Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report Thursday and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2017 Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
Thursday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Sept. 2016
Corn Production 14,280.0 14,168 13,836-14,329 14,184 15,148
Corn Yield 171.8 169.7 167.0-171.2 169.9 174.6
Harvested Acres 83.1 83.5 82.9-84.0 83.5 86.7
Soybean Production 4,431.0 4,439 4,321-4,480 4,431 4,296
Soybean Yield 49.5 49.8 48.5-50.2 49.9 52.0
Harvested Acres 89.5 89.1 88.5-89.8 88.7 82.7
****
U.S. 2017-18 Stockpiles (millions)
Thursday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Sept.
Corn 2,340.0 2,249 1,985-2,450 2,335
Soybeans 430.0 453 375-503 475
Wheat 960.0 946 928-971 933
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2016-17
Thursday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Sept.
Corn 227.0 226.4 225.0-229.5 227.0
Soybeans 94.9 95.2 94.5-96.4 96.0
Wheat 256.6 252.4 225.5-256.2 255.8
2017-18
Thursday’s Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast Range Sept.
Corn 201.0 201.5 196.7-204.0 202.5
Soybeans 96.1 96.5 93.9-98.0 97.5
Wheat 268.1 262.9 258.0-265.4 263.1

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Oct 12
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soy oil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound)
bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======US====== ================WORLD==============
Ending Stocks Exports Production
17-18 16-17 15-16 : 17-18 16-17 15-16 17-18 16-17 15-16
Soybeans 430 301 197 :150.97 147.46 132.46 347.88 351.25 313.71
Brazil na na : 64.00 63.14 54.38 107.00 114.10 96.50
Argentina na na : 8.00 6.90 9.92 57.00 57.80 56.80
China na na : 0.15 0.12 0.11 14.20 12.90 11.79
Soyoil 1,537 1,632 1,687 : 11.85 11.43 11.68 56.16 53.90 51.50
Corn 2,340 2,295 1,737 :150.71 163.80 119.69 1,038.80 1,075.33 972.36
China na na : 0.05 0.08 0.00 215.00 219.55 224.63
Argentina na na : 29.00 25.50 21.64 42.00 41.00 29.00
S. Africa na na : 1.70 2.50 0.84 12.50 17.48 8.21
Cotton(a) 5.80 2.75 3.80 : 38.22 37.39 35.23 120.86 106.61 96.17
All Wheat 960 1,181 976 :180.04 182.48 172.84 751.19 754.15 735.26
China na na : 0.80 0.75 0.73 130.00 128.85 130.19
EU 27 na na : 28.50 27.31 34.69 151.04 145.47 160.48
Canada na na : 21.00 20.20 22.11 27.00 31.70 27.59
Argentina na na : 11.50 13.00 9.60 17.50 18.40 11.30
Australia na na : 18.00 23.00 16.12 21.50 33.50 22.28
Russia na na : 32.50 27.81 25.54 82.00 72.53 61.04
Ukraine na na : 16.50 18.11 17.43 26.50 26.80 27.27
Sorghum 28 34 37 : na na na
Barley 70 106 102 : na na na
Oats 30 50 57 : na na na
Rice 27.8 46.0 46.5 : 44.19 44.62 40.25 483.80 487.13 472.57

DJ US Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Oct 13
For the week ended Oct 5, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1. The
marketing year for cotton and rice began Aug 1. The marketing
year for corn, soybeans and sorghum began Sep 1.
For soy meal and soy oil, “this year” is the 2017-2018 marketing
year, which began Oct 1, while “Last year” is 2016-17.
