Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 31
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov. 01, 2017 1213 Oct 30, 2017
SOYBEAN November Nov. 01, 2017 50 Jul 11, 2017

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Oct 30
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING OCT 26, 2017
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 10/26/2017 10/19/2017 10/27/2016 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 734 0 15,248 24,993
CORN 517,679 636,029 881,326 5,066,018 9,248,104
FLAXSEED 220 0 3,524 3,989 9,508
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 699 0 3,893 6,299
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 1,485 74,288 34,249 446,086 610,335
SOYBEANS 2,505,988 2,585,817 2,988,476 12,341,881 13,640,755
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 315,317 170,998 335,525 11,114,268 11,643,486
Total 3,340,689 3,468,565 4,243,100 28,991,383 35,183,480
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Crop Progress
Date 29-Oct 22-Oct 2016 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 93 87 95 95
Cotton Harvested 46 37 45 45
Corn Harvested 54 38 73 72
Soybeans Harvested 83 70 85 84
Sorghum Mature 96 89 96 95
Sorghum Harvested 59 47 75 69
Sugar beets Harvested 87 74 85 86
Peanuts Harvested 63 51 65 61
Winter Wheat Planted 84 75 85 87
Winter Wheat Emerged 65 52 69 68
Sunflowers Harvested 53 30 60 54

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Very Good
Cotton This Week 5 10 30 41 14
Cotton Last Week 5 9 30 42 14
Cotton Last Year 4 13 34 40 9
Corn This Week 3 8 23 50 16
Corn Last Week 3 8 23 50 16
Corn Last Year 2 5 19 54 20
Winter Wheat This Week 4 8 36 43 9
Winter Wheat Last Week
Winter Wheat Last Year 2 7 33 48 10
Pasture and Range This Week 9 16 35 35 5
Pasture and Range Last week 8 16 34 37 5
Pasture and Range Last Year 8 15 33 39 5

