Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 1
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov. 02, 2017 433 Oct 31, 2017
SOYBEAN November Nov. 02, 2017 47 Jul 25, 2017

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed lower on worries about export demand overall. Winter Wheat futures showed the most weakness on ideas of strong competition for sales from Russia and Europe. Minneapolis held better than Winter Wheat as demand for high protein Wheat remains relatively strong. Funds were sellers once again. Funds remain very short and are likely to cover some of these positions in the longer term. Planting in some areas of the Great Plains and Midwest could be delayed as producers wait for warmer temperatures to help promote better emergence of the crop. Planting is on a normal pace now, according to USDA. It will be another small crop anyway as farmers continue to reduce planted area year after year in response to low world and US prices, due mostly to strong competition from Russia, but now appearing from other origins. Prices are not good and producers are in no hurry to plant as they see little profit potential in Wheat right now.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather except for a few showers on Thursday. Temperatures should be near to above normal through Thursday, than below normal. Northern areas should get dry weather much of this week and light precipitation on Thursday. Temperatures should be above normal through Thursday, than below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather, but some precipitation is expected Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures should be above normal. Iraq bought 100,000 tons of US HRW.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 412 December. Support is at 414, 408, and 402 December, with resistance at 424, 428, and 434 December. Trends in Kansas City are down with no objectives. Support is at 414, 408, and 402 December, with resistance at 422, 431, and 439 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 606, 594, and 588 December, and resistance is at 628, 645, and 653 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower again yesterday on what appeared to be new selling by funds and other large speculators. The daily charts show that trends are down for the short-term and the weekly charts also show a down trend. Domestic cash market conditions are generally quiet amid what appear to be stable flat price bids despite the futures weakness. The harvest is over and as farmers are holding out for higher prices and are also doing other things besides farming. Reports from the country indicate good to very good yields and quality for the Delta as the harvest comes to a close in most areas. Yields in California right now are lower than hoped for as the late start to planting appears to have created a short season and less yield potential. Domestic cash quotes have held generally steady amid little interest in the Delta and are called firm in California.
Overnight News: The Delta should get light precipitation through Friday, then mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average below normal today and tomorrow, then above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1150, 1140, and 1128 January, with resistance at 1176, 1190, and 1200 January.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Nov 1
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.29 9.74 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.91 10.09 0.00
Broken 9.22 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was near lower along with the weakness in Wheat and ideas that harvest progress is getting faster. Fund were sellers once again, and the market looks ready to test recent lows that are just a few cents away. Oats were higher after flushing out sell stops in the first part of the day. USDA showed that the harvest is far behind the average despite an active harvest pace last week. The harvest remains well behind the five-year average, but producers might be able to get caught up as the Soybeans harvest comes to an end. There will be some rain in areas to slow things down, but western areas look to stay relatively dry, and this is where the harvest is farthest behind. Some parts on the northern Midwest are now expected some yield losses due to the storms last week that brought precipitation and some high winds in Minnesota and Wisconsin. However, no one expects the losses to do much to change the overall fundamental picture of ample supplies. Farmers are not selling much Corn due to expanding harvest activity and on weak basis levels.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 343 and 341 December. Support is at 346, 343, and 340 December, and resistance is at 351, 355, and 356 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 261, 257, and 253 September, and resistance is at 267, 269, and 276 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were near unchanged and products were mixed. USDA showed that the harvest is now above 80% complete and winding down in many areas. Export inspections were strong once again, suggesting that the demand for US Soybeans remains very strong. The strong demand seen in the weekly export sales report for Soybeans on Thursday morning is also expected to be repeated as China was the big buyer and is thought to be buying more this week. Harvest weather should improve this week as forecasts call for cool and drier conditions. There are still forecasts around for weather patterns to change in Brazil and bring some badly needed rain to the north and drier conditions to the south and into Argentina, but for now it is still too dry in northeastern Brazil and too wet in southern Brazil and Argentina. Some planting has been reported now in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goias as some rains have fallen in those states. The overall planting pace remains a little behind normal due to the poor weather at the start of the planting season.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 981, 978, and 970 January, and resistance is at 993, 1000, and 1005 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 310.00, 308.00, and 304.00 December, and resistance is at 314.00, 318.00, and 321.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3510, 3560, and 3600 December. Support is at 3420, 3390, and 3370 December, with resistance at 3510, 3540, and 3560 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a littler yesterday on Canadian Dollar weakness and as November deliveries were ready to start. Harvest progress should be winding down. Forecasts call for mostly dry weather this week. Farmers are starting to store crops now as the harvest comes to a close and as they wait for higher prices, but elevators and crusher appear to have good supplies right now. Palm Oil was higher with the outside markets and as exports as reported by the private sources remained robust in data released this week. The data did show that demand for exports tailed off at the end of the month, but it was a very strong month overall. There was some renewed talk of lower production. However, there is a lot of talk that supplies are more than adequate for demand. Charts show that the market has held Support, but the market acts weak.
