Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher as Tropical Storm Nate has formed off the coast of Central America. It became a hurricane before hitting the southern US starting Sunday. However, it is not expected to be very damaging to crops as it was a Category 1 storm. Most of the damage would be caused by rain, and the damage could be only temporary if the rains move through the growing areas quickly this week. Ideas are that the recent weather has been good for maturing crops and harvest activities. The harvest ahead seems to be the most important factor as USDA is expecting a huge crop, but storms have damaged production potential since the last report and USDA weekly condition reports have reflected some deterioration. The charts suggest that futures can trade between 6500 and 7500 for a while. Bolls are opening and harvest is expanding under relatively good conditions as it has been relatively dry.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast should see some precipitation this weekend. Temperatures should average above normal. Texas will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 67.35 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 5,445 bales, from 5,444 bales yesterday. ICE said that 3 contracs were posted for delivery against October futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 34 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6780, 6740, and 6700 December, with resistance of 6930, 6970, and 7000 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 03, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 301,733
: Positions :
: 69,532 18,597 68,388 72,250 193,602 77,408 5,716 287,578 286,303: 14,155 15,430
: Changes from: September 26, 2017 (Change in open interest: -2,131) :
: -5,051 1,792 1,994 2,573 -5,955 -1,004 2 -1,488 -2,167: -642 36
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 23.0 6.2 22.7 23.9 64.2 25.7 1.9 95.3 94.9: 4.7 5.1
: Total Traders: 298 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 113 66 95 65 72 27 11 255 202:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower on Friday, but higher for the week. Another storm formed off the coast of Central America and could bring more rains to the southern US, but moved too far west to hurt crops in most if nota ll of Florida. Ideas remain that the Orange groves are badly damaged in Florida due to Irma. Crops in many areas were almost completely destroyed. Other areas suffered losses of 50% or more of the crop. Some growers say that trees will be stressed again next year due to the winds and rains from Irma. The demand side remains weak and there are plenty of supplies in the US. Trees that are still alive now are showing fruit of good sizes, although many have lost a lot of the fruit. Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition and production estimates are climbing after recent rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get daily chances for showers and storms and near to above normal temperatures. Some big rain totals are possible. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 165.00 November. Support is at 150.00, 146.00, and 142.00 November, with resistance at 160.00, 165.00, and 166.00 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 3, 2017
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,323 :
: Positions :
: 3,918 6,886 1,306 0 0 1,169 1,035 80 923 325 2,637 :
: Changes from: September 26, 2017 :
: -48 370 7 0 0 137 -44 1 202 -85 258 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 31.8 55.9 10.6 0.0 0.0 9.5 8.4 0.7 7.5 2.6 21.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 73 :
: 21 15 5 0 0 10 8 . 17 7 12 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York closed higher, and New York has left a potential doublé lo won the daily charts. London also closed higher, and both markets closed higher for the week. The recent rains should promote flowering for the next crop. There should be enough precipitation to create new flowering in the next week or so, and some expect very good flowering to be seen. However, it is dry again now and there are no real forecasts for a wet period for the next week or so. Most areas will need to see some consistent rainfall now to keep the potential for a big crop alive. The weather in Brazil and the condition of the trees is getting attention as La Nina is coming and Coffee areas are already dry, and trees are already stressed from the cold and dry Winter and big year last year. There will be a lot of talk about the rains and what it means to production potential for the next few weeks.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are slightly higher today and are about 1.841 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 122.33 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers and storms, but less intense as Nate moves north. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Vietnam exported 1.48 million tons of Coffee in 2016-17, down 14.9% from last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 126.00, 124.00, and 119.00 December, and resistance is at 130.00, 133.00 and 136.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2030 and 2090 November. Support is at 1990, 1960, and 1950 November, and resistance is at 2040, 2060, and 2080 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 03, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 247,485
: Positions :
: 35,591 66,630 68,243 86,963 96,115 43,330 8,554 234,127 239,542: 13,358 7,943
: Changes from: September 26, 2017 (Change in open interest: 22,991) :
: -744 12,423 12,309 8,388 -1,919 351 304 20,304 23,117: 2,687 -126
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.4 26.9 27.6 35.1 38.8 17.5 3.5 94.6 96.8: 5.4 3.2
: Total Traders: 485 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 154 142 144 130 119 25 13 374 367:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/03/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
