Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower, but prices remain in a trading range overall. Ideas are that the weather is good for maturing crops and harvest activities. The harvest ahead seems to be the most important factor as USDA is expecting a huge crop, but storms have damaged production potential since the last report and USDA weekly condition reports have reflected some deterioration. The charts suggest that futures can trade between 6500 and 7500 for a while. The current trading range has been very narrow as the market waits for some kind of news to push values one way or another. Production and yield estimates from the country will be important after the storms hit Texas and the Southeast. Bolls are opening and harvest is expanding under relatively good conditions as it has been relatively dry.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast should be mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal. Texas will see chances for showers on Wednesday and Thursday, otherwise dry conditions. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 66.93 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 3,860 bales, from 3,020 bales yesterday. ICE said that 10 contracts were posted for delivery against October futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 21 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6820, 6790, and 6750 December, with resistance of 6930, 6970, and 7000 December.

DJ USDA Volume Of Cotton Classed Report- Sep 29
Data quoted in bales for week ending Sep 28. Totals may not add due
to rounding. * denotes data withheld to avoid disclosure of individual
producer information. Source: USDA
Weekly Season Weekly Season
Southeast 853 853 Southwest 103384 1008667
NC-* – – Okla – –
SC-* – – Texas 103,384 1,008,667
Ga 853 1,671 Kansas – –
Ala – –
Fla – – Far West 0 0
Va – – NM – –
Ariz * –
Delta 18632 20157 Calif – –
Miss 3,977 4,922
Tenn – – Pima – –
Mo – – Other 0 0
Ark 1,066 1,066 Total US 122,869 1,030,495
La 13,589 14,169 pct tenderable 78.6 86.7

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 26, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 303,864
: Positions :
: 74,584 16,805 66,394 69,677 199,557 78,412 5,714 289,066 288,470: 14,797 15,394
: Changes from: September 19, 2017 (Change in open interest: -3,968) :
: -4,182 825 -1,556 2,351 -3,676 -680 41 -4,067 -4,366: 98 397
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 24.5 5.5 21.8 22.9 65.7 25.8 1.9 95.1 94.9: 4.9 5.1
: Total Traders: 290 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 107 63 88 64 74 28 11 245 196:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher, but still act as if a further price recovery is possible. The weekly charts show that futures closed slightly higher after partially filling a chart gap left a few weeks ago. The lows of last week might hold for quite a while due to the loses to crops in Florida due to the hurricane. Ideas remain that the Orange groves are badly damaged in Florida due to Irma. New reports from growers associations suggest that crops in many areas were almost completely destroyed. Other areas suffered losses of 50% or more of the crop. Some growers say that trees will be stressed again next year due to the winds and rains from Irma. Florida weather is now drier. The demand side remains weak and there are plenty of supplies in the US. Trees that are still alive now are showing fruit of good sizes, although many have lost a lot of the fruit. Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition and production estimates are climbing after recent rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get daily chances for showers and storms and near to above normal temperatures. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 146.00, 142.00, and 140.00 November, with resistance at 152.00, 157.00, and 159.00 November.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack – Sep 29
In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)
WEEK ENDING: 9/16/2017
Corresponding
Current Week Last
Week Season
9/16/2017 9/17/2016 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 167.85 226.67 -26.0%
Retail/Institutional 6.06 6.33 -4.2%
Total 173.91 233.00 -25.4%
Pack
Bulk 0.49 1.66 -70.7%
Retail/Institutional 1.07 1.49 -28.2%
Total Pack 1.55 3.15 -50.6%
Reprocessed -1.55 -3.15 -50.6%
Pack from Fruit – (0.00) -100.0%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss 0.08 0.02 281.5%
Imports – Foreign 2.32 2.31 0.4%
Domestic Receipts – – NC
Receipts of Florida Product
from Non-Reporting Entity – – NC
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ – – NC
Reprocessed FCTJ 0.05 0.02 150.8%
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 169.23 227.53 -25.6%
Retail/Institutional 7.13 7.82 -8.8%
Total 176.36 235.35 -25.1%
MOVEMENT
Bulk
Domestic 2.68 4.01 -33.3%
Exports 0.03 0.08 -59.3%
Total (Bulk) 2.71 4.09 -33.8%
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 0.44 1.43 -69.4%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 0.44 1.43 -69.4%
Total Movement 3.15 5.52 -43.0%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 166.53 223.45 -25.5%
Retail/Institutional 6.69 6.38 4.9%
Ending Inventory 173.22 229.83 -24.6%
Total Same
Total Season Period Last
To Date Season
16-Sep-17 17-Sep-16 % Change
CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK
Carry Over
Bulk 212.24 281.45 -24.6%
Retail/Institutional 6.78 7.81 -13.2%
Total 219.03 289.26 -24.3%
Pack
Bulk 159.50 181.83 -12.3%
Retail/Institutional 68.38 76.91 -11.1%
Total Pack 227.89 258.74 -11.9%
Reprocessed -153.42 -166.19 -7.7%
Pack from Fruit 74.46 92.55 -19.5%
Receipts & Losses
Net Gain or Loss -4.17 -1.09 282.0%
Imports – Foreign 219.44 182.44 20.3%
Domestic Receipts 6.97 12.51 -44.3%
Receipts of Florida Product 3.12 0.23 1233.3%
from Non-Reporting Entity 2.58 5.53 -53.4%
Chilled OJ used in FCOJ 2.84 3.42 -16.9%
Reprocessed FCTJ
Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack
Bulk 449.11 500.13 -10.2%
Retail/Institutional 75.17 84.73 -11.3%
Total 524.27 584.85 -10.4%
MOVEMENT
Bulk 221.58 233.84 -5.2%
Domestic 61.01 42.83 42.4%
Exports 282.58 276.68 2.1%
Total (Bulk)
Retail/Institutional
Domestic 68.47 78.34 -12.6%
Exports – – NC
Total (Retail/Inst) 68.47 78.34 -12.6%
Total Movement 351.05 355.02 -1.1%
ENDING INVENTORY
Bulk 166.53 223.45 -25.5%
Retail/Institutional 6.69 6.38 4.9%
Ending Inventory 173.22 229.83 -24.6%

