Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ September U.S. Wheat Production Estimates — Survey
New York–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2017 U.S. wheat production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated production forecasts at noon on Friday.
2017 Wheat Production
USDA
Average Range August 2016
All Wheat 1,725 1,679-1,769 1,739 2,310
Winter Wheat 1,287 1,275-1,296 1,287 1,672
Hard Red Winter 758 749-765 758 1,082
Soft Red Winter 306 301-316 306 345
White Winter 223 216-228 223 245
Other Spring 389 343-420 402 534
Durum 50 39-55 51 104
All Winter Other
Wheat Hard-Red Soft-Red White Spring Durum
Advanced Market 1,720 1,282 761 301 220 391 47
Allendale 1,735 1,287 758 306 223 394 54
DC Analysis 1,679 1,287 756 305 226 343 49
Doane 1,729 1,287 758 306 223 391 50
EDFMan Capital 1,730 1,285 755 305 225 395 50
Farm Futures 1,743 1,287 758 306 223 401 55
Futures INTL 1,733 1,285 749 316 220 398 50
INTL FCStone 1,715 1,287 759 306 223 380 48
Sid Love Consult 1,715 1,287 758 306 223 380 48
MaxYield 1,739
Northstar 1,746 1,284 758 306 220 410 52
Price Group 1,688 1,275 751 308 216 363 50
Prime-Ag 1,710
RJ O’Brien 1,734 1,292 763 302 228 392 49
Vantage RM 1,734 1,285 758 306 221 399 50
Western Milling 1,769 1,295 763 308 224 420 53
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,707 1,296 765 309 223 371 39
AVERAGE 1,725 1,287 758 306 223 389 50
USDA 2016 2,310 1,672 1,082 345 245 534 104
USDA August 1,739 1,287 758 306 223 402 51

DJ Survey: Sep. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates
New York–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for September 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. Stockpiles on Sept. 1, 2017 (million bushels)
Average Range USDA June 2017 USDA Sept. 2016
Corn 2349 2,310-2,380 5225 1737
Soybeans 339 321-355 963 197
Wheat 2220 2,083-2,750 1184 2545
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced Market 2,361 343 2,172
Allendale 2,370 333 2,154
DC Analysis 2,380 335 2,096
Doane 2,325 335 2,158
EDFMan Capital 2,350 345 2,298
Farm Futures 2,337 329 2,083
Futures INTL 2,374 341 2,153
Hueber Report 2,310 328 2,360
INTL FCStone 2,339 343 2,179
Sid Love Consulti 2,330 339 2,158
MaxYield 2,375 355 2,750
Northstar 2,335 325 2,155
Price Group 2,355 350 2,140
Prime-Ag 2,325 340 2,150
RJ O’Brien 2,362 321 2,169
US Commodities 2,338 338 2,101
Vantage RM 2,355 340 2,290
Western Milling 2,325 355 2,390
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,380 340 2,221
AVERAGE 2,349 339 2,220
USDA June 2017 5,225 963 1,184
USDA Sept. 2016 1,737 197 2,545

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Sep 28
For the week ended Sep 21 in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 435.6 0.0 13518.5 14040.5 4855.5 30.0
hrw 173.5 0.0 5065.0 5988.9 1450.6 0.0
srw 42.3 0.0 1331.8 1225.1 543.2 30.0
hrs 119.2 0.0 3651.0 4264.8 1383.0 0.0
white 99.8 0.0 3219.0 2360.3 1376.9 0.0
durum 0.8 0.0 251.6 201.4 101.8 0.0
corn 320.2 0.0 11350.1 18542.9 9204.4 207.8
soybeans 2982.7 120.0 22314.6 26113.4 19232.9 121.0
soymeal -86.7 301.8 10428.9 10733.0 529.4 2621.0
soyoil 5.5 10.0 1139.2 1183.1 50.2 37.1
upland cotton 194.2 8.5 7233.4 4998.6 5960.5 725.4
pima cotton 15.6 0.0 291.4 319.8 260.5 19.7
sorghum 62.0 0.0 1199.5 991.5 914.0 0.0
barley 0.7 0.0 36.9 13.3 27.3 0.0
rice 43.6 0.0 703.7 911.7 339.1 0.0

DJ International Grains Council Raises 2017-18 Production Forecast
By David Hodari
LONDON–The International Grains Council on Thursday said that it has raised its global grain production forecast to 2,069 million metric tons due to better-than-expected harvests in the U.S., Argentina and Black Sea region.
The raised 2017-18 forecast constitutes a 19 million-ton month-on-month increase, but a drop from the previous season’s record, the IGC said, citing smaller planting areas and poorer average yields.
Last month’s forecast was 2,049 million tons. The revised figure means that global grain output for 2017-18 is expected to fall by 79 million tons, or 3.94%, year on year.
The IGC inched its monthly output forecast for 2016-17 up to 2,133 million tons in September, from 2,128 million tons at the end of August. This represents a 6.1% increase on the 2015-16 season.
Wheat and maize production forecasts for 2017-18 rose by 6 million tons and 12 million tons respectively in the latest report.
