Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 8
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN November Nov. 09, 2017 133 Nov 02, 2017

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2017 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday.
U.S. 2017 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA Oct. USDA 2016
Corn Production 14,323 14,127-14,459 14,280 15,148
Corn Yield 172.3 170.0-174.0 171.8 174.6
Harvested Acres 83.1 83.1-83.5 83.1 86.7
Soybean Production 4,404 4,340-4,467 4,431 4,296
Soybean Yield 49.2 48.5-49.9 49.5 52.0
Harvested Acres 89.4 88.5-89.5 89.5 82.7
Corn Harvested Soybean Harvested
Production Yield Acres Production Yield Acres
Advanced Market 14,326 172.4 83.1 4,431 49.5 89.5
AgriSource 14,388 173.2 83.1 4,340 48.5 89.5
Agrivisor 14,313 172.2 83.1 4,438 49.6 89.5
Allendale 14,376 172.4 83.1 4,401 49.2 89.5
DC Analysis 14,376 173.0 83.1 4,416 49.4 89.5
Doane 14,296 172.0 83.1 4,420 49.4 88.5
EDF Man 14,459 174.0 83.1 4,375 49.0 89.5
Farm Futures 14,366 172.8 N/A 4,429 49.5 N/A
Hueber Report 14,250 172.0 N/A 4,380 49.0 N/A
INTL FCStone 14,434 173.7 83.1 4,467 49.9 89.5
Sid Love Consulting 14,335 172.5 83.1 4,431 49.5 89.5
MaxYield 14,290 172.0 83.1 4,390 49.0 89.5
Price Group 14,335 172.5 83.1 4,396 49.1 89.5
Prime Ag 14,335 172.5 83.1 4,385 49.0 89.5
RJO Brien 14,330 172.4 N/A 4,410 49.3 N/A
RMC 14,228 170.4 83.5 4,382 49.4 88.7
US Commodities 14,302 172.1 83.1 4,412 49.3 89.5
Vantage RM 14,280 171.8 83.1 4,404 49.2 89.5
Western Milling 14,127 170.0 83.1 4,341 48.5 89.5
Zaner 14,310 172.2 83.1 4,431 49.5 89.5

DJ U.S. November Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2017-18, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2017-18
Average Range USDA Oct.
Corn 2,360 2,212-2,431 2,340
Soybeans 420 340-461 430
Wheat 956 940-987 960
2017-18
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 2,376 430 960
AgriSource 2,379 340 955
Agrivisor 2,373 437 960
Allendale 2,366 417 954
DC Analysis 2,286 441 980
Doane 2,351 440 945
EDF Man 2,425 400 960
Farm Futures 2,335 435 960
Hueber Report 2,396 421 960
INTL FCStone 2,431 461 941
Sid Love Consulting 2,345 421 950
MaxYield 2,360 410 940
Price Group 2,370 396 960
Prime-Ag 2,345 380 960
RJO Brien 2,365 441 951
RMC 2,335 426 945
US Commodities 2,410 459 940
Vantage RM 2,340 405 960
Western Milling 2,212 402 987
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,395 430 950

DJ November World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2016-17 and 2017-18, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2016-17
Average Range USDA Oct.
Corn 226.5 222.6-228.0 227.0
Soybeans 94.7 94.0-95.0 94.9
Wheat 256.4 255.0-257.0 256.6
2017-18
Average Range USDA Oct.
Corn 201.0 197.6-203.5 201.0
Soybeans 95.5 93.0-97.0 96.1
Wheat 266.9 261.0-269.2 268.1
2016-17 2017-18
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 227.0 94.6 257.0 202.5 95.8 269.2
Agrivisor N/A N/A N/A 199.5 95.5 268.5
Allendale 227.0 94.9 256.6 201.4 95.8 268.0
Doane N/A 94.5 N/A N/A 95.5 N/A
EDF Man 227.0 95.0 256.6 203.0 95.5 268.0
Farm Futures 226.0 95.0 N/A 201.4 97.0 261.0
Hueber Report N/A N/A N/A 202.0 95.0 268.0
INTL FCStone 226.7 94.8 256.3 197.6 93.5 265.7
MaxYield 228.0 94.0 255.0 203.5 97.0 264.0
Prime-Ag 227.0 95.0 256.0 200.0 95.0 265.0
RMC 222.6 94.6 256.6 201.0 96.1 268.1
US Commodities N/A N/A N/A 202.0 97.0 269.0
Western Milling 227.0 94.9 256.6 200.0 95.5 269.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 227.0 94.9 256.6 199.1 93.0 265.9

