Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 13
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov. 14, 2017 15 Nov 10, 2017
SOYBEAN November Nov. 14, 2017 137 Nov 09, 2017

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed higher in all three markets on follow through buying tied to the USDA crop reports. The supply and demand estimates showed the potential for increased demand for US Wheat, and this led to slightly lower ending stocks. However, world estimates remain large and USDA is showing that plenty of competition will be out there for sales. Funds were buyers to reduce a big short position, and could continue to buy as the daily charts are showing the potential for short-term lows in winter wheat markets and a uptrend in Minneapolis. The market really does not seem to have a fundamental reason to rally or move significantly lower due to the fundamentals. US planting weather in the Great Plains and Midwest should improve somewhat this week after a very cold few days last week. It will be another small US crop as farmers continue to reduce planted area year after year in response to low world and US prices, due mostly to strong competition mostly from Russia. Prices might not improve much for the coming year as Russia expects another big crop that could be big enough to offset lost production in places like the US and Canada and also Argentina and Australia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly above normal. Northern areas should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal next week. The Canadian Prairies should see light Snow in the north early in the week and to the east later in the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 427, 422, and 419 December, with resistance at 434, 443, and 446 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 428, 423, and 419 December, with resistance at 439, 441, and 444 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 666 and 688 December. Support is at 645, 633, and 628 December, and resistance is at 653, 658, and 668 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower in quiet trading on Friday. Futures trading has been slow ever since prices fell sharply a couple of weeks ago, and the cash market has also been quiet. Cash markets in the southern Delta and into Texas are firm, while markets farther north have offered lower prices due to the futures weakness and are very quiet. USDA also cut export demand due to the short crop, but export demand remains very strong at this time and prices will need to work higher to cut this demand soon. USDA also lowered its average farm price slightly. World data showed lower month to month ending stocks estimates.
Overnight News: The Delta should get light precipitation through Friday, then mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average below normal today and tomorrow, then above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1138, 1134, and 1128 January, with resistance at 1155, 1166, and 1169 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was higher on what was called speculative buying and Oats closed a little lower on what appeared to be some speculative profit taking. Corn closed lower for the week in response to the USDA production estimates, while Oats closed higher and near the top end of the trading range. The USDA reports showed higher yields and production potential than anyone expected and were negative for prices. Ending stocks were also higher than trade guesses. however, futures have generally held to moderate losses due to good consumer buying and some speculative was seen on the way down. The USDA reports overshadowed a very strong weekly export sales report for Corn that showed the best week for export demand in years. The harvest has been delayed, but somewhat improved harvest weather is expected in the Midwest this week. Farmers are not selling much Corn due to expanding harvest activity and on weak basis and futures price levels.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 341, 339, and 333 December. Support is at 340, 334, and 328 December, and resistance is at 348, 350, and 351 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 277, 287, and 291 December. Support is at 271, 268, and 265 December, and resistance is at 277, 283, and 289 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were a Little higher on Friday on what was called light volume speculative buying. Soybeans were little changed for the week, but have a price negative feel. The main feature of trade for the week was the USDA crop production reports that showed unchanged yields and slightly higher than expected production. Ending stocks were above the average trade guess, but within the range of trade guesses. Soybeans found renewed selling when the January contract failed to hold above $10.00 in response to the reports. The move below that level created a lot of liquidation selling. The US harvest is mostly over for Soybeans now. Reports indicate that yields have been mixed at the end of the crop. There are still forecasts around for weather patterns to change in Brazil and bring some badly needed rain to the north and drier conditions to the south and into Argentina. Some planting has been reported now in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goias as some rains have fallen in those states. The overall planting pace remains a little behind normal due to the poor weather at the start of the planting season.
Overnight News: Philippines bought 135,000 tons of US Soybean Meal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 980 and 965 January. Support is at 984, 981, and 978 January, and resistance is at 995, 1000, and 1005 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 309.00 and 304.00 December. Support is at 312.00, 310.00, and 308.00 December, and resistance is at 315.00, 318.00, and 321.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3560, 3590, and 3600 December. Support is at 3480, 3460, and 3420 December, with resistance at 3510, 3540, and 3560 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower yesterday in reaction to the price action in Chicago and to currency moves. Harvest progress should be winding down now and demand is called steady.. Farmers are starting to store crops now as the harvest comes to a close and as they wait for higher prices, but elevators and crusher appear to have good supplies right now. Palm Oil was lower on selling tied to weak export data from the private surveyors and the bearish MPOB reports. Speculators also sold as Chicago worked lower. MPOB showed higher than expected production, but in line ending stocks levels. There was some renewed talk of lower production in coming reports. However, there is a lot of talk that supplies are more than adequate for demand. Charts show that the market has held Support, but the market acts weak.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 510.00 and 502.00 January. Support is at 513.00, 512.00, and 508.00 January, with resistance at 520.00, 523.00, and 529.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2770 and 2720 January. Support is at 2770, 2740, and 2710 January, with resistance at 2810, 2840, and 2860 January.

