speculators are very short the market and appear ready to cover part of these positions before the end of the year. Reports of generally good growing conditions at this time in Brazil provided the best reasons to sell. News was hard to find due to the end of the year, but there was talk of a big crop that will need to be sold in Vietnam. Internal prices in Vietnam remain at high levels compared to London, but were weaker last week. The situation seems little changed in Latin America. Many are concerned about the potential for reduced Brazil production due to earlier drought and the cold and dry Winter, although some exporters suggest that the loss potential has been greatly overestimated. There is plenty of rain in some areas now There are also reports of short crops in parts of Central America and some areas in South America due to the lack of farmer investment from the low prices.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are unchanged today and are about 1.965 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 114.33 ct/lb. Brazil will get showers and storms each day into next week. Temperatures should be variable. Colombia should get isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get isolated showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 120.00, 118.00, and 115.00 March, and resistance is at 124.00, 125.00 and 126.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1700, 1680, and 1650 January, and resistance is at 1750, 1780, and 1800 January.
General Comments: Futures were higher on what appeared to be some speculative short covering tied to profit taking. There was not much in the way of news, but there are ideas that the market has found an important low. Some funds and other speculators appeared to be buying to set profits and losses for the end of the year. Price action has been disappointing due to the strong demand for ethanol that has diverted some Brazil mill production away from Sugar. Mills in Brazil have decided to make more Ethanol as world Crude Oil and products prices have been very strong. Ideas are that these prices can continue strong as OPEC and Russia have agreed to keep production constrained compared to world demand.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature showers and storms each day into next week. Temperatures should be on both sides of normal
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1490, 1560, and 1590 March. Support is at 1460, 1420, and 1390 March, and resistance is at 1480, 1510, and 1530 March. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 382.00, 367.00, and 365.00 March, and resistance is at 389.00, 395.00, and 398.00 March.
General Comments: Futures closed higher in New York, and trends remain down in New York and sideways in London for the short-term. Arrivals have been good in West Africa and are reported to be good in Southeast Asia so far this season. However, arrivals in West Africa have been behind year ago levels when they were expected to be above year ago levels. Prices are weak overall due to the ongoing harvest, but have found some good buying interest at current levels as some are now viewing the market as cheap. Current prices in New York are as low as they have been for at least five years. World supply ideas remain high. Harvest reports show good production will be seen this year in West Africa. The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East Africa is getting better rains now. Good conditions are still seen in Southeast Asia and harvest should be strong now amid mostly dry weather.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get cry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.423 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1810 March. Support is at 1810, 1790, and 1760 March, with resistance at 1900, 1940, and 1950 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1380, 1350, and 1320 March, with resistance at 1420, 1450, and 1460 March.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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