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 26, 2017
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 11,792 :
: Positions :
: 3,966 6,516 1,299 0 0 1,031 1,079 79 721 409 2,380 :
: Changes from: September 19, 2017 :
: 111 -508 -9 0 0 -249 -31 1 -120 -6 145 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 33.6 55.3 11.0 0.0 0.0 8.7 9.1 0.7 6.1 3.5 20.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 71 :
: 20 15 5 0 0 8 9 . 14 9 12 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower as some light and spotty precipitation was reported in Coffee areas of Brazil and in response to some forecasts for rains to improve in Brazil over the weekend and into this week. The rains would promote flowering for the next crop and might save some flowers that came from some early rains several weeks ago. There should be enough precipitation to create new flowering in the next week or so. The weather in Brazil and the condition of the trees is getting attention as La Nina is coming and Coffee areas are already dry. These rains should mark the end of the dry season and the start of the rainy season. There will be a lot of talk about the rains and what it means to production potential for the next few weeks.. The cash market remains quiet and tight. Production for the next crop is starting to be offered in Central America as the harvest has started.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are slightly lower today and are about 1.805 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 121.57 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather today, then chances for showers and storms. Temperatures should average near to above normal through the weekend, then cooler. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 127.00, 126.00, and 119.00 December, and resistance is at 133.00, 136.00 and 139.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1950, 1920, and 1910 November, and resistance is at 1990, 2010, and 2040 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 26, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 224,494
: Positions :
: 36,335 54,207 55,934 78,575 98,034 42,979 8,249 213,823 216,425: 10,671 8,069
: Changes from: September 19, 2017 (Change in open interest: -2,049) :
: 3,179 1,777 -6,141 607 1,455 -334 670 -2,690 -2,239: 640 189
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.2 24.1 24.9 35.0 43.7 19.1 3.7 95.2 96.4: 4.8 3.6
: Total Traders: 460 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 135 133 145 129 118 26 15 363 354:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/26/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
122,438 66,796 63,766 4,791 8,007 2,593
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 54.6% 52.1% 3.9% 6.5% 2.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
154 51 47 10 6 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
16,342 16,399 11,767 1,642 2,040 13,323
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
13.3% 13.4% 9.6% 1.3% 1.7% 10.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
21 29 20 8 14 22
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,184 4,543
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.2% 3.7%

