Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Nov 20
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING NOV 16, 2017
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 11/16/2017 11/09/2017 11/17/2016 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 0 16,006 25,605
CORN 632,793 398,349 876,000 6,583,717 11,738,375
FLAXSEED 48 0 636 4,159 11,832
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 100 699 100 4,692 6,599
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 65,725 142,046 116,158 707,669 825,556
SOYBEANS 2,131,354 2,185,184 2,674,297 19,185,644 21,937,892
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 259,264 308,414 434,001 11,995,575 12,869,056
Total 3,089,284 3,034,692 4,101,192 38,497,462 47,414,915
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

DJ USDA Monthly Grain Inspections: Exported By Rail – Nov 21
MS_GR210
Minneapolis, MN Wed Nov 15, 2017 USDA MARKET NEWS
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT BY RAIL TO CANADA AND MEXICO
REPORT FOR MONTH ENDING OCTOBER 2017
————————————————————————
Oct-17 Sep-17 Year to Date
CANADA Rail Cars Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons
BARLEY 0 0 0 2,395
BARLEY MALTING 0 0 0 16,268
CORN YELLOW 0 0 0 2,496
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 1,297
WHEAT DU 0 0 0 100
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HRS 9 897 400 6,188
WHEAT HRW 9 899 0 6,489
WHEAT SRW 8 798 899 1,997
MEXICO
CORN WHITE 0 0 14,968 65,066
CORN YELLOW 5,557 554,534 821,571 6,544,029 R
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 100
OATS 8 799 1,098 10,728
SORGHUM 0 0 0 160,964
SOYBEANS 3,007 300,076 94,311 1,596,554
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 0 12,574
WHEAT HRS 27 2,694 2,695 80,233
WHEAT HRW 414 41,315 125,240 1,166,611
WHEAT SRW 169 16,865 5,490 127,639
WHEAT SWH 7 699 0 23,452
WHEAT UNCL 0 0 0 0
————————————————————————-
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
R=Revised (YTD Revision Entails Past Month Revisisions)
Year to Date is January
Wheat
DU=Durum
HDWH= Hard White
HRS=Hard Red Spring
HRW=Hard Red Winter
SRW=Soft Red Winter
SWH=Soft White
UNCL=Unclassed
Source: USDA, FGIS
USDA MARKET NEWS SERVICE
Robert Eaton 919-707-3218 Robert.Eaton@ams.usda.gov
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ms_gr210.txt
http://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/livestock-poultry-grain

Crop Progress
Date 19-Nov 12-Nov 2016 Avg
Cotton Harvested 74 64 66 72
Corn Harvested 90 83 96 95
Soybeans Harvested 96 93 98 97
Sorghum Harvested 90 83 93 92
Peanuts Harvested 95 92 95 95
Winter Wheat Emerged 88 84 88 88
Sunflowers Harvested 88 84 88 88

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Very Good
Winter Wheat This Week 3 8 37 44 8
Winter Wheat Last Week 3 8 35 46 8
Winter Wheat Last Year 2 8 32 47 11

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed lower in all three markets. The markets are giving back the gains seen from last week due to a stronger US Dollar and ideas that all the demand is flowing to Russia. The market is noting dry conditions in western Kansas and other parts of the western Great Plains and the La Nina Winter weather forecast. The long range forecast calls for warmer and drier than normal conditions in the South and Southwest, and it is possible that Winter Wheat will suffer under more stressful conditions. Crop ratings were a little lower yesterday. The market continues to be worried about Russia and its ability to control the Wheat offer and price. World estimates in general remain large and US offers will need to be low to take business. The market really does not seem to have a fundamental reason to rally or move significantly lower due to the fundamentals. It will be another small US crop as farmers continue to reduce planted area year after year in response to low world and US prices, due mostly to strong competition mostly from Russia. Prices might not improve much for the coming year as Russia expects another big crop that could be big enough to offset lost production in places like the US and Canada and also Argentina and Australia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Northern areas should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 418, 414, and 408 December, with resistance at 428, 433, and 438 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 414, 408, and 402 December, with resistance at 424, 427, and 433 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 666 and 688 December. Support is at 623, 617, and 615 December, and resistance is at 636, 642, and 646 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher again on follow through buying. It was a positive close and the market is still trading the news that Iraq bought 90,000 tons of long rain milled Rice. The reaction might soon come to a close. The news caught many commercials short in the cash market and speculator short in futures. Futures are now getting back into relation with the cash market. Cash markets in the southern Delta and into Texas are firm ion tight supplies, while markets farther north are very quiet. The domestic cash market might stay slow now through the holidays. Futures still can work higher over time to reflect the realities of the domestic cash market.