About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Dec 18
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING DEC 14, 2017
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 12/14/2017 12/07/2017 12/15/2016 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 563 440 318 17,693 27,978
CORN 605,329 717,919 805,241 9,201,223 15,428,802
FLAXSEED 0 0 24 4,673 12,541
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 799 1,197 0 6,987 7,899
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 195,225 150,651 206,360 1,425,926 1,555,426
SOYBEANS 1,780,256 1,238,928 1,742,168 25,876,668 29,692,929
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 585,637 354,527 483,807 13,696,561 14,590,204
Total 3,167,809 2,463,662 3,237,918 50,229,731 61,315,779
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

WHEAT
General Comments: US markets closed slightly higher on forecasts for some very cold temperatures to move into the Great Plains later this week. The crops in the region are not well established, and the cold would come with little snow cover to protect the crops. Some significant Winter kill is possible if it gets as cold as the forecasts imply. The weekly charts show that winter wheat price trends remain down, although the markets could be forming a low area. Ideas are that the funds will soon need to cover at least part of a significant short position. The market is also noting dry conditions in western Kansas and other parts of the western Great Plains and the La Nina Winter weather forecast. In fact, a drought has developed in the region and could become serious. The crop has not established itself well due to the dry weather. The market continues to be worried about Russia and its ability to control the world Wheat offer and price. Russia is still exporting a lot of Wheat and has said that it expects another very big crop as the weather going into dormancy in Winter Wheat areas has been very good. World estimates in general remain large and US offers will need to be low to take business. However, the US prices are in fact low and increased demand is possible.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal much of the week, but much below normal late week. Northern areas should get mostly dry weather, but light Snow is possible mid-week. Temperatures should be above normal early in the week and below normal late in the week. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should trend too much below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 417, 415, and 411 March, with resistance at 424, 434, and 443 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 419, 416, and 411 March, with resistance at 422, 428, and 433 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 615, 611, and 608 March, and resistance is at 625, 637, and 646 March.

General Comments: Rice was near unchanged as the market starts to wind down for the holidays. Futures should be near a bottom at this time, and speculative short positions could start to be bought out to cover before the end of the year. The situation for Rice remains somewhat bullish at this time. Mercosur countries have had less to offer, and the US has benefitted from the reduced competition. Futures remain undervalued in relationship to the US domestic cash market. However, futures often find a top and work lower into January due to increased farm selling that often surfaces in the first part of the year. The volumes traded are on the light side and reflect the slow domestic cash market. Rice is reported to be mostly sold already in Texas and Louisiana and has been getting sold in other states. Farmers now are more interested in hunting or holiday activities and so buying paddy Rice inside the US has been difficult.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather, but showers are likely today and Friday. Temperatures should be near to above normal through Friday, than near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1160 January. Support is at 1166, 1148, and 1138 January, with resistance at 1191, 1203, and 1212 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed slightly lower in narrow range trading. Some speculative buying was seen in Corn as funds and other large speculators continue to hold record or near record short positions in this market. Some are looking to cover these positions before the end of the year. The trade is also looking at the dry weather in southern Brazil and Argentina. Some good and timely rains were seen in parts of Argentina and southern Brazil last weekend, but forecasts are drier again. Some crop losses are increasingly possible. Ideas of big supplies and less than great demand keep pulling the market down fundamentally, but it has been the funds who have established a huge and near record short position in futures. Farmers are not selling much Corn even in the last part of the harvest due to weak basis and futures price levels. Basis levels have improved, but farmer offers remain down due to the weaker futures prices. Corn planting is reported to be active in Argentina and southern Brazil. Not much selling is reported in South America. La Nina has started and could create dry weather in South America that could really hurt yields. US prices are cheap now and demand is improving as seen in increased daily announcements of sales of US Corn into the world market.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 345 and 331 March. Support is at 346, 343, and 340 December, and resistance is at 351, 354, and 360 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 260 March. Support is at 250, 246, and 240 March, and resistance is at 257, 260, and 265 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower on reports of beneficial rains in parts of the growing areas of Argentina and southern Brazil. Planting has been stalled in these areas on continued reports of drought in far southern Brazil and parts of Argentina. Farmers that got rain might try to plant, but others may wait  for signs of more regular precipitation patterns. Soybeans have been stronger due to fears of potential crop losses in southern Brazil and Argentina. The other fundamental reason for Soybeans to work lower was fears of reduced Chinese demand and ideas of improved planting conditions in Brazil and the big production last year in South America that has had Brazil offering for the entire year. However, US prices are now cheap enough that China is buying much more from the US. Brazil has been able to capture more business that otherwise would have gone to the US due to the huge crop last year. However, US Soybeans are very well priced right now and demand news over the last couple of weeks has improved in a big way as daily sales announcements are once again being seen.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 145,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 955 January. Support is at 955, 948, and 941 January, and resistance is at 968, 972, and 976 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 310.00 January. Support is at 315.00, 312.00, and 309.00 January, and resistance is at 320.00, 324.00, and 327.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3290, 3280, and 3250 January, with resistance at 3340, 3360, and 3380 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower again yesterday ion weakness in Chicago. Trends are down on the daily charts. Demand is called steady, especially from processors. Exporters are buying too, but the processors have been the best buyers in the market. Farmers are storing crops now as the harvest is over and as they wait for higher prices, but elevators and crusher appear to have good supplies right now. Speculators have been selling due to bearish chart patterns. Palm Oil was lower. Export data last month was weaker, but still positive overall. Weak demand ideas remain along with ideas that production could be as strong as in any month in the last couple of years. There is a lot of talk that supplies are more than adequate for demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 490.00, 484.00, and 481.00 January, with resistance at 495.00, 498.00, and 503.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2530, 2490, and 2460 March, with resistance at 2560, 2590, and 2610 March.

