Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Informa Report Highlights:
Informa est US 2017 corn yield near 170.5 vs USDA 169.9
Informa est US 2017 soybean yield near 50.0 vs USDA 49.9
Informa raised World 2017 corn crop 1.7 mmt due to higher US
Informa raised World 2017 wheat crop 2.35 mmt due to higher FSU
Informa lowered World 2017 soybean crop 1.0 mmt due to lower Argentina
Informa raised 2017 World cotton crop 900 thousand bales due to higher India

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 6
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct. 09, 2017 88 Sep 27, 2017
SOYBEAN OIL October Oct. 09, 2017 254 Oct 05, 2017
ETHANOL October Oct. 06, 2017 28 Sep 29, 2017

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed a little lower in Chicago, but a higher in Minneapolis in consolidation trading. The export sales report was in line or above trade expectations. Export sales have been holding, but have not been strong enough to create much speculative buying. World prices remain firm, and some say that demand can start to improve now as US prices are relatively cheap in the world market. US Wheat should be more attractive than many other origins into other markets due to price and currency relationships. World and US conditions are still far from perfect, and US planting of the next Winter Wheat crop has been slow to get started due to some dry conditions in parts of the Great Plains. It is also still dry in Australia and in parts of eastern Europe, and Argentina has been too wet.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers through Friday, then dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should get dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal late this week and cooler this weekend. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 436, 431, and 429 December, with resistance at 450, 455, and 465 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 428, 419, and 417 December. Support is at 432, 426, and 420 December, with resistance at 444, 447, and 451 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 599, 584, and 567 December. Support is at 606, 594, and 588 December, and resistance is at 626, 645, and 653 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower as the harvest starts to wind down and as the market looks for some new volume. Interior cash prices are reported generally steady this week, and reports indicate that selling by producers has been limited as they hope for another push to higher prices. The harvest advances is winding down with ideas of decent yields and good quality. Delta harvest activity should be finishing up and California will be the last to finish. Mississippi and Missouri are the states with the most to harvest in the Delta. Yields in California right now are lower than hoped for as the late start to planting appears to have created a short season and less yield potential. Field yields in the entire Rice Belt have been variable to good, and quality is generally called good.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1180, 1170, and 1167 November, with resistance at 1208, 1217, and 1223 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher again in response to a good export sales report. Reports indicate that farmers are not really selling due to expanding harvest activity and on weak basis levels being paid in some areas. Areas near the Mississippi River are reporting very weak basis levels as there is little transport from the northern half of the river right now. Ohio River transportation has been stalled due to some lock and dam problems. These problems should ease this week as there re forecasts for some good rains for the Corn Belt the rest of the week. The lack of rain in the Corn Belt has cause driver levels to be too low to haul grain. Harvest yield reports for Corn are strong as some fields in central and eastern areas of the Corn Belt are harvested. It is still early, and there are a lot more fields to be cut. Many traders expect more variable yields to be reported moving forward. Harvest progress should expand this week, but producers seem to be more interested in harvesting Soybeans right now instead of Corn
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 195,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 341 and 333 December. Support is at 346, 344, and 340 December, and resistance is at 351, 356, and 358 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 244, 242, and 238 September, and resistance is at 251, 253, and 254 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were higher and Soybean Meal was higher in response to a strong weekly export sales report. Ideas that China was starting to buy again also supported Soybeans. Soybean Oil was lower. The harvest is active in areas east of the Mississippi River, while areas to the west of the river have very little work done. The yield data was not super strong in many places and generally runs behind year ago levels. Producers are looking to harvest the Soybeans before the Corn as they hope to let the Corn dry down in the fields and save on drying costs. Some beneficial rains were reported in Brazil over the weekend, but these were few and far between in the north, they were mostly in the south. It is turning drier now.. It is planting time for Soybeans there, but many producers have not yet started as it has been too dry.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 960, 950, and 947 November, and resistance is at 978, 988, and 997 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 319.00 and 325.00 Decmber. Support is at 313.00, 310.00, and 308.00 December, and resistance is at 321.00, 325.00, and 326.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3160 December. Support is at 3280, 3230, and 3220 December, with resistance at 3340, 3360, and 3390 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was mixed to a little higher as the Canadian Dollar moved lower. Speculators were on both sides of the market. The market has been holding due to reduced production there. The harvest is active in most areas, and yield reports for now indicate better than expected production. Harvest progress was possible in Alberta as the weather was better than forecast. Producers should enjoy some dry weather this week to allow for more active harvest progress. The cash market is said to be well supplied right now. Palm Oil was higher on speculative buying tied to the outside markets and hopes for lower stocks levels in the MPOB reports the next week. Ideas continue that production is trending seasonally lower and that stocks at the end of last month could be lower. China is holiday this week so demand from that origin will be significantly less until late week at the earliest. Charts show that the move lower can be extended this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 490.00, 487.00, and 483.00 November, with resistance at 498.00, 503.00, and 507.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2690, 2650, and 2620 December, with resistance at 2750, 2770, and 28600 December.

Trade Estimates for the Monthly MPOB Supply and Demand Report:
Observation period : September
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Tuesday, 10 Oct
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.83 mil tonnes, Up 1.1%
Exports – 1.61 mil tonnes, Up 8.1%
Ending Stocks – 2.00 mil tonnes, Up 3.1%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.81 mil tonnes, Down 0.9%
Exports – 1.49 mil tonnes, UP 6.4%
Ending Stocks – 1.94 mil tonnes, Up 8.8%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and rains move from west to east over the weekend. Temperatures will average mostly above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October 42 Dec 180 Dec 45 Dec 34 Nov 4-Dec
November 37 Dec 58 Dec 39 Nov
December 39 Dec 58 Dec 35 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
October 47 Dec
November 80 November minus 17 Dec 48 Dec
December minus 17 Dec 58 Dec
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 5
By Commodity News Service Canada
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 473.40 up 0.30
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 505.20 up 1.80
2 Can 492.20 up 1.80
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 520.20 up 1.80
2 Can 507.20 up 1.80
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 211.00 unchanged
Can Feed N/A
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 208.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – October 6
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 682.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 682.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 680.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 675.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 687.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 687.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 685.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 680.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 685.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 640.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 2,740 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 338.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2350)
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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