Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was near unchanged. It senses that there is a lot of Cotton to sell and the sharp rally in the US Dollar hurt demand ideas in a big way. The Texas weather could get cold enough to freeze the crops and some Cotton could be lost. Mature Cotton would not be affected, but Green bolls would be damaged and lost. The Indian subsidies will be higher than trade expectations and ideas are that the US could see new demand due to higher Indian prices that will need to be charged now. The harvest ahead seems to be the most important factor as USDA is expecting a huge crop. Bolls are opening and harvest is expanding under relatively good conditions as it has been relatively dry. Good harvest weather is expected this week.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast should get dry weather except for precipitation on Friday. Temperatures should average mostly below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be mostly below normal. The USDA average price is now 66.61 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 2,031 bales, from 2,047 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6750, 6690, and 6670 December, with resistance of 6900, 7000, and 7020 December.

DJ USDA Volume Of Cotton Classed Report – Oct 27
Data quoted in bales for week ending Oct 26. Totals may not add due
to rounding. * denotes data withheld to avoid disclosure of individual
producer information. Source: USDA
Weekly Season Weekly Season
Southeast 254,135 568,555 Southwest 247,460 1,743,676
NC 45,642 95,839 Okla 16,486 21,044
SC 26,366 62,399 Texas 230,974 1,722,632
Ga 128,089 299,194 Kansas – –
Ala 40,558 87,287
Fla 4,446 9,280 Far West 27,649 71,333
Va 9,034 14,556 NM – –
Ariz* 9,723 39,325
Delta 409,944 1,036,965 Calif 17,926 32,008
Miss 116,702 306,463
Tenn 71,699 166,003 Pima 32,680 43,493
Mo 63,794 142,130 Other 0 0
Ark 115,680 262,614 Total US 971,868 3,464,022
La 42,069 159,755 pct tenderable 79.0 82.3

