Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Crop Progress
Date 1-Oct 24-Sep 2016 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 67 57 70 70
Cotton Harvested 17 14 15 13
Carn Dent 96 93 100 98
Corn Mature 68 51 84 78
Corn Harvested 17 11 23 26
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 80 63 81 78
Soybeans Harvested 22 10 24 26
Sorghum Coloring 94 90 96 94
Sorghum Mature 60 52 70 63
Sorghum Harvested 34 32 40 37
Rice Harvested 77 69 81 71
Sugar beets Harvested 22 15 19 23
Peanuts Harvested 25 12 26 21
Winter Wheat Planted 36 24 41 43
Winter Wheat Emerged 12 18 16

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Very Good
Cotton This Week 7 9 27 42 15
Cotton Last Week 6 8 26 43 17
Cotton Last Year 3 12 36 39 100
Corn This Week 3 9 25 49 14
Corn Last Week 4 9 26 47 14
Corn Last Year 2 6 19 53 20
Soybeans This Week 3 9 28 48 12
Soybeans Last Week 3 9 28 49 11
Soybeans Last Year 2 5 19 54 20
Sorghum This Week 2 6 28 52 12
Sorghum Last Week 2 6 28 52 12
Sorghum Last Year 1 5 28 52 14
Peanuts This Week 1 5 19 56 19
Peanuts Last Week 1 6 18 58 17
Peanuts Last Year 2 8 30 47 13
Pasture and Range This Week 10 16 33 36 5
Pasture and Range Last week 9 16 33 37 5
Pasture and Range Last Year 6 12 32 42 8

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Oct 2
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING SEP 28, 2017
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 09/28/2017 09/21/2017 09/29/2016 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 1,297 14,122 24,258
CORN 782,346 779,971 1,485,276 2,928,252 5,774,192
FLAXSEED 24 0 48 3,647 3,414
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 499 100 0 3,094 4,899
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 1,272 130,165 24,252 250,295 372,831
SOYBEANS 894,250 1,036,604 1,110,050 3,970,338 3,410,154
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 691,971 501,806 662,676 9,921,386 10,139,604
Total 2,370,362 2,448,646 3,283,599 17,091,134 19,729,352
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 3
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct. 04, 2017 10 Sep 27, 2017
SOYBEAN OIL October Oct. 04, 2017 97 Sep 28, 2017

