Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ FAO Food Price Index Up 1.4% in September
By David Hodari
LONDON–World food prices rose in September due to more expensive vegetable oil and dairy prices, the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization said Thursday.
The FAO’s food price index rose by 1.4% last month from August, up 4.3% on its September 2016 level.
Vegetable oil prices continued to rise, increasing 4.5% on month, hitting a seven-month high and rising for the second consecutive month. Lower palm oil production in Southeast Asia and slow planting in South America saw prices strengthen, the report said.
Dairy prices rose 4.5%, up 27.4% on the previous year, but 18.6% below their February 2014 peak, the FAO said.
The serial price index dropped 1.6% from August, with ample South American maize supplies and Russian wheat production weighing on prices, the U.N. body’s report said.
Meat prices are unchanged since July.
Sugar prices were also flat, after an August decline followed a sharp rally in July that was driven by speculation and currency considerations. Heavy global supply meant that prices were down 33% on the year, the report noted.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Oct 5
For the week ended Sep 28 in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soy meal and
soy oil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 492.3 0.0 14010.8 14417.5 4632.3 30.0
hrw 176.8 0.0 5241.9 6084.2 1448.2 0.0
srw 33.0 0.0 1364.8 1283.8 536.2 30.0
hrs 191.0 0.0 3842.0 4412.4 1293.9 0.0
white 86.1 0.0 3305.2 2433.6 1246.8 0.0
durum 5.4 0.0 257.0 203.5 107.2 0.0
corn 814.1 0.0 12164.1 20603.7 9052.4 207.8
soybeans 1016.1 0.0 23330.8 28293.0 19263.1 121.0
soymeal 12.0 328.5 10440.9 10752.7 409.3 2949.6
soyoil 2.6 14.6 1141.7 1190.8 41.4 51.7
upland cotton 161.0 28.6 7394.4 5157.5 6006.6 754.0
pima cotton 23.6 0.0 315.0 343.0 279.2 19.7
sorghum 116.0 0.0 1315.5 996.5 1029.6 0.0
barley 0.4 0.0 37.4 13.6 27.4 0.0
rice 47.7 0.0 751.4 954.7 363.1 0.0

DJ U.S. August Oilseed, Meal, Oils/Fats Exports-Oct 5
In kilograms (top). Oils in pounds, soybeans in bushels, meal and hulls in
short tons (bottom). Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Aug 17 Jul 17 Jun 17 Aug 16(*)
soybeans 3,076,280,569 2,262,997,694 1,795,507,919 4,149,584,161
soy oil 74,016,292 90,466,994 62,725,009 42,257,881
crude 58,152,578 65,286,168 47,928,651 28,378,457
refined 190,405 155,966 321,080 104,245
other/1 15,423,919 24,815,136 14,094,006 13,436,688
hydrogenated 249,390 209,724 381,272 338,491
cottonseed oil 5,077,047 2,442,670 2,660,474 2,673,713
crude 184,241 74,736 13,443 425,796
refined 958,356 625,829 2,254,881 519,961
other/1 3,873,343 1,691,079 358,042 1,727,956
hydrogenated 61,107 51,026 34,108 0
sun seeds 307,571 872,851 4,054,373 81,941
sun seeds oil 2,549,288 3,577,611 3,260,949 3,827,641
rapeseed 6,366,661 19,459,950 7,375,383 3,352,907
rapeseed oil 5,910,377 8,266,809 5,895,896 12,695,095
crude 850,219 3,455,992 814,657 6,907,719
refined 5,060,158 4,810,817 5,081,239 5,787,376
linseed meal 235,311 277,716 346,360 525,080
cottonseed meal 12,309,936 10,354,626 8,755,521 9,126,619
soymeal 667,072,312 589,901,428 612,308,227 603,668,112
soymeal/flour 122,917,017 105,305,544 145,922,198 78,102,953
soymeal hulls 4,245,000 6,045,000 13,986,000 6,822,000
lard 1,307,877 1,074,923 1,384,018 1,398,825
edible tallow 4,711,536 5,108,101 5,066,843 10,579,433
inedible tallow 13,752,576 26,819,524 27,432,741 26,860,878
ch white grease 43,730 11,951 18,128 35,854
——- In Bushels, Pounds or Short Tons ——-
Aug 17 Jul 17 Jun 17 Aug 16(*)
soybeans 113,032,801 83,150,078 65,972,945 152,469,553
soyoil 163,178,020 199,445,616 138,284,998 93,162,696
crude 128,204,511 143,931,388 105,664,606 62,563,799
refined 419,771 343,846 707,860 229,821
other/1 34,003,927 54,708,020 31,071,970 29,622,831
hydrogenated 549,811 462,362 840,561 746,245
cottonseed oil 11,192,975 5,385,166 5,865,342 5,894,529
crude 406,182 164,765 29,637 938,720
refined 2,112,814 1,379,717 4,971,163 1,146,318
other/1 8,539,261 3,728,192 789,348 3,809,492
hydrogenated 134,718 112,493 75,195 0
sunseeds 678,078 1,924,307 8,938,364 180,649
sunseed oil 5,620,219 7,887,283 7,189,163 8,438,505
rapeseed 14,036,087 42,901,853 16,259,939 7,391,896
rapeseed oil 13,030,153 18,225,197 12,998,228 27,987,898
crude 1,874,412 7,619,159 1,796,012 15,228,916
refined 11,155,741 10,606,038 11,202,216 12,758,982
linseed meal 259 306 382 579
cottonseed meal 13,569 11,414 9,651 10,060
soymeal 735,314 650,248 674,947 665,423
soymeal flour/me 135,491 116,078 160,850 86,093
soymeal hulls 4,679 6,663 15,417 7,520
lard 2,883,376 2,369,800 3,051,238 3,083,882
edible tallow 10,387,161 11,261,437 11,170,479 23,323,661
inedible tallow 30,319,245 59,126,939 60,478,852 59,218,109
ch white grease 96,408 26,347 39,965 79,045

