Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 9
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov. 10, 2017 31 Nov 08, 2017
SOYBEAN November Nov. 10, 2017 133 Nov 07, 2017

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Nov 9
For the week ended Nov 2, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 781.7 0.0 16291.2 17072.8 5476.5 60.0
hrw 509.1 0.0 6268.2 7140.7 1937.1 7.4
srw 44.6 0.0 1536.2 1472.0 523.2 38.8
hrs 153.7 0.0 4552.2 5261.9 1701.1 12.3
white 74.4 0.0 3675.5 2874.6 1256.7 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 259.1 323.7 58.5 1.5
corn 2364.5 574.2 19393.2 25985.3 13663.4 999.0
soybeans 1160.6 0.4 31478.3 37065.5 16771.5 137.6
soymeal 212.9 0.0 4188.6 3938.4 3475.9 120.6
soyoil 15.9 0.0 183.8 338.6 115.3 0.0
upland cotton 205.3 31.2 8505.8 6183.1 6608.1 897.2
pima cotton 13.4 0.0 403.2 382.7 345.0 19.7
sorghum 308.1 0.0 2080.1 1811.7 1502.4 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 37.6 14.4 23.4 7.1
rice 73.4 0.0 1144.0 1386.4 544.8 0.0

DJ Brazil 2017-2018 Soybean Harvest Forecast Up; Corn Forecast Trimmed
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SÃO PAULO–Brazilian crop agency Conab raised its forecast for soybean production for the 2017-2018 growing season as the output from the states of the southern region is expected to increase slightly.
The soybean crop will be in a range from 106.4 million metric tons to 108.6 million tons in the current season, Conab said Thursday. In October, the agency forecast a range of 106 million tons to 108.3 million tons. In the 2016-2017 season, Brazil grew a record 114.1 million tons of soybeans.
Conab raised its forecast for the southern states of Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná and Santa Catarina to a range of 37.4 million tons to 37.8 million tons, from October’s forecast of a range of 37.3 million tons to 37.7 million tons.
Conab trimmed its forecast for Brazil’s total corn crop for 2017-2018 to a range of 91.6 million tons to 93.1 million tons. The agency forecast in October was for a crop of 92.2 million tons to 93.6 million tons, and in 2016-2017 Brazil produced 97.8 million tons of corn.
Brazilian farmers often grow two corn crops per year, taking advantage of the country’s mild winter weather.
Brazil is the world’s second-biggest producer of soybeans, after the U.S.

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2017 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday.
U.S. 2017 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA Oct. USDA 2016
Corn Production 14,323 14,127-14,459 14,280 15,148
Corn Yield 172.3 170.0-174.0 171.8 174.6
Harvested Acres 83.1 83.1-83.5 83.1 86.7
Soybean Production 4,404 4,340-4,467 4,431 4,296
Soybean Yield 49.2 48.5-49.9 49.5 52.0
Harvested Acres 89.4 88.5-89.5 89.5 82.7
Corn Harvested Soybean Harvested
Production Yield Acres Production Yield Acres
Advanced Market 14,326 172.4 83.1 4,431 49.5 89.5
AgriSource 14,388 173.2 83.1 4,340 48.5 89.5
Agrivisor 14,313 172.2 83.1 4,438 49.6 89.5
Allendale 14,376 172.4 83.1 4,401 49.2 89.5
DC Analysis 14,376 173.0 83.1 4,416 49.4 89.5
Doane 14,296 172.0 83.1 4,420 49.4 88.5
EDF Man 14,459 174.0 83.1 4,375 49.0 89.5
Farm Futures 14,366 172.8 N/A 4,429 49.5 N/A
Hueber Report 14,250 172.0 N/A 4,380 49.0 N/A
INTL FCStone 14,434 173.7 83.1 4,467 49.9 89.5
Sid Love Consulting 14,335 172.5 83.1 4,431 49.5 89.5
MaxYield 14,290 172.0 83.1 4,390 49.0 89.5
Price Group 14,335 172.5 83.1 4,396 49.1 89.5
Prime Ag 14,335 172.5 83.1 4,385 49.0 89.5
RJO Brien 14,330 172.4 N/A 4,410 49.3 N/A
RMC 14,228 170.4 83.5 4,382 49.4 88.7
US Commodities 14,302 172.1 83.1 4,412 49.3 89.5
Vantage RM 14,280 171.8 83.1 4,404 49.2 89.5
Western Milling 14,127 170.0 83.1 4,341 48.5 89.5
Zaner 14,310 172.2 83.1 4,431 49.5 89.5

