Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher in consolidation trading. The futures market is not showing much movement, and might not move much until USDA releases its next production and supply and demand reports on Thursday. Trade estimates of production losses due to hurricanes and cold weather will be compared to the USDA data. Reports that Cotton could have been lost in West Texas due to freezing temperatures are thought to be fairly minimal. There were losses from the hurricanes, but only big enough losses that futures have held, not rallied sharply. Harvest conditions are good in just about all areas. The market hopes for increased US export demand, and demand has improved over the last few weeks.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast should get light precipitation through Wednesday, then drier weather through this weekend. Temperatures should be on both sides of normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. The USDA average price is now 66.62 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 34,322 bales, from 32,922 bales yesterday. USDA said that Cotton is now 96% bolls opening, from 92% last week, 98% last year, and 98% average. It is 54% harvested, from 46% last week, 55% last year, and 55% average.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6830, 6780, and 6750 December, with resistance of 6920, 7000, and 7020 December.
Wire: Bloomberg News (BN) Date: Nov 6 2017 13:10:00
Cotton Production, Inventory Survey Before USDA WASDE Report
By Dominic Carey
(Bloomberg) — The following table shows results of a Bloomberg News survey
of as many as nine analysts for the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand
report on the 2017-18 cotton crop, which is scheduled for release at noon in
Washington on Nov. 9. Figures are in millions of bales.
|——Survey Results——|USDA Priors
2017-18:| Avg | Low | High | Oct. | 2016-17
US Production | 20.9| 20.1| 21.5| 21.1| 17.2
US Exports | 14.5| 14.2| 15.0| 14.5| 14.9
US End Stocks | 5.6| 5.3| 6.1| 5.8| 2.8
World Production | 120.3| 118.5| 121.4| 120.9| 106.6
World Consumption| 118.2| 117.8| 119.0| 118.0| 113.7
World End Stocks | 91.6| 89.0| 92.4| 92.4| 89.6
Analyst |————U.S.————| ——World—-
| | | End
Estimates: |Production |Exports |Stocks |Production |Consumption |Stocks
Cottonexperts.com | 20.6| 14.5| 5.3| 118.5| 119.0| 89.0
Doane | 21.0| 14.8| 5.5| 120.0| 118.5| 91.0
Love Consulting | 20.8| 14.5| 5.5| 120.5| 118.0| 92.1
Price Futures Group| 20.9| 14.5| 5.5|n/a |n/a |n/a
Rabobank | 21.1| 14.2| 6.1| 120.5| 118.0| 91.8
Rose Consulting | 21.5| 15.0| 5.9| 121.4| 118.6| 92.3
Texas A&M; Robinson| 21.1| 14.5| 5.8| 120.9| 118.0| 92.4
Varner Bros. | 20.1| 14.5| 5.4| 120.3| 118.0| 91.9
Wedbush Securities | 21.0| 14.3| 5.7| 120.5| 117.8| 92.2
SOURCE: Bloomberg News
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher and trends are starting to turn up as the market waits for the USDA production reports on Thursday. Ideas are that USDA can show another significant drop in Oranges production in Florida. USDA reports last month showed big production loss potential from the hurricane, but not the losses expected by the trade. USDA is expected by many to show further dramatic cuts in production in coming reports, but production has already been cut severely from last year and initial estimates for production this year, so how much additional loss needs to be calculated remains to be seen. USDA has had more time to do a more complete survey and it is expected that as USDA learns more about the damage it will be able to drop production estimates even more than it has. It should find that crops in some areas were almost completely destroyed. Other areas suffered losses of 50% or more of the crop. Some growers say that trees will be stressed again next year due to the winds and rains from Irma. The demand side remains weak and there are plenty of supplies in the US.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry weather and near to above normal temperatures. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. Some showers are possible this weekend. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery today and that total deliveries for the month are now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 159.00, 163.00, and 166.00 January. Support is at 155.00, 152.00, and 150.00 January, with resistance at 163.00, 165.00, and 166.00 January.