Source: USDA
wk’s net change total
in commitments undlvd sales
this year next year this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 175.0 0.0 14185.7 14908.4 4481.7 30.0
hrw 17.5 0.0 5259.4 6427.1 1323.5 0.0
srw 42.8 0.0 1407.6 1287.3 578.1 30.0
hrs 76.8 0.0 3918.8 4533.5 1253.4 0.0
white 36.8 0.0 3342.0 2455.6 1218.6 0.0
durum 1.0 0.0 258.0 205.0 108.2 0.0
corn 1593.2 15.2 13688.3 21477.2 9976.0 223.0
soybeans 1747.3 0.0 25078.1 29710.0 19820.2 121.0
soymeal 362.5-a 0.0 3312.0 2943.3 3277.7 121.1
soyoil 33.9-b 0.0 85.6 276.3 77.1 0.0
upland cotton 154.4 9.3 7548.8 5384.4 6043.0 763.3
pima cotton 22.0 0.0 337.0 355.1 296.9 19.7
sorghum 51.6 0.0 1364.6 1055.7 1017.6 0.0
barley 0.1 0.0 37.5 13.7 26.7 0.0
rice 36.4 0.0 787.9 1104.7 380.2 0.0
a: Includes new sales activity for Oct 1, which resulted
in a net increase of 106.0 thousand metric tons. Also includes
256.5 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2016-17.
b: Includes new sales activity for Oct 1, which resulted
in a net increase of 11.0 thousand metric tons. Also includes
22.9 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2016-17.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 13
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct. 16, 2017 4 Oct 05, 2017
SOYBEAN OIL October Oct. 16, 2017 19 Oct 10, 2017

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets a little lower on speculative selling tied to the USDA forecasts for bug world stocks. Some rain is coming to the Midwest that will help recharge soil moisture for winter crops, and traders hope for drier weather to emerge in the Great Plains. Prices are not good and producers are in no hurry to plant. It has been too dry in Winter Wheat areas of the Midwest, and too wet in parts of the central and southern Great Plains for best planting progress and emergence. The Chicago markets had been trying to hold a seasonal rally together, while Minneapolis has tried form a bottom after the big fall in prices over the last several weeks. World prices remain firm, and some say that demand can start to improve as US prices are relatively cheap in the world market. US Wheat should be more attractive than many other origins into other markets due to price and currency relationships. US planting of the next Winter Wheat crop has been slow to get started due to some dry conditions in parts of the Great Plains. It is also still dry in Australia and in parts of eastern Europe, and Argentina has been too wet. Weather is said to be improving in southern Russia to help with Winter Wheat development there
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather, but light showers are possible on Saturday. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should get dry weather, but light showers are possible on Saturday. Temperatures should be below normal today and tomorrow, then near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather after some light precipitation today. Temperatures will average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 412 December. Support is at 427, 423, and 420 December, with resistance at 440, 446, and 450 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 419 and 417 December. Support is at 420, 414, and 408 December, with resistance at 433, 439, and 444 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 599, 584, and 567 December. Support is at 606, 594, and 588 December, and resistance is at 620, 628, and 645 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher in reaction to the USDA reports that showed less yield potential and less production. The production data allowed USDA to cut US domestic ending stocks. The data implies that prices should stay strong and could move higher over time. The harvest is about over in the Delta and most Rice has been put into storage to wait for higher prices. The buying yesterday kept futures in a short-term range, but one with a view that higher prices could be coming. Reports from the country indicate good to very good yields and quality for the Delta as the harvest comes to a close in most areas. Interior cash prices are reported generally steady so far this week, and reports indicate that selling by producers has been limited as they hope for another push to higher prices. California will be the last to finish as the Delta harvest is about over now. Yields in California right now are lower than hoped for as the late start to planting appears to have created a short season and less yield potential.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers on Sunday, otherwise mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to above normal through the weekend, then near to below normal..
