Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower in reaction to the USDA reports. The market is waiting for USDA and the latest production and supply and demand reports that will be released later today. Ideas are that the recent weather has been good for maturing crops and harvest activities. Hurricane Nate apparently did no real damage, although the rains might slow the harvest in some areas The harvest ahead seems to be the most important factor as USDA is expecting a huge crop, but storms have damaged production potential since the last report and USDA weekly condition reports have reflected some deterioration. The charts suggest that futures can trade between 6500 and 7500 for a while. Bolls are opening and harvest is expanding under relatively good conditions as it has been relatively dry.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast should mostly dry weather except for a few showers on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures should average near to above normal through Sunday, then near to below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions except for some showers on Saturday. Temperatures will be near to above normal this week and near to below normal next week. The USDA average price is now 66.14 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 6,674 bales, from 6,003 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with objectives of 6740 and 6580 December. Support is at 6740, 6700, and 6660 December, with resistance of 6900, 6930, and 6940 December.

DJ On-Call Cotton – Oct 12
As of Oct 6. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Sales Purchases
Oct 17 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 17 27,224 28,916 -1,692 16,350 16,659 -309
Mar 18 40,317 39,538 779 5,527 5,250 277
May 18 22,301 22,285 16 553 553 0
Jul 18 22,055 21,568 487 1,209 1,195 14
Oct 18 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 18 13,422 13,548 -126 9,769 9,367 402
Mar 19 4,267 4,267 0 528 528 0
May 19 1,306 1,306 0 0 0 0
Jul 19 1,570 1,570 0 0 0 0
Dec 19 2,283 2,283 0 3,478 3,452 26
Mar 20 842 842 0 146 146 0
Total 135,587 136,123 -536 37,560 37,150 410
Open Change
Int
Oct 17 31 109 -78
Dec 17 128,439 132,754 -4,315
Mar 18 69,328 69,345 -17
May 18 9,741 9,054 687
Jul 18 6,361 5,926 435
Oct 18 1 1 0
Dec 18 15,522 15,216 306
Mar 19 339 347 -8
May 19 1 1 0
Jul 19 167 167 0
Dec 19 44 44 0
Mar 20 0 0 0
Total 229,974 232,964 -2,990

DJ USDA U.S. Cotton Ginnings Report-Oct 12
Figures are for cotton ginned prior to September 1, for 2013-16
crops. State breakdown is for upland cotton, unless denoted pima. In
running bales. (d) denotes withheld to avoid disclosure of individual
gins.
Running Bales Ginned by Crop,
States and United States: October 1, 2014-2017
(Excluding linters)
=============================================================================
Crop and State Running bales ginned
——————————————————–
2014 2015 2016 2017
=============================================================================
Upland
United States … (D) (D) (D) 1,249,300
American Pima
United States .. (D) (D) (D) –
All
United States .. 1,154,450 634,500 1,166,700 1,249,300
=============================================================================

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Cotton – Oct 12
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use
========================================================================
Item 2016/2017 2017/2018
prev Oct 12 prev Oct 12
=========================================================================
Area
Million acres
Planted 10.07 10.07 12.62 12.62
Harvested 9.51 9.51 11.51 11.41
Pounds
Yield per harv. acre 867 867 908 889
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 3.80 3.80 2.75 2.75
Production 17.17 17.17 21.76 21.12
Imports 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Supply, total 20.98 20.98 24.52 23.88
Domestic use 3.25 3.25 3.35 3.35
Exports 14.92 14.92 14.90 14.50
Use, total 18.17 18.17 18.25 17.85
Unaccounted 0.06 0.06 0.27 0.23
Ending stocks 2.75 2.75 6.00 5.80
Avg. farm price 68.00 68.00 54.00 – 66.00 55.00 – 65.00
=========================================================================

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton – Oct 12
World Cotton Supply and Use
(Million 480-pound bales)
=============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use loss stocks
=============================================================================
2017/18 (Projected)
World
Sep 89.57 120.75 37.82 117.75 37.78 0.07 92.54
Oct 89.57 120.86 38.20 118.01 38.22 0.03 92.38
United States
Sep 2.75 21.76 0.01 3.35 14.90 0.27 6.00
Oct 2.75 21.12 0.01 3.35 14.50 0.23 5.80
Total foreign
Sep 86.82 98.99 37.81 114.40 22.88 -0.20 86.54
Oct 86.82 99.75 38.19 114.66 23.72 -0.20 86.58
Major exporters
Sep 28.54 55.79 2.07 32.36 19.68 -0.29 34.64
Oct 28.53 56.42 2.40 32.36 20.51 -0.29 34.76
Major importers
Sep 56.60 40.32 33.25 77.97 2.15 0.09 49.96
Oct 56.65 40.51 33.27 78.23 2.25 0.09 49.87
=============================================================================

