Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher for Friday and a little higher for the week. Futures had a muted reaction to the USDA reports last week and held to the range seen for the last few weeks. USDA showed increased production instead of a decrease that had been expected by the trade. Ending stocks were also higher. Unaccounted demand was cut slightly to help form the increased ending stocks. Some in the trade think that the world demand for US Cotton has been underestimated and that demand will absorb a lot of the surplus. Chart patterns imply that the market is content to hold at current levels. Harvest is progressing, but farmers are reported to be quiet sellers right nos so the cash market has some demand that needs to be satisfied. Good commercial buying was seen at the lows last week. Harvest conditions are good in just about all areas. The market hopes for increased US export demand, and demand has improved over the last few weeks.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be mostly above normal. The USDA average price is now 66.78 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 46,922 bales, from 46,922 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6800, 6780, and 6750 December, with resistance of 6950, 7000, and 7020 December.

DJ USDA Volume Of Cotton Classed Report – Nov 10
Data quoted in bales for week ending Nov 9. Totals may not add due
to rounding. * denotes data withheld to avoid disclosure of individual
producer information. Source: USDA
Weekly Season Weekly Season
Southeast 394,836 1,309,565 Southwest 522,037 2,661,421
NC 77,269 247,449 Okla 29,450 73,711
SC 37,118 126,205 Texas 492,587 2,587,710
Ga 197,018 665,264 Kansas* – –
Ala 59,543 198,477
Fla 7,508 21,514 Far West 34,333 139,976
Va 16,380 50,656 NM 2,215 2,494
Ariz 14,132 66,666
Delta 403,210 1,810,194 Calif 17,986 70,816
Miss 127,433 556,330
Tenn 56,564 272,547 Pima 50,641 135,608
Mo 63,469 268,462 Other 0 0
Ark 115,200 468,637 Total US 1,405,057 6,056,764
La 40,544 244,218 pct tenderable 73.2 78.9

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher on Friday and for the week as the market reacted to the USDA production reports. Production was lower again at 50 million boxes and the market started to work higher after an initial reaction down. The report once again highlighted the damage from the hurricane this year. Production is now about two-thirds of what was expected at the start of the growing season. The demand side remains weak. However, for now it looks like the supply side has taken over as the force in the markets. Brazil weather has improved as groves are now getting rains, but suffered from drought at flowering time. It was also very hot and it is possible that production from Sao Paulo state will be less. The weekly charts indicate that higher prices are coming over time.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures. Scattered showers are expected this weekend. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. Some showers are possible this weekend. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 163.00, 166.00, and 171.00 January. Support is at 157.00, 155.00, and 152.00 January, with resistance at 163.00, 165.00, and 166.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York was higher again on Friday on reduced offers from Brazil and ideas of reduced offers from Vietnam. London closed a little lower. Brazil exports are reduce don what is called reduced inventories held by exporters and producers. Producers are less interested in selling as well as the market tries to gauge production potential in Brazil after earlier drought and cold weather hurt trees at and before flowering time. New York futures could be forming a bottom at this time. Ideas are that the funds and industry need to buy in New York, but Arabica demand is tepid and differentials bids remain weak. Europe is paying better than the US, but differentials overall are not strong.. Rains are back in the forecast for parts of the Coffee areas of Brazil, and recent rains have improved goring conditions for flowering and initial development of cherries. Most areas will need to see some consistent rainfall now to keep the potential for a big crop alive as trees need to recover from stress from the production year last year and also the cold and dry Winter.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are slightly higher today and are about 1.911 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 118.78 ct/lb. Brazil will get more showers today and tomorrow, then drier weather. Temperatures should average near to above normal today and tomorrow, then near to below normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 134.00 and 141.00 December. Support is at 125.00, 122.00, and 121.00 December, and resistance is at 128.00, 130.00 and 133.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1710 January. Support is at 1800, 1770, and 1740 January, and resistance is at 1850, 1880, and 1900 January.