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1235 and 1335 November. Support is at 1208, 1200, and 1192 November, with resistance at 1233, 1245, and 1258 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was near unchanged as USDA produced a neutral crop report. The harvest has been slow this week due to rains in the Midwest. Reports indicate that farmers are not really selling due to expanding harvest activity and on weak basis levels being paid in some areas. Areas near the Mississippi River are still reporting very weak basis levels as there is little transport from the northern half of the river right now. Minnesota and Wisconsin saw a lot of rain last week, and there are hopes that river levels sill start to rise again and permit easier shipping of the crops. Harvest yield reports for Corn are strong as some fields in central and eastern areas of the Corn Belt are harvested. Many traders expect more variable yields to be reported moving forward. Harvest progress should expand this week, but the western Midwest harvest will remain very slow as farmers in many areas try to let the crops dry in the field due to the low prices and costs of drying.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 346, 343, and 340 December, and resistance is at 356, 358, and 360 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 267 December. Support is at 253, 248, and 246 September, and resistance is at 267, 268, and 271 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were sharply higher as USDA showed reduced yield potential in the production reports and reduced ending stocks projections for the current marketing year. The market is also watching the weather in Brazil and that remains unfavorable for good planting progress. The harvest is likely to stay slow this week as there are rains in the Midwest. Rains moved through Chicago yesterday. The harvest is active in areas east of the Mississippi River, while areas to the west of the river have very little work done. The yield data generally runs behind year ago levels. However, producers had expected worse yields and are mostly happy right now. Producers are looking to harvest the Soybeans before the Corn as they hope to let the Corn dry down in the fields and save on drying costs basis levels should start to improve as the river levels move higher due to recent rains. It remains too dry for best planting in the northern half of Brazil, while the southern half of Brazil and the northern half of Argentina get too much rain. It is planting time for Soybeans there, but progress is very slow right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up with objectives of 1003, 1013, and 1043 November. Support is at 987, 978, and 967 November, and resistance is at 997, 1002, and 1013 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with no objectives. Support is at 324.00, 321.00, and 316.00 December, and resistance is at 328.00, 332.00, and 334.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3280, 3230, and 3220 December, with resistance at 3350, 3360, and 3390 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher along with Chicago price action. Some support came from stronger world vegetable oils prices. Support is coming as recent rains and snow in the Prairies have created concerns of harvest delays. The delays are of biggest concern in Alberta, while Saskatchewan reported that yields are about at historical averages amid faster than normal harvest progress. The cash market is said to be well supplied right now as farmers have been delivering Canola. Palm Oil was higher on what was called speculative buying tied to better demand ideas. Export data for the first third of the month was considered positive for prices. Charts show that the market has held support.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 492.00, 490.00, and 487.00 November, with resistance at 500.00, 503.00, and 507.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2680, 2650, and 2620 December, with resistance at 2720, 2750, and 2770 December.

Monthly MPOB Supply and Demand Report:
Observation period : September
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Tuesday, 10 Oct
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.83 mil tonnes, Up 1.1%
Exports – 1.61 mil tonnes, Up 8.1%
Ending Stocks – 2.00 mil tonnes, Up 3.1%
Actual as follows:
Production – 1.78 mil tonnes, Down 1.7%
Exports – 1.52 mil tonnes, Up 1.8%
Ending Stocks – 2.02 mil tonnes, Up 4.0%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.81 mil tonnes, Down 0.9%
