Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Nov 30
For the week ended Nov 23, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales, less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total commitments are total export shipments plus total sales. The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 184.4 3.0 17164.8 18865.7 5525.2 93.7
hrw 55.4 0.0 6710.8 7666.9 1941.0 7.4
srw 34.4 0.0 1603.0 1605.9 523.1 69.5
hrs 36.5 3.0 4680.0 5976.8 1675.7 15.3
white 58.1 0.0 3911.9 3281.7 1327.0 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 259.1 334.3 58.5 1.5
corn 599.2 0.0 22022.8 30082.4 14528.5 1029.5
soybeans 942.9 0.0 34395.0 41698.3 13303.8 244.2
soymeal 176.6 2.0 4908.2 4750.8 3559.0 128.9
soyoil 11.6 1.4 202.3 433.6 85.4 1.4
upland cotton 276.5 52.8 9646.1 6854.6 7456.4 993.3
pima cotton 8.6 0.0 447.3 398.0 356.4 19.7
sorghum 328.0 0.0 2861.2 2664.4 1880.2 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 38.0 15.3 22.1 7.1
rice 75.2 0.0 1361.4 1532.8 605.3 0.0
Write to Kareema Clark at csstat@dowjones.com

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Nov 30
For the week ended Nov 23, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales, less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total commitments are total export shipments plus total sales. The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 184.4 3.0 17164.8 18865.7 5525.2 93.7
hrw 55.4 0.0 6710.8 7666.9 1941.0 7.4
srw 34.4 0.0 1603.0 1605.9 523.1 69.5
hrs 36.5 3.0 4680.0 5976.8 1675.7 15.3
white 58.1 0.0 3911.9 3281.7 1327.0 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 259.1 334.3 58.5 1.5
corn 599.2 0.0 22022.8 30082.4 14528.5 1029.5
soybeans 942.9 0.0 34395.0 41698.3 13303.8 244.2
soymeal 176.6 2.0 4908.2 4750.8 3559.0 128.9
soyoil 11.6 1.4 202.3 433.6 85.4 1.4
upland cotton 276.5 52.8 9646.1 6854.6 7456.4 993.3
pima cotton 8.6 0.0 447.3 398.0 356.4 19.7
sorghum 328.0 0.0 2861.2 2664.4 1880.2 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 38.0 15.3 22.1 7.1
rice 75.2 0.0 1361.4 1532.8 605.3 0.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 30
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL December Dec. 01, 2017 60 Sep 28, 2017
SOYBEAN OIL December Dec. 01, 2017 179 Sep 27, 2017
CORN December Dec. 01, 2017 1204 Aug 21, 2017
KC HRW WHEAT December Dec. 01, 2017 55 Jul 31, 2017
WHEAT December Dec. 01, 2017 2000 Sep 14, 2017

Alerts History
• 30-Nov-2017 09:02:44 AM – EPA SETS TOTAL 2018 U.S. RENEWABLE FUELS REQUIREMENT AT 19.29 BLN GALLONS, VS 19.28 BLN IN 2017
• 30-Nov-2017 09:03:05 AM – EPA SETS 2018 REQUIREMENTS FOR ADVANCED BIOFUELS AT 4.29 BLN GALLONS, VS 4.28 BLN IN 2017
• 30-Nov-2017 09:03:28 AM – EPA SETS 2018 REQUIREMENTS FOR CELLULOSIC BIOFUELS AT 288 MLN GALLONS, VS 311 MLN IN 2017
• 30-Nov-2017 09:03:43 AM – EPA SETS 2019 REQUIREMENTS FOR BIODIESEL AT 2.1 BLN GALLONS, VS 2.1 BLN IN 2018
• 30-Nov-2017 09:07:42 AM – EPA REQUIREMENTS PUT 2018 CONVENTIONAL BIOFUEL TARGET AT 15 BLN GALLONS, VS 15 BLN IN 2017
EPA sets 2018 biofuels requirements at 19.29 bln gallons – Reuters News
30-Nov-2017 09:16:16 AM
WASHINGTON, Nov 30 (Reuters) – The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said on Thursday it will require fuel companies to blend 19.29 billion gallons of renewable fuels into the nation’s fuel supply in 2018, up slightly from the 19.28 billion gallons required for 2017.
That will include 15 billion gallons of conventional biofuels like corn-based ethanol, in line with 2017, and 4.29 billion gallons of so-called advanced biofuels, up from 4.28 billion in 2017.
For 2019, the EPA set a target for biodiesel at 2.1 billion gallons, unchanged from 2018.