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower as the market digested the USDA reports showing much less production, but not the losses that had been feared by th trade. Florida sources told wire services they expect USD to show further dramatic cuts in production in coming reports.. Chart trends turned up with the price action this week. Ideas remain that the Orange groves are badly damaged in Florida due to Irma. Crops in many areas were almost completely destroyed. Other areas suffered losses of 50% or more of the crop. Some growers say that trees will be stressed again next year due to the winds and rains from Irma. The demand side remains weak and there are plenty of supplies in the US. Trees that are still alive now are showing fruit of good sizes, although many have lost a lot of the fruit. Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition and production estimates are climbing after recent rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get daily chances for showers and storms and near to above normal temperatures. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 164.00, 165.00, and 169.00 November. Support is at 155.00, 150.00, and 146.00 November, with resistance at 160.00, 165.00, and 168.00 November.

DJ USDA Crop Production: U.S. Citrus Fruits-Oct 12
Utilized Production of Citrus Fruits by Crop – States
and United States: 2016-2017 and Forecasted October 1, 2017.
(The crop year begins with the bloom of the first year shown and ends with the completion of harvest the following year)
=============================================================================
Utilized Production Utilized Production
Boxes/1 Ton Equivalent
Crop and State ——————————————————-
2016-17 2017-18 2016-17 2017-18
==============================================================================
—- 1,000 Boxes 2/ —– —– 1,000 Tons ——
==============================================================================
Oranges
California, all 50,300 46,000 2,012 1,840
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 39,300 35,000 1,572 1,400
Valencia 11,000 11,000 440 440
Florida, all 68,750 54,000 3,094 2,430
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 33,000 23,000 1,485 1,035
Valencia 35,750 31,000 1,609 1,395
Texas, all 1,370 1,650 58 70
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 1,090 1,350 46 57
Valencia 280 300 12 13
United States, all 120,420 101,650 5,164 4,340
Early, mid, and Navel 2/ 73,390 59,350 3,103 2,492
Valencia 47,030 42,300 2,061 1,848
Grapefruit
California 4,000 4,200 160 168
Florida, all 7,760 4,900 330 208
Red 6,280 4,000 267 170
White 1,480 900 63 38
Texas 4,800 5,300 192 212
United States 16,560 14,400 682 588
Tangerines and mandarins 3/
California 23,900 23,000 956 920
Florida 1,620 1,000 77 48
United States 25,520 24,000 1,033 968
Lemons
Arizona 1,650 1,600 66 64
California 20,500 21,000 820 840
United States 22,150 22,600 886 904
==============================================================================
(NA) Not available.
1/ Net pounds per box: oranges in California-80, Florida-90, Texas-85;
grapefruit in California-80, Florida-85, Texas-80; tangerines and mandarins
in California-80, Florida-95; lemons-80.
2/ Navel and miscellaneous varieties in California. Early (including Navel) and
midseason varieties in Florida and Texas. For 2015-2016 included small quantities
of Temples in Florida.
3/ Includes tangelos and tangors.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London both closed lower on speculative selling tied to ideas that the coming Brazil crop could be big. Many traders had expected a lower day yesterday after the disappointing price action from Tuesday, but no one really seemed to expect the big losses seen. The recent rains in Brazil has promoted flowering for the next crop, and the flowing seems to be very good. However, it is dry again now and there are no real forecasts for a wet period for the next two weeks as a high pressure ridge has moved into the northern part of the country. Most areas will need to see some consistent rainfall now to keep the potential for a big crop alive as trees need to recover from stress from the production year last year and also the cold and dry Winter. The weather in Brazil and the condition of the trees is getting attention as La Nina is coming and Coffee areas are already dry. There are still reports of defoliation to trees, and that does not Support ideas of big production potential down the road. There will be a lot of talk about the rains and what it means to production potential for the next few weeks.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.849 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 120.01 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather, but as few light showers are possible over the weekend. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 126.00, 124.00, and 119.00 December, and resistance is at 130.00, 133.00 and 136.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1960 and 1920 November. Support is at 1960, 1950, and 1920 November, and resistance is at 2000, 2030, and 2040 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were mostly higher again in both New York and in London. The market has been holding Support, but has not given any buy signal on the daily charts. The fundamental side of the market remains mostly negative due to ideas of big world production. Brazil has turned dry after recent rains, and more rain is needed after the dry Winter. The Sugar areas look to stay dry and very warm for the next two weeks. The market is thinking more and more about La Nina and the potential for drought in pasts of Brazil this year. Upside price potential is limited as there are still projections for a surplus in the world production,and these projections for the surplus seem to be bigger. Trends are mostly sideways in both markets.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature warm and dry weather, but a few light showers are possible this weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1400, 1380, and 1350 March, and resistance is at 1450, 1470, and 1490 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 368.00, 359.00, and 354.00 December, and resistance is at 380.00, 384.00, and 391.00 December.