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be variable.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1212, 1198, and 1191 January, with resistance at 1243, 1263, and 1277 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher. Some speculative buying was seen, mostly for seasonal considerations. Speculators have been very short and Corn prices usually rally around Thanksgiving time. The trade is also looking at the potential for dry weather to develop in southern Brazil and Argentina. Oats closed lower and prices are now below swing targets. More and more traders expect a short covering rally in Corn. Ideas of big supplies and less than great demand keep pulling the market down fundamentally, but it has been the funds who have established a huge and near record short position in futures. Farmers are not selling much Corn even in the last part of the harvest due to weak basis and futures price levels. Basis levels have improved, but farmer offers remain down, although farmers have been actively delivering on contracts. Corn planting is reported to be active in Argentina and southern Brazil amid improved conditions as the rains have stopped for now and are not expected to return in the short term. Not much selling is reported in South America. La Nina has started and could create dry weather in South America that could really hurt yields. It is common for Argentina and southern Brazil to have drought in La Nina years, so the weather in these areas will be watched carefully.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 339, 336, and 334 December, and resistance is at 348, 350, and 351 December. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 251, 248, and 246 December, and resistance is at 257, 261, and 265 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were little changed and products were mixed as Soybean Meal turned higher and Soybean Oil worked lower. Seasonal considerations helped bring Soybeans back as this is normal a rally week for that market. Soybeans and products normally rally around Thanksgiving, and it looks like that rally is underway now. The fundamental reason for Soybeans to work lower was fears of reduced Chinese demand and ideas of improved planting conditions in Brazil. China might be forced to reduce demand as the government is making it harder to get safety permits. Some GMO Soybeans have made it into the human food chain, and this news has caused the government to slow the process until it can identify the problems. However, there was talk of active Chinese buying of US Soybeans on Friday. Meanwhile, it is wetter in the north of Brazil and drier to the south and into Argentina and planting speed can be increased. The crop is close to an average planting pace now after a slow start. Planting progress in Argentina is a little behind the averages, but on about the same pace as last year.
Overnight News: China bought 130,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1000 January. Support is at 983, 977, and 967 January, and resistance is at 995, 1000, and 1005 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 315.00, 313.00, and 310.00 December, and resistance is at 321.00, 325.00, and 330.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 3360 and 3280 December. Support is at 3370, 3330, and 3290 December, with resistance at 3400, 3440, and 3480 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on in line with Chicago Soybean Oil. Demand is called steady. Processors have been the most active buyers. Farmers are storing crops now as the harvest comes to a close and as they wait for higher prices, but elevators and crushers appear to have good supplies right now. Palm Oil was a little higher on bottom picking, but remains negative overall. India has imposed a tax on vegetable oil imports to protect local industry, and this just points up the demand issues for Palm Oil. Export data so far this month has been weak. Weak demand ideas come even though India is talking about increasing imports due to weak oilseeds production there this year. There is a lot of talk that supplies are more than adequate for demand. Charts show that the trends are down