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed lower and gave up all of the Monday gains in positioning before the USDA reports that will be released tomorrow. There should b no important changes in the Wheat data. Funds were buyers to reduce a big short position. Funds remain very short and are likely to cover some of these positions in the longer term, but the market really does not seem to have a fundamental reason to rally or move significantly lower. Planting in the US is on a normal pace now, according to USDA. It will be another small crop anyway as farmers continue to reduce planted area year after year in response to low world and US prices, due mostly to strong competition from Russia, but now appearing from other origins. Prices are not good and producers are in no hurry to plant as they see little profit potential in Wheat right now. This might not improve as Russia expects another big crop that could be big enough to offset lost production in places like the US and Canada and also Argentina and Australia.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly below normal. Northern areas should get dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather, but some precipitation is expected Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures should be below normal. Iraq bought 100,000 tons of US HRW.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 424, 422, and 413 December, with resistance at 434, 443, and 446 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 462 December. Support is at 423, 419, and 414 December, with resistance at 431, 439, and 441 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 666 and 688 December. Support is at 624, 517, and 615 December, and resistance is at 645, 653, and 658 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed slightly lower again in quiet trading before the next round of USDA production and supply and demand reports that will be released on Thursday. Traders expect reduced production, but how big a reduction, if any, after the reduced crops last month is a question. USDA could show better demand as export sales have been strong and at least as strong as expected at this point in the marketing year. The daily charts show that trends are mixed to down for the short-term and the weekly charts show a down trend. Both charts show that futures are near some big objectives for the move down, but many traders think further weakness is coming. Domestic cash market conditions are generally quiet amid what appear to be stable flat price bids despite the futures weakness. Domestic cash quotes have held generally steady amid little interest in the Delta and are called firm in California.
Overnight News: The Delta should get light precipitation through Friday, then mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average below normal today and tomorrow, then above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1138, 1134, and 1128 January, with resistance at 1169, 1176, and 1190 January.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Nov 8
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.29 9.74 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.91 10.09 0.00
Broken 9.22 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was fractionally lower and Oats were higher as traders prepared for the USDA reports on Thursday. The harvest has been delayed, but producers are not real interested in selling at current prices, anyway, and are hoping for some type of post harvest rally before selling too much. It will be hard for producers from Illinois to the east to get much work done after some big storms moved through these areas on Sunday. Fields will be wet for a couple more days, but some work could get done by the end of the week. Some parts on the northern Midwest are now expected some yield losses due to the storms last week that brought precipitation and some high winds in Minnesota and Wisconsin. However, no one expects the losses to do much to change the overall fundamental picture of ample supplies. Farmers are not selling much Corn due to expanding harvest activity and on weak basis levels. Strong ethanol demand is expected to continue as fuel prices should remain relatively high.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 343 and 341 December. Support is at 346, 343, and 340 December, and resistance is at 351, 355, and 356 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 267, 262, and 260 December, and resistance is at 274, 276, and 283 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher as traders expect strong demand and hear of less yield from producers in the last stages of the harvest. Reports indicate that yields have been mixed and many analysts expect a slight reduction in the national yield from USDA in te reports on Thursday. Little change on the demand side is anticipated. The US harvest is about over now and farmers are showing less interest in selling. Ideas are that they will wait to see if January futures can climb to 1020 or higher if  basis levels can show dramatic improvement or both before moving much now. There are still forecasts around for weather patterns to change in Brazil and bring some badly needed rain to the north and drier conditions to the south and into Argentina. Some planting has been reported now in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goias as some rains have fallen in those states. The overall planting pace remains a little behind normal due to the poor weather at the start of the planting season.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 985, 981, and 978 January, and resistance is at 1000, 1005, and 1013 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 313.00, 310.00, and 308.00 December, and resistance is at 318.00, 321.00, and 323.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3460, 3420, and 3390 December, with resistance at 3510, 3540, and 3560 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher again yesterday on US Soybeans and Soybean Oil strength and on Canadian Dollar weakness. Harvest progress should be winding down now and demand is called steady.. Farmers are starting to store crops now as the harvest comes to a close and as they wait for higher prices, but elevators and crusher appear to have good supplies right now. Palm Oil was higher along with Chicago Soybeans.. There was some renewed talk of lower production. However, there is a lot of talk that supplies are more than adequate for demand. MPOB releases its monthly data later this week. Charts show that the market has held Support, but the market acts weak.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 516.00, 513.00, and 512.00 January, with resistance at 523.00, 529.00, and 535.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2770 and 2720 January. Support is at 2770, 2740, and 2710 January, with resistance at 2820, 2860, and 2880 January.

