Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2017 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday.
U.S. 2017 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA Sept. USDA 2016
Corn Production 14,168 13,836-14,329 14,184 15,148
Corn Yield 169.7 167.0-171.2 169.9 174.6
Harvested Acres 83.5 82.9-84.0 83.5 86.7
Soybean Production 4,439 4,321-4,480 4,431 4,296
Soybean Yield 49.8 48.5-50.2 49.9 52.0
Harvested Acres 89.1 88.5-89.8 88.7 82.7
Corn Harvested Soybean Harvested
Production Yield Acres Production Yield Acres
Advanced Market 14,184 169.9 83.5 4,456 49.9 89.3
AgriSource 14,061 169.5 83.0 4,441 49.5 89.7
Agrivisor 14,169 169.7 83.5 4,444 49.8 89.2
Allendale 14,146 169.5 83.5 4,464 49.7 89.8
DC Analysis 14,153 169.7 83.4 4,453 49.8 89.4
Doane 14,027 168.0 83.5 4,465 50.0 89.3
EDF Man 14,236 170.5 83.5 4,478 50.2 89.2
Farm Futures 14,293 171.2 83.5 4,477 50.0 89.6
Hueber Report 14,060 168.7 83.3 4,400 49.6 88.6
INTL FCStone 14,162 169.2 83.7 4,461 49.9 89.4
Sid Love Consultin 14,127 170.0 83.1 4,425 50.0 88.5
MaxYield 14,310 170.4 84.0 4,480 50.0 89.5
North Star Commodi 14,211 170.2 83.5 4,335 49.1 88.7
Price Group 14,160 169.5 83.5 4,468 50.2 89.0
Prime Ag 14,184 169.9 83.5 4,431 49.9 88.7
RMC 14,288 170.4 83.5 4,431 49.9 88.7
US Commodities 14,203 170.0 83.5 4,437 50.0 88.7
Vantage RM 14,211 170.2 83.5 4,445 50.1 88.7
Western Milling 13,836 167.0 82.9 4,321 48.5 89.1
Zaner 14,329 171.2 83.7 4,463 50.2 88.9

DJ U.S. October Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2017-18, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2017-18
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 2,249 1,985-2,450 2,335
Soybeans 453 375-503 475
Wheat 946 928-971 933
2017-18
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 2,253 456 955
AgriSource 2,136 425 945
Agrivisor 2,239 435 959
Allendale 2,304 475 944
DC Analysis 2,123 481 953
Doane 2,092 500 933
EDF Man 2,385 500 963
Farm Futures 2,223 430 928
Hueber Report 2,168 429 950
INTL FCStone 2,245 462 939
Sid Love Consulting 2,173 401 934
MaxYield 2,450 425 933
North Star Commodity 2,350 375 950
Price Group 2,230 463 954
Prime-Ag 2,280 430 935
RMC 2,335 475 933
US Commodities 2,203 477 947
Vantage RM 2,375 470 950
Western Milling 1,985 503 934
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,425 443 971
AVERAGE 2,249 453 946
USDA Sept. 2,335 475 933

DJ October World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2016-17 and 2017-18, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2016-17
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 226.4 225.0-229.5 227.0
Soybeans 95.2 94.5-96.4 96.0
Wheat 252.4 225.5-256.2 255.8
2017-18
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 201.5 196.7-204.0 202.5
Soybeans 96.5 93.9-98.0 97.5
Wheat 262.9 258.0-265.4 263.1

2016-17 2017-18
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 225.5 95.0 225.5 200.5 97.0 262.0
Agrivisor N/A N/A N/A 201.0 96.5 263.4
Allendale 226.5 95.2 255.7 201.9 96.9 264.4
Doane N/A 95.0 N/A N/A 97.0 N/A
EDF Man 226.0 94.5 N/A 204.0 98.0 265.0
Farm Futures 226.0 95.0 N/A 203.1 97.0 262.0
Hueber Report 226.0 96.4 256.0 201.5 97.3 261.5
INTL FCStone 225.8 94.8 255.7 196.7 93.9 261.6
MaxYield 229.5 95.0 256.0 204.0 96.0 264.0
North Star Comm 226.0 95.0 256.0 203.0 95.0 264.0
Prime-Ag 225.0 95.0 255.0 201.0 97.0 258.0
RMC 227.0 96.0 256.2 202.6 97.5 263.4
US Commodities 226.5 95.5 N/A 201.4 97.0 264.0
Western Milling 227.0 96.0 255.8 201.0 96.0 262.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 225.8 94.9 N/A 199.4 95.7 265.4

