Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ September U.S. Wheat Production Estimates — Survey
New York–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2017 U.S. wheat production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated production forecasts at noon on Friday.
2017 Wheat Production
USDA
Average Range August 2016
All Wheat 1,725 1,679-1,769 1,739 2,310
Winter Wheat 1,287 1,275-1,296 1,287 1,672
Hard Red Winter 758 749-765 758 1,082
Soft Red Winter 306 301-316 306 345
White Winter 223 216-228 223 245
Other Spring 389 343-420 402 534
Durum 50 39-55 51 104
All Winter Other
Wheat Hard-Red Soft-Red White Spring Durum
Advanced Market 1,720 1,282 761 301 220 391 47
Allendale 1,735 1,287 758 306 223 394 54
DC Analysis 1,679 1,287 756 305 226 343 49
Doane 1,729 1,287 758 306 223 391 50
EDFMan Capital 1,730 1,285 755 305 225 395 50
Farm Futures 1,743 1,287 758 306 223 401 55
Futures INTL 1,733 1,285 749 316 220 398 50
INTL FCStone 1,715 1,287 759 306 223 380 48
Sid Love Consult 1,715 1,287 758 306 223 380 48
MaxYield 1,739
Northstar 1,746 1,284 758 306 220 410 52
Price Group 1,688 1,275 751 308 216 363 50
Prime-Ag 1,710
RJ O’Brien 1,734 1,292 763 302 228 392 49
Vantage RM 1,734 1,285 758 306 221 399 50
Western Milling 1,769 1,295 763 308 224 420 53
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,707 1,296 765 309 223 371 39
AVERAGE 1,725 1,287 758 306 223 389 50
USDA 2016 2,310 1,672 1,082 345 245 534 104
USDA August 1,739 1,287 758 306 223 402 51

DJ Survey: Sep. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates
New York–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for September 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Stockpiles on Sept. 1, 2017 (million bushels)
Average Range USDA June 2017 USDA Sept. 2016
Corn 2349 2,310-2,380 5225 1737
Soybeans 339 321-355 963 197
Wheat 2220 2,083-2,750 1184 2545
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 2,361 343 2,172
Allendale 2,370 333 2,154
DC Analysis 2,380 335 2,096
Doane 2,325 335 2,158
EDFMan Capital 2,350 345 2,298
Farm Futures 2,337 329 2,083
Futures INTL 2,374 341 2,153
Hueber Report 2,310 328 2,360
INTL FCStone 2,339 343 2,179
Sid Love Consulti 2,330 339 2,158
MaxYield 2,375 355 2,750
Northstar 2,335 325 2,155
Price Group 2,355 350 2,140
Prime-Ag 2,325 340 2,150
RJ O’Brien 2,362 321 2,169
US Commodities 2,338 338 2,101
Vantage RM 2,355 340 2,290
Western Milling 2,325 355 2,390
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,380 340 2,221
AVERAGE 2,349 339 2,220
USDA June 2017 5,225 963 1,184
USDA Sept. 2016 1,737 197 2,545

DJ USDA Hogs And Pigs: U.S. Inventory, By Class, Weight-Sep 28
Hogs and Pigs: Inventory Number by Class, Weight Group,
and Quarter, United States, 2016-2017
==============================================================================
2017
Item 2016 2017 as a %
2016
==============================================================================
———– 1,000 Head ———– Percent
March 1 Inventory 1/
All Hogs and Pigs 68,124 70,671 104
Kept for Breeding 5,980 6,068 101
Market 62,144 64,603 104
Market Hogs and Pigs
by Weight Groups
Under 50 Pounds 19,897 20,407 103
50-119 Pounds 17,198 17,862 104
120-179 Pounds 13,819 14,435 104
180 Pounds and Over 11,229 11,899 106
June 1 Inventory 1/
All Hogs and Pigs 69,281 71,430 103
Kept for Breeding 5,979 6,069 102
Market 63,302 65,361 103
Market Hogs and Pigs
by Weight Groups
Under 50 Pounds 20,356 21,017 103
50-119 Pounds 18,198 18,831 103
120-179 Pounds 13,291 13,646 103
180 Pounds and Over 11,456 11,867 104
September 1 Inventory 1/
All Hogs and Pigs 71,786 73,549 102
Kept for Breeding 6,016 6,087 101
Market 65,770 67,462 103
Market Hogs and Pigs
by Weight Groups
Under 50 Pounds 21,215 21,568 102
50-119 Pounds 19,271 19,626 102
120-179 Pounds 13,600 14,129 104
180 Pounds and Over 11,683 12,139 104
December 1 Inventory 1/
All Hogs and Pigs 71,525
Kept for Breeding 6,090
Market 65,435
Market Hogs and Pigs
by Weight Groups
Under 50 Pounds 20,887
50-119 Pounds 18,102
120-179 Pounds 13,786
180 Pounds and Over 12,660
==============================================================================

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 29
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct. 02, 2017 300 Aug 31, 2017
SOYBEAN OIL October Oct. 02, 2017 395 Sep 28, 2017

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed lower despite a relatively strong export sales report. It was not a big volume day and it seems that many traders were getting out of positions before the reports today and before the end of the month and quarter, also today. USDA is expected to show reduced harvested area and production for Spring Wheat in its small grains report. Ideas that demand can start to improve now as US prices are relatively cheap in the world market. US Wheat should be more attractive than many other origins into other markets due to price and currency relationships. World and US conditions are still far from perfect, and US planting of the next Winter Wheat crop has been slow to get started due to some dry conditions in parts of the Great Plains. It is also still dry in Australia and in parts of eastern Europe, and Argentina has been too wet. The current rains in Argentina are damaging the Wheat crop as it was getting mature and ready for harvest. On the other hand, Russian analysts now think that the next crop there is off to a good start and that a new record production is possible. Chart patterns still show the chance for higher prices.