Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher again and made new highs for the move on Friday. The export sales report was strong and encouraged buying. Trends turned up on the charts last week and it looks like a big low has been completed. The market met some initial swing targets on Friday. Speculators are already long, and mills have been forced to buy to cover open on call positions in the cash market. The futures market is watching the harvest roll along and is debating the demand for US and world Cotton. Some traders say that USDA is seriously underestimating demand for the fiber, while the others look to the high USDA ending stocks estimates and suggest that any demand can be easily met. Farmers are reported to be quiet sellers right now. Harvest conditions are good in just about all areas.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast should get showers over the middle of the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal through tomorrow, then near to below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal early in the week and below normal late in the week. The USDA average price is now 69.74 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 47,951 bales, from 47,951 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 7200 and 7500 March. Support is at 7080, 6960, and 6900 March, with resistance of 7210, 7320, and 7380 March.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Nov 24
As of Nov 17. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Dec 17 8,170 15,668 -7,498 4,857 10,875 -6,018
Mar 18 50,464 49,620 844 10,244 8,234 2,010
May 18 27,138 26,735 403 1,133 1,181 -48
Jul 18 27,849 27,398 451 1,932 2,004 -72
Oct 18 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 18 16,435 16,278 157 10,081 10,032 49
Mar 19 5,657 5,437 220 646 594 52
May 19 1,591 1,563 28 0 0 0
Jul 19 1,703 1,676 27 0 0 0
Dec 19 2,283 2,283 0 3,659 3,553 106
Mar 20 842 842 0 146 146 0
Total 142,132 147,500 -5,368 32,698 36,619 -3,921
Open Open Change
Int Int
Dec 17 12,492 53,899 -41,407
Mar 18 148,077 119,776 28,301
May 18 31,781 24,057 7,724
Jul 18 9,349 9,005 344
Oct 18 3 3 0
Dec 18 21,700 21,509 191
Mar 19 338 342 -4
May 19 9 9 0
Jul 19 166 166 0
Dec 19 39 36 3
Mar 20 0 0 0
Total 223,954 228,802 -4,848

DJ USDA Cotton Ginnings For Period Ending Nov 15-Nov 24
Cotton Ginnings: Running Bales Ginned (Excluding Linters)
As of November 15, Crop Years 2014-2017
by Crop, State, and United States
==========================================================================
Crop and State Running bales ginned
——————————————————-
2014 2015 2016 2017
==========================================================================
number
Upland
US 7,300,000 5,564,800 7,389,350 7,723,500
American Pima
US 230,400 173,450 194,800 203,350
All Cotton
US 7,530,400 5,738,250 7,584,150 7,926,850
==========================================================================
(D) Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations.
Write to Rodney Christian at csstat@dowjones.com