The IGC downgraded its rice production forecast to 483 million tons from 485 million, but upped its soybean forecast to 348 million tons from 347 million. The body estimates wheat production to come in at 748 million tons compared with its earlier estimate of 742 million.
Higher-than-expected U.S. soybean production contributed to the slight increase on 2017-18 forecasts, the IGC said.
Growing consumption in the U.S. and China means that next year could be the first in five to see a global grain contraction, the IGC said. The August report included a 4 million-ton increase in expected global wheat consumption for 2017-18. Similarly, the IGC increased its maize-consumption forecast for 2017-18 by 3 million tons to 1,058 million tons.
Wheat was last down 0.43% at $4.60 a bushel, corn was down 0.42% at $3.53 a bushel and soybeans were last down 0.65% at $9.59 a bushel.

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed higher and the Winter Wheat markets were the strongest on the day. It was not a big volume day and it seems that many traders were getting out of positions before the reports on Friday and before the end of the month and quarter, also on Friday. Minneapolis was higher as USDA is expected to show reduced harvested area and production for Spring Wheat in its small grains report on Friday. Ideas that demand can start to improve now as US prices are relatively cheap in the world market. US Wheat should be more attractive than many other origins into other markets due to price and currency relationships. World and US conditions are still far from perfect, and US planting of the next Winter Wheat crop has been slow to get started due to some dry conditions in parts of the Great Plains. It is also still dry in Australia and in parts of eastern Europe, and Argentina has been too wet. The current rains in Argentina are damaging the Wheat crop as it was getting mature and ready for harvest. On the other hand, Russian analysts now think that the next crop there is off to a good start and that a new record production is possible. Chart patterns still show the chance for higher prices.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get a lot of rain and showers. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should get mostly dry weather, then light showers starting Sunday. Temperatures should be near to above normal late this week and cooler this weekend. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures will trends to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 463 and 483 December. Support is at 449, 444, and 442 December, with resistance at 465, 468, and 474 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 462 and 496 December. Support is at 447, 444, and 441 December, with resistance at 465, 470, and 475 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 640, 627, and 624 December, and resistance is at 653, 658, and 668 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday, but found buying interest just above the spike low seen a few days ago. The price action yesterday could be an indication that the current route is running its course. Traders are looking ahead to the export sales report this morning and the end of the month and the end of the quarter on Friday. Chart trends turned down with the price action on Friday, and the down trend got overextended on Monday. The harvest advances even with ideas of decent yields and good quality. Field yields in the entire Rice Belt have been variable to good, and quality is generally called good. Arkansas and Missouri are increasingly active under what seems to be good conditions.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers off and on all week. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with no objectives. Support is at 1180, 1170, and 1167 November, with resistance at 1206, 1223, and 1231 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher along with the rallies in Wheat and Soybeans. Ideas that the US harvest is set to expand soon and some forecasts for rains in Brazil by the end of the week kept some selling interest alive on the rally. Oats were a little lower after making some new lows for the move. temperatures are turning cooler now in the Midwest and are now closer to normals for the date. Temperatures will stay cool through the weekend, and then will turn warmer next week. Harvest progress should expand this week, but producers seem to be more interested in harvesting Soybeans right now instead of Corn. USDA will release its quarterly stocks reports on Friday, but no surprises are expected. Brazil has been dry and some initial Soybeans planting has been delayed. This might delay or prevent some planting of the Winter crop in Brazil in some areas. The rains being forecast would allow Soybeans to get planted and increase the chances for a bigger Winter Corn crop this year. Trends are sideways for Corn.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 233,800 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 349, 346, and 344 December, and resistance is at 357, 360, and 363 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 244, 242, and 238 September, and resistance is at 252, 260, and 263 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher on some demand news and speculative buying and despite forecasts for improved rains in Brazil. Soybean Oil was lower as the EPA started to move to lower the blending mandates for bio fuels. EPA says that it needs to reduce the mandate now that no soybean Oil is being imported for biofuels. USDA showed good harvest progress in its reports on Monday as producers are looking to harvest the Soybeans before the Corn. Forecasts for some beneficial rains in Brazil by the end of this week continue to be Heard, but for now it remains hot and mostly dry. It is planting time for Soybeans there, but many producers have not yet started as it has been too dry. The Soybeans harvest has started in a few sections of central and southern Illinois and Indiana, and yields so far do not really support the high USDA yield estimates. Most estimates appear to be below those of last year. It is still very early and many more reports will be heard and will affect the price action over the next few weeks. USDA will issue its quarterly stocks estimates on Friday, and Friday will also be the last day of the month and quarter, so many are liquidating positions now.