Bill Moore
About The Author

Bill Moore

William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337

NOV SOYBEANS

Since Labor Day, Nov Beans have languished in a 50-cent range (940-985) – with offsetting fundamentals keeping it under wraps! (HARVEST, EXPORTS, SOUTH AMERICA, US DOLLAR, USDA REPORTS) – that is until last Thur when a basically neutral USDA crop report ignited the mkt upside & to its highest close since early August! Has the worm turned?

a1

FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 1,770,324 MMT (1.1 – 1.4) – Fri sales Were 1.75 MMT (600 – 2.0)

Oct 16 –           227,300 MT       Unk

Oct 11 –           264,000 MT       China

Oct 11 –           132,000 MT       Mexico

Oct 10-             131,000 MT      China

  • USDA REPORT – 10/12/17

Bean Prod –      4.431 BB  (Est-4.439, Sept – 4.431)

Yield                  49.5 B/A   (Est – 49.8, Sept – 49.9)

US Stocks          430 MB    (Est –  453,  Sept – 475)

Global                96.1 MMT (Est – 96.5, Sept – 97.5)

The yield reduction leading to an unchanged # from Sept – was Friendly & refuted the old notion that “BIG CROPS GET BIGGER”!

  • HARV PROGRESS – % Done –  49(LW – 36, Avg – 60)

Ill – 63 (58)   Ind – 52 (52)     Iowa – 32 (66)

  • SOUTH AMERICA – too dry in the North & too wet in the South Has hampered their planting efforts
  • TECHNICAL UPSIDE BREAK-OUT – on a neutral report – no less – Is very impressive & led to the highest weekly close since Aug 1

Big Crops don’t always get bigger – especially with the Sept dryness we’ve had – the USDA Oct Report is a solid testimonial to that! It seems to validate that “harvest lows” were put in Mid-Aug & that the record crop is dialed in!

CORN

The corn #’s on the OCT CROP REPORT were more on the negative side with production, yields & carry-out all slightly higher than expected & higher than last month! However, the initial spike-down was met with solid buying & turned into a key reversal upside & a higher weekly close!  Indeed, spillover support from Nov Beans helped pull Dec Corn higher!

a2

FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 322,672 MT (600-800) – Fri sales were 1.6 MMT (700- 1.7)!

Oct 12 –        120,000 MT      Mexico

Oct 11 –        150,000 MT      Mexico

  • USDA REPORT – 10/12/17

Corn Prod –    14,280 BB (Est – 14,168,  Sept – 14,184)

Yield          –     171.8 B/A (Est –  169.7,    Sept – 168.6)

US Stocks  –     2,340 MB (Est –  2,249,    Sept – 2,325)

Global        –     201 MMT (Est –  201.5,    Sept  – 202.5)

The #’s were on the high side but have been bandied about for Several months and it could easily be argued that they are Already factored in!

  • HARV PROGRESS – % Done  –   28  (LW-22   Avg – 47)

Ill –  47 (Avg – 64)    Ind  – 36 (Avg – 46)  Iowa- 13 (Avg – 41)

  • SOUTH AMERICA – early pltg issues have helped to support the mkt
  • TECHNICAL ACTION – while Nov Beans broke out upside, Dec Corn

Momentarily penetrated the low end of its range before rallying Back into Mid-range – on the coattails of Nov Bean’s surge

The 14.280 BB crop is the 3rd biggest ever but the # may not get any bigger as later yields aren’t as good as early ones –plus harvest delays might cause some yield loss!

DEC WHEAT

Dec Wht is bound in a tight range (430-460) – just off contract lows! The contract lately has no friends – as bearish influences abound – big harvest pressure in corn beans, world ending stocks at a record level – again & a negative USDA Oct Crop Rep!

a3

  • For the 3rd consecutive year, we have record world stocks
  • The USDA is corroborating same – reporting 17-18 carry-out at 268 MMT (Est – 262, Sept – 263)
  • Sovecon has raised the Russian wht crop by 2.2% to 82.9 MMT
  • Big crops in Eastern Europe, the Black Sea Region & India have helped

Global stocks at record levels Dec Wht needs a weather issue somewhere to rally!

DEC CATTLE

Despite a record increase in 3rd -4th Qtr production, solid domestic & export demand has rallied Dec Cat $12 (107-119).  Since Mid-Aug to a point where the mkt is at a $7-8 premium to cash – twice what it normally is!  So, the mkt is currently overbought & focusing on an Oct COF Report this Friday – promising a placement # of 7% over 2016! So maybe a correction in the uptrend before the report!

a4

DEC HOGS

Much like its sister mkt Dec Cat, Dec Hogs were able to launch a substantial rally – albeit in the face of mounting production – thanks to healthy domestic & export demand!  The Dec Cat rally (107-119) started in Mid-Aug – while the Dec Hog rally (56-64) started in Mid-Sept!

a5

!) 3rd-4th Qtr Production to be up 790 MP – 10 yr high & 2nd highest on rec

2) 4th Qtr production is to be up 5.8% over 2016

3) The improbable rally pushed Dec Hogs to a $5.45 premium to cash –

When normally it’s a $6.50 discount

The situation is ameliorated by the fact that 4th-1st Qtr Production is Expected to be less than

 

Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337

View AGMASTER Archiveswww.pricegroup.com

A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – an Employee Owned Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Security Question * * Time limit is exhausted. Please reload CAPTCHA.