Bill Moore
About The Author

Bill Moore

William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337

JAN SOYBEANS

Since early Oct, Jan Beans have been range bound (965-1010) with robust Chinese demand & a lower US Dollar doing battle with the US harvest & early S/A growing weather!  But now with the US Harvest in the rear-view mirror, the mkt was able to push to the top of the range off pesky dryness in Argentina & S. Brazil!

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FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 1.80 MMT (1.2 – 1.5) – Thur sales Were 942,000 (800 – 1,200)

Nov 30 –        132,000 MT  –     Unk

Nov 30 –        525,000 MT  –     China

Nov 29 –        263,000 Mt  –      China

Nov 21 –        130,000 MT   –     UNK

Nov 13 –         135,000 MT   –    Phil

  • NOV CROP REPORT

Production –   4.425 BB  (est – 4.406,   ly – 4.431)

Yield                 49.5 B/A   (est –  49.2,     ly –  49.9)

  • SOUTH AMERICA –not enough rain over the W/E & very little forecast Between now & Mid-Dec –   has the mkt leaning upward – continued Moisture deficits after 12-15 would start to lead to yield losses
  • US DOLLAR – is still 8-9% off its Jan Highs – despite a recent 300 point Upside correction – & this should bode well for our exports!
  • CRUDE OIL – has rallied 35% since Mid-June (43-59) –which is both inflationary & friendly for ethanol demand!

Previous plus $10.00 rallies in Oct & Nov have been short-lived!  We need sustained action over the $10.00 mark to mount an upside charge!

MAR CORN

Despite almost 4000 deliveries against the Dec Corn contract, The Mar contract staged a weekly reversal – with its highest weekly close in 3 weeks!  Unfortunately,  today the mkt couldn’t follow thru losing 5 cents!  Farmer selling both in the US  & S/A was the culprit!

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FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 586,000 MT (700-1,000) – Thur sales Were 599,000MT (700-1.000)

Nov 29 –     101,600  MT             Unk

Nov 14 –     133,086  MT             Unk

  • NOV CROP REPORT

PRODUCTION –      14,578 BB (est – 14,323,    ly –  15,148)

YIELD                –      175.4 b/a  (est –  172.3,      ly –  174.6)

This was a bearish surprise – many feel the final #’s in Jan Will not measure up to these!

  • HEAVY DELIVERIES AGAINST DEC CORN – now up to 3760 contracts – but The mkt is holding thanks to the strength in its” sister mkt” soybeans
  • SOUTH AMERICA CORN PRODUCTION – Argentine corn planting is Unchanged from last year but total Brazil Production is estimated At 90.5MMT- well down from LY’s 98.5. Dryness is S. Brazil & Argentina Could easily reduce those #’s
  • CHINA – the feed mills are rumored to have bought another 4 cargoes Of corn in recent days!  That brings the total to 13 for the past month
  • ETHANOL QUOTAS – were maintained at the status quo – at last years Level – which disappointed the trade

Dryness in South America should be friendlier to corn than beans – as corn down there – is pollinating now!  But strangely, Beans are currently the upside leader!  Chinese export interest & dryness in Argentina will go a long way in replacing corn’s massive stockpiles!

MAR WHEAT

Mar Wht has stayed in a tight range (430-450) since early Nov!  The biggest negative has been a record Russia wht crop – which has translated into record exports.

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  • Sister mkts Jan Bean & Mar Corn have been sideways as well & Wht needs their upside help
  • Winter Whts gd/ex conditions continue to wane – helping to support The  Mar wht contract
  • Egypt is currently tendering for a Jan 11-20 shipment – Russia & Romani Seem to be the main beneficiaries  – the US is not involved but a “rising tide floats all boats”!
  • Cumulative wht sales are at 63% (avg – 67)

FEB CATTLE

After a sterling upside run this past Fall (110-132) – off solid demand & despite increasing supplies, Feb Cat peaked in early Nov – only to correct ½ its gains – going into the Thanksgiving holiday!

In spite of the solid demand implications of a record high stock mkt & an expected near record decline in beef production from the 4th to the 1st Qtr, the mkt is struggling at a 50% correction level – which traditionally supports the mkt!

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FEB HOGS

Since mid-Nov, while Feb Cat has dropped $5 (126-121), Feb Hogs have rallied $5 (66-72)!

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  • The Thanksgiving meal demand spilled over from turkey to pork – But not beef
  • There’s plenty of optimism about China importing US Pork – yet Short-term demand is still sluggish
  • A slow slaughter pace in Nov caused producers to hold back on marketings
  • A very strong demand tone has the uptrend intact & technicals looking good
  • However, with a hefty net long of 63,561 contracts, a cautionary tone Is advised

 

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337

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