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 24, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 299,192
: Positions :
: 66,863 17,941 64,397 73,474 190,240 78,609 9,750 283,343 282,328: 15,849 16,864
: Changes from: October 17, 2017 (Change in open interest: -1,936) :
: -865 -1,038 -2,100 313 -1,306 1,681 2,939 -971 -1,505: -966 -431
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.3 6.0 21.5 24.6 63.6 26.3 3.3 94.7 94.4: 5.3 5.6
: Total Traders: 302 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 111 69 101 59 74 28 11 259 205:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed slightly higher. There are no new damaging storms on the horizon, although a System located off Costa Rica is expected to move north and could bring rains later this week. Ideas remain that the Orange groves are badly damaged in Florida due to Irma. Crops in many areas were almost completely destroyed. Other areas suffered losses of 50% or more of the crop. Some growers say that trees will be stressed again next year due to the winds and rains from Irma. The demand side remains weak and there are plenty of supplies in the US. Trees that are still alive now are showing fruit of good sizes, although many have lost a lot of the fruit. Brazil crops are stressed from hot and dry weather.
Overnight News: Florida should get dry weather and near normal temperatures. Some showers are possible on Sunday. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 150.00, 149.00, and 146.00 November, with resistance at 156.00, 159.00, and 160.00 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 24, 2017
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,820 :
: Positions :
: 3,622 7,065 1,150 0 0 1,571 966 57 794 373 2,202 :
: Changes from: October 17, 2017 :
: -49 -510 -14 0 0 -71 132 -67 -141 60 -942 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 30.6 59.8 9.7 0.0 0.0 13.3 8.2 0.5 6.7 3.2 18.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 66 :
: 18 13 5 0 0 8 7 . 13 10 14 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed higher Friday, but London was a little lower. The charts show the chance for a double bottom, and this seemed to be confirm don Friday. The trade is waiting to see the precipitation in Brazil. The precipitation is expected to be light and might not help all that much. Trends are still mostly down on the charts in New York. London charts are sideways. Ideas that the coming Brazil crop could be big remain, even through Coffee areas remain generally dry. Most areas will need to see some consistent rainfall now to keep the potential for a big crop alive as trees need to recover from stress from the production year last year and also the cold and dry Winter. The weather in Brazil and the condition of the trees is getting attention as La Nina is coming and Coffee areas are already dry.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.907 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 120.44 ct/lb. Brazil will get showers through Tuesday, then drier weather. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 125.00, 123.00, and 121.00 December, and resistance is at 128.00, 130.00 and 133.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1980, 1970, and 1960 November, and resistance is at 2020, 2040, and 2060 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 24, 2017
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 37,500 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 276,489 :
: Positions :
: 86,565 88,394 40,533 8,385 13,984 31,024 77,013 32,528 14,563 6,179 41,083 :
: Changes from: October 17, 2017 :
: 5,800 1,914 -261 -175 857 -452 5,026 997 1,205 270 1,932 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 31.3 32.0 14.7 3.0 5.1 11.2 27.9 11.8 5.3 2.2 14.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 511 :
: 118 103 25 9 15 53 83 53 133 61 105 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/24/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
114,855 64,814 61,573 4,292 2,828 1,949
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 56.4% 53.6% 3.7% 2.5% 1.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
147 48 46 10 7 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
14,685 20,154 9,901 2,623 1,817 11,670
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
12.8% 17.5% 8.6% 2.3% 1.6% 10.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
17 28 17 12 9 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,922 4,963
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.3% 4.3%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were higher as Brazil mills started to produce more ethanol. The market is holding as UNICA showed reduced production of Sugar as mills in Brazil decided to make more Ethanol. Trends are still sideways on the daily charts. Weekly charts also show trading ranges. Traders remain generally bearish on ideas of strong world production and lackluster demand. There was some talk of Far East demand that is now being filled by India and the Middle East due to higher prices from Thailand. But there does not seem to be any big demand coming from any real direction, especially as China has cut back on imports. The fundamental side of the market remains mostly negative due to ideas of big world production. Brazil has turned dry after recent rains, and more rain is needed after the dry Winter. Some showers could appear early this week. Upside price potential is limited as there are still projections for a surplus in the world production,and these projections for the surplus seem to be bigger.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature warm temperatures and scattered showers through this weekend and drier conditions next week.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 1510, 1530, and 1560 March. Support is at 1430, 1400, and 1380 March, and resistance is at 1470, 1490, and 1520 March. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 389.00 and 403.00 December. Support is at 375.00, 368.00, and 366.00 December, and resistance is at 384.00, 391.00, and 3404.00 December.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 24, 2017
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 112,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 817,823 :
: Positions :
: 215,611 305,347 173,259 19,325 34,367 109,982 217,230 71,843 61,075 17,664 79,782 :
: Changes from: October 17, 2017 :
: 10,871 12,554 -1,430 1,001 -3,710 29 4,604 7,063 4,777 -2,538 1,361 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 26.4 37.3 21.2 2.4 4.2 13.4 26.6 8.8 7.5 2.2 9.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 249 :
: 66 63 20 4 14 39 42 34 36 28 41 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/24/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
90,237 51,828 47,401 10,208 7,729 1,897
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 57.4% 52.5% 11.3% 8.6% 2.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
134 53 44 13 6 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
11,708 21,085 3,221 3,978 549 2,724
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
13.0% 23.4% 3.6% 4.4% 0.6% 3.0%
Number of Traders in Each Category
13 25 10 7 4 8
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,673 5,631
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.2% 6.2%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower Friday. The market appears ready for a small correction at this time. The trends are still mostly up in New York and in London on both the daily and weekly charts. World production ideas remain high. Harvest reports show good to very good production will be seen this year in West Africa. Ghana and Ivory Coast expects a very good crop this year. Nigeria and Cameroon are reporting good yields on the initial harvest, and also good quality. The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East Africa is getting better rains now. Good conditions are still seen in Southeast Asia. Traders talk of increased demand to go against big world production as prices are now attractive for grinders and chocolate manufacturers.
Overnight News: A few showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.136 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2220, 2280, and 2370 December. Support is at 2070, 2030, and 2000 December, with resistance at 2130, 2160, and 2210 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1530, 1520, and 1480 December, with resistance at 1600, 1610, and 1630 December.

DJ CMAA Spot Cocoa Bean And Price Indications – Oct 27
Ex-dock or warehouse U.S. Eastern Seaboard North of Hatteras, in U.S. dollars
per metric ton. Settling price for October 27, 2017. All pricing is considered
nominal. Source: Cocoa Merchants Association of America.
N/A denotes not available.
Type Differential/ Price
Ratio
Main Crop Ghana, Grade 1 330 2,434.00
Main Crop Ivory Coast, Grade 1 240 2,344.00
Main Crop Nigerian, Grade 1 185 2,289.00
Ecuador 200 2.304.00
Sanchez f.a.q. NA NA
PPP Natural African Type Carton Cocoa Butter 2.92 6,143.68
Cocoa Press Cake – Natural 10/12% Butterfat 0.74 1,550.00

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 24, 2017
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 10 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 301,349 :
: Positions :
: 113,792 137,191 26,830 11,363 17,188 44,641 54,124 26,035 21,496 10,516 33,826 :
: Changes from: October 17, 2017 :
: 2,949 12,288 -1,312 -419 4,532 1,565 -7,397 3,722 476 -778 689 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 37.8 45.5 8.9 3.8 5.7 14.8 18.0 8.6 7.1 3.5 11.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 272 :
: 39 36 19 6 10 47 49 40 54 38 52 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/24/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
334,180 215,833 203,142 16,672 14,474 23,178
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 64.6% 60.8% 5.0% 4.3% 6.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
153 48 46 14 8 13
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
23,108 41,335 20,619 4,168 408 27,317
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
6.9% 12.4% 6.2% 1.2% 0.1% 8.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
21 29 14 9 10 19
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,285 3,707
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.0% 1.1%

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

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