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little lower on Friday and was slightly lower for the week. The harvest is progressing well and more fruit is starting to go to processors and the fresh fruit packers. Trees in Florida that are still alive now are showing fruit of good sizes, although many have lost a lot of the fruit. Florida producers are actively harvesting what is left as cleanup from the hurricane is about over now. The emphasis is on the fresh fruit market now, with processors mostly getting packing house eliminations at this time. However, processors are taking deliveries from producers now as well.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal normal temperatures. Scattered showers are expected this weekend. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. Some showers are possible this weekend. ICE said that 9 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 38 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 171.00 January. Support is at 163.00, 160.00, and 157.00 January, with resistance at 169.00, 170.00, and 175.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were higher in New York and lower in London. A weaker US Dollar gave support to futures in New York, but only helped keep losses to a minimum in London as the market expects an increase in offers from Vietnam in the short term. Many Arabica traders are expecting the market to move higher due to ideas of smaller crops from all over Latin America, and especially Brazil. Brazil exports are reduced on what is called reduced inventories held by exporters and producers, although bearish traders think that the producers are just holding back and trying to force prices higher. Producers are less interested in selling as well as the market tries to gauge production potential in Brazil after earlier drought and cold weather hurt trees at and before flowering time. There is plenty of rain now, but dry weather could return soon and stress the trees again There are also reports of short crops in parts of Central America and some areas in South America due to the lack of farmer investment from the low prices. However, supplies in importer countries are called high and are providing a cushion for buyers, and buyers have been able to keep differentials low even with the low prices in futures.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.922 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 115.92 ct/lb. Brazil will get showers and storms this week. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 1,417 delivery notices were posted against December Contracts today and that total deliveries for the month are now 1,498 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 126.00, 125.00, and 123.00 March, and resistance is at 131.00, 132.00 and 134.00 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1710 January. Support is at 1740, 1710, and 1680 January, and resistance is at 1800, 1830, and 1850 January.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/21/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
142,905 76,926 63,282 5,478 5,101 2,429
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 53.8% 44.3% 3.8% 3.6% 1.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
167 52 45 12 8 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
16,607 30,778 14,719 1,675 774 19,241
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
11.6% 21.5% 10.3% 1.2% 0.5% 13.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
19 45 19 12 7 17
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,829 6,581
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.1% 4.6%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were higher in both New York and London Friday, and chart trends are turning up again as the market rallies in part with strength in energy markets and in part on US Dollar weakness. Brazil features reduced sugarcane crush and continued emphasis on ethanol production and reduced Sugar production as it moves to cover domestic demand at the expense of exports. Trends are turning up in London and in New York after the price action last week on ideas of reduced availability of Sugar to the market. There have been no big demand reports, and the lack of demand against ideas of big world production are keeping the market in a fundamentally bearish mode. Even so, the charts in both New York and London imply that higher prices are still possible
Overnight News: Brazil should feature showers and storms this week. Temperatures should be near to below normal
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1560, 1590, and 1630 March. Support is at 1520, 1500, and 1480 March, and resistance is at 1550, 1580, and 1620 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 406.00 March. Support is at 391.00, 385.00, and 383.00 March, and resistance is at 399.00, 405.00, and 412.00 March.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/21/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
72,049 38,135 47,293 8,218 6,378 2,092
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 52.9% 65.6% 11.4% 8.9% 2.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
123 46 47 9 7 5
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
13,676 8,441 1,933 2,539 1,240 1,788
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
19.0% 11.7% 2.7% 3.5% 1.7% 2.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
16 15 10 4 8 10
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,669 2,885
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.1% 4.0%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower, but New York held the weekly lows and then bounced to more moderate losses. The charts show that Cocoa futures could hit swing targets with further weakness in prices. Some talk of disease in crops in Ivory Coast has created much of the recent buying interest, but no news has been heard to confirm the talk so the fundamental supply side issue faded. It has been unseasonally wet in parts of West Africa, so some diseases could be forming. Demand ideas are holding strong as processor margins have been great. Ivory Coast processing data was strong in a report released Tuesday. World production ideas remain high.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see frequent showers. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at 3.777 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 116 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2080 March. Support is at 2080, 2070, and 2060 March, with resistance at 2130, 2150, and 2180 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1540 March. Support is at 1540, 1510, and 1380 March, with resistance at 1390, 1600, and 1630 March.

DJ CMAA Spot Cocoa Bean And Price Indications – Nov 27
Ex-dock or warehouse U.S. Eastern Seaboard North of Hatteras, in U.S. dollars
per metric ton. Settling price for November 24, 2017. All pricing is considered
nominal. Source: Cocoa Merchants Association of America.
N/A denotes not available.
Type Differential/ Price
Ratio
Main Crop Ghana, Grade 1 338 2,444.50
Main Crop Ivory Coast, Grade 1 238 2,344.50
Main Crop Nigerian, Grade 1 195 2,302.00
Ecuador 178 2,284.50
Sanchez f.a.q. 200 2,307.00
PPP Natural African Type Carton Cocoa Butter 2.96 6,236.72
Cocoa Press Cake – Natural 10/12% Butterfat 0.76 1,600.00

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/21/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
315,606 190,939 189,450 19,061 14,213 21,473
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 60.5% 60.0% 6.0% 4.5% 6.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
152 49 44 14 8 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
22,328 33,520 22,837 4,939 582 29,694
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.1% 10.6% 7.2% 1.6% 0.2% 9.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
20 29 16 10 9 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,336 3,837
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.4% 1.2%

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

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