Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher, but prices remain in a trading range overall. Export sales reported by USDA were OK, but not great. USDA will issue its quarterly stocks estimates this morning. The current weather in growing areas should continue to promote rapid development and harvest progress. The harvest ahead seems to be the most important factor as USDA is expecting a huge crop, but storms have damaged production potential since the last report. The charts suggest that futures can trade between 6500 and 7500 for a while. Production and yield estimates from the country will be important after the storms hit Texas and the Southeast. Bolls are opening and harvest is expanding under relatively good conditions as it has been dry. Some rains are forecast for Texas production areas this week, but the Delta and Southeast look to stay mostly dry to allow the harvest to gather speed.
Overnight News: The Delta and the Southeast should be mostly dry until some showers appear by the middle of next week. Temperatures should average above normal. Texas will see daily chances for showers through Saturday, then drier weather this weekend. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 67.44 ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks are now 3,020 bales, from 1,683 bales yesterday. ICE said that 11 contracts were posted for delivery against October futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 11 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6820, 6790, and 6750 December, with resistance of 6970, 7000, and 7040 December.
DJ On-Call Cotton – Sep 28
As of Sep 22. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.
*denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
Call Previous Change Call Previous Change
Oct 17 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 17 29,906 31,191 -1,285 17,503 17,431 72
Mar 18 39,362 38,293 1,069 4,448 4,319 129
May 18 22,021 21,322 699 623 553 70
Jul 18 21,091 20,620 471 1,389 1,195 194
Oct 18 0 0 0 0 0 0
Dec 18 13,044 12,695 349 9,692 9,625 67
Mar 19 3,231 3,099 132 528 528 0
May 19 1,263 1,263 0 0 0 0
Jul 19 1,041 1,041 0 0 0 0
Dec 19 2,283 2,283 0 3,370 3,370 0
Mar 20 842 842 0 146 146 0
Total 134,084 132,649 1,435 37,699 37,167 532
Oct 17 120 173 -53
Dec 17 134,250 141,088 -6,838
Mar 18 71,456 71,342 114
May 18 8,973 8,792 181
Jul 18 5,696 5,401 295
Oct 18 1 1 0
Dec 18 15,042 14,708 334
Mar 19 347 261 86
May 19 1 1 0
Jul 19 167 148 19
Dec 19 44 41 3
Mar 20 0 0 0
Total 236,097 241,956 -5,859
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower, but still act as if a further price recovery is possible. The lows of this week might hold for quite a while due to the loses to crops in Florida due to the hurricane. Ideas remain that the Orange groves are badly damaged in Florida due to Irma. New reports from growers associations suggest that crops in many areas were almost completely destroyed. Other areas suffered losses of 50% or more of the crop. Some growers say that trees will be stressed again next year due to the winds and rains from Irma. Florida weather is now drier. The demand side remains weak and there are plenty of supplies in the US. Trees that are still alive now are showing fruit of good sizes, although many have lost a lot of the fruit. Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition and production estimates are climbing after recent rains.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 146.00, 142.00, and 140.00 November, with resistance at 152.00, 157.00, and 159.00 November.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower as some light and spotty precipitation was reported in Coffee areas of Brazil and in response to some forecasts for rains to improve in Brazil by the end of this weekend. The rains would promote flowering for the next crop and might save some flowers that came from some early rains several weeks ago. There should be enough precipitation to create new flowering in the net week or so. The weather in Brazil and the condition of the trees is getting attention as La Nina is coming and Coffee areas are already dry. Early flowering has been reported in Brazil due to early rains, but it has turned dry again. Some producers are worried that the rains created premature flowering and that these flowers will fall and hurt overall production potential. The cash market remains quiet and tight. Production for the next crop is starting to be offered in Central America as the harvest has started.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.806 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 121.40 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather today, then chances for showers and storms. Temperatures should average near to above normal through the weekend, then cooler. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 127.00, 126.00, and 119.00 December, and resistance is at 133.00, 136.00 and 139.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1920, 1910, and 1890 November, and resistance is at 1970, 1990, and 2010 November.
General Comments: Futures were higher in both New York and London as light rains fell in Brazil. There are more forecasts for rains in Brazil production areas through the weekend. It is a sign that the rainy season is coming and ideas are that production potential for Brazil can now start to improve. The rains will be welcome as it has been hot and dry. The rains come as the market thinks more and more about La Nina and the potential for drought in pasts of Brazil this year. Cash markets show weakening differentials between whites and raw, so London remains the weaker futures market. Brazil mills are now processing more for ethanol than Sugar as the ethanol pays better and processors can get some better tax treatment in the country. However, the UNICA data showed that there is still a lot of Sugar being produced. Upside price potential is limited as there are still projections for a surplus in the world production,and these projections for the surplus seem to be bigger. Trends are down in both markets.
Overnight News: Brazil should feature warm and dry weather for the next week.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 1370 and 1280 March. Support is at 1380, 1350, and 1320 March, and resistance is at 1420, 1470, and 1490 March. Trends in London are down with objectives of 340.00 December. Support is at 354.00, 348.00, and 342.00 December, and resistance is at 365.00, 368.00, and 372.00 December.
General Comments: Futures closed lower, but is still in the trading range seen all week. Overall trading remained quiet. World production ideas remain high as the ICCO has estimated world production at record levels at 4.7 million tons. Harvest reports show good to very good production will be seen this year in West Africa. Cocoa is offered in all countries, although Ivory Coast has sold a big part of their expected production. Traders talk now of increased demand to go against big world production as prices are now attractive for grinders and chocolate manufacturers. New grind data should be released next month. Ivory Coast is expected to have a big crop starting harvest this Fall. Ghana also expects a good crop this year. Nigeria and Cameroon are reporting good yields on the initial harvest. The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East African could use more rain, but Cocoa is growing. Good conditions are still seen in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 4.634 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1960, 1950, and 1930 December, with resistance at 2030, 2050, and 2090 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1460, 1450, and 1430 December, with resistance at 1510, 1520, and 1550 December.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.
The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017
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