DJ USDA Crop Production: U.S. Sugar beets/Cane-Oct 12
Sugar beets: Area Planted, Harvested, Yield, and Production Price and Value
By State and United States, 2016 and Forecasted Oct 1, 2017
=======================================================================================
Area Harvested Yield Production
================================================================================
State 2016 2017 2016 Sep 1 2017 2016 Sep 1 2017
=======================================================================================
==1000 Acres== ====== Tons ====== ====== 1000 Tons ======

CA 1/ 25.0 24.5 44.3 43.9 43.5 1,108 1,106 1,066
CO 27.6 29.1 33.6 35.7 35.4 927 1,003 1,030
ID 170.0 167.0 41.4 41.6 41.1 7,038 6,947 6,864
MI 149.0 143.0 30.8 29.9 28.0 4,589 4,261 4,004
MN 417.0 413.0 30.0 31.1 29.5 12,510 12,596 12,184
MT 45.3 42.5 35.0 34.3 33.6 1,586 1,441 1,428
NE 47.2 44.6 29.9 33.1 32.1 1,411 1,602 1,432
ND 203.0 208.0 30.8 31.4 30.6 6,242 6,029 6,365
OR 10.2 9.1 42.0 39.9 39.9 428 351 363
WA 1.9 1.8 47.9 47.4 47.4 91 85 85
WY 30.0 31.6 31.7 28.0 27.8 951 759 878
U.S. 1,126.2 1,114.2 32.7 33.3 32.0 36,881 36,180 35,699
==================================================================================
1/ Relates to year of intended harvest for fall planted beets in central
California and to year of planting for overwinter beets in central and
southern California.
Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed : Area Harvested, Yield, and Production
By State and United States, 2016 and Forecasted Oct 1, 2017
===================================================================================
Area Harvested Yield Production
============================================================================
State 2016 2017 2016 Sep 1 2017 2016 Sep 1 2017
===================================================================================
1000 Acres ====== Tons ====== ======-1000 Tons ======
FL 417.0 414.0 40.5 42.5 42.1 16,904 17,510 17,429
HI 15.5 (NA) 86.2 (NA) (NA) 1,336 (NA) (NA)
LA 431.0 440.0 28.8 29.6 30.8 12,413 12,728 13,552
TX 39.6 41.3 37.0 39.5 37.3 1,465 1,580 1,540
U.S. 903.1 895.3 35.6 36.1 36.3 32,118 31,818 32,521
===================================================================================
(NA) Not available.
1/ Net tons.
2/ Estimates discontinued in 2017.

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Sugar – Oct 12
U.S. Sugar Supply and Use
==============================================================================
Item 2016/2017 2017/2018
prev Oct 12 prev Oct 12
==============================================================================
1,000 short tons, raw value
Beginning stocks 2,054 2,054 1,760 1,732
Production 8,848 8,892 8,929 8,863
Beet sugar 4,998 5,022 5,017 4,977
Cane sugar 3,850 3,870 3,912 3,886
Florida 2,055 2,055 2,126 2,036
Hawaii 43 43 0 0
Louisiana 1,612 1,632 1,626 1,690
Texas 140 140 160 160
Imports 3,338 3,241 3,688 3,830
TRQ 1,727 1,611 1,707 1,781
Other program 385 413 200 250
Other 1,226 1,216 1,781 1,799
Mexico 1,216 1,206 1,771 1,789
Total supply 14,240 14,187 14,377 14,425
Exports 125 100 25 50
Deliveries 12,355 12,355 12,678 12,678
Food 12,200 12,200 12,523 12,523
Other 155 155 155 155
Miscellaneous 0 0 0 0
Total use 12,480 12,455 12,703 12,728
Ending stocks 1,760 1,732 1,674 1,697
Stocks to use ratio 14.1 13.9 13.2 13.3
==============================================================================

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher on improved demand ideas related to the strong European grind data seen on Wednesday. The trends turned up again with the price action yesterday, and traders will hope for similar gains in the grind in North America and Asia. That data should be released during the next week.. World production ideas remain high. Harvest reports show good to very good production will be seen this year in West Africa. Ghana and Ivory Coast expects a very good crop this year. Nigeria and Cameroon are reporting good yields on the initial harvest, and also good quality. Prices paid to producers have been improving due to the good quality of the crop The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East African could use more rain, but Cocoa is growing. Good conditions are still seen in Southeast Asia. Traders talk of increased demand to go against big world production as prices are now attractive for grinders and chocolate manufacturers. New grind data should be released starting next week.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.401 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2220 December. Support is at 2060, 2000, and 1990 December, with resistance at 2120, 2130, and 2150 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1560, 1530, and 1520 December, with resistance at 1590, 1620, and 1650 December.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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