Exports – 1.49 mil tonnes, UP 6.4%
Ending Stocks – 1.94 mil tonnes, Up 8.8%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and rains again over the weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October 25-Dec 177 Dec 40 Dec 22-Nov 4-Dec
November 32 Dec 61 Dec 33 Nov
December 38 Dec 58 Dec 33 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
October
November minus 16 Dec 50 Dec
December minus 15 Dec 67 Dec
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 11
Winnipeg, October 11 – The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 475.20 down 1.50
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 503.50 down 1.70
2 Can 490.50 down 1.70
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 518.50 down 1.70
2 Can 505.50 down 1.70
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 211.00 unchanged
Can Feed N/A
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 205.00 down 3.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – October 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 680.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 680.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 677.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 675.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 685.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 685.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 682.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 677.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 695.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 642.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 2,750 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 343.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2195)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 193,334 lots, or 7.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 3,677 3,763 3,677 3,763 3,731 3,720 -11 16 88
Jan-18 3,810 3,843 3,802 3,820 3,825 3,823 -2 181,998 205,330
Mar-18 3,850 3,850 3,840 3,840 3,840 3,842 2 8 24
May-18 3,845 3,880 3,835 3,861 3,847 3,862 15 11,144 31,926
Jul-18 – – – 3,913 3,913 3,913 0 0 4
Sep-18 3,878 3,906 3,878 3,887 3,874 3,889 15 162 736
Nov-18 – – – 3,874 3,874 3,874 0 0 2
Jan-19 3,945 3,950 3,939 3,939 3,933 3,944 11 6 148
Mar-19 – – – 3,941 3,941 3,941 0 0 0
Corn
Turnover: 406,534 lots, or 6.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 1,639 1,639 1,633 1,634 1,632 1,634 2 28 932
Jan-18 1,678 1,686 1,676 1,677 1,674 1,679 5 338,730 913,630
Mar-18 1,691 1,699 1,690 1,692 1,686 1,693 7 138 1,156
May-18 1,725 1,733 1,723 1,726 1,721 1,726 5 64,622 330,510
Jul-18 1,747 1,752 1,747 1,749 1,742 1,748 6 44 496
Sep-18 1,754 1,757 1,751 1,752 1,748 1,753 5 2,972 22,474
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,480,734 lots, or 41.73 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 2,816 2,902 2,816 2,902 2,808 2,870 62 1,698 374
Dec-17 2,774 2,868 2,772 2,858 2,785 2,854 69 104 400
Jan-18 2,769 2,855 2,765 2,855 2,769 2,827 58 1,226,308 1,663,780
Mar-18 2,718 2,850 2,718 2,850 2,771 2,805 34 84 270
May-18 2,715 2,802 2,714 2,789 2,717 2,770 53 241,870 700,828
Jul-18 – – – 2,815 2,751 2,815 64 0 218
Aug-18 – – – 2,813 2,751 2,813 62 0 174
Sep-18 2,737 2,822 2,735 2,811 2,739 2,799 60 10,670 40,128
Palm Oil
Turnover: 603,572 lots, or 33.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-17 – – – 5,600 5,600 5,600 0 0 0
Nov-17 – – – 5,698 5,698 5,698 0 0 4
Dec-17 – – – 5,600 5,600 5,600 0 0 2
Jan-18 5,560 5,584 5,472 5,584 5,548 5,528 -20 548,438 416,284
Feb-18 5,590 5,596 5,590 5,596 5,532 5,594 62 6 4
Mar-18 – – – 5,568 5,568 5,568 0 0 2
Apr-18 – – – 5,584 5,584 5,584 0 0 10
May-18 5,526 5,546 5,456 5,546 5,522 5,502 -20 54,036 122,344
Jun-18 – – – 5,562 5,562 5,562 0 0 6
Jul-18 – – – 5,542 5,562 5,542 -20 0 4
Aug-18 – – – 5,582 5,602 5,582 -20 0 2
Sep-18 5,478 5,480 5,408 5,472 5,460 5,446 -14 1,092 3,720
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 424,952 lots, or 25.81 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 6,078 6,078 6,078 0 0 26
Dec-17 – – – 5,998 5,998 5,998 0 0 14
Jan-18 6,074 6,092 6,008 6,084 6,058 6,058 0 378,488 718,238
Mar-18 – – – 6,190 6,190 6,190 0 0 6
May-18 6,212 6,222 6,142 6,210 6,192 6,190 -2 45,846 138,374
Jul-18 – – – 6,404 6,406 6,404 -2 0 4
Aug-18 – – – 6,418 6,420 6,418 -2 0 6
Sep-18 6,256 6,288 6,218 6,288 6,266 6,260 -6 618 2,826
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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