Bill Moore
About The Author

Bill Moore

William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337

Written 11/13/17)

JAN SOYBEANS

The trade eagerly awaited the 11/9 USDA Report & were greeted with a bearish surprise – especially for corn – where both total production & yield came out over the expected ranges!  It appears that seed genetics baled the mkt out – after a rough weather start!  Going forward, South America growing weather will replace US Harvest as the main key.

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FACTOR S IMPACTNG THE MKT

  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 2.219 MMT – Thur sales were 1.16 MMT (1.00- 2.050) Nov 13 –      135,000 MT           Philippines
  • THUR 11/9 – USDA REPORT – the Bean #’s were lower/unchanged from the Oct Report but higher than expectations – the entire mkt was pulled Down by corn’s bearish surprise

PRODUCTION   4.425 BB    (exp – 4.404, Oct – 4.431)

YIELD                  49.5 B/A    (exp –   49.2,   Oct –  49.5)

US STOCKS         425            (exp  –  420,    Oct –  430)

GLOBAL              97.9           (exp   – 95.5,    Oct –  96.1)

  • HARVEST PROGRESS – Beans are 93% in (lw – 90, avg – 95) Ill – 95 (98)     Ind – 89(85)    Iowa – 97 (92)
  • SOUTH AMERICA – central & Northern Brazil received good rains Whereas Southern Brazil & Argentina are drier & both these could help Advance planting
  • US DOLLAR – while the Dec $$ contract has rallied 400 points since Sept 1, its still down 900 points from the first of the year!  A real positive For US exports

After breaking the $10.00 mark for the 3rd time since Mid-Oct, Jan Beans retreated rapidly from this level on the heels of the USDA Report – back into its recent range! It will take S/A weather issues to get it back up there!

CORN

More than a few eyebrows were raised by the USDA’s Nov 9 Supply & Demand report – at 14,568 BB & a record 175.4 Bu/A.  But the technical damage does not really match the bearish #’s – as the mkt only broke down to the low end of its 2-month range (342-360) & has since consolidated there.  Possibly, the mkt feels “enough is enough” and that current mkt levels have already discounted the 14.2 – 14.5 crop!

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FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 37,000 MT – Thur sales were a whopping 2.9 MMT (1.0 – 2.6)

Nov 7           130,000        Unk

Nov 6           130,000        Unk

Nov 3           102,400        Mexico

Nov 3           135,000        S Korea

Nov 3           251,000        Unk

Nov 2           845,820        Mexico

Nov 2           510.540        Mexico

  • 11/9 USDA REPORT – well.” nobody saw that coming” – a big jump In corn production & a “record “ 175.4 B/A yield!

Production            14,578 BB   (exp – 14,323, Oct – 14,280)

Yield                        175.4 BB     (exp –  172.3,   Oct –  171.8)

US STOCKS             2,487           (exp –  2360,     Oct –  2340)

GLOBAL                  203.9           (exp  –  201.5,    Oct –  201.0)

  • HARVEST PROGRESS – is 83% in (avg – 91) Ill  –  90 (96)     Ind –  80 (90)    Iowa –  85 (92)
  • TURN THE PAGE – harvest will soon be in the rear mirror & focus Will be centered on S/A planting, exports & the US Dollar – the next USDA Report will be the final #’s in Jan

Whether, 14.2 or 14.5 BB, the corn crop is substantial, but the mkt has been trading on those #’s for 2-3 months.  Plus, current prices are on a 10-year low Is ENOUGH ENOUGH?  We think so!!

DEC WHEAT

Unlike its sister mkts, Dec Corn & Jan Beans, Dec Wht had a positive outcome following the Nov 9 USDA Report – benefitting from lower US & World Stockpiles!  While corn & beans were solidly lower, wht (Chicago, KC & Minn) eked out a 2-3 cent higher close – enabling it to stay in its recent tight trading range!  This is good news for the mkt – indicating it may have finally found a price level- competitive on the World Mkt!

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DEC CATTLE

The unrelenting “BULL MKT” that commenced in Mid-Aug & extended for $21 (107-128) finally surrendered in early Nov with a sweeping technical key reversal. On Nov 1, Dec Cat peaked out at 128 – but closed just over 124 – posting an outside day down solid demand was victimized by higher prices & the upcoming Thanksgiving Day Holiday (a turkey favorite) – while higher production chugged along!  The net result was an $8.00 break (128-120) off the highs – as the mkt searches for a “demand friendly” price level!

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DEC HOGS

Dec Hogs peaked out about the same time as Dec Cat – succumbing to the cattle break, cheap corn & big production –losing $6 (68-62) after rallying $12 (56-58) since late Sept!

  • 4th Qtr Production is expected to be a record high – up 5.8% – as well 1st Qtr Prod is also pegged at a record 6.71 BP – up 4.7%!
  • The 11/9 crop report predicted corn yields at a record 175.4 B/A – Implying more feeding of hogs in 2018
  • Higher prices in late Oct coupled with the impending Thanksgiving Holiday have put the KABASH on demand!

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Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337

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