Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was mixed in consolidation trading. October and December were slightly lower, but the deferred months were slightly higher. The market is waiting for USDA and the latest production and supply and demand reports that will be released later today. Ideas are that the recent weather has been good for maturing crops and harvest activities. Hurricane Nate apparently did no real damage, although the rains might slow the harvest in some areas The harvest ahead seems to be the most important factor as USDA is expecting a huge crop, but storms have damaged production potential since the last report and USDA weekly condition reports have reflected some deterioration. The charts suggest that futures can trade between 6500 and 7500 for a while. Bolls are opening and harvest is expanding under relatively good conditions as it has been relatively dry.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast should mostly dry weather except for a few showers on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures should average near to above normal through Sunday, then near to below normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions except for some showers on Saturday. Temperatures will be near to above normal this week and near to below normal next week. The USDA average price is now 67.06 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 6,674 bales, from 6,003 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6820, 6780, and 6740 December, with resistance of 6940, 6970, and 7000 December.
Wire: Bloomberg News (BN) Date: Oct 9 2017 13:40:00
Cotton Production, Inventory Survey Before USDA WASDE Report
By Dominic Carey
(Bloomberg) — The following table shows results of a Bloomberg News survey
of as many as eight analysts for the USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand
report on the 2017-18 cotton crop, which is scheduled for release at noon in
Washington on Oct. 12. Figures are in millions of bales.
|——Survey Results——|USDA Priors
2017-18:| Avg | Low | High | Sept. | 2016-17
US Production | 21.2| 20.2| 21.5| 21.8| 17.2
US Exports | 14.6| 14.0| 15.0| 14.9| 14.9
US End Stocks | 5.7| 5.2| 6.3| 6.0| 2.8
World Production | 120.1| 118.8| 121.5| 120.8| 106.7
World Consumption| 117.9| 117.5| 118.3| 117.8| 113.7
World End Stocks | 92.0| 90.6| 93.0| 92.5| 89.6
| | | End
Estimates: | Production | Exports |Stocks | Production | Consumption |Stocks
Doane | 21.3| 14.9| 5.8| 121.5| 118.0| 93.0
Love | | | | | |
Consulting | 21.0| 15.0| 5.4| 120.0| 118.0| 91.6
Price Futures| | | | | |
Group | 21.5| 14.9| 5.5|n/a |n/a |n/a
Rabobank | 21.1| 14.0| 6.3| 118.8| 117.8| 90.6
Rose | | | | | |
Consulting | 21.2| 14.5| 5.6| 120.0| 118.3| 92.3
Texas A&M; | | | | | |
Robinson | 21.5| 14.7| 6.1| 121.0| 117.8| 92.8
Tullet Prebon| 21.5| 14.5| 5.9|n/a |n/a |n/a
Wedbush | | | | | |
Securities | 20.2| 14.0| 5.2| 119.5| 117.5| 91.5
SOURCE: Bloomberg News
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher again as traders prepared for the USDA production reports that will be released later today. Chart trends turned up with the price action again yesterday. Florida Mutual said Tuesday that it estimates Oranges production in the state at just 31 million boxes, an amount well below other private trade estimates that range from 50 to 62 million boxes. The market expects USDA to show significant damage to the Oranges crops in Florida, but the Florida Mutual estimate was considered extreme. Ideas remain that the Orange groves are badly damaged in Florida due to Irma. Crops in many areas were almost completely destroyed. Other areas suffered losses of 50% or more of the crop. Some growers say that trees will be stressed again next year due to the winds and rains from Irma. The demand side remains weak and there are plenty of supplies in the US. Trees that are still alive now are showing fruit of good sizes, although many have lost a lot of the fruit. Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition and production estimates are climbing after recent rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get daily chances for showers and storms and near to above normal temperatures. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up with objectives of 164.00, 165.00, and 169.00 November. Support is at 159.00, 155.00, and 150.00 November, with resistance at 165.00, 168.00, and 172.00 November.
DJ USDA October 2017-18 Florida Orange Crop Estimate — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates, in millions of boxes, for 2017-18 U.S. Florida orange production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal ahead of the October forecasts by the federal government.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated estimates at noon ET Thursday.
Average Range USDA 2016-2017
Production (5) 50.60 31.00-62.50 68.70
J. Ganes Consulting 58.00
Kerr Trading 50.50
Price Futures Group 62.50
Florida Citrus Mutual 31.00
General Comments: New York and London both closed lower on speculative selling tied to ideas that the coming Brazil crop could be big. Many traders had expected a lower day yesterday after the disappointing price action from Tuesday, but no one really seemed to expect the big losses seen. The recent rains in Brazil has promoted flowering for the next crop, and the flowering seems to be very good. However, it is dry again now and there are no real forecasts for a wet period for the next two weeks as a high pressure ridge has moved into the northern part of the country. Most areas will need to see some consistent rainfall now to keep the potential for a big crop alive as trees need to recover from stress from the production year last year and also the cold and dry Winter. The weather in Brazil and the condition of the trees is getting attention as La Nina is coming and Coffee areas are already dry. There are still reports of defoliation to trees, and that does not Support ideas of big production potential down the road. There will be a lot of talk about the rains and what it means to production potential for the next few weeks.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.845 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 119.85 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather, but as few light showers are possible over the weekend. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers and storms, but less intense as Nate moves north. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 126.00, 124.00, and 119.00 December, and resistance is at 130.00, 133.00 and 136.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1960 and 1920 November. Support is at 1960, 1950, and 1920 November, and resistance is at 2000, 2030, and 2040 November.
General Comments: Futures were higher again in both New York and in London as UNICA showed a strong crushing pace. The production was less than expected, ad this was important to the market as well as it implies that the crop might be overestimated. The market has been holding Support, but has not given any buy signal on the daily charts. The fundamental side of the market remains mostly negative due to ideas of big world production. Brazil has turned dry after recent rains, and more rain is needed after the dry Winter. The Sugar areas look to stay dry and very warm for the next two weeks. The market is thinking more and more about La Nina and the potential for drought in pasts of Brazil this year. Upside price potential is limited as there are still projections for a surplus in the world production,and these projections for the surplus seem to be bigger. Trends are mostly sideways in both markets.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature warm and dry weather, but a few light shows are possible this weekend.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1380, 1350, and 1320 March, and resistance is at 1450, 1470, and 1490 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 368.00, 359.00, and 354.00 December, and resistance is at 380.00, 384.00, and 391.00 December.
General Comments: Futures closed higher in reaction to the higher than expected European grind. The trends turned up again with the price action yesterday, and traders will hope for similar gains in the grind in North America and Asia. That data should be released during the next week.. World production ideas remain high. Harvest reports show good to very good production will be seen this year in West Africa. Ghana and Ivory Coast expects a very good crop this year. Nigeria and Cameroon are reporting good yields on the initial harvest, and also good quality. Prices paid to producers have been improving due to the good quality of the crop The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East African could use more rain, but Cocoa is growing. Good conditions are still seen in Southeast Asia. Traders talk of increased demand to go against big world production as prices are now attractive for grinders and chocolate manufacturers. New grind data should be released starting next week.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.420 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2220 December. Support is at 2060, 2000, and 1990 December, with resistance at 2110, 2130, and 2150 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1560, 1530, and 1520 December, with resistance at 1590, 1620, and 1650 December.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017
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