DJ Canadian Oilseed Processors Association Weekly Crush – Nov 10
WINNIPEG–The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association
reported the Canadian oilseed crush for the week ended Nov. 8, 2017 as
follows:
Figures are in metric tons. R-denotes revision.
Cumulative
Week 2017/18 2016/17 2017/18 2016/17
Ended Canola Soybns
Nov 08 195,151 2,452,558 2,472,444 31,845 491,260 547,999
Nov 01 186,758 2,255,048 2,291,178 52,837 459,415 507,311
Oct 25 196,592 2,069,915 2,122,536 36,302 410,319 461,941
Oct 18 187,047 1,873,323 1,923,677 42,094 374,017 433,027
Oct 11 204,820 1,686,276 1,740,357 32,388 331,923 391,820
Crush Capacity Utilization
This week 2017/18 2016/17
Canola 88.0% 83.2% 86.1%
Soybeans 48.4% 56.1% 62.0%
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, 204-414-9084)

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Nov 10
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the week ended November 5, 2017. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This week 2986.5 608.4 178.7 245.7 87.1 1299.0 295.5 36.7 6890.8
Week ago 3274.5 592.1 207.0 300.9 85.2 1503.0 304.5 56.7 7495.1
Year ago 2108.7 585.7 148.3 217.5 72.5 1635.8 327.4 182.2 6592.3
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 315.9 62.5 44.9 68.3 15.6 401.1 13.5 8.4 1075.8
Week Ago 336.1 85.4 47.6 85.0 14.9 377.6 18.6 11.6 1119.6
To Date 4896.4 912.4 725.4 767.1 108.1 5685.0 1201.8 120.4 15996.9
Year Ago 4633.8 1105.6 590.4 635.7 78.0 5390.0 1960.0 93.6 16339.8
TERMINAL RECEIPTS – Note: Large revisions have been reported by licensed
elevators that affected Crop Year to Date totals this week.
This Week 283.4 110.2 0.1 55.7 10.9 321.3 0.7 10.9 1225.5
Week Ago 346.8 78.7 1.8 45.9 2.1 235.1 4.9 0.0 1158.5
To Date 5402.7 1278.6 44.7 416.6 49.8 3164.6 839.1 57.0 13671.7
Year Ago 5679.8 1301.5 82.2 248.3 74.3 2785.2 1445.9 150.4 14595.7
EXPORTS
This Week 238.4 61.1 52.8 44.7 19.0 470.2 0.6 0.3 1219.3
Week Ago 396.8 119.1 30.7 57.5 0.3 165.2 1.4 0.1 1064.9
To Date 4061.6 1036.7 503.9 432.9 71.0 2858.8 850.5 63.7 11192.5
Year Ago 3764.3 886.6 395.8 199.8 68.5 2281.3 1464.6 99.7 10853.1
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 88.1 31.3 4.4 22.6 0.6 142.0 3.5 12.0 394.7
Week Ago 87.6 3.8 5.9 22.4 1.1 176.5 4.2 17.1 506.5
To Date 1544.7 215.7 69.3 340.0 13.0 2299.4 55.9 174.1 5497.0
Year Ago 816.7 89.6 119.4 363.9 14.6 2401.2 48.7 118.1 4286.1
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye soybeans
canary seed mustard seed beans lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Drier today, but mixed precipitation possible early in the weekend. Temperatures will average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November 32 Dec 208 Dec 50 Dec 35 Jan 4-Dec
December 42 Dec 55 Dec 37 Jan
January 39 March 41 Mar 41 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
November
December minus 25 Dec 69 Dec
January minus 21 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 9
Winnipeg–The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 500.80 up 0.70
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 525.50 dn 5.30
2 Can 512.50 dn 5.30
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 535.50 dn 5.30
2 Can 522.50 dn 5.30
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 217.00 up 4.00
