Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed higher in all three markets, with the best strength in Winter Wheat contracts. There was a news story out about a nuclear cloud that formed in Russia a couple of months ago, and this created some buying interest. However, the market remains quiet ad mostly stable overall, with the US and Russian crop situation the main focus. The markets are consumed with ideas that all the demand is flowing to Russia. The market is noting dry conditions in western Kansas and other parts of the western Great Plains and the La Nina Winter weather forecast. The long-range forecast calls for warmer and drier than normal conditions in the South and Southwest, and it is possible that Winter Wheat will suffer under more stressful conditions. Crop ratings were a little lower this week and have been trending slightly lower the last few weeks. World estimates in general remain large and US offers will need to be low to take business. The market really does not seem to have a fundamental reason to rally or move significantly lower due to the fundamentals. It will be another small US crop as farmers continue to reduce planted area year after year in response to low world and US prices, due mostly to strong competition mostly from Russia. Prices might not improve much for the coming year as Russia expects another big crop that could be big enough to offset lost production in places like the US and Canada and also Argentina and Australia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Northern areas should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see light Snow today and tomorrow, then mostly dry weather. Temperatures should trend to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 418, 414, and 408 December, with resistance at 428, 433, and 439 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 414, 408, and 402 December, with resistance at 424, 427, and 433 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 623, 617, and 615 December, and resistance is at 636, 642, and 646 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower in light volume consolidation trading. The market is holding well, but it looks like something more will be needed to push prices even higher. The Iraq purchase has been the big bull story in the last couple of weeks, but the market was undervalued anyway. The news caught many commercials short in the cash market and speculator short in futures. Futures are now getting back into relation with the cash market. Cash markets in the southern Delta and into Texas are firm on tight supplies, while markets farther north are very quiet and steady. The domestic cash market might stay slow now through the holidays. Futures still can work higher over time to reflect the realities of the domestic cash market.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to below normal through this weekend and near to above normal next week. South Korea bought 118,900 tons of Rice at its tender, mostly from China, but also 11,110 tons from Vietnam, 10,000 tons from Australia, and 17,778 tons from the US.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1212, 1198, and 1191 January, with resistance at 1243, 1263, and 1277 January.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Nov 22
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.34 9.77 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.95 10.12 0.00
Brokens 9.25 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was near unchanged. Some speculative buying was seen, mostly for seasonal considerations. Speculators have been very short and Corn prices usually rally around Thanksgiving time. But there was also some selling around on ideas of good conditions for crops in South America. The trade has been looking at the potential for dry weather to develop in southern Brazil and Argentina, but so far the drought has not been seen. More and more traders expect a short covering rally in Corn. Ideas of big supplies and less than great demand keep pulling the market down fundamentally, but the funds have established a huge and near record short position in futures and might not be able to sell much more. Farmers are not selling much Corn even in the last part of the harvest due to weak basis and futures price levels. Basis levels have improved, but farmer offers remain down, although farmers have been actively delivering on contracts. Corn planting is reported to be active in Argentina and southern Brazil amid improved conditions as the rains have stopped for now and are not expected to return in the short-term. Not much selling is reported in South America. La Nina has started and could create dry weather in South America that could really hurt yields. It is common for Argentina and southern Brazil to have drought in La Nina years, so the weather in these areas will be watched carefully.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 339, 336, and 334 December, and resistance is at 348, 350, and 351 December. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 251, 248, and 246 December, and resistance is at 257, 261, and 265 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were little changed and products were mixed as Soybean Meal turned lower and Soybean Oil worked higher. Soybeans and products normally rally around Thanksgiving, but buying interest has been hard to find. The fundamental reason for Soybeans to work lower was fears of reduced Chinese demand and ideas of improved planting conditions in Brazil. China might be forced to reduce demand as the government is making it harder to get safety permits. Meanwhile, it is wetter in the north of Brazil and drier to the south and into Argentina and planting speed can be increased. The crop is close to an average planting pace now after a slow start. Planting progress in Argentina is a little behind the averages, but on about the same pace as last year. Soybean Oil was higher as the news that India would increase its vegetable oils import tas quickly became part of the market. Soybean Meal was a little lower on spreads, but has been relatively firm overall for the last few weeks.