Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 1
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL December Dec. 04, 2017 59 Nov 07, 2017
SOYBEAN OIL December Dec. 04, 2017 279 Nov 15, 2017
CORN December Dec. 04, 2017 1286 Nov 24, 2017
KC HRW WHEAT December Dec. 04, 2017 556 Nov 21, 2017
OATS December Dec. 04, 2017 15 Nov 28, 2017
WHEAT December Dec. 04, 2017 1520 Nov 24, 2017
EU WHEAT December Dec. 04, 2017 45 Nov 03, 2017

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed mixed yesterday after trading a little higher for much of the day. USDA showed very bad export sales, and this hurt any upside potential that might have been caused by the weather forecasts for next week. Forecasts for late next week in the Great Plains showed cold and dry conditions. Temperatures could easily move below freezing during the cold spell and some Winter Wheat could be damaged. The crop has no snow cover, and it does not look likely that any snow will come before the cold air hits. The crop has been trying to develop under very warm and dry conditions until now, but development reports have not been good and USDA condition reports have been showing this. Meanwhile, domestic markets in the US are showing a firmer tone as farmers are not willing to sell. The demand in the export market has not developed as the bulls had hoped as the demand for higher protein wheats has not been strong enough to overcome the market dominance of Russia. The market is noting dry conditions in western Kansas and other parts of the western Great Plains and the La Nina Winter weather forecast. The long range forecast calls for warmer and drier than normal conditions in the South and Southwest, and it is possible that Winter Wheat will suffer under more stressful conditions. World estimates in general remain large and US offers need to be low to take business. It will be another small US crop as farmers continue to reduce planted area year after year in response to low world and US prices, due mostly to strong competition mostly from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should trend to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 424 and 410 March. Support is at 431, 424, and 418 March, with resistance at 439, 445, and 450 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 422 and 418 March. Support is at 428, 422, and 416 March, with resistance at 437, 442, and 451 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 611 March. Support is at 615, 608, and 600 March, and resistance is at 637, 646, and 651 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher and futures made new highs for the move as the export demand remains good and the offer in the cash market remains almost impossible to find. Cash markets inside the US remain slow and steady as producers and mills remain mostly out of the market. Cash markets in the southern Delta and into Texas are firm on tight supplies, while markets farther north are very quiet and steady. The domestic cash market might stay slow now through the holidays. Futures still can work higher over time to reflect the realities of the domestic cash market.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather, but showers are likely next week. Temperatures should be near to above normal through Tuesday, then near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1274 and 1301 January. Support is at 1245, 1234, and 1222 January, with resistance at 1263, 1277, and 1286 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher on speculator buying. Soybeans were a little lower, and ideas are that speculators were liquidating spreads between the two markets at the end of the month. It should have been a profitable spread for them. There did not seem to be much news to Support the market, and the export sales report was not strong. There was also some concern again about crop conditions in South America. Forecasts there are calling for better rains in the drier pockets of Argentina this week, and these should fall today and tomorrow. However, it should turn dry again after this event. Ideas are that yields could start to suffer unless the overall weather pattern changes from the current La Nina pattern to one more conducive for rains in southern Brazil and northern Argentina. Ideas of big supplies and less than great demand keep pulling the market down fundamentally, but the funds have established a huge and near record short position in futures and might not be able to sell much more. Farmers in the US are not selling much Corn due to weak basis and futures price levels. Basis levels have improved, but farmer offers remain down, although farmers have been actively delivering on contracts. Corn planting is reported to be active in Argentina and southern Brazil. Not much selling is reported in South America.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 130,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 352, 351, and 349 December, and resistance is at 358, 359, and 361 March. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 257 and 247 March. Support is at 259, 257, and 252 March, and resistance is at 264, 267, and 272 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower on weaker export sales. Soybean Oil moved lower in buy the rumor and sell the fact trading in response to the EPA announcement continuing the biofuels mandates. Traders were unhappy that the EPA did not increase the mandates, but just a few weeks ago it had been looking for ways to make the mandates smaller, so something unchanged to greater for the coming year is positive. Some concern is expressed about the lack of rains in southern Brazil and northern Argentina. Argentina especially is expected to see some showers and rains today and tomorrow, but not with universal coverage. Drier weather is expected after this event. It is a classic La Nina pattern and the weather could continue to Support the market. The fundamental reason for Soybeans to work lower was fears of reduced Chinese demand. China might be forced to reduce demand as the government is making it harder to get safety permits and also is making some economic changes that could make getting credit harder. Meanwhile, it is wetter in the north of Brazil and crops in central and northern Brazil should be in mostly good condition.