DJ U.S. November Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2017-18, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2017-18
Average Range USDA Oct.
Corn 2,360 2,212-2,431 2,340
Soybeans 420 340-461 430
Wheat 956 940-987 960
2017-18
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 2,376 430 960
AgriSource 2,379 340 955
Agrivisor 2,373 437 960
Allendale 2,366 417 954
DC Analysis 2,286 441 980
Doane 2,351 440 945
EDF Man 2,425 400 960
Farm Futures 2,335 435 960
Hueber Report 2,396 421 960
INTL FCStone 2,431 461 941
Sid Love Consulting 2,345 421 950
MaxYield 2,360 410 940
Price Group 2,370 396 960
Prime-Ag 2,345 380 960
RJO Brien 2,365 441 951
RMC 2,335 426 945
US Commodities 2,410 459 940
Vantage RM 2,340 405 960
Western Milling 2,212 402 987
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,395 430 950

DJ November World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2016-17 and 2017-18, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2016-17
Average Range USDA Oct.
Corn 226.5 222.6-228.0 227.0
Soybeans 94.7 94.0-95.0 94.9
Wheat 256.4 255.0-257.0 256.6
2017-18
Average Range USDA Oct.
Corn 201.0 197.6-203.5 201.0
Soybeans 95.5 93.0-97.0 96.1
Wheat 266.9 261.0-269.2 268.1
2016-17 2017-18
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 227.0 94.6 257.0 202.5 95.8 269.2
Agrivisor N/A N/A N/A 199.5 95.5 268.5
Allendale 227.0 94.9 256.6 201.4 95.8 268.0
Doane N/A 94.5 N/A N/A 95.5 N/A
EDF Man 227.0 95.0 256.6 203.0 95.5 268.0
Farm Futures 226.0 95.0 N/A 201.4 97.0 261.0
Hueber Report N/A N/A N/A 202.0 95.0 268.0
INTL FCStone 226.7 94.8 256.3 197.6 93.5 265.7
MaxYield 228.0 94.0 255.0 203.5 97.0 264.0
Prime-Ag 227.0 95.0 256.0 200.0 95.0 265.0
RMC 222.6 94.6 256.6 201.0 96.1 268.1
US Commodities N/A N/A N/A 202.0 97.0 269.0
Western Milling 227.0 94.9 256.6 200.0 95.5 269.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 227.0 94.9 256.6 199.1 93.0 265.9