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 958, 956, and 950 November, and resistance is at 971, 978, and 988 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 306.00, 304.00, and 300.00 October, and resistance is at 310.00, 315.00, and 318.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives. Support is at 3280, 3260, and 3230 October, with resistance at 3350, 3360, and 3400 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on reports of very active farm selling, then rallied as the Canadian Dollar moved lower. The currency moves came as the Bank of Canada said there was no timetable to raise interest rates.. The market has been holding due to reduced production there. The harvest is active in most areas, and yield reports for now indicate better than expected production. Producers should enjoy some dry weather this week to allow for more active harvest progress. Palm Oil was lower today on weakness in the outside markets, especially Soybean Oil. Overall the trends are up in futures. There is a conference going on in India for vegetable oils and outlooks from analysts appear to be price neutral to bearish so far.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 487.00, 483.00, and 480.00 November, with resistance at 495.00, 498.00, and 505.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2710, 2650, and 2620 December, with resistance at 2800, 2840, and 2860 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures will average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September 30-Dec 170 Dec 40 Dec 40 Nov 4-Oct
October 32 Dec 45 Dec 40 Nov
November 37 Dec 50 Dec 42 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
September
October minus 17 Oct 45 Dec
November minus 17 Dec 53 Dec
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 27
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash grain prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder
Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 472.00 dn 3.30
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 502.70 up 0.70
2 Can 489.70 up 0.70
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 517.70 up 0.70
2 Can 504.70 up 0.70
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 210.00 unchanged
Can Feed n/a
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 210.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept. 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 675.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 667.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 667.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 670.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 680.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 672.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 672.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 675.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 682.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 635.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 2,740 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 335.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2295)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 28
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 142,164 lots, or 5.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 3,764 3,764 3,764 3,764 3,749 3,764 15 2 96
Jan-18 3,837 3,858 3,812 3,829 3,831 3,832 1 136,420 238,700
Mar-18 3,837 3,837 3,813 3,813 3,827 3,833 6 26 24
May-18 3,856 3,870 3,829 3,842 3,851 3,848 -3 5,436 15,944
Jul-18 3,920 3,920 3,920 3,920 3,891 3,920 29 2 6
Sep-18 3,891 3,905 3,876 3,876 3,888 3,886 -2 170 588
Nov-18 – – – 3,893 3,893 3,893 0 0 2
Jan-19 3,786 3,932 3,786 3,926 3,935 3,891 -44 108 102
Mar-19 – – – 3,941 3,941 3,941 0 0 0
Corn
Turnover: 870,572 lots, or 14.86 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 1,662 1,664 1,650 1,652 1,669 1,655 -14 40 990
Jan-18 1,715 1,715 1,692 1,694 1,716 1,702 -14 764,198 939,168
Mar-18 1,698 1,703 1,690 1,702 1,713 1,695 -18 142 1,192
May-18 1,750 1,750 1,734 1,735 1,751 1,741 -10 103,448 283,660
Jul-18 1,748 1,759 1,748 1,751 1,765 1,756 -9 78 320
Sep-18 1,765 1,765 1,755 1,758 1,766 1,759 -7 2,666 16,306
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,117,222 lots, or 30.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 2,820 2,855 2,751 2,826 2,821 2,797 -24 24 238
Dec-17 2,791 2,791 2,779 2,779 2,783 2,785 2 4 386
Jan-18 2,779 2,787 2,755 2,762 2,774 2,771 -3 931,008 1,843,230
Mar-18 2,782 2,782 2,781 2,781 2,777 2,781 4 12 278
May-18 2,726 2,732 2,709 2,712 2,723 2,719 -4 176,968 645,182
Jul-18 – – – 2,758 2,758 2,758 0 0 212
Aug-18 2,738 2,758 2,738 2,742 2,760 2,747 -13 32 176
Sep-18 2,752 2,755 2,733 2,739 2,748 2,744 -4 9,174 31,316
Palm Oil
Turnover: 831,146 lots, or 45.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-17 5,688 5,688 5,512 5,512 5,730 5,600 -130 4 0
Nov-17 – – – 5,698 5,830 5,698 -132 0 4
Dec-17 – – – 5,600 5,712 5,600 -112 0 2
Jan-18 5,640 5,642 5,450 5,494 5,640 5,520 -120 753,768 457,882
Feb-18 – – – 5,578 5,716 5,578 -138 0 4
Mar-18 – – – 5,536 5,656 5,536 -120 0 2
Apr-18 5,584 5,584 5,584 5,584 5,702 5,584 -118 2 10
May-18 5,604 5,610 5,446 5,486 5,600 5,506 -94 76,374 96,108
Jun-18 5,528 5,528 5,528 5,528 5,598 5,528 -70 4 6
Jul-18 5,572 5,572 5,572 5,572 5,672 5,572 -100 2 4
Aug-18 – – – 5,594 5,694 5,594 -100 0 2
Sep-18 5,522 5,526 5,396 5,428 5,544 5,448 -96 992 2,628
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 488,748 lots, or 29.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 6,448 6,448 6,448 0 0 28
Dec-17 5,968 6,048 5,968 6,048 6,170 6,008 -162 12 12
Jan-18 6,162 6,164 6,026 6,074 6,174 6,084 -90 444,316 705,546
Mar-18 – – – 6,148 6,234 6,148 -86 0 4
May-18 6,278 6,280 6,150 6,200 6,284 6,202 -82 44,162 108,624
Jul-18 – – – 6,392 6,392 6,392 0 0 4
Aug-18 – – – 6,406 6,406 6,406 0 0 6
Sep-18 6,366 6,366 6,250 6,288 6,366 6,288 -78 258 986
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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