Wire: Bloomberg News (BN) Date: Nov 6 2017 13:45:00
Florida Orange Production Survey Before USDA’s Citrus Report
By Dominic Carey
(Bloomberg) — The following table shows results of a
Bloomberg News survey of three analysts about the 2017-18
Florida orange crop. The USDA will release their estimate at
noon in Washington on Nov. 9. Figures are in millions of 90-lb
Summary of Results: | Output
Survey Avg | 48.3
Survey Range | 35-58
USDA Oct. Estimate | 54.0
USDA 2016-17 Crop | 68.75
Price Futures Group | 52.0
Optionsellers.com | 58.0
Infinity Trading | 35.0
SOURCE: Bloomberg News
General Comments: New York was higher and London was slightly lower. Ideas are that the funds and industry need to buy in New York, but London only found minimal support from a typhoon that moved through the country and brought heavy rains and some big winds to parts of the country over the weekend. The trade is waiting to see the precipitation and the crop condition in Brazil. The precipitation has been good in the last few days and reports from producers indicate that conditions for production are better and in many areas are good. Some areas are still missing rains, and flowing in these areas has suffered. Ideas that the coming Brazil crop could be big remain, even through Coffee areas have seen stress until recently. Most areas will need to see some consistent rainfall now to keep the potential for a big crop alive as trees need to recover from stress from the production year last year and also the cold and dry Winter. However, the market might not have much concrete to work with until the cherries develop in coming months. The weather in Brazil and the condition of the trees is getting attention as La Nina is coming and Coffee areas are already dry.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.924 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 118.41 ct/lb. Brazil will get drier weather today and tomorrow and more showers late this week and this weekend. Temperatures should average near to below normal today and tomorrow, then near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 122.00, 121.00, and 119.00 December, and resistance is at 128.00, 130.00 and 133.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1820 and 1710 January. Support is at 1830, 1820, and 1810 January, and resistance is at 1880, 1900, and 1930 January.
General Comments: Futures were higher for technical reasons and on ideas that Brazilian mills are still concentrating on producing more ethanol and less Sugar. Some selling was seen on forecasts for generally good growing weather in Brazil. Trends are still sideways to up on the daily charts as the market so far has held important short-term support areas on the daily charts. Weekly charts show trading ranges, but it could be that the extended sideways range is coming to an end. There does not seem to be any big demand coming from any real direction, especially as China has cut back on imports and other demand seems to be more or less routine, but the reduced Brazil output seems to be offsetting the demand concerns at this time. The fundamental side of the market remains mostly negative due to ideas of big world production. Upside price potential is limited as there are still projections for a surplus in the world production,and these projections for the surplus seem to be bigger.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature dry conditions today and scattered showers late this week and this weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal today and tomorrow, then near to above normal
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1430, 1400, and 1380 March, and resistance is at 1490, 1520, and 1530 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 394.00 and 406.00 March. Support is at 374.00, 370.00, and 368.00 March, and resistance is at 380.00, 382.00, and 383.00 March.
DJ World Sugar Output to Rise in 2017-2018 — Market Talk
0758 ET – World sugar production will rise to 179.3 million metric tons in the 2017-2018 growing season, according to Jose Orive, executive director of the International Sugar Organization. That would be an increase of 11.5 million tons from 2016-2017, Orive said during a conference in Sao Paulo. Sugar consumption will increase 1.77% in the 2017-2018 season from the previous season to 174.7 million tons, Orive said. (email@example.com)
General Comments: Futures closed higher, but the market remains in a mostly sideways trade for now. World production ideas remain high. Harvest reports show good to very good production will be seen this year in West Africa. The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East Africa is getting better rains now along with cooler temperatures. Good conditions are still seen in Southeast Asia. Traders talk of increased demand to go against big world production as prices are now attractive for grinders and chocolate manufacturers.
Overnight News: A few isolated showers are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.003 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2220, 2280, and 2370 December. Support is at 2070, 2040, and 2030 December, with resistance at 2140, 2160, and 2210 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1560, 1530, and 1520 December, with resistance at 1600, 1610, and 1630 December.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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