DJ U.S. August Grain Exports-Oct 5
In kilograms (top) and in bushels (bottom), except flour in cwt and malt
in pounds. /1 denotes includes commercial and donated. Source: U.S. Department
of Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Aug 17 Jul 17 Jun 17 Aug 16(*)
Barley 1,138,000 2,623,108 4,775,910 2,023,414
Corn /1 3,494,450,000 4,730,859,000 4,926,909,000 5,659,687,000
Sorghum 317,330,000 669,811,000 223,240,000 481,749,000
Oats 2,587,944 2,645,831 3,907,223 5,746,514
Rye 393,684 609,957 1,306,164 21,000
Wheat /1 2,315,142,727 2,279,195,551 3,031,016,650 2,728,275,233
wheat flour /1 32,724,711 28,642,104 28,760,221 27,432,461
Malt 36,591,351 31,591,514 45,763,609 44,639,263
——- In Bushels, CWT or Pounds ——-
Aug 17 Jul 17 Jun 17 Aug 16(*)
Barley 52,267 120,477 219,354 92,934
Corn /1 137,569,008 186,243,781 193,961,849 222,809,748
Sorghum 12,492,602 26,369,024 8,788,480 18,965,426
Oats 178,293 182,281 269,183 395,899
Rye 15,498 24,013 51,421 827
Wheat /1 85,066,060 83,745,241 111,369,654 100,245,925
wheat flour /1 721,456 631,450 634,054 604,782
Malt 80,670,134 69,647,378 100,891,505 98,412,746
1/Includes commercial and donated.

DJ U.S. Aug Soymeal, Vegetable Oils/Oilseed Imports-Oct 5
In kilograms from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to pounds
by Dow Jones.
—-Aug 2017—- —-Jul 2017—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
coconut oil 38,884,423 85,740,153 24,963,716 55,044,994
palm kernel oil 44,429,913 97,967,958 35,104,344 77,405,079
palm oil 117,885,744 259,938,066 118,892,065 262,157,003
soybean 36,336,018 80,120,920 43,256,147 95,379,804
soymeal 0 0 0 0
soyoil 8,798,014 19,399,621 10,337,953 22,795,186
rapeseed oil
edible 177,003,207 390,292,071 163,385,081 360,264,104
rapeseed oil,
inedible 0 0 3,000 6,615

DJ U.S. August Grain Imports-Oct 5
In kilograms, from the U.S. Commerce Department, converted to
pounds by Dow Jones.
—-Aug 2017—- —-Jul 2017—-
kilograms pounds kilograms pounds
durum wheat 10,973,319 24,196,168 10,406,240 22,945,759
spring wheat 11,016,176 24,290,668 11,773,175 25,959,851
winter wheat 37,688,237 83,102,563 26,849,884 59,203,994
wheat/meslin 106,875,498 235,660,473 23,886,847 52,670,498
TOTAL WHEAT 166,553,230 367,249,872 72,916,146 160,780,102
barley 10,075,910 22,217,382 6,655,461 14,675,292
oats 508,269 1,120,733 95,805 211,250
corn 66,884,491 147,480,303 86,289,574 190,268,511
other corn 28,963,673 63,864,899 29,956,196 66,053,412
TOTAL CORN 95,848,164 211,345,202 116,245,770 256,321,923

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 5
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL October Oct. 06, 2017 164 Sep 29, 2017