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 980, 970, and 965 January. Support is at 983, 977, and 967 January, and resistance is at 996, 1001, and 1005 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 325.00, 323.00, and 319.00 January, and resistance is at 330.00, 332.00, and 333.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3350 January. Support is at 3360, 3340, and 3300 January, with resistance at 3430, 3460, and 3500 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower, mostly on the price weakness in Chicago. A weaker Canadian Dollar limited the losses. Demand is called steady, especially from processors. Exporters are buying too, but the processors have been the best buyers in the market. Farmers are storing crops now as the harvest comes to a close and as they wait for higher prices, but elevators and crushers appear to have good supplies right now. StatsCan will issue its next production estimates on December 6. Palm Oil was closed for a holiday. Export data last month was weaker, but still positive overall. Weak demand ideas come even though India is talking about increasing imports due to weak oilseeds production there this year. There is a lot of talk that supplies are more than adequate for demand. Charts show that the trends are down
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 502.00 January. Support is at 509.00, 507.00, and 504.00 January, with resistance at 515.00, 517.00, and 522.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 2560 and 2500 February. Support is at 2560, 2540, and 2510 February, with resistance at 2610, 2650, and 2680 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry into next week. Temperatures will be mostly above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
December 41 Dec 215 Dec 60 March 24-Jan minus 9 Dec
January 38 March 45 March 35 Jan
February 38 March 43 March 32 March
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua
December 64 Dec
January minus 20 Jan
February 67 Jan minus 20 Mar
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 30
Winnipeg–The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 490.89 up 1.70
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 519.60 dn 0.80
2 Can 506.60 dn 0.80
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 534.60 dn 0.80
2 Can 521.60 dn 0.80
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 220.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 219.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 30
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 647.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan 650.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 660.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 670.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 650.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan 652.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 662.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 672.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 665.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 620.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 2520.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 325.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0890)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 01
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 146,604 lots, or 5.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 3,563 3,589 3,559 3,572 3,597 3,574 -23 82,022 218,936
Mar-18 3,636 3,636 3,636 3,636 3,664 3,636 -28 6 36
May-18 3,707 3,719 3,695 3,709 3,734 3,708 -26 64,034 143,876
Jul-18 3,694 3,763 3,694 3,763 3,786 3,728 -58 4 2
Sep-18 3,772 3,790 3,770 3,782 3,808 3,782 -26 496 2,420
Nov-18 – – – 3,818 3,824 3,818 -6 0 4
Jan-19 3,870 3,913 3,830 3,862 3,884 3,872 -12 42 364
Mar-19 – – – 3,884 3,901 3,884 -17 0 2
May-19 – – – 3,928 3,928 3,928 0 0 22
Corn
Turnover: 690,792 lots, or 11.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 1,716 1,717 1,702 1,708 1,716 1,706 -10 428,168 549,998
Mar-18 1,714 1,725 1,712 1,724 1,724 1,718 -6 5,862 10,722
May-18 1,764 1,764 1,754 1,759 1,765 1,757 -8 241,916 520,784
Jul-18 1,776 1,776 1,765 1,769 1,775 1,770 -5 16 358
Sep-18 1,773 1,773 1,764 1,768 1,774 1,767 -7 14,776 92,576
Nov-18 1,781 1,781 1,779 1,780 1,786 1,780 -6 54 76
Soymeal
Turnover: 955,588 lots, or 26.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 2,901 2,901 2,900 2,900 2,901 2,900 -1 36 1,428
Jan-18 2,880 2,884 2,865 2,870 2,891 2,871 -20 226,938 784,930
Mar-18 2,847 2,848 2,824 2,828 2,856 2,827 -29 4,284 3,058
May-18 2,816 2,816 2,791 2,800 2,824 2,801 -23 685,906 1,645,184
Jul-18 2,800 2,802 2,794 2,795 2,824 2,797 -27 486 360
Aug-18 2,809 2,809 2,781 2,795 2,828 2,793 -35 26 134
Sep-18 2,801 2,803 2,783 2,787 2,812 2,789 -23 37,636 166,548
Nov-18 2,793 2,799 2,792 2,793 2,826 2,794 -32 276 146
Palm Oil
Turnover: 351,518 lots, or 19.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 – – – 5,504 5,504 5,504 0 0 0
Jan-18 5,344 5,358 5,312 5,346 5,314 5,336 22 42,074 124,218
Feb-18 – – – 5,414 5,414 5,414 0 0 2
Mar-18 5,420 5,420 5,420 5,420 5,440 5,420 -20 2 4
Apr-18 5,532 5,532 5,504 5,504 5,492 5,518 26 4 10
May-18 5,460 5,468 5,410 5,456 5,420 5,440 20 298,244 388,624
Jun-18 – – – 5,446 5,446 5,446 0 0 10
Jul-18 – – – 5,528 5,528 5,528 0 0 2
Aug-18 – – – 5,362 5,344 5,362 18 0 2
Sep-18 5,420 5,460 5,410 5,454 5,410 5,436 26 11,194 37,702
Oct-18 – – – 5,416 5,416 5,416 0 0 0
Nov-18 – – – 5,434 5,434 5,434 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 371,846 lots, or 22.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 – – – 5,808 5,808 5,808 0 0 0
Jan-18 5,876 5,886 5,830 5,868 5,846 5,858 12 107,352 441,464
Mar-18 – – – 5,938 5,938 5,938 0 0 16
May-18 6,052 6,074 6,006 6,046 6,032 6,036 4 256,608 553,710
Jul-18 – – – 6,070 6,070 6,070 0 0 2
Aug-18 – – – 6,150 6,150 6,150 0 0 4
Sep-18 6,186 6,204 6,144 6,196 6,166 6,172 6 7,886 21,394
Nov-18 – – – 6,176 6,176 6,176 0 0 2
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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