Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 2
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov. 03, 2017 152 Nov 01, 2017
SOYBEAN November Nov. 03, 2017 50 Oct 25, 2017

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Nov 2
For the week ended Oct 26, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 347.8 0.0 15509.5 16303.2 4992.8 60.0
hrw 167.7 0.0 5759.1 6865.4 1504.4 7.4
srw 10.8 0.0 1491.6 1410.8 519.4 38.8
hrs 81.6 0.0 4398.5 5046.0 1632.6 12.3
white 80.3 0.0 3601.1 2741.1 1277.9 0.0
durum 7.3 0.0 259.1 240.0 58.5 1.5
corn 811.4 90.0 17028.7 24751.4 11788.7 424.8
soybeans 1967.0 15.2 30382.9 36126.5 18131.1 137.2
soymeal 225.0 -0.5 3975.8 3788.5 3458.5 120.6
soyoil 27.0 0.0 167.9 322.3 106.4 0.0
upland cotton 209.5 47.1 8300.5 6014.2 6527.1 866.0
pima cotton 19.1 0.0 389.8 369.8 335.6 19.7
sorghum 284.0 0.0 1772.1 1460.2 1298.4 0.0
barley 0.1 0.0 37.5 14.2 25.4 7.1
rice 88.0 0.0 1070.6 1296.0 546.7 0.0

Alerts History
• 01-Nov-2017 03:20:22 PM – INTL FCSTONE SEES U.S. 2017 CORN CROP AT 14.434 BILLION BUSHELS (PREVIOUS 14.129 BLN), YIELD 173.7 BU/ACRE (PREVIOUS 169.2)
• 01-Nov-2017 03:20:22 PM – INTL FCSTONE ESTIMATES U.S. 2017 SOYBEAN CROP AT 4.467 BILLION BUSHELS (PREVIOUS 4.424 BLN), YIELD 49.9 BU/ACRE (PREVIOUS 49.9)
INTL FCStone raises U.S. 2017 corn yield estimate to 173.7 bu/acre – Reuters News
01-Nov-2017 03:28:32 PM
CHICAGO, Nov 1 (Reuters) – Commodity brokerage INTL FCStone INTL.O on Wednesday raised its estimate of the average U.S. 2017 corn yield to 173.7 bushels per acre (bpa), from 169.2 in its previous monthly report.
The firm raised its corn production estimate to 14.434 billion bushels from 14.129 billion previously.
INTL FCStone left its forecast of the U.S. 2017 soybean yield at 49.9 bpa, unchanged from its Oct. 2 figure. The firm forecast U.S. soybean production at 4.467 billion bushels, up from 4.424 billion a month ago.
(Reporting by Julie Ingwersen; Editing by Tom Brown)
(( Julie.ingwersen@thomsonreuters.com ; 1-312-408-8710; Reuters Messaging: julie.ingwersen.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net ))

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed slightly lower on worries about export demand overall. Funds were sellers once again. Funds remain very short and are likely to cover some of these positions in the longer term, but the market really does not seem to have a fundamental reason to rally or move significantly lower. Planting in some areas of the Great Plains and Midwest could be delayed as producers wait for warmer temperatures to help promote better emergence of the crop. Planting is on a normal pace now, according to USDA. It will be another small crop anyway as farmers continue to reduce planted area year after year in response to low world and US prices, due mostly to strong competition from Russia, but now appearing from other origins. Prices are not good and producers are in no hurry to plant as they see little profit potential in Wheat right now.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather except for a few showers on Thursday. Temperatures should be near to above normal through Thursday, than below normal. Northern areas should get dry weather much of this week and light precipitation on Thursday. Temperatures should be above normal through Thursday, than below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather, but some precipitation is expected Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures should be above normal. Iraq bought 100,000 tons of US HRW.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 412 December. Support is at 414, 408, and 402 December, with resistance at 424, 428, and 434 December. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 414, 408, and 402 December, with resistance at 422, 431, and 439 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 606, 594, and 588 December, and resistance is at 628, 645, and 653 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower again yesterday, but closed well off the lows on what appeared to be new selling by funds and other large speculators. The selling was big in the first part of the session, but faded rapidly after November got close to 1100 per hundredweight The daily charts show that trends are down for the short-term and the weekly charts also show a down trend. Both charts show that futures are new at some big objectives for the move. Domestic cash market conditions are generally quiet amid what appear to be stable flat price bids despite the futures weakness. Domestic cash quotes have held generally steady amid little interest in the Delta and are called firm in California.