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed a little lower on ideas that demand for US Wheat is not all that strong. Export sales have been holding, but have not been strong enough to create much speculative buying. For now, the sales and shipments appear to imply that the USD target is close. World prices remain firm, and some say that demand can start to improve now as US prices are relatively cheap in the world market. US Wheat should be more attractive than many other origins into other markets due to price and currency relationships. World and US conditions are still far from perfect, and US planting of the next Winter Wheat crop has been slow to get started due to some dry conditions in parts of the Great Plains. It is also still dry in Australia and in parts of eastern Europe, and Argentina has been too wet.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers through Friday, then dry weather over the weekend. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should get dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal late this week and cooler this weekend. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 440, 436, and 431 December, with resistance at 450, 455, and 465 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 428, 419, and 417 December. Support is at 432, 426, and 420 December, with resistance at 444, 447, and 451 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 599, 584, and 567 December. Support is at 606, 594, and 588 December, and resistance is at 626, 645, and 653 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed near unchanged in uneventful trading. Interior cash prices are reported generally steady to start this week. The harvest advances even with ideas of decent yields and good quality. Delta harvest activity should wind down in the next couple of weeks and California will be the last to finish. Mississippi and Missouri are the states with the most to harvest in the Delta. Yields in California right now are lower than hoped for as the late start to planting appears to have created a short season and less yield potential. Field yields in the entire Rice Belt have been variable to good, and quality is generally called good.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1196, 1193, and 1180 November, with resistance at 1217, 1223, and 1231 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower again on ideas of expanding harvest activity and on weak basis levels being paid in some areas. Areas near the Mississippi River are reporting very weak basis levels as there is little transport from the northern half of the river right now. Ohio River transportation has been stalled due to some lock and dam problems. These problems should ease this week as there re forecasts for some good rains for the Corn Belt the rest of the week. The lack of rain in the Corn Belt has cause driver levels to be too low to haul grain. Harvest yield reports for Corn are strong as some fields in central and eastern areas of the Corn Belt are harvested. It is still early, and there are a lot more fields to be cut. Many traders expect more variable yields to be reported moving forward. Harvest progress should expand this week, but producers seem to be more interested in harvesting Soybeans right now instead of Corn
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 341 and 333 December. Support is at 346, 344, and 340 December, and resistance is at 351, 356, and 358 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 244, 242, and 238 September, and resistance is at 251, 253, and 254 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were a little higher and Soybean Meal was a little lower in consolidation trading. Soybean Oil was higher on strength in Canola and Palm Oil. The harvest is active in areas east of the Mississippi River, while areas to the west of the river have very little work done. The yield data was not super strong in many places and generally runs behind year ago levels. Producers are looking to harvest the Soybeans before the Corn as they hope to let the Corn dry down in the fields and sabe on drying costs. Some beneficial rains were reported in Brazil over the weekend, but these were few and far between in the north, they were mostly in the south. It is turning drier now.. It is planting time for Soybeans there, but many producers have not yet started as it has been too dry.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 935 and 914 November. Support is at 950, 947, and 941 November, and resistance is at 963, 970, and 978 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 310.00, 308.00, and 304.00 December, and resistance is at 317.00, 321.00, and 325.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3160 December. Support is at 3280, 3230, and 3220 December, with resistance at 3330, 3360, and 3390 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher in low volume trading. Speculators were on both sides of the market. The market has been holding due to reduced production there. The harvest is active in most areas, and yield reports for now indicate better than expected production. Harvest progress was possible in Alberta as the weather was better than forecast. Producers should enjoy some dry weather this week to allow for more active harvest progress. The cash market is said to be well supplied right now. Palm Oil was higher on speculative buying tied to the outside markets and hopes for lower stocks levels in the MPOB reports the next week. Ideas continue that production is trending seasonally lower and that stocks at the end of last month could be lower. China is holiday this week so demand from that origin will be significantly less until late week at the earliest. Charts show that the move lower can be extended this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 490.00, 487.00, and 483.00 November, with resistance at 495.00, 498.00, and 503.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2650, 2620, and 2590 December, with resistance at 2750, 2770, and 28600 December.

Trade Estimates for the Monthly MPOB Supply and Demand Report:
Observation period : September
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Tuesday, 10 Oct
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.83 mil tonnes, Up 1.1%
Exports – 1.61 mil tonnes, Up 8.1%
Ending Stocks – 2.00 mil tonnes, Up 3.1%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.81 mil tonnes, Down 0.9%
Exports – 1.49 mil tonnes, UP 6.4%
Ending Stocks – 1.94 mil tonnes, Up 8.8%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and rains move southeast over the middle of the week Dry this weekend. Temperatures will average mostly above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October 42 Dec 180 Dec 45 Dec 34 Nov 4-Dec
November 37 Dec 58 Dec 39 Nov
December 39 Dec 58 Dec 35 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
October 48 Dec
November 80 November minus 16 Dec 50 Dec
December minus 15 Dec 58 Dec
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 4
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 473.10 up 1.60
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 503.40 up 0.30
2 Can 490.40 up 0.30
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 518.40 up 0.30
2 Can 505.40 up 0.30
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 211.00 unchanged
Can Feed N/A
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 208.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – October 5
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 680.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 680.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 680.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 675.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 685.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 685.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 685.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 680.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 685.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 640.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 2,740 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 337.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2270)
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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