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 213.00 up 1.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – November 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 682.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 682.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 690.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 690.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 687.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 687.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 695.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 695.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 707.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 640.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 2,760 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 342.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.1892)
.
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 78,630 lots, or 2.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 3,511 3,511 3,511 0 0 0
Jan-18 3,666 3,676 3,657 3,668 3,669 3,669 0 67,626 304,106
Mar-18 – – – 3,673 3,673 3,673 0 0 30
May-18 3,779 3,792 3,774 3,787 3,782 3,786 4 10,864 70,724
Jul-18 – – – 3,796 3,796 3,796 0 0 4
Sep-18 3,831 3,846 3,830 3,841 3,837 3,839 2 120 1,384
Nov-18 – – – 3,854 3,854 3,854 0 0 4
Jan-19 3,890 3,905 3,890 3,895 3,892 3,898 6 20 254
Mar-19 – – – 3,880 3,880 3,880 0 0 2
Corn
Turnover: 393,370 lots, or 6.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 1,650 1,650 1,650 0 0 0
Jan-18 1,685 1,693 1,682 1,687 1,682 1,685 3 301,960 851,282
Mar-18 1,698 1,707 1,698 1,707 1,702 1,702 0 20 1,556
May-18 1,738 1,741 1,734 1,740 1,730 1,737 7 85,212 344,560
Jul-18 1,756 1,759 1,753 1,759 1,748 1,756 8 12 488
Sep-18 1,751 1,756 1,746 1,755 1,745 1,751 6 6,166 53,210
Soymeal
Turnover: 987,368 lots, or 27.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 2,808 2,808 2,808 0 0 0
Dec-17 2,857 2,860 2,849 2,860 2,845 2,855 10 6 1,572
Jan-18 2,795 2,834 2,794 2,834 2,801 2,815 14 679,160 1,476,832
Mar-18 2,808 2,828 2,808 2,828 2,815 2,818 3 4 250
May-18 2,743 2,767 2,740 2,764 2,750 2,753 3 294,596 1,143,378
Jul-18 2,762 2,762 2,760 2,760 2,775 2,760 -15 10 174
Aug-18 2,756 2,775 2,756 2,775 2,773 2,763 -10 10 136
Sep-18 2,761 2,776 2,746 2,773 2,762 2,765 3 13,582 108,090
Palm Oil
Turnover: 275,500 lots, or 15.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 5,798 5,798 5,798 0 0 0
Dec-17 – – – 5,706 5,706 5,706 0 0 0
Jan-18 5,624 5,644 5,606 5,630 5,646 5,624 -22 202,922 301,170
Feb-18 – – – 5,666 5,666 5,666 0 0 2
Mar-18 – – – 5,676 5,676 5,676 0 0 2
Apr-18 – – – 5,796 5,796 5,796 0 0 10
May-18 5,762 5,762 5,724 5,744 5,754 5,740 -14 70,390 246,534
Jun-18 – – – 5,780 5,780 5,780 0 0 8
Jul-18 – – – 5,750 5,750 5,750 0 0 4
Aug-18 – – – 5,698 5,698 5,698 0 0 2
Sep-18 5,666 5,672 5,640 5,662 5,686 5,654 -32 2,188 22,254
Oct-18 – – – 5,666 5,666 5,666 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 250,448 lots, or 15.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 5,952 5,952 5,952 0 0 0
Dec-17 6,060 6,060 5,936 5,936 6,044 5,998 -46 4 8
Jan-18 6,086 6,098 6,066 6,074 6,108 6,080 -28 173,800 611,292
Mar-18 6,160 6,176 6,160 6,176 6,140 6,168 28 4 12
May-18 6,264 6,274 6,238 6,250 6,282 6,254 -28 75,394 284,730
Jul-18 – – – 6,306 6,306 6,306 0 0 2
Aug-18 – – – 6,360 6,360 6,360 0 0 4
Sep-18 6,378 6,378 6,336 6,348 6,392 6,348 -44 1,246 11,650
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

View Morning Grains Archiveswww.pricegroup.com

A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – an Employee Owned Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Security Question * * Time limit is exhausted. Please reload CAPTCHA.