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed near unchanged in Chicago and higher in Minneapolis before the USDA crop reports today. There should be no important changes in the Wheat data. Funds were buyers to reduce a big short position after selling in the first part of the day. Funds remain very short and are likely to cover some of these positions in the longer term, but the market really does not seem to have a fundamental reason to rally or move significantly lower. Planting in the US is on a normal pace now, according to USDA. It will be another small crop anyway as farmers continue to reduce planted area year after year in response to low world and US prices, due mostly to strong competition from Russia, but now appearing from other origins. Prices are not good and producers are in no hurry to plant as they see little profit potential in Wheat right now. This might not improve as Russia expects another big crop that could be big enough to offset lost production in places like the US and Canada and also Argentina and Australia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly below normal. Northern areas should get dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather, but some precipitation is expected Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 422, 419, and 414 December, with resistance at 431, 434, and 443 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 423, 419, and 414 December, with resistance at 431, 439, and 441 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 666 and 688 December. Support is at 628, 524, and 617 December, and resistance is at 653, 658, and 668 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower again in quiet trading before the next round of USDA production and supply and demand reports that will be released later today. A bigger sell order hit the pit at midsession to cause the down move. Futures held recent Support areas and tried to recover, but found additional selling late in the session. Traders expect reduced production, but how big a reduction, if any, after the reduced crops last month is a question. USDA could show better demand as export sales have been strong and at least as strong as expected at this point in the marketing year. Domestic cash market conditions are generally quiet amid what appear to be stable flat price bids despite the futures weakness. Domestic cash quotes have held generally steady amid little interest in the Delta and are called firm in California.
Overnight News: The Delta should get light precipitation through Friday, then mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average below normal today and tomorrow, then above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1138, 1134, and 1128 January, with resistance at 1145, 1155, and 1166 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower and Oats held to the Tuesday trading range as traders prepared for the USDA reports that will be released later today. The EIA said that Ethanol production last week was 311 million gallons and was considered supportive to Corn futures Ethanol stocks were down slightly from the previous week. The harvest has been delayed, but producers are not real interested in selling at current prices, anyway, and are hoping for some type of post harvest rally before selling too much. The USDA reports are expected to show a slight increase in yield and production estimates, but unchanged ending stocks estimates due primarily to increased ethanol demand. However, no one expects the data to do much to change the overall fundamental picture of ample supplies. Farmers are not selling much Corn due to expanding harvest activity and on weak basis levels. Strong ethanol demand is expected to continue as fuel prices should remain relatively high.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 343 and 341 December. Support is at 346, 343, and 340 December, and resistance is at 351, 355, and 356 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 265, 262, and 260 December, and resistance is at 271, 274, and 276 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were a little higher as traders expect strong demand and hear of less yield from producers in the last stages of the harvest. Soybean Meal was a little lower on spread trading against Soybean Oil. Reports indicate that yields have been mixed and many analysts expect a slight reduction in the national yield from USDA in the reports later today. Little change on the demand side is anticipated. The US harvest is about over now and farmers are showing less interest in selling. Ideas are that they will wait to see if January futures can climb to 1020 or higher or if basis levels can show dramatic improvement or both before moving much now. There are still forecasts around for weather patterns to change in Brazil and bring some badly needed rain to the north and drier conditions to the south and into Argentina. Some planting has been reported now in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goias as some rains have fallen in those states. The overall planting pace remains a little behind normal due to the poor weather at the start of the planting season.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 985, 981, and 978 January, and resistance is at 1000, 1005, and 1013 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 313.00, 310.00, and 308.00 December, and resistance is at 318.00, 321.00, and 323.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of 3560, 3590, and 3600 December. Support is at 3510, 3480, and 3460 December, with resistance at 3540, 3560, and 3600 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher again yesterday on US Soybeans and Soybean Oil strength and Malaysian Palm Oil futures were firm. Harvest progress should be winding down now and demand is called steady.. Farmers are starting to store crops now as the harvest comes to a close and as they wait for higher prices, but elevators and crusher appear to have good supplies right now. Palm Oil was lower on selling noted before the MPOB reports. There was some renewed talk of lower production. However, there is a lot of talk that supplies are more than adequate for demand. MPOB releases its monthly data later this week. Charts show that the market has held Support, but the market acts weak.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 516.00, 513.00, and 512.00 January, with resistance at 523.00, 529.00, and 535.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2770 and 2720 January. Support is at 2770, 2740, and 2710 January, with resistance at 2820, 2860, and 2880 January.