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 514.00, 512.00, and 508.00 January, with resistance at 522.00, 527.00, and 529.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 2630, 2600, and 2570 February, with resistance at 2710, 2740, and 2760 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry this week. Temperatures will be variable.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Novmber 39 Dec 225 Dec 53 Dec 18-Jan
December 43 Dec 58 Mar 30-Jan
January 40 March 47 Mar 36 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua
November
December minus 29 Dec 68 Dec
January minus 22 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 20
Winnipeg–The following are the closing cash grain
prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 499.89 up 2.49
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 526.00 dn 3.40
2 Can 513.00 dn 3.40
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 536.00 dn 3.40
2 Can 523.00 dn 3.40
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 217.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 215.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 21
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 652.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan 655.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 655.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 660.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 657.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan 660.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 660.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 665.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 675.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 625.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 2585.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 339.00 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1485)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 21
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 211,914 lots, or 7.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 3,630 3,690 3,629 3,683 3,635 3,662 27 173,354 277,400
Mar-18 3,715 3,715 3,662 3,690 3,671 3,694 23 24 30
May-18 3,769 3,800 3,765 3,791 3,766 3,785 19 37,160 78,212
Jul-18 – – – 3,815 3,815 3,815 0 0 4
Sep-18 3,840 3,854 3,829 3,845 3,831 3,836 5 706 1,708
Nov-18 – – – 3,854 3,854 3,854 0 0 4
Jan-19 3,903 3,937 3,900 3,933 3,903 3,917 14 120 258
Mar-19 3,850 3,930 3,850 3,919 3,880 3,892 12 252 2
May-19 3,905 3,960 3,905 3,944 3,902 3,927 25 298 2
Corn
Turnover: 401,594 lots, or 6.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-18 1,690 1,696 1,687 1,693 1,687 1,691 4 289,740 762,394
Mar-18 1,702 1,704 1,697 1,701 1,700 1,699 -1 4,530 6,246
May-18 1,743 1,749 1,739 1,745 1,737 1,743 6 102,408 388,318
Jul-18 1,757 1,768 1,757 1,760 1,757 1,760 3 22 498
Sep-18 1,762 1,764 1,756 1,761 1,754 1,759 5 4,884 61,218
Nov-18 1,772 1,775 1,772 1,775 1,762 1,774 12 10 44
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,353,020 lots, or 38.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 2,841 2,841 2,841 2,841 2,881 2,841 -40 2 1,484
Jan-18 2,897 2,931 2,888 2,921 2,880 2,908 28 818,280 1,385,470
Mar-18 2,851 2,875 2,847 2,864 2,853 2,864 11 62 268
May-18 2,815 2,838 2,811 2,832 2,806 2,825 19 511,548 1,386,220
Jul-18 – – – 2,812 2,812 2,812 0 0 160
Aug-18 2,822 2,827 2,817 2,827 2,811 2,820 9 16 130
Sep-18 2,819 2,840 2,814 2,833 2,806 2,828 22 23,112 135,264
Nov-18 – – – 2,826 2,826 2,826 0 0 2
Palm Oil
Turnover: 388,490 lots, or 21.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 5,582 5,582 5,426 5,426 5,706 5,504 -202 4 0
Jan-18 5,400 5,434 5,382 5,388 5,440 5,406 -34 218,776 243,020
Feb-18 – – – 5,494 5,528 5,494 -34 0 2
Mar-18 – – – 5,546 5,580 5,546 -34 0 2
Apr-18 – – – 5,636 5,636 5,636 0 0 10
May-18 5,488 5,528 5,474 5,478 5,540 5,502 -38 157,924 302,560
Jun-18 – – – 5,558 5,596 5,558 -38 0 10
Jul-18 – – – 5,596 5,634 5,596 -38 0 4
Aug-18 – – – 5,504 5,504 5,504 0 0 2
Sep-18 5,440 5,480 5,420 5,440 5,470 5,456 -14 11,786 34,508
Oct-18 – – – 5,474 5,474 5,474 0 0 0
Nov-18 – – – 5,514 5,514 5,514 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 351,366 lots, or 20.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-17 5,702 5,702 5,702 5,702 5,894 5,702 -192 2 6
Jan-18 5,888 5,922 5,864 5,906 5,912 5,896 -16 230,774 638,842
Mar-18 6,008 6,008 5,940 5,940 6,018 5,974 -44 4 10
May-18 6,070 6,104 6,040 6,080 6,086 6,076 -10 117,414 368,088
Jul-18 6,078 6,148 6,078 6,148 6,246 6,112 -134 8 6
Aug-18 – – – 6,062 6,194 6,062 -132 0 4
Sep-18 6,170 6,210 6,148 6,198 6,178 6,188 10 3,164 16,744
Nov-18 – – – 6,308 6,308 6,308 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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