Alerts History
• 10-Oct-2017 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL GRAIN OUTPUT SEEN BETWEEN 224.1 MLN T AND 228.2 MLN T IN 2017/18 CROP CYCLE VS 238.5 MLN IN PREVIOUS ONE – FIRST CONAB PREVIEW
• 10-Oct-2017 07:00:00 AM – HIGHLY FAVORABLE WEATHER SEEN IN THE LAST CROP CYCLE UNLIKELY TO BE REPEATED IN THE 2017/18 PERIOD – FIRST CONAB PREVIEW
• 10-Oct-2017 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL SOY PLANTED AREA SEEN INCREASING BY AN AVERAGE OF 2.7 PCT TO UP TO 35.2 MLN HECTARES – FIRST CONAB PREVIEW
• 10-Oct-2017 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL FIRST CORN PLANTED AREA SEEN REDUCED BY UP TO 10.1 PCT FROM PRIOR CROP CYCLE – FIRST CONAB PREVIEW
• 10-Oct-2017 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL SOY AND CORN WILL ACCOUNT FOR ABOUT 89 PCT OF ALL GRAINS HARVESTED IN 2017/18 CROP CYCLE – FIRST CONAB PREVIEW
• 10-Oct-2017 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL GRAIN PLANTING AREA IN 2017/18 PERIOD MAY GROW UP TO 1.8 PCT FROM PRIOR CYCLE TO UP TO 62 MLN HECTARES – FIRST CONAB PREVIEW
• 10-Oct-2017 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL SOY OUTPUT SEEN BTW 106 MLN T-108.2 MLN T IN 2017/18 PERIOD VS 114 MLN T IN PRIOR CYCLE – FIRST CONAB PREVIEW
• 10-Oct-2017 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL TOTAL CORN OUTPUT SEEN BTW 92.2 MLN T-93.6 MLN T IN 2017/18 PERIOD VS 97.8 MLN T IN PRIOR CYCLE – FIRST CONAB PREVIEW
Brazil 2017/18 grain output may drop up to 6 pct on climate factors – Conab – Reuters News
10-Oct-2017 07:09:55 AM
SAO PAULO, Oct 10 (Reuters) – Brazilian farmers are expected to produce fewer grains like corn and soy as the highly favorable weather seen in the last crop cycle will unlikely be repeated in the 2017/18 period, according to food supply and statistics agency Conab on Tuesday.
In its first forecast for 2017/18 crop, Conab estimated Brazilian grain production at between 224.1 million tonnes and 228.2 million tonnes compared with 238.5 million in the prior cycle, a reduction that could reach 6 percent. Soy and corn will account for about 89 percent of Brazil’s output, Conab said.
(Reporting by Ana Mano and José Roberto Gomes; Writing by Ana Mano)

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 10
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct. 11, 2017 68 Sep 29, 2017
SOYBEAN OIL October Oct. 11, 2017 73 Oct 06, 2017