Trade Estimates for the Monthly MPOB Report:
Observation period : October
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Friday, 10 Nov
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.95 mil tonnes, Up 9.4%
Exports – 1.55 mil tonnes, Up 2.3%
Ending Stocks – 2.20 mil tonnes, Up 9.6%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.78 mil tonnes, Down 1.7%
Exports – 1.52 mil tonnes, UP 1.8%
Ending Stocks – 2.02 mil tonnes, Up 4.0%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Drier today, but mixed precipitation possible early in the weekend. Temperatures will average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November 32 Dec 203 Dec 55 Dec 23-Nov 4-Dec
December 40 Dec 61 Dec 33 Jan
January 36 March 43 Mar 35 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
November
December minus 25 Dec 63 Dec
January minus 20 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 8
Winnipeg–The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 500.10 up 2.20
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 530.80 up 0.70
2 Can 517.80 up 0.70
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 540.80 up 0.70
2 Can 527.80 up 0.70
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 217.00 up 4.00
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 212.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 9
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 690.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 687.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 692.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 695.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 695.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 692.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 697.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 700.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 707.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 640.00 02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 2790.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 345.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2065)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 09
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 123,348 lots, or 4.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 3,511 3,511 3,511 0 0 0
Jan-18 3,665 3,695 3,657 3,683 3,665 3,668 3 112,254 312,016
Mar-18 – – – 3,687 3,687 3,687 0 0 30
May-18 3,780 3,805 3,773 3,796 3,776 3,781 5 10,992 69,836
Jul-18 – – – 3,796 3,796 3,796 0 0 4
Sep-18 3,836 3,863 3,833 3,849 3,834 3,840 6 92 1,302
Nov-18 3,871 3,871 3,837 3,837 3,831 3,854 23 4 4
Jan-19 3,889 3,899 3,889 3,899 3,894 3,894 0 6 244
Mar-19 – – – 3,880 3,863 3,880 17 0 2
Corn
Turnover: 494,804 lots, or 8.37 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 1,650 1,650 1,650 0 0 0
Jan-18 1,685 1,687 1,676 1,685 1,682 1,681 -1 392,088 850,956
Mar-18 1,703 1,703 1,700 1,702 1,699 1,701 2 18 1,570
May-18 1,729 1,732 1,723 1,729 1,728 1,727 -1 97,228 345,958
Jul-18 1,744 1,747 1,744 1,747 1,744 1,745 1 8 496
Sep-18 1,748 1,749 1,742 1,745 1,746 1,743 -3 5,462 48,624
Soymeal
Turnover: 934,106 lots, or 26.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 2,808 2,808 2,808 0 0 0
Dec-17 2,838 2,849 2,838 2,848 2,834 2,845 11 88 1,582
Jan-18 2,804 2,823 2,799 2,819 2,799 2,809 10 656,712 1,533,650
Mar-18 2,814 2,823 2,812 2,823 2,811 2,819 8 30 250
May-18 2,756 2,772 2,750 2,770 2,753 2,760 7 267,234 1,105,290
Jul-18 2,762 2,775 2,758 2,775 2,766 2,764 -2 12 174
Aug-18 2,764 2,764 2,764 2,764 2,770 2,764 -6 4 140
Sep-18 2,771 2,782 2,763 2,782 2,765 2,770 5 10,026 94,842
Palm Oil
Turnover: 458,994 lots, or 26.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 5,798 5,798 5,798 0 0 0
Dec-17 – – – 5,706 5,706 5,706 0 0 0
Jan-18 5,650 5,720 5,632 5,710 5,624 5,678 54 339,328 312,518
Feb-18 – – – 5,698 5,698 5,698 0 0 2
Mar-18 – – – 5,722 5,722 5,722 0 0 2
Apr-18 – – – 5,796 5,796 5,796 0 0 10
May-18 5,760 5,812 5,746 5,794 5,732 5,780 48 115,264 233,614
Jun-18 – – – 5,780 5,780 5,780 0 0 8
Jul-18 – – – 5,750 5,750 5,750 0 0 4
Aug-18 – – – 5,698 5,698 5,698 0 0 2
Sep-18 5,670 5,724 5,670 5,714 5,650 5,698 48 4,402 19,862
Oct-18 – – – 5,666 5,620 5,666 46 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 398,140 lots, or 24.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 5,952 5,952 5,952 0 0 0
Dec-17 – – – 6,044 6,044 6,044 0 0 8
Jan-18 6,142 6,168 6,114 6,150 6,132 6,144 12 277,504 602,958
Mar-18 6,160 6,160 6,160 6,160 6,172 6,160 -12 2 12
May-18 6,310 6,358 6,290 6,328 6,298 6,326 28 119,336 254,050
Jul-18 6,436 6,438 6,346 6,382 6,312 6,388 76 10 2
Aug-18 – – – 6,360 6,330 6,360 30 0 4
Sep-18 6,422 6,462 6,402 6,436 6,410 6,430 20 1,288 8,366
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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