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed lower on follow through selling from the annual Small Grains Production Report that showed higher than expected Spring Wheat and All Wheat production. A stronger US Dollar hurt demand ideas and caused additional selling. The reports showed more Spring Wheat and All Wheat production on Friday and was a surprise. However, futures might still have limited downside potential right now as world prices appear to be firm. Ideas that demand can start to improve now as US prices are relatively cheap in the world market. US Wheat should be more attractive than many other origins into other markets due to price and currency relationships. World and US conditions are still far from perfect, and US planting of the next Winter Wheat crop has been slow to get started due to some dry conditions in parts of the Great Plains. It is also still dry in Australia and in parts of eastern Europe, and Argentina has been too wet.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should get some showers today and Friday. Temperatures should be near to above normal late this week and cooler this weekend. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 436, 431, and 429 December, with resistance at 450, 455, and 465 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 428, 419, and 417 December. Support is at 436, 426, and 420 December, with resistance at 444, 447, and 451 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 599, 584, and 567 December. Support is at 594, 588, and 582 December, and resistance is at 615, 626, and 645 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher again Friday in quiet trading. The USDA progress reports showed that the harvest is starting to wind down in many areas, although California still remains a little behind. Interior cash prices are reported generally steady to start this week. The harvest advances even with ideas of decent yields and good quality. Delta harvest activity should wind down in the next couple of weeks and California will be the last to finish. Mississippi and Missouri are the states with the most to harvest in the Delta. Yields in California right now are lower than hoped for as the late start to planting appears to have created a short season and less yield potential. Field yields in the entire Rice Belt have been variable to good, and quality is generally called good.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 1193, 1180, and 1170 November, with resistance at 1223, 1231, and 1245 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower on ideas of expanding harvest activity and on weak basis levels being paid in some areas. Areas near the Mississippi River are reporting very weak basis levels as there is little transport from the northern half of the river right now. The lack of rain in the Corn Belt has cause driver levels to be too low to haul grain. It is raining to the northwest now and these rains should spread east this week so some partial improvement in river levels is possible later this week.. Harvest yield reports for Corn are strong as some fields in central and eastern areas of the Corn Belt are harvested. It is still early, and there are a lot more fields to be cut. Many traders expect more variable yields to be reported moving forward. Harvest progress should expand this week, but producers seem to be more interested in harvesting Soybeans right now instead of Corn. Brazil has been dry and some initial Soybeans planting has been delayed. Rains did fall over the weekend, but seemed to be confined to mostly southern growing areas. This might delay or prevent some planting of the Winter crop in Brazil in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 361 and 369 December. Support is at 350, 349, and 346 December, and resistance is at 356, 358, and 360 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 255 December. Support is at 250, 244, and 242 September, and resistance is at 260, 263, and 269 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower on reports of good harvest progress in central and Eastern sections of the Midwest. The harvest was active in areas east of the Mississippi River, while areas to the west of the river got very little work done. The yield data was not super strong in many places and generally runs behind year ago levels. Producers are looking to harvest the Soybeans before the Corn as they hope to let the Corn dry down in the fields and sabe on drying costs. Some beneficial rains were reported in Brazil over the weekend, but these were few and far between in the north, they were mostly in the south.. It is planting time for Soybeans there, but many producers have not yet started as it has been too dry. The Soybeans harvest has started in a few sections of central and southern Illinois and Indiana, and yields so far have been strong. It is still very early and many more reports will be heard and will affect the price action over the next few weeks.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 956, 950, and 947 November, and resistance is at 970, 978, and 988 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 310.00, 308.00, and 304.00 December, and resistance is at 317.00, 321.00, and 325.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 3160 December. Support is at 3220, 3190, and 3160 December, with resistance at 3300, 3330, and 3360 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower with Chicago. Speculators were on both sides of the market. A weaker Canadian Dollar help keep the losses smaller than those in Chicago. The market has been holding due to reduced production there. The harvest is active in most areas, and yield reports for now indicate better than expected production. Harvest progress was possible in Alberta as the weather was better than forecast. Producers should enjoy some dry weather this week to allow for more active harvest progress. The cash market is said to be well supplied right now. Palm Oil was higher as the Ringgit moved lower. It was the first up day in over a week. China is holiday this week so demand from that origin will be significantly less until late week at the earliest. Charts show that the move lower can be extended this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 487.00, 483.00, and 480.00 November, with resistance at 495.00, 498.00, and 503.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2650, 2620, and 2590 December, with resistance at 2750, 2770, and 28600 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry, with any precipitation confined to northern areas today. This rain moves southeast over the middle of the week Temperatures will average above normal early in the week and near to below normal late in the week.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
October 42 Dec 180 Dec 45 Dec 45 Nov 4-Oct
November 42 Dec 55 Dec 45 Nov
December 44 Dec 58 Dec 40 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
October 45 Dec
November minus 16 Dec 48 Dec
December minus 15.5 Dec 60 Dec
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Oct 2
Winnipeg–The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 472.40 up 1.60
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 501.50 dn 0.90
2 Can 488.50 dn 0.90
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 516.50 dn 0.90
2 Can 503.50 dn 2.70
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 211.00 up 1.00
Can Feed N/A
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 208.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 3
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 672.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 670.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 667.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 662.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Oct 677.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 675.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 672.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 667.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 677.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 635.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 2,720 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 330.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.2370)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

View Morning Grains Archiveswww.pricegroup.com

A Subsidiary of Price Holdings, Inc. – an Employee Owned Diversified Financial Services Firm. Member NIBA, NFA

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Security Question * * Time limit is exhausted. Please reload CAPTCHA.