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers today and tomorrow, then drier either into early next week. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should get mostly dry weather, then light showers starting Sunday. Temperatures should be near to above normal late this week and cooler this weekend. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather today and tomorrow, then some rains and snows. Temperatures will trends to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 463 and 483 December. Support is at 449, 444, and 442 December, with resistance at 465, 468, and 474 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 462 and 496 December. Support is at 447, 444, and 441 December, with resistance at 460, 465, and 470 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 640, 627, and 624 December, and resistance is at 653, 658, and 668 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday on follow through buying after finding buying interest just above the spike low seen a few days ago. The price action yesterday could be an indication that the current route is running its course and that a market recovery is possible in te coming week. The export sales report showed improved sales, with Japan and Mexico the best buyers. The harvest advances even with ideas of decent yields and good quality. Field yields in the entire Rice Belt have been variable to good, and quality is generally called good. Arkansas and Missouri are increasingly active under what seems to be good conditions.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers off and on all week. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1180, 1170, and 1167 November, with resistance at 1206, 1223, and 1231 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower as the harvest weather remains good, and added to losses in response to a poor export sales report. Ideas that the US harvest is set to expand soon and some forecasts for rains in Brazil through the weekend are keeping bullish traders on the sidelines. Oats were a little higher in range trading as this market waits for the production data from the small grains report today. Temperatures are turning cooler now in the Midwest and are now closer to normals for the date. Temperatures will stay cool through the weekend, and then will turn warmer next week. Harvest progress should expand this week, but producers seem to be more interested in harvesting Soybeans right now instead of Corn. USDA will release its quarterly stocks reports this morning, but no surprises are expected. Brazil has been dry and some initial Soybeans planting has been delayed. This might delay or prevent some planting of the Winter crop in Brazil in some areas. The rains being forecast would allow Soybeans to get planted and increase the chances for a bigger Winter Corn crop this year. Trends are sideways for Corn.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 349, 346, and 344 December, and resistance is at 357, 360, and 363 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 244, 242, and 238 September, and resistance is at 252, 260, and 263 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower on forecasts for improved rains in Brazil and ideas of big harvest progress here. The selling was seen despite a very strong export sales report that might have featured record export sales for a week in the history of USDA record keeping for Soybeans. Soybean Oil was lower also as the EPA started to move to lower the blending mandates for bio fuels. Producers are looking to harvest the Soybeans before the Corn. Yields have been variable, but very good in general. Forecasts for some beneficial rains in Brazil by the end of this weekend continue to be heard, but for now only light precipitation and spotty coverage has been reported. It is planting time for Soybeans there, but many producers have not yet started as it has been too dry. The Soybeans harvest has started in a few sections of central and southern Illinois and Indiana, and yields so far do not really support the high USDA yield estimates. Most estimates appear to be below those of last year. It is still very early and many more reports will be heard and will affect the price action over the next few weeks. USDA will issue its quarterly stocks estimates today, and today will also be the last day of the month and quarter, so many have been liquidating positions.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 958, 956, and 950 November, and resistance is at 971, 978, and 988 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 310.00, 308.00, and 304.00 December, and resistance is at 314.00, 316.00, and 317.