Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 4
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct. 05, 2017 67 Sep 27, 2017
SOYBEAN OIL October Oct. 05, 2017 172 Sep 29, 2017

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed a little higher as Egypt bought more Wheat from Russia and as Tunisia bought in a tender as well. Futures might still have limited downside potential right now as world prices remain firm. Ideas that demand can start to improve now as US prices are relatively cheap in the world market. US Wheat should be more attractive than many other origins into other markets due to price and currency relationships. World and US conditions are still far from perfect, and US planting of the next Winter Wheat crop has been slow to get started due to some dry conditions in parts of the Great Plains. It is also still dry in Australia and in parts of eastern Europe, and Argentina has been too wet.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers through Friday, then dry weather over the weekend. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should get dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal late this week and cooler this weekend. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 436, 431, and 429 December, with resistance at 450, 455, and 465 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 428, 419, and 417 December. Support is at 436, 426, and 420 December, with resistance at 444, 447, and 451 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 599, 584, and 567 December. Support is at 594, 588, and 582 December, and resistance is at 615, 626, and 645 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed near unchanged in quiet trading. Interior cash prices are reported generally steady to start this week. The harvest advances even with ideas of decent yields and good quality. Delta harvest activity should wind down in the next couple of weeks and California will be the last to finish. Mississippi and Missouri are the states with the most to harvest in the Delta. Yields in California right now are lower than hoped for as the late start to planting appears to have created a short season and less yield potential. Field yields in the entire Rice Belt have been variable to good, and quality is generally called good.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1193, 1180, and 1170 November, with resistance at 1223, 1231, and 1245 November.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Oct 4
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—-World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.12 9.63 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.74 9.98 0.00
Broken 9.12 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower on ideas of expanding harvest activity and on weak basis levels being paid in some areas. Areas near the Mississippi River are reporting very weak basis levels as there is little transport from the northern half of the river right now. Ohio River transportation has been stalled due to some lock and dam problems. These problems should ease this week as there re forecasts for some good rains for the Corn Belt the rest of the week. The lack of rain in the Corn Belt has cause driver levels to be too low to haul grain. Harvest yield reports for Corn are strong as some fields in central and eastern areas of the Corn Belt are harvested. It is still early, and there are a lot more fields to be cut. Many traders expect more variable yields to be reported moving forward. Harvest progress should expand this week, but producers seem to be more interested in harvesting Soybeans right now instead of Corn
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 349, 346, and 344 December, and resistance is at 356, 358, and 360 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 255 December. Support is at 250, 244, and 242 September, and resistance is at 254, 260, and 263 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower on reports of good harvest progress in central and Eastern sections of the Midwest. Soybean Oil was higher on strength in Canola and Palm Oil. The harvest is active in areas east of the Mississippi River, while areas to the west of the river have very little work done. The yield data was not super strong in many places and generally runs behind year ago levels. Producers are looking to harvest the Soybeans before the Corn as they hope to let the Corn dry down in the fields and sabe on drying costs. Some beneficial rains were reported in Brazil over the weekend, but these were few and far between in the north, they were mostly in the south. It is turning drier now.. It is planting time for Soybeans there, but many producers have not yet started as it has been too dry. The Soybeans harvest has started in a few sections of central and southern Illinois and Indiana, and yields so far have been strong. It is still very early and many more reports will be heard and will affect the price action over the next few weeks.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 935 and 914 November. Support is at 950, 947, and 941 November, and resistance is at 963, 970, and 978 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 310.00, 308.00, and 304.00 December, and resistance is at 317.00, 321.00, and 325.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 3160 December. Support is at 3220, 3190, and 3160 December, with resistance at 3300, 3330, and 3360 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher in low volume trading. Speculators were on both sides of the market. The market has been holding due to reduced production there. The harvest is active in most areas, and yield reports for now indicate better than expected production. Harvest progress was possible in Alberta as the weather was better than forecast. Producers should enjoy some dry weather this week to allow for more active harvest progress. The cash market is said to be well supplied right now. Palm Oil was higher on speculative buying. Ideas continue that production is trending seasonally lower and that stocks at the end of last month could be lower. China is holiday this week so demand from that origin will be significantly less until late week at the earliest. Charts show that the move lower can be extended this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 487.00, 483.00, and 480.00 November, with resistance at 495.00, 498.00, and 503.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2650, 2620, and 2590 December, with resistance at 2750, 2770, and 28600 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers and rains move southeast over the middle of the week Dry this weekend. Temperatures will average mostly above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October 42 Dec 180 Dec 45 Dec 34 Nov 4-Dec
November 37 Dec 58 Dec 39 Nov
December 39 Dec 58 Dec 35 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
October 46 Dec
November minus 16 Dec 48 Dec
December minus 15 Dec 58 Dec
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 3
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 471.50 dn 0.90
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 503.10 up 1.60
2 Can 490.10 up 1.60
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 518.10 up 1.60
2 Can 505.10 up 1.60
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 211.00 unchanged
Can Feed 240.00 N/A
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 208.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 4
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 677.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 675.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 672.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 667.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Oct 682.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 680.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 677.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 672.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 682.50 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 637.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 2,740 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 332.00 +02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.2260)
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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