(( richard.valdmanis@thomsonreuters.com ; +1 617 312 6022; Reuters Messaging: richard.valdmanis.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net ))

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed higher yesterday as forecasts for late next week in the Great Plains showed cold and dry conditions. Temperatures could easily move below freezing during the cold spell and some Winter Wheat could be damaged. The crop has no snow cover, and it does not look likely that any snow will come before the cold air hits. Meanwhile, domestic markets in the US are showing a firmer tone as farmers are not willing to sell. The demand in the export market has not developed as the bulls had hoped as the demand for higher protein wheat has not been strong enough to overcome the market dominance of Russia. The market is noting dry conditions in western Kansas and other parts of the western Great Plains and the La Nina Winter weather forecast. The long range forecast calls for warmer and drier than normal conditions in the South and Southwest, and it is possible that Winter Wheat will suffer under more stressful conditions. World estimates in general remain large and US offers need to be low to take business. It will be another small US crop as farmers continue to reduce planted area year after year in response to low world and US prices, due mostly to strong competition mostly from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should trend to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 424 and 410 March. Support is at 431, 424, and 418 March, with resistance at 436, 445, and 450 March. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 422 and 418 March. Support is at 422, 416, and 410 March, with resistance at 434, 442, and 451 March. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 611 March. Support is at 615, 608, and 600 March, and resistance is at 637, 646, and 651 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher in reaction to the baseline data in the USDA reports and as commercials tried to get some coverage for their demand. Cash markets inside the US remain slow and steady as producers and mills remain mostly out of the market. Cash markets in the southern Delta and into Texas are firm on tight supplies, while markets farther north are very quiet and steady. The domestic cash market might stay slow now through the holidays. Futures still can work higher over time to reflect the realities of the domestic cash market.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather, but showers are likely mid week. Temperatures should be near to above normal through Wednesday, then near to below normal
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1274 and 1301 January. Support is at 1222, 1216, and 1212 January, with resistance at 1245, 1263, and 1277 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher on speculator buying. There did not seem to be much news to Support the market, but ag markets in general were firm. There was also some concern yesterday about crop conditions in South America. Forecasts there are calling for better rains in the drier pockets of Argentina this week. However, it could turn dry again later, and the coverage of the rain this week will not be universal. Ideas are that yields could start to suffer unless the overall weather pattern changes from the current La Nina pattern to one more conducive for rains in southern Brazil and northern Argentina. Ideas of big supplies and less than great demand keep pulling the market down fundamentally, but the funds have established a huge and near record short position in futures and might not be able to sell much more. Farmers in the US are not selling much Corn due to weak basis and futures price levels. Basis levels have improved, but farmer offers remain down, although farmers have been actively delivering on contracts. Corn planting is reported to be active in Argentina and southern Brazil. Not much selling is reported in South America.
Overnight News: China bought 110,000 tons of US Sorghum yesterday.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 345 and 331 March. Support is at 351, 349, and 346 December, and resistance is at 355, 358, and 359 March. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 257 and 247 March. Support is at 259, 257, and 252 March, and resistance is at 264, 267, and 272 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were mixed. It was a quiet session, and Soybeans closed about unchanged. Some concern is expressed about the lack of rains in southern Brazil and northern Argentina. Argentina especially is expected to see some showers and rains this week, but not with universal coverage. Drier weather is possible beyond the next week. It is a classic La Nina pattern and the weather could continue to Support the market. The fundamental reason for Soybeans to work lower was fears of reduced Chinese demand. China might be forced to reduce demand as the government is making it harder to get safety permits and also is making some economic changes that could make getting credit harder. Meanwhile, it is wetter in the north of Brazil and crops in central and northern Brazil should be in mostly good condition. The crop is close to an average planting pace now after a slow start. Planting progress in Argentina is a little behind the averages, but on about the same pace as last year.
