Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Alerts History
• 28-Nov-2017 11:21:09 AM – USDA ESTIMATES 2018/19 U.S. CORN PLANTINGS AT 91.0 MILLION ACRES, CROP AT 14.520 BILLION BUSHELS
• 28-Nov-2017 11:21:29 AM – USDA ESTIMATES 2018/19 U.S. SOYBEAN PLANTINGS AT 91.0 MILLION ACRES, CROP AT 4.360 BILLION BUSHELS
• 28-Nov-2017 11:21:57 AM – USDA ESTIMATES 2018/19 U.S. ALL-WHEAT PLANTINGS AT 45.0 MILLION ACRES, CROP AT 1.815 BILLION BUSHELS
• 28-Nov-2017 11:25:23 AM – USDA FORECASTS 2018/19 U.S. CORN END STOCKS AT 2.607 BILLION BU, SOY END STOCKS AT 376 MILLION BU, WHEAT END STOCKS AT 813 MILLION BU
U.S. corn, soy area seen up in 2018/19, wheat acres to fall -USDA – Reuters News
28-Nov-2017 11:42:30 AM
CHICAGO, Nov 28 (Reuters) – U.S. farmers are likely to expand plantings of both corn and soybeans while reducing wheat seedings for the upcoming marketing year, the U.S. Agriculture Department said on Tuesday.
The USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist forecast that farmers will seed 91.0 million acres of corn in the 2018/19 crop year, up from 90.4 million for 2017/18. For soybeans, acreage will also rise to 91.0 million acres, from 90.2 million.
The USDA projected U.S. all-wheat plantings for 2018/19 at 45.0 million acres, down from 46.0 million in 2017/18. Complete tables are available here: https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/projections/index.htm
(Reporting by Julie Ingwersen
Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed a little higher yesterday as Egypt bought more Russian Wheat at slightly lower prices. The US is competitive in the world market, but Egypt will keep buying from Russia or eastern Europe if at all possible. Meanwhile, domestic markets in the US are showing a firmer tone as farmers are not willing to sell and as there are questions about the weather in the Great Plains. The demand in the export market has not developed as the bulls had hoped as the demand for higher protein wheats has not been strong enough to overcome the market dominance of Russia. The market is noting dry conditions in western Kansas and other parts of the western Great Plains and the La Nina Winter weather forecast. The long range forecast calls for warmer and drier than normal conditions in the South and Southwest, and it is possible that Winter Wheat will suffer under more stressful conditions. World estimates in general remain large and US offers need to be low to take business. It will be another small US crop as farmers continue to reduce planted area year after year in response to low world and US prices, due mostly to strong competition mostly from Russia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should trend to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 401 December. Support is at 405, 402, and 396 December, with resistance at 418, 421, and 428 December. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 402 and 398 December. Support is at 402, 399, and 396 December, with resistance at 415, 418, and 424 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 589 and 567 December. Support is at 594, 588, and 578 December, and resistance is at 612, 625, and 636 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed near unchanged as the holiday market is really taking hold in this market. Cash markets inside the US remain slow and steady. Cash markets in the southern Delta and into Texas are firm on tight supplies, while markets farther north are very quiet and steady. The domestic cash market might stay slow now through the holidays. Futures still can work higher over time to reflect the realities of the domestic cash market. USDA said that planted and harvested Rice area for next year should be about 2.9 million acres, from 2.5 million planted and 2.4 million harvested this year. It expects a rebound in yields to 7,651 pounds per acre and production of 220.2 million hundredweight. Total use is estimated at 235.0 million hundredweight, and ending stocks are estimated at 39.8 hundredweight, from 29.9 million this year. The average farm price should be about $12.30 per hundredweight, from $13.00 this year.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather, but showers are likely mid week. Temperatures should be near to above normal through Wednesday, then near to below normal
Chart Analysis: The Delta should get mostly dry weather, but showers are likely mid week. Temperatures should be near to above normal through Wednesday, then near to below normal.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Nov 29
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.43 9.83 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 15.06 10.19 0.00
Brokens 9.31 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower on follow through selling. There has not been enough demand around to support prices where they are, so funds and other speculators keep selling. There was also some selling around on ideas of good conditions for crops in South America. Forecasts there are calling for better rains in the drier pockets of Argentina this week. However, it could turn dry again later Ideas of big supplies and less than great demand keep pulling the market down fundamentally, but the funds have established a huge and near record short position in futures and might not be able to sell much more. Farmers in the US are not selling much Corn due to weak basis and futures price levels. Basis levels have improved, but farmer offers remain down, although farmers have been actively delivering on contracts. Corn planting is reported to be active in Argentina and southern Brazil amid improved conditions. Not much selling is reported in South America.
Overnight News: USDA said that Unknown Destinations bought 101,600 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 334 and 333 December. Support is at 336, 334, and 331 December, and resistance is at 340, 344, and 347 December. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 243, 238, and 235 December. Support is at 244, 242, and 239 December, and resistance is at 250, 255, and 259 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower, but Soybean Oil was higher. It was a quiet session, but funds were good sellers. Soybean Oil was higher as the government is set to released new bio fuels mandates and there are ideas that the mandate will be unchanged. The fundamental reason for Soybeans to work lower was fears of reduced Chinese demand and ideas of improved planting conditions in Brazil and Argentina. China might be forced to reduce demand as the government is making it harder to get safety permits and also is making some economic changes that could make getting credit harder. Meanwhile, it is wetter in the north of Brazil and drier to the south and into Argentina and planting speed can be increased. The crop is close to an average planting pace now after a slow start. Planting progress in Argentina is a little behind the averages, but on about the same pace as last year. Argentina is expected to see some rain in the driest areas during the week, and this rains will be very beneficial if they come. The improved weather in South America has removed a potentially bullish price factor for now.