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures were higher in both New York and London as light rains fell in Brazil. There were more forecasts for rains in Brazil production areas through the weekend, and some good rains were reported in growing areas. It is a sign that the rainy season is coming and ideas are that production potential for Brazil can now start to improve. The rains will be welcome as it has been hot and dry. Drier weather is expected for the rest of the week once the rains fade today. The rains come as the market thinks more and more about La Nina and the potential for drought in pasts of Brazil this year. Upside price potential is limited as there are still projections for a surplus in the world production,and these projections for the surplus seem to be bigger. Trends are sideways to down in both markets.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature warm and dry weather for the next week after some rains today.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1370 and 1280 March. Support is at 1380, 1350, and 1320 March, and resistance is at 1420, 1470, and 1490 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 340.00 December. Support is at 354.00, 348.00, and 342.00 December, and resistance is at 365.00, 368.00, and 372.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 26, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 803,575
: Positions :
: 126,524 208,420 129,398 269,051 378,757 212,234 13,405 737,207 729,980: 66,368 73,594
: Changes from: September 19, 2017 (Change in open interest: -56,065) :
: 5,745 15,604 -15,114 -47,917 -55,045 7,183 -1,284 -50,104 -55,839: -5,961 -225
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.7 25.9 16.1 33.5 47.1 26.4 1.7 91.7 90.8: 8.3 9.2
: Total Traders: 246 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 59 77 71 77 68 24 12 198 194:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/26/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
74,617 42,014 32,891 7,738 10,256 1,225
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 56.3% 44.1% 10.4% 13.7% 1.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
139 55 44 12 4 6
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
12,445 19,947 2,490 2,688 333 2,616
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
16.7% 26.7% 3.3% 3.6% 0.4% 3.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
14 29 10 8 3 8
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
3,401 4,859
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.6% 6.5%

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower, but is still in the trading range seen all week. Futures are now art the higher end of the range and any new buying early this week could trigger a Sharp short covering rally. World production ideas remain high as the ICCO has estimated world production at record levels at 4.7 million tons. Harvest reports show good to very good production will be seen this year in West Africa. Cocoa is offered in all countries, although Ivory Coast has sold a big part of their expected production. Traders talk now of increased demand to go against big world production as prices are now attractive for grinders and chocolate manufacturers. New grind data should be released next month. Ivory Coast is expected to have a big crop starting harvest this Fall. Ghana also expects a good crop this year. Nigeria and Cameroon are reporting good yields on the initial harvest. The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East African could use more rain, but Cocoa is growing. Good conditions are still seen in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.617 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1970, 1960, and 1950 December, with resistance at 2050, 2090, and 2110 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1480, 1460, and 1450 December, with resistance at 1520, 1550, and 1570 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 26, 2017
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 286,724
: Positions :
: 46,935 79,527 57,043 128,969 121,482 36,364 17,821 269,311 275,873: 17,414 10,852
: Changes from: September 19, 2017 (Change in open interest: -2,506) :
: 504 -5,442 -3,645 1,112 4,854 437 1,127 -1,591 -3,105: -914 599
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.4 27.7 19.9 45.0 42.4 12.7 6.2 93.9 96.2: 6.1 3.8
: Total Traders: 272 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 88 88 88 51 38 26 9 218 180:
——————————————————————————————————————-

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 09/26/2017
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options – ICE Futures Europe
332,812 213,581 184,243 21,626 26,199 20,449
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0% 64.2% 55.4% 6.5% 7.9% 6.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
159 52 47 17 9 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
23,597 49,251 21,616 3,165 391 25,978
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
7.1% 14.8% 6.5% 1.0% 0.1% 7.8%
Number of Traders in Each Category
16 31 17 14 7 21
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
2,800 4,686
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
0.8% 1.4%
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.

The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

 

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