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed lower on what was reported to be strong fund selling. The charts show that the market had not been able to stage much of a recovery in prices, so the funds took prices down again. Chart patterns show that trends in Chicago are starting to turn down again, and Minneapolis could also turn trends down today. The Chicago markets had been trying to hold a seasonal rally together, while Minneapolis has tried form a bottom after the big fall in prices over the last several weeks. Export sales have been holding, but have not been strong enough to create much speculative buying. World prices remain firm, and some say that demand can start to improve as US prices are relatively cheap in the world market. US Wheat should be more attractive than many other origins into other markets due to price and currency relationships. US planting of the next Winter Wheat crop has been slow to get started due to some dry conditions in parts of the Great Plains. It is also still dry in Australia and in parts of eastern Europe, and Argentina has been too wet.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers today, then dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should get dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal today and tomorrow, then near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather until a chance for Snow appears on Friday. Temperatures will average below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 412 December. Support is at 436, 431, and 429 December, with resistance at 446, 450, and 455 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 428, 419, and 417 December. Support is at 426, 420, and 414 December, with resistance at 439, 444, and 447 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 599, 584, and 567 December. Support is at 618, 606, and 594 December, and resistance is at 626, 645, and 653 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower again yesterday as the harvest starts to wind down and as the market looks for some new buying interest. Reports from the country indicate good to very good yields and quality for the Delta as the harvest comes to a close in most areas. Interior cash prices are reported generally steady through last week, and reports indicate that selling by producers has been limited as they hope for another push to higher prices. There has been some limited selling by producers, but mostly at prices well above futures levels. California will be the last to finish. Yields in California right now are lower than hoped for as the late start to planting appears to have created a short season and less yield potential.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers at midweek and again this weekend. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1151 and 1101 November. Support is at 1180, 1170, and 1167 November, with resistance at 1201, 1208, and 1217 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower yesterday on fund selling. The selling came in response to reports of good yields on the limited amount of Corn that has been harvested so far. Some buying had been expected yesterday due to ideas of better rainfall in the Midwest to ease some of the low river levels and allow for easier transportation of crops and as farmers concentrate on the Soybeans harvest at the expense of Corn. However, the buying did not really develop. Reports indicate that farmers are not really selling due to expanding harvest activity and on weak basis levels being paid in some areas. Areas near the Mississippi River are still reporting very weak basis levels as there is little transport from the northern half of the river right now. Minnesota and Wisconsin saw a lot of rain last week, and there are hopes that river levels sill start to rise again and permit easier shipping of the crops. That should allow basis levels to firm. Ohio River transportation has been stalled due to some lock and dam problems. Harvest yield reports for Corn are strong as some fields in central and eastern areas of the Corn Belt are harvested. Many traders expect more variable yields to be reported moving forward. Harvest progress should expand this week, but the western Midwest harvest will remain very slow as farmers in many areas try to let the crops dry in the field due to the low prices and costs of drying.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 346, 344, and 340 December, and resistance is at 351, 356, and 358 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 246, 244, and 242 September, and resistance is at 253, 254, and 260 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower in response to ideas of good harvest results and no new buying reports from China.. Soybean Oil was higher on spreads against Soybean Meal and on strength in Canola and Palm Oil. Ideas that China will start to buy again this week, but no sales announcements were made yesterday as USDA was closed. The country was closed last week for the annual harvest moon festival. The harvest is active in areas east of the Mississippi River, while areas to the west of the river have very little work done. The yield data was not super strong in many places and generally runs behind year ago levels. However, producers had expected worse yields and are mostly happy right now. Producers are looking to harvest the Soybeans before the Corn as they hope to let the Corn dry down in the fields and save on drying costs. Harvest activities were interrupted late last week and over the weekend as rains moved through the Midwest. The rains will slow the harvest for a couple of days, but the rains were needed to help river levels improve for shipping crops to export terminals and other areas. Basis levels should start to improve as the river levels move higher. It remains too dry for best planting in the northern half of Brazil, while the southern half of Brazil and the northern half of Argentina get too much rain. It is planting time for Soybeans there, but progress is very slow right now.
Overnight News: China bought 131,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 960, 950, and 947 November, and resistance is at 978, 988, and 997 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 319.00 and 325.00 Decrmber. Support is at 313.00, 310.00, and 308.00 December, and resistance is at 321.00, 325.00, and 326.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3160 December. Support is at 3280, 3230, and 3220 December, with resistance at 3340, 3360, and 3390 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was closed for the holiday yesterday. It was Thanksgiving Day in Canada and Columbus Day in the US. Support is coming as recent rains and snow in the Prairies have created concerns of harvest delays. The delays are of biggest concern in Alberta, while Saskatchewan reported that yields are about at historical averages amid faster than normal harvest progress. The cash market is said to be well supplied right now as farmers have been delivering Canola. Palm Oil was lower on the bearish MPOB monthly supply and demand updates. Production was lower than expected, but weaker export demand meant higher than expected ending stocks. Ideas continue that production is trending seasonally lower and that stocks at the end of last month could be lower. Export data for the first third of the month was considered positive for prices. Charts show that the move lower can be extended this week.
Overnight News: ITS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are 448,349 tons so far this month, from 379,652 tons last month. SGS said exports were 462,082 tons, up 16.5% from last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 499.00 November. Support is at 493.00, 490.00, and 487.00 November, with resistance at 498.00, 503.00, and 507.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2690, 2650, and 2620 December, with resistance at 2750, 2770, and 2820 December.