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat closed a little lower on further strength in the US Dollar and worries about export demand overall. News that Saudi Arabia had paid cheap prices for European Wheat was considered negative and a sign of weaker world prices. Minneapolis held better than Winter Wheat. Funds were sellers once again. Funds remain very short and are likely to cover some of these positions in the longer term. Planting in some areas of the Great Plains and Midwest could be delayed as producers wait for warmer temperatures to help promote better emergence of the crop. Planting is on a normal pace now, according to USDA. It will be another small crop anyway as farmers continue to reduce planted area year after year in response to low world and US prices, due mostly to strong competition from Russia, but now appearing from other origins. Prices are not good and producers are in no hurry to plant as they see little profit potential in Wheat right now.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather except for a few showers on Thursday. Temperatures should be near to above normal through Thursday, than below normal. Northern areas should get dry weather much of this week and light precipitation on Thursday. Temperatures should be above normal through Thursday, than below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather, but some precipitation is expected Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures should be above normal. Iraq bought 100,000 tons of US HRW.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 412 December. Support is at 423, 420, and 412 December, with resistance at 434, 443, and 446 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 419 and 415 December. Support is at 420, 414, and 408 December, with resistance at 431, 439, and 441 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 606, 594, and 588 December, and resistance is at 628, 645, and 653 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday on long liquidation as November contracts went into delivery. Delivery trading and Rolling of positions dominated the trade activity. The daily charts show that trends are down for the short-term and the weekly charts also show a down trend. Domestic cash market conditions are generally quiet amid what appear to be stable flat price bids despite the futures weakness. The harvest is over and as farmers are holding out for higher prices. Reports from the country indicate good to very good yields and quality for the Delta as the harvest comes to a close in most areas. Yields in California right now are lower than hoped for as the late start to planting appears to have created a short season and less yield potential. Domestic cash quotes have held generally steady amid little interest in the Delta and are called firm in California.
Overnight News: The Delta should get light precipitation through Friday, then mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average below normal today and tomorrow, then above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1162, 1150, and 1140 January, with resistance at 1190, 1200, and 1212 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was near unchanged yesterday. Fund were sellers once again, but the market is holding well despite the speculative selling. Oats were lower. The extremely slow harvest pace for Corn in the US remains a strong feature, and USDA showed that the harvest is far behind the average despite an active harvest pace last week. Ideas are that the Corn harvest will continue to move quickly now as the Soybeans harvest is about over in many areas. Some parts on the northern Midwest are now expected some yield losses due to the storms last week that brought precipitation and some high winds in Minnesota and Wisconsin. However, no one expects the losses to do much to change the overall fundamental picture of ample supplies. Farmers are not selling much Corn due to expanding harvest activity and on weak basis levels.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 348, 346, and 343 December, and resistance is at 355, 356, and 358 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 261, 258, and 253 September, and resistance is at 267, 269, and 276 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower on trading before First Notice Day in November contracts. Soybean Meal was about unchanged, and Soybean Oil was lower. After the close, USDA showed that the harvest is now above 80% complete and winding down in many areas. The strong demand seen in the weekly export sales report for Soybeans on Thursday morning kept buying interest alive even as China was the big buyer and is thought to be buying more this week. Harvest weather should improve this week as forecasts call for cool and drier conditions. There are still forecasts around for weather patterns to change in Brazil and bring some badly needed rain to the north and drier conditions to the south and into Argentina, but for now it is still too dry in northeastern Brazil and too wet in southern Brazil and Argentina. Some planting has been reported now in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goias as some rains have fallen in those states. The overall planting pace remains a Little behind normal due to the poor weather at the start of the planting season.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 981, 978, and 970 January, and resistance is at 993, 1000, and 1005 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 310.00, 308.00, and 304.00 December, and resistance is at 314.00, 318.00, and 321.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3510, 3560, and 3600 December. Support is at 3420, 3390, and 3370 December, with resistance at 3510, 3540, and 3560 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower yesterday despite to Canadian Dollar weakness and on the weakness in Chicago Soybean Oil and Malaysian Palm Oil. Harvest progress should be winding down. Forecasts call for mostly dry weather this week. Farmers are starting to store crops now as the harvest comes to a close and as they wait for higher prices, but elevators and crusher appear to have good supplies right now. Palm Oil was higher with the outside markets and as exports as reported by the private sources remained robust in data released yesterday. There was some renewed talk of lower production. However, there is a lot of talk that supplies are more than adequate for demand. Charts show that the market has held Support, but the market acts weak.
Overnight News: SGS said Malaysian Palm Oil exports were 1.416 million tons in October, from 1.384 million in September.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 526.00 January. Support is at 513.00, 512.00, and 508.00 January, with resistance at 521.00, 523.00, and 529.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are up with objectives of 2880 January. Support is at 2810, 2760, and 2740 January, with resistance at 2860, 2880, and 2910 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Drier today, but mixed precipitation possible early in the weekend. Temperatures will average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October 29-Dec 200 Dec 40 Dec 21-Nov 2-Dec
November 31-Dec 55 Dec 25-Nov
December 39 Dec 58 Dec 32 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
October
November minus 29 Dec
December minus 23 Dec 58 Dec
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 30
Winnipeg–The following are the closing cash grain
prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 497.20 up 2.90
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 526.90 dn 2.30
2 Can 513.90 dn 2.30
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 539.90 dn 2.30
2 Can 526.90 dn 2.30
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 213.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 212.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca,
or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 31
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 692.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 692.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 695.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 692.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Nov 697.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 697.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 700.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 697.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 707.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 642.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 2,820 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 356 -01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.2300)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 31
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 101,158 lots, or 3.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 3,508 3,540 3,508 3,540 3,514 3,511 -3 20 82
Jan-18 3,627 3,639 3,616 3,631 3,630 3,627 -3 90,154 371,904
Mar-18 – – – 3,641 3,641 3,641 0 0 26
May-18 3,726 3,740 3,724 3,730 3,727 3,730 3 10,692 67,126
Jul-18 – – – 3,789 3,786 3,789 3 0 4
Sep-18 3,781 3,793 3,778 3,781 3,780 3,785 5 204 1,384
Nov-18 – – – 3,792 3,792 3,792 0 0 2
Jan-19 3,839 3,845 3,827 3,841 3,846 3,837 -9 88 206
Mar-19 – – – 3,846 3,846 3,846 0 0 4
Corn
Turnover: 290,650 lots, or 4.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 1,629 1,637 1,608 1,637 1,629 1,629 0 1,920 8,074
Jan-18 1,657 1,660 1,652 1,657 1,656 1,656 0 233,206 1,005,370
Mar-18 1,682 1,684 1,681 1,684 1,682 1,682 0 16 1,238
May-18 1,704 1,707 1,701 1,705 1,704 1,704 0 47,560 391,896
Jul-18 – – – 1,733 1,733 1,733 0 0 494
Sep-18 1,730 1,734 1,728 1,732 1,731 1,731 0 7,948 34,128
Soymeal
Turnover: 736,524 lots, or 20.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 2,938 3,026 2,938 3,026 2,882 2,996 114 6 42
Dec-17 2,810 2,821 2,810 2,818 2,822 2,815 -7 74 460
Jan-18 2,803 2,807 2,785 2,792 2,805 2,795 -10 594,660 1,600,062
Mar-18 2,796 2,807 2,793 2,800 2,804 2,798 -6 126 256
May-18 2,742 2,744 2,729 2,734 2,741 2,735 -6 133,652 830,764
Jul-18 – – – 2,764 2,764 2,764 0 0 176
Aug-18 – – – 2,761 2,761 2,761 0 0 148
Sep-18 2,745 2,752 2,740 2,742 2,750 2,744 -6 8,006 73,770
Palm Oil
Turnover: 315,460 lots, or 18.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 5,798 5,798 5,798 0 0 0
Dec-17 – – – 5,680 5,680 5,680 0 0 2
Jan-18 5,740 5,752 5,702 5,728 5,722 5,726 4 243,128 396,408
Feb-18 – – – 5,742 5,742 5,742 0 0 4
Mar-18 – – – 5,722 5,722 5,722 0 0 2
Apr-18 5,820 5,820 5,820 5,820 5,862 5,820 -42 2 10
May-18 5,798 5,810 5,760 5,786 5,776 5,784 8 71,204 176,392
Jun-18 – – – 5,706 5,706 5,706 0 0 8
Jul-18 – – – 5,720 5,708 5,720 12 0 2
Aug-18 – – – 5,734 5,734 5,734 0 0 2
Sep-18 5,670 5,676 5,640 5,658 5,658 5,654 -4 1,124 11,146
Oct-18 5,650 5,650 5,650 5,650 5,522 5,650 128 2 2
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 269,194 lots, or 16.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 6,146 6,146 5,888 5,888 5,990 5,952 -38 8 6
Dec-17 – – – 6,092 6,130 6,092 -38 0 12
Jan-18 6,150 6,156 6,108 6,128 6,146 6,126 -20 221,632 671,840
Mar-18 – – – 6,160 6,160 6,160 0 0 6
May-18 6,308 6,314 6,258 6,274 6,308 6,282 -26 46,974 169,922
Jul-18 – – – 6,322 6,322 6,322 0 0 4
Aug-18 – – – 6,330 6,330 6,330 0 0 4
Sep-18 6,382 6,398 6,348 6,360 6,400 6,368 -32 580 6,708
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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