Overnight News: USDA said that China bought 263,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 988, 983, and 977 January, and resistance is at 1001, 1005, and 1012 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 322.00, 320.00, and 317.00 December, and resistance is at 330.00, 332.00, and 334.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 3280, 3250, and 3220 December. Support is at 3350, 3330, and 3290 December, with resistance at 3400, 3450, and 3480 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on in line with Chicago Soybean Oil. Demand is called steady, especially from processors. Farmers are storing crops now as the harvest comes to a close and as they wait for higher prices, but elevators and crushers appear to have good supplies right now. Palm Oil was lower on weaker export demand and ideas of strong production. India has imposed a tax on vegetable oil imports to protect local industry, and this just points up the demand issues for Palm Oil. Export data so far this month has been weak. Weak demand ideas come even though India is talking about increasing imports due to weak oilseeds production there this year. There is a lot of talk that supplies are more than adequate for demand. Charts show that the trends are down
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 502.00 January. Support is at 504.00, 500.00, and 498.00 January, with resistance at 512.00, 515.00, and 517.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 2560 and 2500 February. Support is at 2570, 2540, and 2510 February, with resistance at 2610, 2650, and 2680 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry this week, but some showers are possible late in the week. Temperatures will be variable.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Novmber 37 Dec 210 Dec 53 Dec 20-Jan minus 9 Dec
December 41 Dec 70 Mar 27-Jan
January 39 March 43 Mar 36 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua
December 66 Dec
January minus 21 Jan
February 67 Mar minus 21 Mar
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 28
Winnipeg–The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 488.29 dn 3.20
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 518.70 up 0.90
2 Can 505.70 up 0.90
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 533.70 up 5.90
2 Can 520.70 up 5.90
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 220.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 219.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 29
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 642.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan 647.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 652.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 662.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 645.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan 650.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 655.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 665.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 662.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 615.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 2,520 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 325.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0800)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 29
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 106,752 lots, or 3.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 3,670 3,670 3,641 3,641 3,666 3,652 -14 70,032 227,592
Mar-18 – – – 3,717 3,717 3,717 0 0 34
May-18 3,790 3,801 3,769 3,769 3,794 3,779 -15 36,424 128,278
Jul-18 – – – 3,815 3,815 3,815 0 0 4
Sep-18 3,855 3,855 3,833 3,834 3,851 3,838 -13 220 1,780
Nov-18 – – – 3,854 3,854 3,854 0 0 4
Jan-19 3,910 3,918 3,902 3,902 3,919 3,911 -8 70 316
Mar-19 – – – 3,901 3,901 3,901 0 0 2
May-19 3,963 3,963 3,949 3,955 3,961 3,955 -6 6 12
Corn
Turnover: 517,522 lots, or 8.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 1,710 1,723 1,709 1,718 1,704 1,715 11 342,082 653,920
Mar-18 1,718 1,727 1,715 1,723 1,713 1,722 9 76 6,160
May-18 1,758 1,770 1,756 1,767 1,753 1,763 10 160,022 498,818
Jul-18 1,775 1,776 1,770 1,775 1,768 1,774 6 158 398
Sep-18 1,765 1,778 1,765 1,775 1,763 1,772 9 15,166 81,040
Nov-18 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,777 1,780 3 18 56
Soymeal
Turnover: 761,218 lots, or 21.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 – – – 2,929 2,940 2,929 -11 0 1,476
Jan-18 2,894 2,901 2,886 2,887 2,901 2,892 -9 231,738 914,272
Mar-18 2,859 2,864 2,849 2,852 2,854 2,855 1 42 308
May-18 2,828 2,835 2,817 2,822 2,833 2,824 -9 499,208 1,677,694
Jul-18 2,826 2,828 2,813 2,828 2,837 2,820 -17 24 170
Aug-18 – – – 2,823 2,824 2,823 -1 0 136
Sep-18 2,821 2,822 2,807 2,810 2,822 2,813 -9 30,206 157,246
Nov-18 – – – 2,826 2,826 2,826 0 0 2
Palm Oil
Turnover: 316,932 lots, or 17.09 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 – – – 5,504 5,504 5,504 0 0 0
Jan-18 5,326 5,344 5,284 5,312 5,318 5,310 -8 68,942 145,596
Feb-18 – – – 5,414 5,414 5,414 0 0 2
Mar-18 – – – 5,440 5,440 5,440 0 0 2
Apr-18 – – – 5,492 5,492 5,492 0 0 10
May-18 5,430 5,446 5,384 5,412 5,422 5,416 -6 240,964 371,096
Jun-18 5,446 5,446 5,446 5,446 5,558 5,446 -112 2 10
Jul-18 – – – 5,528 5,528 5,528 0 0 2
Aug-18 – – – 5,342 5,450 5,342 -108 0 2
Sep-18 5,404 5,420 5,382 5,384 5,404 5,398 -6 7,024 38,362
Oct-18 – – – 5,416 5,416 5,416 0 0 0
Nov-18 – – – 5,434 5,434 5,434 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 443,356 lots, or 26.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 – – – 5,808 5,808 5,808 0 0 2
Jan-18 5,870 5,884 5,816 5,824 5,882 5,842 -40 196,598 528,736
Mar-18 5,962 5,962 5,910 5,910 5,996 5,938 -58 10 16
May-18 6,058 6,064 6,002 6,008 6,068 6,026 -42 237,384 526,974
Jul-18 6,070 6,070 6,070 6,070 6,136 6,070 -66 4 2
Aug-18 – – – 6,144 6,144 6,144 0 0 4
Sep-18 6,186 6,196 6,136 6,140 6,190 6,160 -30 9,360 21,748
Nov-18 – – – 6,176 6,206 6,176 -30 0 2
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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