Monthly MPOB Supply and Demand Report:
Observation period : September
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Tuesday, 10 Oct
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.83 mil tonnes, Up 1.1%
Exports – 1.61 mil tonnes, Up 8.1%
Ending Stocks – 2.00 mil tonnes, Up 3.1%
Actual as follows:
Production – 1.78 mil tonnes, Down 1.7%
Exports – 1.52 mil tonnes, Up 1.8%
Ending Stocks – 2.02 mil tonnes, Up 4.0%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.81 mil tonnes, Down 0.9%
Exports – 1.49 mil tonnes, UP 6.4%
Ending Stocks – 1.94 mil tonnes, Up 8.8%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and rains move from west to east at midweek and again over the weekend. Temperatures will average near to mostly above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October 33 Dec 180 Dec 45 Dec 26-Nov 4-Dec
November 35 Dec 55 Dec 36 Nov
December 39 Dec 58 Dec 37 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
October 49 Dec
November minus 16 Dec 52 Dec
December minus 15 Dec 60 Dec
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 6
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 475.20 up 1.80
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 506.70 up 1.50
2 Can 493.70 up 1.50
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 521.70 up 1.50
2 Can 508.70 up 1.50
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 211.00 unchanged
Can Feed N/A
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 208.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 10
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 677.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 677.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 677.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 670.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Oct 682.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 682.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 682.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 675.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 682.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 635.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 2,730 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 340 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.2200)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 10
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 293,128 lots, or 11.30 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 3,718 3,718 3,718 0 0 90
Jan-18 3,828 3,882 3,818 3,880 3,806 3,852 46 269,172 271,720
Mar-18 – – – 3,871 3,825 3,871 46 0 24
May-18 3,863 3,880 3,846 3,861 3,833 3,862 29 23,550 23,174
Jul-18 3,938 3,938 3,937 3,937 3,988 3,937 -51 6 4
Sep-18 3,894 3,910 3,886 3,888 3,877 3,897 20 340 614
Nov-18 – – – 3,888 3,888 3,888 0 0 2
Jan-19 3,949 3,955 3,933 3,941 3,939 3,945 6 60 118
Mar-19 – – – 3,941 3,941 3,941 0 0 0
Corn
Turnover: 483,250 lots, or 8.12 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 1,633 1,634 1,623 1,634 1,637 1,629 -8 192 940
Jan-18 1,667 1,676 1,666 1,671 1,672 1,671 -1 406,202 980,388
Mar-18 1,687 1,687 1,682 1,682 1,681 1,684 3 12 1,140
May-18 1,718 1,722 1,714 1,717 1,719 1,718 -1 74,072 312,294
Jul-18 1,748 1,748 1,747 1,748 1,744 1,747 3 8 526
Sep-18 1,743 1,750 1,743 1,747 1,748 1,748 0 2,764 19,862
Soymeal
Turnover: 817,102 lots, or 22.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 2,819 2,831 2,812 2,812 2,855 2,818 -37 136 290
Dec-17 2,801 2,801 2,775 2,775 2,797 2,791 -6 12 386
Jan-18 2,782 2,794 2,771 2,774 2,785 2,781 -4 689,826 1,626,400
Mar-18 2,789 2,789 2,773 2,780 2,786 2,785 -1 18 268
May-18 2,730 2,739 2,718 2,720 2,734 2,727 -7 121,888 696,728
Jul-18 2,758 2,758 2,758 2,758 2,762 2,758 -4 2 220
Aug-18 – – – 2,733 2,733 2,733 0 0 174
Sep-18 2,749 2,762 2,742 2,743 2,755 2,749 -6 5,220 35,280
Palm Oil
Turnover: 388,496 lots, or 21.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-17 – – – 5,600 5,600 5,600 0 0 0
Nov-17 – – – 5,698 5,698 5,698 0 0 4
Dec-17 – – – 5,600 5,600 5,600 0 0 2
Jan-18 5,582 5,582 5,528 5,546 5,588 5,554 -34 351,192 434,358
Feb-18 5,568 5,572 5,556 5,572 5,654 5,562 -92 14 12
Mar-18 – – – 5,604 5,604 5,604 0 0 2
Apr-18 – – – 5,584 5,584 5,584 0 0 10
May-18 5,558 5,558 5,504 5,520 5,564 5,522 -42 36,796 107,180
Jun-18 – – – 5,562 5,562 5,562 0 0 6
Jul-18 5,592 5,592 5,592 5,592 5,616 5,592 -24 2 4
Aug-18 – – – 5,632 5,656 5,632 -24 0 2
Sep-18 5,502 5,502 5,454 5,460 5,498 5,470 -28 492 2,798
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 290,788 lots, or 17.75 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 6,080 6,080 6,076 6,076 6,104 6,078 -26 8 26
Dec-17 – – – 5,972 5,688 5,972 284 0 12
Jan-18 6,112 6,120 6,060 6,066 6,120 6,088 -32 258,154 691,892
Mar-18 6,180 6,180 6,180 6,180 6,116 6,180 64 2 6
May-18 6,226 6,230 6,178 6,192 6,228 6,204 -24 31,662 126,674
Jul-18 – – – 6,418 6,418 6,418 0 0 4
Aug-18 – – – 6,432 6,432 6,432 0 0 6
Sep-18 6,300 6,306 6,258 6,264 6,300 6,274 -26 962 1,868
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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