Overnight News: The Delta should get light precipitation through Friday, then mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average below normal today and tomorrow, then above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1140, 1134, and 1128 January, with resistance at 11769, 1176, and 1190 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were higher as weekly and monthly ethanol data showed strong demand for Corn. Strong ethanol demand is expected to continue as fuel prices should remain relatively high. USDA showed that the harvest is far behind the average despite an active harvest pace last week. The harvest remains well behind the five-year average, but producers might be able to get caught up as the Soybeans harvest comes to an end. There will be some rain in areas to slow things down, but western areas look to stay relatively dry, and this is where the harvest is farthest behind. Some parts on the northern Midwest are now expected some yield losses due to the storms last week that brought precipitation and some high winds in Minnesota and Wisconsin. However, no one expects the losses to do much to change the overall fundamental picture of ample supplies. Farmers are not selling much Corn due to expanding harvest activity and on weak basis levels.
Overnight News: USDA said that 435.2 million bushels of Corn were used in September for the production of ethanol. Mexico bought 1.356 million tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 343 and 341 December. Support is at 346, 343, and 340 December, and resistance is at 351, 355, and 356 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 269, 267, and 261 December, and resistance is at 276, 283, and 289 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were higher. USDA showed that the harvest is now above 80% complete and winding down in many areas. The demand for US Soybeans remains very strong. Harvest weather should improve this week as forecasts call for cool and drier conditions. There are still forecasts around for weather patterns to change in Brazil and bring some badly needed rain to the north and drier conditions to the south and into Argentina, but for now it is still too dry in northeastern Brazil and too wet in southern Brazil and Argentina. Some planting has been reported now in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goias as some rains have fallen in those states. The overall planting pace remains a little behind normal due to the poor weather at the start of the planting season.
Overnight News: USDA said that the September Soybeans crush was 145.37 million bushels, 5.1% above last year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 981, 978, and 970 January, and resistance is at 1000, 1005, and 1013 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 310.00, 308.00, and 304.00 December, and resistance is at 314.00, 318.00, and 321.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3510, 3560, and 3600 December. Support is at 3420, 3390, and 3370 December, with resistance at 3510, 3540, and 3560 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a littler yesterday on Canadian Dollar weakness and as November deliveries were ready to start. Harvest progress should be winding down. Forecasts call for mostly dry weather this week. Farmers are starting to store crops now as the harvest comes to a close and as they wait for higher prices, but elevators and crusher appear to have good supplies right now. Palm Oil was a little lower along with Chicago Soybeans.. There was some renewed talk of lower production. However, there is a lot of talk that supplies are more than adequate for demand. Charts show that the market has held Support, but the market acts weak.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 526.00 January. Support is at 516.00, 513.00, and 512.00 January, with resistance at 523.00, 529.00, and 535.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2880 January. Support is at 2810, 2760, and 2740 January, with resistance at 2860, 2880, and 2910 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Drier today, but mixed precipitation possible early in the weekend. Temperatures will average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November 32 Dec 203 Dec 55 Dec 23-Nov 4-Dec
