Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher again Friday in response to very strong weekly export sales and on ideas that overall demand has been underestimated. The report gave the market Bulls a shot in the arm at a time when the futures market could be bottoming. The chart patterns suggest that futures could move higher over time, but needs to move above 7000 December and hold above that level to force speculative buying. Speculators are already long. The futures market is watching the harvest roll along and is debating the demand for US and world Cotton. Some traders say that USDA is seriously underestimating demand for the fiber, while the others look to the high USDA ending stocks estimates and suggest that any demand can be easily met. Futures had a muted reaction to the USDA reports and held to the range seen for the last few weeks. Farmers are reported to be quiet sellers right now. Harvest conditions are good in just about all areas.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast should get mostly dry weather today and light showers this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal through Saturday, then near to below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be above and below normal. The USDA average price is now 67.57 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 47,951 bales, from 47,951 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 7040 and 7180 December. Support is at 6950, 6890, and 6860 December, with resistance of 7000, 7020, and 7040 December.

DJ USDA Volume Of Cotton Classed Report – Nov 17
Data quoted in bales for week ending Nov 16. Totals may not add due
to rounding. * denotes data withheld to avoid disclosure of individual
producer information. Source: USDA
Weekly Season Weekly Season
Southeast 459,074 1,768,620 Southwest 595,949 3,262,069
NC 92,743 340,192 Okla 30,965 104,665
SC 39,542 165,747 Texas 561,591 3,149,077
Ga 215,622 880,868 Kansas 3,393 8,327
Ala 78,353 276,829
Fla 13,015 34,529 Far West 44,168 184,144
Va 19,799 70,455 NM 3,308 5,802
Ariz 27,502 94,168
Delta 409,746 2,219,940 Calif 13,358 84,174
Miss 121,905 678,235
Tenn 80,982 353,529 Pima 52,377 189,181
Mo 57,295 325,757 Other 0 0
Ark 102,490 571,127 Total US 1,561,314 7,623,954
La 47,074 291,292 pct tenderable 72.4 77.5

