Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher in recovery trading on Friday. The market closed near the highs of the week, and bullish traders will now target the spike highs at 7615 bases the nearby futures contract.. The export sales report was good, but not as strong as the previous two weeks, n ut demand ideas remain good. Speculators were buyers. Speculators are already long, and mills have been forced to buy to cover open on call positions in the cash market. The futures market is watching the harvest roll along into its final stages and is debating the demand for US and world Cotton. Some traders say that USDA is seriously underestimating demand for the fiber, while the others look to the high USDA ending stocks estimates and suggest that any demand can be easily met. Farmers are reported to be quiet sellers right now. Harvest conditions are good in just about all areas, but it will turn dry and very cold in Texas this week.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast should get mostly dry conditions, but rain is likely tomorrow. Temperatures should be near to above normal today, than below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be below normal. The USDA average price is now 71.13 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 47,628 bales, from 47,729 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 contracts were tendered for delivery yesterday and that total deliveries for the month are 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 7500 March. Support is at 7230, 7100, and 7080 March, with resistance of 7340, 7380, and 7420 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 28, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 283,328
: Positions :
: 85,922 19,411 48,331 54,113 194,683 78,069 7,692 266,436 270,117: 16,892 13,211
: Changes from: November 21, 2017 (Change in open interest: 17,017) :
: 12,589 -2,962 4,774 -1,137 14,583 -1,176 384 15,050 16,779: 1,967 238
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 30.3 6.9 17.1 19.1 68.7 27.6 2.7 94.0 95.3: 6.0 4.7
: Total Traders: 306 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 113 77 85 49 71 29 10 237 204:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher on Friday, but a little lower for the week. Short term trends turned down with the price action last week, but the move lower could be limited as the freeze season is just around the corner and the current crop is still very small. Overall weather conditions are considered good in Florida at this time, with mostly dry and warm conditions. The harvest is progressing well and fruit is being delivered to processors and the fresh fruit packers. Trees in Florida that are still alive now are showing fruit of good sizes, although many have lost a lot of the fruit. Florida producers are actively harvesting what is left as cleanup from the hurricane is about over now. The emphasis is on the fresh fruit market now, with processors mostly getting packing house eliminations at this time. However, processors are taking deliveries from producers now as well.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather and near normal temperatures. Scattered showers are expected today. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. Some showers are possible this weekend. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 38 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down with objectives of 160.00 and 156.00 January. Support is at 160.00, 157.00, and 155.00 January, with resistance at 165.00, 168.00, and 169.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 28, 2017
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 14,426 :
: Positions :
: 3,395 9,519 1,158 0 0 3,706 286 7 676 459 2,741 :
: Changes from: November 21, 2017 :
: -22 207 -1 0 0 263 -116 -39 -69 38 54 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.5 66.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 25.7 2.0 0.0 4.7 3.2 19.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 68 :
: 17 18 5 0 0 16 . . 15 7 12 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and in London on Friday. New York continues to press against important resistance on the weekly charts that exists at about the 130.00 level. The trends remain sideways to down in London on the daily charts and down on the weekly charts. The market expects an increase in offers of Robusta from Vietnam in the short-term, but those offers have been slow in coming. Internal prices in Vietnam remain at high levels compared to London. Many Arabica traders had been expecting the market to move higher due to ideas of smaller crops from all over Latin America, and especially Brazil. Brazil exports are reduced on what is called reduced inventories held by exporters and producers. Many are concerned about the potential for reduced Brazil production due to earlier drought and the cold and dry Winter, although some exporters suggest that the loss potential has been greatly overestimated. There is plenty of rain in some areas now, but dry weather could return soon and stress the trees again There are also reports of short crops in parts of Central America and some areas in South America due to the lack of farmer investment from the low prices.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.927 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 117.30 ct/lb. Brazil will get showers and storms again today and then starting Monday. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 99 delivery notices were posted against December contracts today and that total deliveries for the month are now 2,371 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 127.00, 126.00, and 125.00 March, and resistance is at 133.00, 134.00 and 136.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1700, 1680, and 1650 January, and resistance is at 1780, 1800, and 1830 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 28, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 222,326
: Positions :
: 36,252 78,114 56,635 74,274 75,030 42,256 4,673 209,417 214,451: 12,909 7,876
: Changes from: November 21, 2017 (Change in open interest: -5,486) :
: 420 -6,582 1,543 -5,518 -297 -619 180 -4,174 -5,156: -1,313 -330
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.3 35.1 25.5 33.4 33.7 19.0 2.1 94.2 96.5: 5.8 3.5
: Total Traders: 479 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 156 145 143 123 101 27 16 380 345:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/28/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
158,717 87,369 65,654 5,945 5,646 5,905
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 55.0% 41.4% 3.7% 3.6% 3.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
178 55 47 13 9 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
12,124 32,343 17,870 2,561 4,144 22,310
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.6% 20.4% 11.3% 1.6% 2.6% 14.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
18 49 20 15 6 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,633 4,845
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