121,628 66,795 61,793 4,570 8,048 2,685
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 54.9% 50.8% 3.8% 6.6% 2.2%
Number of Traders in Each Category
156 49 45 11 6 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
15,211 17,635 9,825 1,851 1,619 15,064
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
12.5% 14.5% 8.1% 1.5% 1.3% 12.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
22 30 19 11 12 22
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,627 4,958
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.6% 4.1%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were lower in both New York and London but closed higher for the week and held support areas on the weekly charts. There was additional talk of improved demand for White Sugar in world markets as London has suddenly become the stronger market. Futures in both markets are in a range, but act prepared to work higher. The fundamental side of the market is not apparently price positive due to ideas of big world production. There were more rains in southern Brazil production areas through the weekend, and some good rains were reported in southern growing areas. These rains could cause problems if they continue. The rains come as the market thinks more and more about La Nina and the potential for drought in pasts of Brazil this year. Upside price potential is limited as there are still projections for a surplus in the world production,and these projections for the surplus seem to be bigger. Trends are sideways in both markets.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature warm and dry weather.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1370 and 1280 March. Support is at 1380, 1350, and 1320 March, and resistance is at 1450, 1470, and 1490 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 340.00 December. Support is at 359.00, 354.00, and 348.00 December, and resistance is at 380.00, 384.00, and 391.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 03, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 777,228
: Positions :
: 123,475 225,155 131,009 250,484 340,267 209,152 13,149 714,120 709,580: 63,108 67,648
: Changes from: September 26, 2017 (Change in open interest: -26,347) :
: -3,050 16,735 1,611 -18,567 -38,490 -3,081 -256 -23,087 -20,400: -3,260 -5,947
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.9 29.0 16.9 32.2 43.8 26.9 1.7 91.9 91.3: 8.1 8.7
: Total Traders: 245 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 64 69 70 76 70 23 12 197 191:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/03/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
79,242 43,484 34,137 8,804 11,558 1,346
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 54.9% 43.1% 11.1% 14.6% 1.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
140 51 40 12 6 7
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
12,560 20,106 2,867 2,809 300 3,457
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
15.9% 25.4% 3.6% 3.5% 0.4% 4.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
14 29 11 8 4 10
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,914 5,471
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.9% 6.9%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed higher on Friday and also for the week, and the overall price action remains strong. The rally is coming as both Ivory Coast and Ghana look for ways to increase prices paid to farmers. World production ideas remain high. Harvest reports show good to very good production will be seen this year in West Africa. Ghana also expects a good crop this year. Nigeria and Cameroon are reporting good yields on the initial harvest, and also good quality. The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East African could use more rain, but Cocoa is growing. Good conditions are still seen in Southeast Asia. Traders talk of increased demand to go against big world production as prices are now attractive for grinders and chocolate manufacturers. New grind data should be released starting next week.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.493 million bags. Ivory Coast Cocoa arrivals were 24,000 tons through October 8, from 41,000 tons last year.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 2100 and 2200 December. Support is at 2050, 2020, and 2000 December, with resistance at 2100, 2110, and 2130 December. Trends in London are up with objectives of 1620 December. Support is at 1550, 1520, and 1480 December, with resistance at 1590, 1620, and 1650 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 03, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 289,043
: Positions :
: 48,321 74,699 57,662 127,701 129,225 37,695 17,545 271,379 279,131: 17,664 9,912
: Changes from: September 26, 2017 (Change in open interest: 2,318) :
: 1,386 -4,828 619 -1,267 7,743 1,331 -275 2,068 3,258: 251 -940
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.7 25.8 19.9 44.2 44.7 13.0 6.1 93.9 96.6: 6.1 3.4
: Total Traders: 275 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 90 93 95 49 39 24 7 228 179:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/03/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
339,868 214,497 190,479 17,797 24,924 22,983
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 63.1% 56.0% 5.2% 7.3% 6.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
160 52 49 15 10 13
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
24,779 45,388 24,700 4,678 421 26,908
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.3% 13.4% 7.3% 1.4% 0.1% 7.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
21 28 13 14 6 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,527 4,065
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.0% 1.2%
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

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