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 14, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 263,598
: Positions :
: 66,268 21,984 44,743 59,621 174,235 77,975 7,696 248,608 248,658: 14,991 14,940
: :
: Changes from: November 7, 2017 (Change in open interest: -37,722) :
: -392 -329 -20,157 -13,846 -11,743 -3,766 -4,137 -38,162 -36,366: 440 -1,356
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 25.1 8.3 17.0 22.6 66.1 29.6 2.9 94.3 94.3: 5.7 5.7
: :
: Total Traders: 279 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 90 68 88 54 70 27 14 226 199:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher on Friday and for the week as the small crop in Florida impacted the market. Production was lower again at 50 million boxes in the recent USDA reports and the market had held strong ever since. The report once again highlighted the damage from the hurricane this year, and ideas are that production in coming reports will drop even more. Brazil weather has improved as groves are now getting rains, but suffered from drought at flowering time. It was also very hot and it is possible that production from Sao Paulo state will be less. The weekly charts indicate that higher prices are coming over time. Trees in Florida that are still alive now are showing fruit of good sizes, although many have lost a lot of the fruit. Florida producers are actively harvesting what is left as cleanup from the hurricane is about over now. The emphasis is on the fresh fruit market now, with processors mostly getting packing house eliminations at this time.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal normal temperatures. Scattered showers are expected this weekend. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. Some showers are possible this weekend. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 29 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 171.00 January. Support is at 163.00, 160.00, and 157.00 January, with resistance at 169.00, 170.00, and 175.00 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 14, 2017
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,887 :
: Positions :
: 3,120 8,112 1,147 0 0 2,522 657 75 718 359 2,604 :
: Changes from: November 7, 2017 :
: 332 1,030 15 0 0 737 -126 8 -144 16 189 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 24.2 62.9 8.9 0.0 0.0 19.6 5.1 0.6 5.6 2.8 20.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 71 :
: 19 19 5 0 0 15 7 4 14 7 13 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: Futures were lower on Friday and lower for the week. Frustrated bullish traders were forced to liquidate as futures fell back into the middle of the range after probing new highs earlier in the week. Many Arabica traders are expecting the market to move higher due to ideas of smaller crops from all over Latin America, and especially Brazil. Brazil exports are reduced on what is called reduced inventories held by exporters and producers. Producers are less interested in selling as well as the market tries to gauge production potential in Brazil after earlier drought and cold weather hurt trees at and before flowering time. There is plenty of rain now, but dry weather could return soon and stress the trees again There are also reports of short crops in parts of Central America and some areas in South America due to the lack of farmer investment from the low prices. However, supplies in importer countries are called high and are providing a cushion for buyers, and buyers have been able to keep differentials low even with the low prices in futures.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are unchanged today and are about 1.910 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 116.42 ct/lb. Brazil will get showers and storms this week and drier weather this weekend. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers or dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 122.00, 121.00, and 119.00 December, and resistance is at 129.00, 130.00 and 133.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1860 and 1890 January. Support is at 1820, 1800, and 1770 January, and resistance is at 1850, 1880, and 1900 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 14, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 243,209
: Positions :
: 36,404 83,003 59,374 86,831 82,856 46,135 9,479 228,745 234,713: 14,464 8,496
: Changes from: November 7, 2017 (Change in open interest: -36,258) :
: -888 -3,688 -18,037 -16,132 -10,960 339 -3,192 -34,718 -35,877: -1,539 -381
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.0 34.1 24.4 35.7 34.1 19.0 3.9 94.1 96.5: 5.9 3.5
: Total Traders: 480 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 138 147 148 131 110 27 16 387 355:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/14/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
135,801 72,945 59,230 5,117 4,756 2,380
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 53.7% 43.6% 3.8% 3.5% 1.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
169 51 46 11 7 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
16,320 31,327 13,088 1,544 465 18,882
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
12.0% 23.1% 9.6% 1.1% 0.3% 13.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
21 45 17 15 7 20
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,524 5,673
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.1% 4.2%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were higher in both New York and London . The market has found some new buying interest due to less production in Brazil and on ideas that speculators are too short in the market. Chart patterns are bullish, and this is forcing the short to cover these positions. Brazil features reduced sugarcane crush and continued emphasis on ethanol production and reduced Sugar production as it moves to cover domestic demand at the expense of exports. Trends are turning up in London and in New York after the price action last week on ideas of reduced availability of Sugar to the market. There have been no big demand reports, and the lack of demand against ideas of big world production are keeping the market in a fundamentally bearish mode. Even so, the charts in both New York and London imply that higher prices are coming.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature showers and storms this week and drier weather this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal today and tomorrow, then near to below normal
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1560, 1590, and 1630 March. Support is at 1520, 1460, and 1430 March, and resistance is at 1580, 1620, and 1650 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 394.00 and 406.00 March. Support is at 386.00, 383.00, and 380.00 March, and resistance is at 396.00, 399.00, and 405.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 14, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 827,722
: Positions :
: 138,820 165,204 135,546 260,477 439,394 220,641 21,429 755,484 761,573: 72,238 66,149
: Changes from: November 7, 2017 (Change in open interest: 3,017) :
: 8,517 -37,581 -17,544 -3,454 53,755 11,209 4,424 -1,272 3,054: 4,289 -37
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.8 20.0 16.4 31.5 53.1 26.7 2.6 91.3 92.0: 8.7 8.0
: Total Traders: 229 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 61 56 73 74 71 22 11 196 179:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/14/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
75,511 38,852 48,601 9,027 6,609 1,396
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 51.5% 64.4% 12.0% 8.8% 1.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
131 48 47 9 7 5
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
15,025 10,871 1,817 3,772 965 1,825
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
19.9% 14.4% 2.4% 5.0% 1.3% 2.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
20 16 12 7 5 9
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,797 3,426
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.0% 4.5%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed a little lower in New York and in London in consolidation trading. The charts show that Cocoa futures could hit swing targets with further weakness in prices. Some talk of disease in crops in Ivory Coast has created much of the recent buying interest, but no news has been Heard to confirm the talk so the fundamental supply side issue faded. It has been unseasonably wet in parts of West Africa, so some diseases could be forming. Demand ideas are holding strong as processor margins have been great. World production ideas remain high.
Overnight News: A few isolated showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.826 million bags. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 57 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2080 March. Support is at 2110, 2100, and 2070 March, with resistance at 2150, 2180, and 2220 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 1890 March. Support is at 1600, 1580, and 1560 March, with resistance at 1630, 1650, and 1670 March.

DJ CMAA Spot Cocoa Bean And Price Indications – Nov 17
Ex-dock or warehouse U.S. Eastern Seaboard North of Hatteras, in U.S. dollars
per metric ton. Settling price for November 17, 2017. All pricing is considered
nominal. Source: Cocoa Merchants Association of America.
N/A denotes not available.
Type Differential/ Price
Ratio
Main Crop Ghana, Grade 1 335 2,466.00
Main Crop Ivory Coast, Grade 1 250 2,381.00
Main Crop Nigerian, Grade 1 190 2,321.00
Ecuador 200 2,331.00
Sanchez f.a.q. 220 2,351.00
PPP Natural African Type Carton Cocoa Butter 2.93 6,233.18
Cocoa Press Cake – Natural 10/12% Butterfat 0.75 1,600.00

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 14, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 267,253
: Positions :
: 62,609 55,181 46,251 97,371 147,302 43,658 11,035 249,889 259,769: 17,364 7,484
: Changes from: November 7, 2017 (Change in open interest: -10,517) :
: 2,782 -6,401 2,995 -12,817 -421 -3,565 -5,844 -10,605 -9,672: 88 -845
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.4 20.6 17.3 36.4 55.1 16.3 4.1 93.5 97.2: 6.5 2.8
: Total Traders: 269 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 99 78 73 47 43 29 8 221 162:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/14/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
319,000 191,478 195,394 17,372 13,739 22,413
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 60.0% 61.3% 5.4% 4.3% 7.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
156 48 45 14 8 14
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
26,309 30,939 21,465 5,075 647 30,927
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
8.2% 9.7% 6.7% 1.6% 0.2% 9.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
24 26 15 11 11 20
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,961 3,476
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.2% 1.1%

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

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