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 3250, 3220, and 3190 December, with resistance at 3330, 3360, and 3410 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on reports of very active farm selling and weakness in Chicago and Malaysia. The currency moves came as the Bank of Canada said there was no timetable to raise interest rates.. The market has been holding due to reduced production there. The harvest is active in most areas, and yield reports for now indicate better than expected production. Harvest progress should come to a halt in Alberta due to bad weather this weekend. Producers should enjoy some dry weather this week to allow for more active harvest progress. Palm Oil was lower today on weakness in the outside markets, especially Soybean Oil. Charts show that their move lower can be extended next week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 487.00, 483.00, and 480.00 November, with resistance at 495.00, 498.00, and 505.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2650, 2620, and 2590 December, with resistance at 2750, 2770, and 28600 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry, with any precipitation confined to northern areas. Temperatures will average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September 40 Dec 170 Dec 40 Dec 46 Nov 4-Oct
October 40 Dec 45 Dec 41 Nov
November 38 Dec 50 Dec 42 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
September
October minus 14 Dec 45 Dec
November minus 17 Dec 50 Dec
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 28
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder
Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 472.70 up 0.70
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 500.80 dn 1.90
2 Can 487.80 dn 1.90
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 515.80 dn 1.90
2 Can 502.80 dn 1.90
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 210.00 unchanged
Can Feed n/a
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 210.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – September 29
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 672.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 670.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 670.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 665.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 677.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 675.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 675.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 670.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 680.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 635.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 2,730 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 335.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2215)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 29
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 99,906 lots, or 3.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 3,625 3,780 3,625 3,745 3,764 3,718 -46 28 90
Jan-18 3,827 3,841 3,819 3,821 3,832 3,828 -4 95,326 226,674
Mar-18 – – – 3,825 3,833 3,825 -8 0 24
May-18 3,840 3,856 3,836 3,842 3,848 3,845 -3 4,524 16,346
Jul-18 – – – 3,920 3,920 3,920 0 0 6
Sep-18 3,880 3,890 3,874 3,878 3,886 3,882 -4 22 590
Nov-18 – – – 3,893 3,893 3,893 0 0 2
Jan-19 3,912 3,926 3,912 3,926 3,891 3,920 29 6 104
Mar-19 – – – 3,941 3,941 3,941 0 0 0
Corn
Turnover: 405,816 lots, or 6.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 1,642 1,653 1,642 1,650 1,655 1,651 -4 70 938
Jan-18 1,696 1,698 1,687 1,693 1,702 1,692 -10 353,320 873,756
Mar-18 1,690 1,699 1,689 1,699 1,695 1,694 -1 90 1,196
May-18 1,733 1,742 1,732 1,735 1,741 1,736 -5 50,328 280,338
Jul-18 – – – 1,754 1,756 1,754 -2 0 320
Sep-18 1,755 1,761 1,754 1,756 1,759 1,756 -3 2,008 16,096
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,381,180 lots, or 37.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 2,813 2,826 2,788 2,789 2,797 2,800 3 32 242
Dec-17 2,760 2,760 2,756 2,756 2,785 2,757 -28 16 384
Jan-18 2,763 2,780 2,723 2,729 2,771 2,751 -20 1,177,762 1,642,354
Mar-18 2,743 2,770 2,743 2,743 2,781 2,748 -33 10 278
May-18 2,712 2,728 2,682 2,685 2,719 2,702 -17 196,902 672,782
Jul-18 2,753 2,753 2,729 2,729 2,758 2,732 -26 54 220
Aug-18 2,731 2,745 2,730 2,730 2,747 2,733 -14 12 174
Sep-18 2,739 2,752 2,711 2,712 2,744 2,728 -16 6,392 34,104
Palm Oil
Turnover: 390,518 lots, or 21.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-17 – – – 5,600 5,600 5,600 0 0 0
Nov-17 – – – 5,698 5,698 5,698 0 0 4
Dec-17 – – – 5,600 5,600 5,600 0 0 2
Jan-18 5,500 5,542 5,476 5,524 5,520 5,512 -8 356,540 398,540
Feb-18 – – – 5,578 5,578 5,578 0 0 4
Mar-18 – – – 5,528 5,536 5,528 -8 0 2
Apr-18 – – – 5,584 5,584 5,584 0 0 10
May-18 5,484 5,530 5,474 5,514 5,506 5,502 -4 33,590 102,030
Jun-18 – – – 5,528 5,528 5,528 0 0 6
Jul-18 5,496 5,612 5,496 5,612 5,572 5,554 -18 4 4
Aug-18 – – – 5,594 5,594 5,594 0 0 2
Sep-18 5,452 5,460 5,424 5,448 5,448 5,444 -4 384 2,742
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 320,966 lots, or 19.54 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 6,448 6,448 6,448 0 0 28
Dec-17 – – – 6,008 6,008 6,008 0 0 12
Jan-18 6,072 6,112 6,058 6,088 6,084 6,074 -10 289,670 674,548
Mar-18 6,072 6,138 6,016 6,138 6,148 6,072 -76 364 4
May-18 6,198 6,234 6,174 6,204 6,202 6,192 -10 30,428 113,686
Jul-18 – – – 6,382 6,392 6,382 -10 0 4
Aug-18 – – – 6,396 6,406 6,396 -10 0 6
Sep-18 6,308 6,320 6,252 6,276 6,288 6,274 -14 504 1,166
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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