Overnight News: China bought 525,000 tons of US Soybeans and Unknown Destinations bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans yesterday.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 988, 983, and 977 January, and resistance is at 1001, 1005, and 1012 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 325.00, 323.00, and 319.00 January, and resistance is at 332.00, 333.00, and 340.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3250 January. Support is at 3360, 3340, and 3300 January, with resistance at 3430, 3460, and 3500 January.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher. Demand is called steady, especially from processors. Exporters are buying too, but the processors have been the best buyers in the market. Farmers are storing crops now as the harvest comes to a close and as they wait for higher prices, but elevators and crushers appear to have good supplies right now. StatsCan will issue its next production estimates on December 6. Palm Oil was higher on Chicago price action and on ideas that spe3culators and cash market buyers were more interested in buying. Export data this month was been weaker, but still positive overall. Weak demand ideas come even though India is talking about increasing imports due to weak oilseeds production there this year. There is a lot of talk that supplies are more than adequate for demand. Charts show that the trends are down
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports were 1,311 million tons in November, from 1.416 million in October. ITS said that exports were 1.332 million tons, from 1.406 million in October.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 502.00 January. Support is at 507.00, 504.00, and 500.00 January, with resistance at 512.00, 515.00, and 517.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 2560 and 2500 February. Support is at 2540, 2510, and 2480 February, with resistance at 2610, 2650, and 2680 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry this week, but some showers are possible late in the week. Temperatures will be variable.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Novmber 37 Dec 215 Dec 20-Jan minus 9 Dec
December 40 Dec 60 Mar 25-Jan
January 38 March 43 Mar 35 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua
December 64 Dec
January
February minus 21 Mar
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 29
Winnipeg–The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 489.19 up 0.90
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 520.40 up 1.70
2 Can 507.40 up 1.70
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 535.40 up 1.70
2 Can 522.40 up 1.70
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 220.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 219.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 30
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 647.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan 650.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 660.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 670.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 650.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan 652.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 662.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 672.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 665.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 620.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 2520.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 325.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0890)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 30
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 258,498 lots, or 9.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 3,645 3,648 3,555 3,560 3,652 3,597 -55 170,114 232,708
Mar-18 3,688 3,688 3,640 3,640 3,717 3,664 -53 4 36
May-18 3,769 3,776 3,705 3,709 3,779 3,734 -45 87,612 144,512
Jul-18 – – – 3,786 3,815 3,786 -29 0 4
Sep-18 3,832 3,839 3,776 3,776 3,838 3,808 -30 712 2,180
Nov-18 – – – 3,824 3,854 3,824 -30 0 4
Jan-19 3,902 3,907 3,875 3,875 3,911 3,884 -27 46 350
Mar-19 – – – 3,901 3,901 3,901 0 0 2
May-19 3,936 3,936 3,920 3,920 3,955 3,928 -27 10 22
Corn
Turnover: 470,042 lots, or 8.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 1,720 1,724 1,711 1,715 1,715 1,716 1 258,188 603,778
Mar-18 1,728 1,729 1,717 1,717 1,722 1,724 2 1,288 6,268
May-18 1,770 1,773 1,761 1,762 1,763 1,765 2 191,102 496,212
Jul-18 1,779 1,779 1,775 1,778 1,774 1,775 1 58 352
Sep-18 1,777 1,780 1,769 1,773 1,772 1,774 2 19,372 90,094
Nov-18 1,782 1,790 1,781 1,785 1,780 1,786 6 34 46
Soymeal
Turnover: 972,746 lots, or 27.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 2,901 2,902 2,901 2,902 2,929 2,901 -28 12 1,464
Jan-18 2,887 2,904 2,880 2,885 2,892 2,891 -1 261,490 825,202
Mar-18 2,857 2,874 2,844 2,847 2,855 2,856 1 16 308
May-18 2,823 2,838 2,810 2,816 2,824 2,824 0 675,944 1,684,700
Jul-18 2,824 2,824 2,824 2,824 2,820 2,824 4 4 170
Aug-18 2,815 2,842 2,815 2,842 2,823 2,828 5 4 136
Sep-18 2,810 2,826 2,797 2,801 2,813 2,812 -1 35,276 159,632
Nov-18 – – – 2,826 2,826 2,826 0 0 2
Palm Oil
Turnover: 381,002 lots, or 20.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 – – – 5,504 5,504 5,504 0 0 0
Jan-18 5,300 5,354 5,284 5,320 5,310 5,314 4 59,858 133,034
Feb-18 – – – 5,414 5,414 5,414 0 0 2
Mar-18 – – – 5,440 5,440 5,440 0 0 2
Apr-18 – – – 5,492 5,492 5,492 0 0 10
May-18 5,400 5,464 5,378 5,414 5,416 5,420 4 311,790 381,600
Jun-18 – – – 5,446 5,446 5,446 0 0 10
Jul-18 – – – 5,528 5,528 5,528 0 0 2
Aug-18 – – – 5,344 5,342 5,344 2 0 2
Sep-18 5,382 5,452 5,370 5,408 5,398 5,410 12 9,354 38,298
Oct-18 – – – 5,416 5,416 5,416 0 0 0
Nov-18 – – – 5,434 5,434 5,434 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 429,920 lots, or 25.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 5,808 5,808 5,808 5,808 5,808 5,808 0 2 0
Jan-18 5,824 5,874 5,806 5,854 5,842 5,846 4 157,602 472,438
Mar-18 – – – 5,938 5,938 5,938 0 0 16
May-18 5,996 6,068 5,986 6,034 6,026 6,032 6 267,232 527,404
Jul-18 – – – 6,070 6,070 6,070 0 0 2
Aug-18 – – – 6,150 6,144 6,150 6 0 4
Sep-18 6,130 6,194 6,122 6,162 6,160 6,166 6 5,084 20,246
Nov-18 – – – 6,176 6,176 6,176 0 0 2
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

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