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1000 January. Support is at 983, 977, and 967 January, and resistance is at 995, 1000, and 1005 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 315.00, 313.00, and 310.00 December, and resistance is at 321.00, 325.00, and 330.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 3360 and 3280 December. Support is at 3370, 3330, and 3290 December, with resistance at 3400, 3440, and 3480 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on in line with Chicago Soybean Oil. Demand is called steady. Processors have been the most active buyers. Farmers are storing crops now as the harvest comes to a close and as they wait for higher prices, but elevators and crusher appear to have good supplies right now. Palm Oil was a little higher once again on bottom picking, but remains negative overall. India has imposed a tax on vegetable oil imports to protect local industry, and this just points up the demand issues for Palm Oil. Export data so far this month has been weak. Weak demand ideas come even though India is talking about increasing imports due to weak oilseeds production there this year. There is a lot of talk that supplies are more than adequate for demand. Charts show that the trends are down
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 514.00, 512.00, and 508.00 January, with resistance at 522.00, 527.00, and 529.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 2590, 2570, and 2540 February, with resistance at 2680, 2710, and 2740 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry this week. Temperatures will be variable.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November 38 Dec 225 Dec 53 Dec 24-Jan
December 43 Dec 58 Mar 34 Jan
January 40 March 43 Mar 38 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
November
December minus 28 Dec 65 Dec
January minus 22 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 21
Winnipeg, Nov. 20 – The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 499.89 up 2.49
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 526.00 dn 3.40
2 Can 513.00 dn 3.40
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 536.00 dn 3.40
2 Can 523.00 dn 3.40
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 217.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 215.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 22
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 662.50 +10.50 Unquoted – –
Jan 667.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 670.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 675.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 665.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan 670.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 672.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 677.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 675.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 627.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 2590.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 335.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1100)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 22
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 159,830 lots, or 5.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 3,680 3,700 3,677 3,684 3,662 3,686 24 120,548 261,052
Mar-18 3,737 3,737 3,703 3,721 3,694 3,725 31 20 36
May-18 3,790 3,815 3,786 3,803 3,785 3,799 14 39,000 87,216
Jul-18 – – – 3,815 3,815 3,815 0 0 4
Sep-18 3,845 3,869 3,845 3,858 3,836 3,853 17 216 1,620
Nov-18 – – – 3,854 3,854 3,854 0 0 4
Jan-19 3,923 3,933 3,920 3,928 3,917 3,927 10 46 252
Mar-19 – – – 3,901 3,892 3,901 9 0 2
May-19 – – – 3,941 3,927 3,941 14 0 2
Corn
Turnover: 362,116 lots, or 6.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 1,693 1,700 1,692 1,698 1,691 1,696 5 243,858 759,818
Mar-18 1,704 1,708 1,704 1,704 1,699 1,705 6 40 6,246
May-18 1,746 1,754 1,744 1,753 1,743 1,749 6 109,882 431,600
Jul-18 1,762 1,767 1,762 1,765 1,760 1,764 4 16 496
Sep-18 1,763 1,765 1,756 1,764 1,759 1,761 2 8,312 65,562
Nov-18 1,775 1,776 1,766 1,776 1,774 1,773 -1 8 44
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,192,120 lots, or 34.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 2,949 2,949 2,949 2,949 2,841 2,949 108 4 1,480
Jan-18 2,913 2,926 2,895 2,902 2,908 2,908 0 676,508 1,307,442
Mar-18 2,875 2,875 2,852 2,859 2,864 2,860 -4 70 294
May-18 2,826 2,839 2,814 2,826 2,825 2,825 0 483,304 1,453,542
Jul-18 2,826 2,826 2,816 2,816 2,812 2,818 6 22 160
Aug-18 – – – 2,820 2,820 2,820 0 0 130
Sep-18 2,828 2,839 2,818 2,826 2,828 2,826 -2 32,212 141,350
Nov-18 – – – 2,826 2,826 2,826 0 0 2
Palm Oil
Turnover: 398,530 lots, or 21.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 – – – 5,504 5,504 5,504 0 0 0
Jan-18 5,402 5,446 5,392 5,402 5,406 5,424 18 207,566 244,678
Feb-18 – – – 5,494 5,494 5,494 0 0 2
Mar-18 – – – 5,546 5,546 5,546 0 0 2
Apr-18 – – – 5,636 5,636 5,636 0 0 10
May-18 5,500 5,532 5,484 5,494 5,502 5,508 6 183,852 318,500
Jun-18 – – – 5,558 5,558 5,558 0 0 10
Jul-18 – – – 5,602 5,596 5,602 6 0 4
Aug-18 – – – 5,504 5,504 5,504 0 0 2
Sep-18 5,450 5,488 5,446 5,460 5,456 5,466 10 7,112 36,104
Oct-18 – – – 5,474 5,474 5,474 0 0 0
Nov-18 – – – 5,484 5,514 5,484 -30 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 286,594 lots, or 17.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 5,808 5,808 5,808 5,808 5,702 5,808 106 2 4
Jan-18 5,914 5,936 5,908 5,918 5,896 5,920 24 179,868 633,870
Mar-18 – – – 5,980 5,974 5,980 6 0 10
May-18 6,098 6,112 6,084 6,098 6,076 6,098 22 101,482 379,078
Jul-18 – – – 6,112 6,112 6,112 0 0 6
Aug-18 – – – 6,098 6,062 6,098 36 0 4
Sep-18 6,208 6,230 6,202 6,212 6,188 6,218 30 5,240 18,442
Nov-18 6,292 6,292 6,292 6,292 6,308 6,292 -16 2
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

View Morning Grains Archiveswww.pricegroup.com

A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – an Employee Owned Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Security Question * * Time limit is exhausted. Please reload CAPTCHA.