Trade Estimates for the Monthly MPOB Report:
Observation period : October
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Friday, 10 Nov
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.95 mil tonnes, Up 9.4%
Exports – 1.55 mil tonnes, Up 2.3%
Ending Stocks – 2.20 mil tonnes, Up 9.6%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.78 mil tonnes, Down 1.7%
Exports – 1.52 mil tonnes, UP 1.8%
Ending Stocks – 2.02 mil tonnes, Up 4.0%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Drier today, but mixed precipitation possible early in the weekend. Temperatures will average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November 32 Dec 203 Dec 55 Dec 23-Nov 4-Dec
December 40 Dec 61 Dec 33 Jan
January 36 March 43 Mar 35 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
November minus 31 Dec
December minus 26 Dec 63 Dec
January minus 24 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 7
Winnipeg–The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 498.90 up 2.10
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 530.10 up 1.20
2 Can 517.10 up 1.20
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 540.10 up 1.20
2 Can 527.10 up 1.20
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 213.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 212.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov.8
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 687.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 685.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 690.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 692.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 692.50 +0.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 690.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 695.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 697.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 707.50 +0.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 637.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 2790.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 340.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2280)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 08
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 89,412 lots, or 3.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 3,511 3,511 3,511 0 0 0
Jan-18 3,672 3,672 3,656 3,665 3,666 3,665 -1 75,816 326,986
Mar-18 3,733 3,733 3,674 3,674 3,641 3,687 46 10 30
May-18 3,779 3,789 3,766 3,776 3,776 3,776 0 13,442 69,962
Jul-18 – – – 3,796 3,796 3,796 0 0 4
Sep-18 3,840 3,840 3,825 3,839 3,832 3,834 2 142 1,332
Nov-18 – – – 3,831 3,820 3,831 11 0 2
Jan-19 3,894 3,894 3,894 3,894 3,886 3,894 8 2 244
Mar-19 – – – 3,863 3,863 3,863 0 0 2
Corn
Turnover: 757,828 lots, or 12.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 1,650 1,650 1,650 0 0 0
Jan-18 1,685 1,689 1,675 1,686 1,678 1,682 4 612,106 850,426
Mar-18 1,699 1,707 1,699 1,707 1,699 1,699 0 316 1,566
May-18 1,730 1,736 1,721 1,730 1,727 1,728 1 140,254 350,872
Jul-18 1,744 1,749 1,743 1,749 1,746 1,744 -2 14 496
Sep-18 1,746 1,752 1,742 1,747 1,745 1,746 1 5,138 49,450
Soymeal
Turnover: 754,124 lots, or 21.00 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 2,808 2,808 2,808 0 0 0
Dec-17 2,828 2,843 2,820 2,839 2,827 2,834 7 212 1,624
Jan-18 2,791 2,807 2,786 2,804 2,795 2,799 4 516,462 1,527,200
Mar-18 2,817 2,817 2,805 2,805 2,804 2,811 7 4 256
May-18 2,749 2,760 2,743 2,756 2,753 2,753 0 223,390 1,105,358
Jul-18 2,763 2,774 2,763 2,774 2,777 2,766 -11 6 178
Aug-18 – – – 2,770 2,770 2,770 0 0 142
Sep-18 2,767 2,770 2,758 2,767 2,767 2,765 -2 14,050 94,556
Palm Oil
Turnover: 339,524 lots, or 19.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 5,798 5,798 5,798 0 0 0
Dec-17 – – – 5,706 5,706 5,706 0 0 0
Jan-18 5,644 5,654 5,592 5,606 5,648 5,624 -24 252,856 332,730
Feb-18 – – – 5,698 5,722 5,698 -24 0 2
Mar-18 – – – 5,722 5,722 5,722 0 0 2
Apr-18 – – – 5,796 5,796 5,796 0 0 10
May-18 5,734 5,758 5,704 5,726 5,746 5,732 -14 80,114 219,948
Jun-18 – – – 5,780 5,780 5,780 0 0 8
Jul-18 5,750 5,750 5,750 5,750 5,726 5,750 24 2 4
Aug-18 – – – 5,698 5,698 5,698 0 0 2
Sep-18 5,658 5,664 5,624 5,648 5,644 5,650 6 6,552 19,882
Oct-18 – – – 5,620 5,620 5,620 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 255,200 lots, or 15.76 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 5,952 5,952 5,952 0 0 0
Dec-17 – – – 6,044 6,044 6,044 0 0 8
Jan-18 6,134 6,158 6,112 6,118 6,126 6,132 6 189,914 626,830
Mar-18 – – – 6,172 6,172 6,172 0 0 10
May-18 6,300 6,324 6,278 6,290 6,294 6,298 4 64,304 243,428
Jul-18 – – – 6,312 6,312 6,312 0 0 4
Aug-18 – – – 6,330 6,330 6,330 0 0 4
Sep-18 6,408 6,426 6,392 6,398 6,404 6,410 6 982 8,244
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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