Bill Moore
About The Author

Bill Moore

William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337

NOV SOYBEANS

The last two days, the action in Nov Beans has epitomized the Trading-range nature of the contract thru Sept!  On Friday, the USDA issued a friendly Qtly Stocks Report that moved Nov Beans to mid-range, but then today, heavy harvest pressure took away all those gains!

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FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 894,250 MT (1,036,604) & Thur sales were 3.0 MMT (1.82 – 2.50) – a record

10/2 –         132,000        China

9/28           132,000       Unk

9/27           132,000       China

  • CROP PROGRESS – Harv –  22%  (LW – 10,Avg – 26)

Ill – 30 (21)     Ind – 24(20)    Iowa – 16(23)

  • USDA QTLY  STOCKS – 9/29

                Bean Qtly stocks – 301 MB

(Est – 338    June -963     June ’16 – 197) These stocks were on a 10 year high but below expectations So the report was considered friendly

  • 8AM FLASH SALES –

9/28    132,000 – Unk             9/15      132,000     China

9/27    132,000 –  China          9/14      198,000     China

9/22    190,000 –  Mexico       9/13       167,370    Mexico

9/21    132,000 –  China          9/12       132,000    Unk

9/20    132,000     China          9/11       352,000    Unk

9/20    960,000    Unk              9/8         264,000    China

9/20     120,000    Unk             9/5         136,000    China

9/18     261,000    China

  • BETTER-THAN-EXPECTED YIELDS –seemed to be the rule rather Than the exception – implying that the last two USDA Reports Maybe weren’t overstated after all
  • OUTSIDES NOT HELPING – today the US Dollar is 50 points higher & crude oil is $1.50 lower – bad for US Exports & ethanol demand

Exports & good yields are keeping beans range-bound but excessive dryness over the past three weeks may render later yields disappointing!

DEC CORN

For the month of September, Dec Corn has been confined to a 15-cent range (345-360).  Better-than-expected yields have done battle with solid exports & a lower dollar to keep the mkt sideways – until the USDA updates production & yields on Thur Oct 12. Because of over 3 weeks of dryness in the Farm belt, many feel the later yields will be less!

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FACTORS IMPACTING THE MKT

  • EXPORTS – Mon Inspections were 782,346 MT (779,971) & Thur sales Were 320 MT (450-850)

Oct 2       597,464 MT       China

Sept 28   233,800 MT       UNK

  • CROP PROGRESS – Harv 17% (LW – 11,  Avg -26)

Ill –   21% (LW -11, Avg-38)

Ind –  16% (LW – 10, Avg – 23)

Iowa – 6% (LW – 6,   Avg – 18)

  • USDA QTLY STOCKS – 9/29

Corn Qtly Stocks 2,295 (Est-2,349  Sept 1,737)

  • USDA 10/12 SUPPLY& DEMAND – will update production, yield & Carryout (domestic & world) – the better than expected yields reports Suggest the #’s will be ratcheted up again

It seems to us, from current levels, there’s considerably more upside potential than downside!

  • The mkt is already on a 10 year low
  • It’s been trading on 14-14.2 BB crop for several months
  • Later-planted corn – as a result of all the dryness – May come in with lower yields

DEC WHEAT

Much like its sister mkts, Dec Corn & Nov Beans, Dec wht has been range-bound (430-460) for the month of Sept – with conflicting fundamentals contributing to its “ebb & flow”!

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  • Despite earlier drought-like conditions in the Dakotas, the USDA raised Its wht forecasts for Spring wht & all wht in its QTLY report – Fri 9/29
  • WW planting is behind at 36% (LW – 24, Avg – 43)
  • Russia’s wht crop is still on tap to be a record
  • The Australian & Argentine Crops have some issues – either too much rain Or not enough

DEC CATTLE

Much like the grains, Dec Cat is also a victim of “Range-itis” – trading between $113 & $117 since mid-Sept!  Once again bullish & bearish fundamentals have offset each other keeping prices range-bound!

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  • A week ago, both the cattle-on-feed & cold storage reports Were negative
  • Higher 4th Qtr Production is weighing on the mkt
  • Managed money traders are still net long 92,358 contracts – A real threat of “long liquidation selling”
  • While Dec Cat languishes in a tight range, Dec Hogs have rallied $6 (low to high) since the bearish Pig Crop last week!

DEC HOGS

Dec Hogs put in a seasonal low in classic, dramatic fashion – when a bearish Pig Crop Report (9/29) ignited a near-vertical $6.00 rally & upside break-out – despite heavy production & sluggish export demand!  It was a classic “buy the rumor – sell the fact” mkt action – as Dec Hogs apparently have already dialed in the big 4th QTR production increases expected!

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Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337

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