December 40 Dec 61 Dec 33 Jan
January 36 March 43 Mar 35 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
November minus 31 Dec
December minus 26 Dec 58 Dec
January
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Nov 1
Winnipeg–The following are the closing cash grain
prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 496.70 up 1.80
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 531.10 up 2.40
2 Can 518.10 up 2.40
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 541.10 dn 0.60
2 Can 528.10 dn 0.60
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 213.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 212.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov. 2
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 695.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 695.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 697.50 -00.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 697.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Nov 700.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 700.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 702.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 702.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 710.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 640.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 2,830 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 352 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.2290)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 02
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 123,164 lots, or 4.49 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 3,511 3,511 3,511 0 0 0
Jan-18 3,628 3,643 3,622 3,638 3,635 3,634 -1 108,380 372,762
Mar-18 – – – 3,641 3,641 3,641 0 0 26
May-18 3,733 3,748 3,730 3,744 3,737 3,738 1 14,536 71,812
Jul-18 – – – 3,796 3,796 3,796 0 0 4
Sep-18 3,791 3,804 3,785 3,796 3,788 3,796 8 242 1,420
Nov-18 – – – 3,792 3,792 3,792 0 0 2
Jan-19 3,846 3,847 3,846 3,847 3,847 3,846 -1 4 250
Mar-19 3,863 3,863 3,863 3,863 3,860 3,863 3 2
Corn
Turnover: 292,388 lots, or 4.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 1,650 1,650 1,650 0 0 0
Jan-18 1,663 1,668 1,663 1,667 1,661 1,665 4 240,580 955,070
Mar-18 1,689 1,694 1,685 1,687 1,684 1,688 4 18 1,242
May-18 1,713 1,717 1,712 1,715 1,712 1,714 2 46,982 377,294
Jul-18 – – – 1,736 1,736 1,736 0 0 492
Sep-18 1,736 1,740 1,735 1,740 1,735 1,737 2 4,808 38,854
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,182,342 lots, or 32.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 2,900 2,900 2,726 2,726 2,900 2,808 -92 42 0
Dec-17 2,805 2,832 2,805 2,832 2,815 2,826 11 536 840
Jan-18 2,797 2,816 2,787 2,801 2,795 2,802 7 748,358 1,560,468
Mar-18 2,789 2,811 2,789 2,810 2,811 2,806 -5 42 244
May-18 2,747 2,775 2,735 2,755 2,740 2,757 17 418,974 959,082
Jul-18 2,782 2,782 2,782 2,782 2,763 2,782 19 2 176
Aug-18 2,792 2,792 2,761 2,768 2,755 2,771 16 22 150
Sep-18 2,751 2,785 2,748 2,770 2,749 2,771 22 14,366 77,452
Palm Oil
Turnover: 350,592 lots, or 20.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 5,798 5,798 5,798 0 0 0
Dec-17 5,670 5,738 5,670 5,728 5,680 5,706 26 8 0
Jan-18 5,678 5,710 5,662 5,698 5,702 5,688 -14 260,312 380,022
Feb-18 – – – 5,742 5,742 5,742 0 0 4
Mar-18 – – – 5,722 5,722 5,722 0 0 2
Apr-18 – – – 5,796 5,796 5,796 0 0 10
May-18 5,776 5,798 5,754 5,764 5,772 5,772 0 87,936 201,882
Jun-18 5,846 5,846 5,792 5,792 5,706 5,818 112 4 10
Jul-18 – – – 5,726 5,726 5,726 0 0 4
Aug-18 – – – 5,734 5,734 5,734 0 0 2
Sep-18 5,652 5,672 5,638 5,642 5,652 5,656 4 2,332 12,420
Oct-18 – – – 5,620 5,620 5,620 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 317,246 lots, or 19.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 5,952 5,952 5,952 0 0 0
Dec-17 – – – 6,020 6,020 6,020 0 0 12
Jan-18 6,110 6,150 6,088 6,134 6,116 6,124 8 244,714 665,202
Mar-18 – – – 6,160 6,160 6,160 0 0 6
May-18 6,280 6,308 6,246 6,294 6,272 6,282 10 72,106 201,116
Jul-18 – – – 6,312 6,312 6,312 0 0 4
Aug-18 – – – 6,330 6,330 6,330 0 0 4
Sep-18 6,364 6,396 6,338 6,382 6,364 6,372 8 426 7,040
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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