2.9% 3.1%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were a Little lower in both New York and London on Friday. Futures were lower for the week in new York.. The market faded from recent highs and debates about the amount of sugar available to the market continue. Chart trends are still turning up again longer term as the market rallies in part with strength in energy markets and in part on US Dollar weakness. However, the market has been fading against resistance áreas for the last week and might need to correct a bit more before resuming any rally attempt. Brazil features a strong sugarcane crush and continued emphasis on ethanol production and reduced Sugar production as it moves to cover domestic demand at the expense of exports. Sugar production is now below year again levels. Trends could be turning up longer term in London and in New York after the price action last week on ideas of reduced availability of Sugar to the market due to the ethanol use. The lack of demand against ideas of big world production remains the major negative factor.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature showers and storms most of the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1500, 1480, and 1460 March, and resistance is at 1530, 1550, and 1580 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 385.00, 383.00, and 380.00 March, and resistance is at 396.00, 399.00, and 405.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 28, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 815,533
: Positions :
: 140,541 140,465 120,835 255,281 472,207 223,786 21,538 740,442 755,045: 75,091 60,488
: Changes from: November 21, 2017 (Change in open interest: 11,230) :
: 4,579 -5,949 5,450 -2,948 10,497 1,989 868 9,070 10,866: 2,160 364
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 17.2 17.2 14.8 31.3 57.9 27.4 2.6 90.8 92.6: 9.2 7.4
: Total Traders: 232 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 61 56 77 73 74 22 12 196 188:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/28/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
74,038 39,475 48,739 7,296 7,217 2,465
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 53.3% 65.8% 9.9% 9.7% 3.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
123 48 46 8 8 5
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
14,156 7,110 2,378 2,700 1,302 1,955
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
19.1% 9.6% 3.2% 3.6% 1.8% 2.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
16 16 11 4 7 8
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,614 2,872
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.9% 3.9%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower in both markets and it looks like lower prices are coming as the new crop comes to market in West Africa. Trends are turning down on the weekly charts, and it is possible that a return to the range that existed for months is coming. There should be plenty of Cocoa available to the market as the main harvest in West Africa has been active. Weather consultants think that the crops are in mostly good condition, and the condition is likely to stay good in La Nina brings increased rains to production areas. It has been unseasonably wet in parts of West Africa, so some diseases could be forming. Demand ideas are holding strong as processor margins have been great. Ivory Coast processing data was strong in a report released Tuesday. World production ideas remain high.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.701 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 422 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives 1980 and 1890 March. Support is at 2010, 1960, and 1930 March, with resistance at 2070, 2080, and 2110 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1470 and 1360 March. Support is at 1460, 1430, and 1400 March, with resistance at 1520, 1540, and 1560 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 28, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 263,874
: Positions :
: 58,694 53,248 43,901 99,132 146,335 43,725 11,777 245,452 255,261: 18,422 8,613
: Changes from: November 21, 2017 (Change in open interest: 3,641) :
: -430 -311 2,410 1,617 800 -533 -308 3,064 2,592: 577 1,049
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.2 20.2 16.6 37.6 55.5 16.6 4.5 93.0 96.7: 7.0 3.3
: Total Traders: 258 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 108 62 69 47 43 26 7 211 155:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/28/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
315,066 196,207 183,422 21,649 15,270 19,566
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 62.3% 58.2% 6.9% 4.8% 6.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
155 49 42 16 6 14
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
18,248 41,089 23,723 5,312 1,148 28,525
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.8% 13.0% 7.5% 1.7% 0.4% 9.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
18 32 18 16 7 23
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
1,837 2,323
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.6% 0.7%

DJ ICCO Cuts Global Cocoa Surplus Estimate for 2016-17 Season
By David Hodari
LONDON–The International Cocoa Organization on Thursday cut its estimate for global cocoa surplus in the 2016-17 season, partly thanks to signals of increased consumption.
The Abidjan-based organization said in its quarterly report said that supply would surpass demand by 335,000 metric tons, down from its late-August estimate of 371,000 tons.
World cocoa production has now hit 4.733 million tons, up from the 4.700 million tons in the previous estimate, and up 18.5% year-on-year the ICCO said.
That slight increase in the ICCO’s production forecast belied the extent to which supply in 2016/17 grew from the previous year. End of season stocks in 2016/17 were up 23.5% year-on-year, the Ivory Coast-based agency said.
The season’s global record crop came thanks to a leap in production out of the Ivory Coast and Ghana–the world’s two largest cocoa producers, the ICCO said. Together, the two nations account for 63% of global cocoa production. Overall production in Africa was estimated to have risen by 23% on-the-year, the ICCO said.
Ivorian production grew by 27.8% to 2.02 million tons, and Ghanaian production increased by 25% to just under 970,000 tons, the report said.
Looking ahead, though, “all attention is now focused on the world’s output for the 2017/18 season, as there is the expectation of a lower supply surplus, as excess rainfall in West Africa is reported to have had an impact on the main crop production in the region,” the ICCO said.
In the Americas, an abundant year for Ecuadorian cocoa production helped production to rise 11% to 750,000 tons.
In Asia and Oceania, however, production was revised down by 19,000 tons to 379,000 tons–a 12.9% slip from last year figure. Combined, the two regions account for 24% of global production.
Processing of raw cocoa into cocoa products, known as grinding, rose by 5.4%–or 224,000 tons–to 4.351 million tons in 2016-17, the ICCO said.
Grinding figures are often used as a proxy for demand but traders say they can also reflect the location and importance of factories or the movement of beans.
The November forecast doesn’t include official estimates for production for the current 2017-18 season, which began in West Africa in October and runs until September.
London-traded cocoa futures were last down 0.27% at GBP 1,491 a ton. New York-traded futures were last up 0.44% at $2,058 a ton.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

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