Overnight News: ITS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports were 1.406 million tons in October, from 1.372 million in September.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 526.00 January. Support is at 513.00, 512.00, and 508.00 January, with resistance at 521.00, 523.00, and 529.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2880 January. Support is at 2810, 2760, and 2740 January, with resistance at 2860, 2880, and 2910 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Drier today, but mixed precipitation possible early in the weekend. Temperatures will average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
November 32 Dec 203 Dec 55 Dec 23-Nov 4-Dec
December 40 Dec 61 Dec 33 Jan
January 36 March 43 Mar 35 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
November minus 31 Dec
December minus 25 Dec 58 Dec
January
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 31
Winnipeg–The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 494.90 dn 2.30
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 528.70 up 1.80
2 Can 515.70 up 1.80
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 541.70 up 1.80
2 Can 528.70 up 1.80
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 213.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 212.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov. 1
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 697.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 697.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 697.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 697.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Nov 702.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 702.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 702.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 702.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 707.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 642.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 2,830 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 356 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.2330)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 01
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 111,782 lots, or 4.08 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 3,511 3,511 3,511 0 0 0
Jan-18 3,627 3,645 3,626 3,630 3,627 3,635 8 100,174 373,514
Mar-18 – – – 3,641 3,641 3,641 0 0 26
May-18 3,731 3,747 3,726 3,738 3,730 3,737 7 11,440 69,438
Jul-18 – – – 3,796 3,789 3,796 7 0 4
Sep-18 3,780 3,798 3,780 3,791 3,785 3,788 3 104 1,432
Nov-18 – – – 3,792 3,792 3,792 0 0 2
Jan-19 3,849 3,851 3,847 3,847 3,837 3,847 10 60 248
Mar-19 3,860 3,860 3,860 3,860 3,846 3,860 14 4 2
Corn
Turnover: 715,678 lots, or 11.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 1,650 1,650 1,650 1,650 1,629 1,650 21 1,196 0
Jan-18 1,656 1,670 1,648 1,661 1,656 1,661 5 565,162 961,570
Mar-18 1,680 1,693 1,679 1,689 1,682 1,684 2 60 1,250
May-18 1,704 1,720 1,700 1,712 1,704 1,712 8 143,162 376,838
Jul-18 1,733 1,742 1,733 1,738 1,733 1,736 3 14 492
Sep-18 1,731 1,743 1,729 1,736 1,731 1,735 4 6,084 36,212
Soymeal
Turnover: 862,826 lots, or 23.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,900 2,996 2,900 -96 22 42
Dec-17 2,817 2,822 2,812 2,813 2,815 2,815 0 120 540
Jan-18 2,792 2,807 2,784 2,797 2,795 2,795 0 582,038 1,583,462
Mar-18 2,811 2,811 2,811 2,811 2,798 2,811 13 2 254
May-18 2,732 2,756 2,724 2,743 2,735 2,740 5 267,800 867,610
Jul-18 2,763 2,763 2,763 2,763 2,764 2,763 -1 10 178
Aug-18 2,757 2,764 2,751 2,751 2,761 2,755 -6 8 144
Sep-18 2,746 2,763 2,738 2,756 2,744 2,749 5 12,826 75,908
Palm Oil
Turnover: 391,588 lots, or 22.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 5,798 5,798 5,798 0 0 0
Dec-17 – – – 5,680 5,680 5,680 0 0 2
Jan-18 5,706 5,738 5,642 5,654 5,726 5,702 -24 314,428 398,188
Feb-18 – – – 5,742 5,742 5,742 0 0 4
Mar-18 – – – 5,722 5,722 5,722 0 0 2
Apr-18 – – – 5,796 5,820 5,796 -24 0 10
May-18 5,780 5,804 5,744 5,750 5,784 5,772 -12 75,558 185,850
Jun-18 – – – 5,706 5,706 5,706 0 0 8
Jul-18 5,794 5,794 5,660 5,660 5,720 5,726 6 4 4
Aug-18 – – – 5,734 5,734 5,734 0 0 2
Sep-18 5,652 5,678 5,626 5,632 5,654 5,652 -2 1,596 11,778
Oct-18 5,620 5,620 5,620 5,620 5,650 5,620 -30 2 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 303,098 lots, or 18.63 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 5,952 5,952 5,952 0 0 0
Dec-17 6,020 6,020 6,020 6,020 6,092 6,020 -72 2 12
Jan-18 6,128 6,142 6,094 6,102 6,126 6,116 -10 246,554 677,984
Mar-18 – – – 6,160 6,160 6,160 0 0 6
May-18 6,262 6,296 6,242 6,260 6,282 6,272 -10 55,620 184,800
Jul-18 – – – 6,312 6,322 6,312 -10 0 4
Aug-18 – – – 6,330 6,330 6,330 0 0 4
Sep-18 6,332 6,380 6,332 6,346 6,368 6,364 -4 922 6,958
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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