Volcafe sees Brazil 2017/2018 season stocks of arabica coffee at 5-year low – Reuters News
11-Nov-2017 04:38:26 PM
HERRADURA, Costa Rica, Nov 11 (Reuters) – Volcafe, the Swiss-based coffee division of commodity trade house ED&F Man, said on Saturday that it sees world top coffee producer Brazil’s stocks of arabica ending the 2017/2018 season at a five-year low of 15 million 60-kg bags.
Brazil arabica production in the 2017/2018 season is seen at 36.7 million bags and exports at 27.3 million bags, down from production of 45.8 million bags and exports of 29.9 million bags in 2016/2017, said Hannah Rizki, Volcafe’s head of coffee research.
In Brazil, the off-season year will see a 5.3 million bag deficit, following a surplus of 3.1 million bags the prior season, said Rizki.
(Reporting by Enrique Andrés Pretel; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/07/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
133,306 73,779 60,588 5,787 4,321 2,284
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 55.3% 45.5% 4.3% 3.2% 1.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
163 49 44 11 7 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
15,492 30,549 12,139 1,032 872 16,872
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
11.6% 22.9% 9.1% 0.8% 0.7% 12.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
20 44 17 11 8 18
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,921 5,681
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.4% 4.3%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were higher again in New York as Brazil mills are choosing to produce more ethanol and on some talk of reduced production in India. India says it will produce more than enough for domestic consumption, but did not mention that it would be exporting this year after the very short crop last year. London was a little lower. Trends are turning up in London and in New York after the price action last week on ideas of reduced availability of Sugar to the market.. There have been no big demand reports, but the price action and the intermarket spreads suggest that someone is short in refined Sugar at this time. The fundamental side of the market remains mostly negative due to ideas of big world production as seen in the ISO estimates last week. Upside price potential is limited as there are still projections for a surplus in the world production,and these projections for the surplus seem to be bigger. Even so, the charts in both New York and London imply that higher prices are coming.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature scattered showers today and tomorrow, then drier weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal today and tomorrow, then near to below normal
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1510, 1530, and 1560 March. Support is at 1460, 1430, and 1400 March, and resistance is at 1520, 1530, and 1580 March. Trends in London are up with objectives of 394.00 and 406.00 March. Support is at 383.00, 380.00, and 377.00 March, and resistance is at 393.00, 399.00, and 405.00 March.

DJ Brazil Center-South Sugar Crush Down 5.6% in 2nd Half of October -Unica

By Jeffrey T. Lewis

SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed less cane in the second half of October compared with a year earlier, according to industry group Unica.
Center-south mills crushed 30 million metric tons of cane in the period, a decrease of 5.6% from the same period a year earlier. They produced 1.9 million tons of sugar, down 8.7%, and made 1.6 billion liters of ethanol, an increase of 19.6%.
The production mix for the second half of last month was 42.85% sugar to 57.15% ethanol. A year earlier, the mix was 49.3% sugar and 50.7% ethanol.
Brazil is the world’s biggest sugar producer and exporter, and the center-south grows about 90% of the country’s cane.
In the season from April 1 through Oct. 31, mills in the region crushed 529.6 million tons of cane, down 2% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production rose 2.8% to 33.1 million tons, and ethanol output fell 0.4% to 22.6 billion liters.
The production mix for the season through Oct. 31 was 47.6% sugar to 52.4% ethanol. A year earlier, the mix was 46.7% sugar and 53.3% ethanol.

Write to Jeffrey T. Lewis at jeffrey.lewis@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
11-13-17 0730ET
Copyright (c) 2017 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/07/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
83,808 47,554 49,435 9,558 6,580 1,536
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 56.7% 59.0% 11.4% 7.9% 1.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
137 51 51 11 7 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
13,147 17,458 1,846 3,319 842 2,496
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
15.7% 20.8% 2.2% 4.0% 1.0% 3.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
15 25 10 7 5 10
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,351 3,614
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.2% 4.3%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher and near the highs for the day and week in both New York and London Trends are up in both markets. Some talk of disease in crops in Ivory Coast has created much of the recent buying interest. At least one advisory and analytical brokerage was said to be issuing buy recommendations last week due to the charts and disease talk. Demand ideas are getting stronger. Callebrut said yesterday that its Cocoa grinding margins were near six-year highs, implying good demand for finished products like Chocolate. World production ideas remain high. Harvest reports show good to very good production will be seen this year in West Africa. The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East Africa is getting better rains now along with cooler temperatures. Good conditions are still seen in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: A few isolated showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.920 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 2280 and 2370 December. Support is at 2160, 2120, and 2100 December, with resistance at 2230, 2260, and 2280 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1680 and 1760 December. Support is at 1600, 1560, and 1530 December, with resistance at 1650, 1690, and 1730 December.

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/07/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
325,586 206,971 194,591 16,644 16,002 22,171
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 63.6% 59.8% 5.1% 4.9% 6.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
152 47 46 14 8 13
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
23,840 41,770 18,962 5,704 492 27,506
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.3% 12.8% 5.8% 1.8% 0.2% 8.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
20 27 13 14 9 20
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,788 4,091
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.2% 1.3%
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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