DJ Ag Canada Doubles 2017-18 Canola Ending Stocks Forecast
WINNIPEG — Canadian canola ending stocks for the 2017-18 marketing year are now forecast at two million metric tons by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, double an earlier estimate.
The new projection is well above the 1.3 million-ton carry out from the previous year.
The latest supply/demand tables from AAFC’s market analysis division account for updated production estimates from Statistics Canada released Dec. 6.
Expected canola exports and domestic usage were also revised higher by the government agency, but not to the same extent as production.
Projected wheat ending stocks were increased to an estimated 6.1 million tons. While that would be up from the November estimate of 4.8 million tons, it would still come in below the 2016-17 wheat carry out of 6.8 million tons.
Adjustments to other crops included upward revisions to both pea and lentil ending stocks. Demand expectations were left unchanged for the pulse crops despite rising production numbers.
December estimates for Canadian 2017-18 (August/July) and 2016-17 major crops supply and demand. In million metric tons.
Source: Agriculture and Agri Food Canada.
Grains and Oilseeds
Production Exports
2017/18 2017/18 2016/17 2017/18 2017/18 2016/17
Dec 18 Nov 17 Dec 18 Nov 17
All Wheat 29.984 27.130 31.729 22.000 20.900 20.157
Durum 4.962 4.299 7.762 4.800 4.600 4.534
Barley 7.891 7.306 8.784 2.450 2.250 2.322
Corn 14.095 14.313 13.193 1.500 1.500 1.301
Oats 3.724 3.802 3.195 2.375 2.375 2.302
Canola 21.313 19.708 19.601 11.500 11.000 11.016
Flaxseed 0.548 0.501 0.588 0.500 0.500 0.500
Soybeans 7.717 8.321 6.552 5.600 6.100 4.455
TOTAL 85.746 81.569 84.220 46.068 44.768 42.199
Domestic Usage Ending Stocks
2017/18 2017/18 2016/17 2017/18 2017/18 2016/17
Dec 18 Nov 17 Dec 18 Nov 17
All Wheat 8.829 8.375 10.024 6.100 4.800 6.835
Durum 0.935 0.772 2.476 1.100 0.800 1.863
Barley 6.163 6.027 5.846 1.550 1.250 2.122
Corn 13.082 12.999 12.863 2.500 2.600 2.187
Oats 1.149 1.202 1.163 0.900 0.925 0.680
Canola 9.261 9.156 9.422 2.000 1.000 1.348
Flaxseed 0.068 0.051 0.191 0.180 0.150 0.190
Soybeans 2.351 2.356 2.600 0.375 0.475 0.360
TOTAL 41.217 40.480 42.432 13.785 11.395 13.883
Pulse and Special Crops
Production Exports
2017/18 2017/18 2016/17 2017/18 2017/18 2016/17
Dec 18 Nov 17 Dec 18 Nov 17
Dry peas 4.112 3.862 4.836 2.400 2.400 3.944
Lentils 2.559 2.439 3.248 2.100 2.100 2.455
Dry beans 0.322 0.316 0.234 0.330 0.330 0.337
Chick peas 0.092 0.081 0.082 0.130 0.110 0.108
Mustard 0.122 0.115 0.236 0.125 0.125 0.124
Canaryseed 0.137 0.116 0.140 0.135 0.115 0.153
Sunflower 0.058 0.052 0.051 0.017 0.020 0.018
TOTAL 7.402 6.980 8.827 5.237 5.200 7.138
Domestic Usage Ending Stocks
2017/18 2017/18 2016/17 2017/18 2017/18 2016/17
Dec 18 Nov 17 Dec 18 Nov 17
Dry peas 0.823 0.822 0.798 1.200 0.950 0.300
Lentils 0.364 0.364 0.560 0.565 0.450 0.405
Dry beans 0.030 0.028 0.000 0.075 0.060 0.003
Chick peas 0.007 0.006 0.016 0.005 0.005 0.005
Mustard 0.047 0.045 0.047 0.040 0.035 0.080
Canaryseed 0.002 0.001 0.002 0.005 0.005 0.005
Sunflower 0.046 0.047 0.047 0.065 0.050 0.040
TOTAL 1.318 1.313 1.469 1.955 1.555 0.838
Source: Commodity News Service Canada, cnscanada@shaw.ca

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry early this week, then rain and snow and then sharply colder temperatures this weekend. Temperatures will be mostly above normal through the middle to end of the week.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
December 26-Mar 225 March 45 March 30-Jan minus 9 Dec
January 31-Mar 48 March 37 Jan
February 42 March 48 March 29-Mar
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
December
January minus 23 Jan
February 67 Jan minus 22 Mar
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – – Dec 18
Winnipeg–The following are the closing cash grain
prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 480.00 up 1.00
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 501.20 dn 3.80
2 Can 488.20 dn 3.80
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 516.20 dn 3.80
2 Can 503.20 dn 3.80
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 220.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 220.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – December 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 620.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 635.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 645.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 640.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 622.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 637.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 647.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 642.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 627.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 605.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 2440.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 306.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0760)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 103,874 lots, or 3.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 3,484 3,486 3,457 3,468 3,471 3,470 -1 10,224 90,558
Mar-18 3,481 3,492 3,472 3,472 3,490 3,480 -10 14 322
May-18 3,673 3,677 3,650 3,669 3,651 3,665 14 90,864 232,754
Jul-18 – – – 3,709 3,709 3,709 0 0 6
Sep-18 3,707 3,708 3,685 3,702 3,690 3,700 10 2,706 9,918
Nov-18 – – – 3,806 3,796 3,806 10 0 4
Jan-19 3,773 3,781 3,760 3,769 3,766 3,771 5 66 880
Mar-19 – – – 3,813 3,813 3,813 0 0 14
May-19 – – – 3,855 3,855 3,855 0 0 54
Corn
Turnover: 589,364 lots, or 10.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 1,731 1,736 1,725 1,729 1,727 1,729 2 53,602 156,284
Mar-18 1,746 1,774 1,745 1,766 1,747 1,766 19 5,272 14,492
May-18 1,825 1,832 1,813 1,816 1,813 1,821 8 487,066 961,578
Jul-18 1,818 1,834 1,818 1,824 1,820 1,825 5 88 896
Sep-18 1,812 1,820 1,803 1,806 1,801 1,810 9 43,244 234,054
Nov-18 1,820 1,820 1,815 1,816 1,812 1,817 5 92 332
Soymeal
Turnover: 937,766 lots, or 26.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 2,908 2,917 2,883 2,890 2,900 2,894 -6 76,054 204,062
Mar-18 2,876 2,882 2,864 2,866 2,870 2,875 5 6,100 3,582
May-18 2,818 2,834 2,808 2,818 2,812 2,818 6 824,612 1,926,396
Jul-18 2,829 2,836 2,817 2,817 2,819 2,829 10 44 714
Aug-18 2,801 2,801 2,798 2,798 2,801 2,799 -2 4 132
Sep-18 2,806 2,820 2,799 2,808 2,801 2,807 6 30,774 215,790
Nov-18 2,819 2,823 2,805 2,810 2,803 2,812 9 178 466
Dec-18 – – – 2,798 2,798 2,798 0 0 2
Palm Oil
Turnover: 244,384 lots, or 12.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 5,176 5,176 5,128 5,146 5,176 5,148 -28 13,344 42,254
Feb-18 – – – 5,234 5,262 5,234 -28 0 2
Mar-18 – – – 5,212 5,240 5,212 -28 0 2
Apr-18 – – – 5,324 5,324 5,324 0 0 10
May-18 5,278 5,290 5,234 5,254 5,286 5,260 -26 223,624 528,020
Jun-18 – – – 5,330 5,330 5,330 0 0 10
Jul-18 – – – 5,326 5,326 5,326 0 0 2
Aug-18 – – – 5,172 5,196 5,172 -24 0 2
Sep-18 5,322 5,328 5,282 5,298 5,320 5,300 -20 7,416 53,196
Oct-18 – – – 5,308 5,308 5,308 0 0 0
Nov-18 – – – 5,318 5,338 5,318 -20 0 10
Dec-18 – – – 5,336 5,356 5,336 -20 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 319,544 lots, or 18.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 5,600 5,614 5,542 5,554 5,612 5,566 -46 32,274 134,932
Mar-18 – – – 5,786 5,786 5,786 0 0 16
May-18 5,822 5,828 5,760 5,782 5,828 5,792 -36 277,182 847,482
Jul-18 – – – 5,892 5,928 5,892 -36 0 4
Aug-18 – – – 5,910 5,932 5,910 -22 0 10
Sep-18 5,980 5,986 5,918 5,942 5,990 5,944 -46 10,086 36,640
Nov-18 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,010 6,000 -10 2 6
Dec-18 – – – 6,056 6,056 6,056 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322