Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ Analysts’ Estimates for September USDA Cattle-on-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by the Wall Street Journal for the nation’s feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed September 1 102.7 101.1- 104.0
Placed in August 97.3 88.3- 104.3
Marketed in August 105.8 104.3- 107.1
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Sep 1 in Aug in Aug
Allegiant Commodity Grp 102.1 94.2 105.9
Allendale Inc. 102.1 92.9 104.9
CoBank 102.6 98.7 106.1
HedgersEdge 102.4 94.4 107.1
Linn Group 104.0 104.3 105.8
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 103.2 99.5 105.7
NFC Markets 101.1 88.3 105.7
AgStrata LLC 103.8 102.2 104.3
Texas A&M Extension 103.4 101.0 106.1
U.S. Commodities 102.3 95.8 106.5

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Sep 21
For the week ended Sep 14 in thousand metric tons, except cotton in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales, less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total commitments are total export shipments plus total sales. The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and soyoil Oct 1.
Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 307.2 0.0 13083.0 13469.6 4845.7 30.0
hrw 58.1 0.0 4891.5 5658.7 1531.7 0.0
srw 31.0 0.0 1289.5 1219.2 552.2 30.0
hrs 122.7 0.0 3531.8 4206.2 1335.7 0.0
white 72.4 0.0 3119.2 2183.1 1304.2 0.0
durum 22.9 0.0 250.8 202.4 121.8 0.0
corn 526.9 0.0 11029.9 17967.9 9611.6 207.8
soybeans 2338.1 0.0 19332.0 24420.5 17235.6 1.0
soymeal 25.2 147.2 10515.5 10711.5 804.9 2319.2
soyoil 4.5 4.0 1133.6 1179.6 58.7 27.1
upland cotton 219.9 37.1 7039.2 4907.0 5898.2 716.8
pima cotton 58.5 19.7 275.8 298.2 250.9 19.7
sorghum 51.9 0.0 1137.5 764.1 1014.0 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 36.3 12.6 27.4 0.0
rice 33.6 0.0 660.1 864.8 361.6 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed higher in all three markets on ideas of improving demand and higher world market prices. The US Dollar remains weak, so US Wheat should be more attractive then many other origins and export demand could start to increase in the next few weeks. World and US conditions are still far from perfect, and US planting of the next Winter Wheat crop has been slow to get started. It is also still dry in Australia and in parts of eastern Europe, while Argentina has turned too wet. Australia could see some beneficial precipitation this week, but very limited coverage. The current rains in Argentina are damaging the Wheat crop as it was getting mature and ready for harvest. Chart patterns still show the chance for higher prices. Canada, Australia, and the EU are all likely to have smaller than normal crops and Europe will have less high quality Wheat from Germany and Poland to export. It remains too dry in Australia and there are no forecasts for rain in growing areas.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should get mostly some isolated showers much of the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal late this week and cooler this weekend. The Canadian Prairies should see some showers on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 436, 431, and 429 December, with resistance at 450, 455, and 465 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 435, 432, and 426 December, with resistance at 447, 450, and 452 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 620, 599, and 584 December. Support is at 615, 607, and 594 December, and resistance is at 626, 640, and 648 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher yesterday and chart trends in general remain up. Trading volumes overall are low The harvest is now past the halfway point, and the crop condition showed that there are still problems out there. Field yields in the entire Rice Belt have been variable to good, and quality is generally called good. Crops are now ready for harvest in areas from Mississippi to Missouri, although cool weather now could delay final maturity. Arkansas and Missouri is increasingly active under what seems to be good conditions. The weather in general has been much better for finishing the crop in good condition than it was for planting and initial development. Bullish traders hope for good demand news as US prices are still relatively cheap, although higher than a couple of months ago, and it is looking more and more like the US will have good quality Rice to sell and export this year.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers off and on all week. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1320 and 1355 November. Support is at 1269, 1264, and 1258 November, with resistance at 1290, 1294, and 1301 November.

DJ Philippines Rice Production Seen Lower, Imports May Rise — Market Talk
0228 GMT – Rice production in the Philippines is expected to fall in the current year with imports seen growing rapidly to meet the country’s needs, says the USDA in a note. It forecasts production in the year to July 31. 2018 will fall 4% to 17.8 million metric tons, while imports are expected to rise 80% over the same period. However, the USDA forecasts that production of both wheat and corn in the Philippines will pick up this year reducing the country’s reliance on imports for both.(lucy.craymer@wsj.com;Twitter: @lucy_craymer)

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little higher on ideas that the US harvest is set to expand soon and on some forecasts for rains in Brazil in the next week or two. Some rains were reported in western sections of the Corn Belt, and it is forecast to turn very warm in the Midwest this week to speed maturity along. USDA raised yields and production to the high end of trade expectations last week, and yield reports heard so far suggest that USDA is too high and will need to drop yield estimates next month. The harvest is starting now in some áreas, so reports should become available over the course of the week. Traders were keeping a close eye on the weather, but the cold and freezing weather is not coming yet. Brazil has been dry and some initial Soybeans planting has been delayed. This might delay or prevent some planting of the Winter crop in Brazil in some areas. The rains being forecast would allow Soybeans to get planted and increase the chances for a bigger Winter Corn crop this year. Producers continue to show very little interest in selling Corn Trends are up for Oats and sideways for Corn.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 341 December. Support is at 346, 344, and 340 December, and resistance is at 353, 357, and 360 December. Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 255 December. Support is at 242, 238, and 235 September, and resistance is at 250, 252, and 260 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher on reports of strong export demand from unknown destinations and China. Soybean Oil was a little higher. The trade heard forecasts for some beneficial rains in Brazil in the next couple of weeks. It is planting time for Soybeans there, but many producers have not yet started as it has been too dry. The Soybeans harvest has started in a few sections of central and southern Illinois and Indiana, and yields so far do not really support the high USDA yield estimates. Most estimates appear to be below those of last year. It is still very early in the game, and many more reports will be heard and will affect the price action over the next few weeks. The weather this week will feature warmer temperatures. No soaking rains are expected, but there will be some rain for most areas.
Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 959, 956, and 950 November, and resistance is at 980, 984, and 988 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 304.00, 301.00, and 300.00 October, and resistance is at 310.00, 312.00, and 314.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 3400 October. Support is at 3420, 3400, and 3360 October, with resistance at 3480, 3520, and 3550 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little higher on ideas of harvest delays. Harvest conditions are bad in a big part of the Prairies as it has been cold and wet. The harvest is active in drier areas, and yield reports for now indicate better than expected production. Some selling was reported last week, but overall supplies in the market remain tight. Both producers and buyers have been quiet until now and speculators are trading both side of the market. Palm Oil was mostly a little higher today in response to the positive demand news from the private sources. Overall the trends are up in futures. There is a conference going on in India for vegetable oils and outlooks from analysts appear to be price neutral to bearish so far.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 878,422 tons, from 692,662 tons last month. ITS said that exports are now 852,206 tons, from 679,539 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 487.00, 483.00, and 480.00 November, with resistance at 495.00, 497.00, and 503.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 2730, 2710, and 2650 December, with resistance at 2840, 2860, and 2880 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry, but showers in the northwest on Thursday. Temperatures will average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September 18-Dec 175 Dec 45 Dec 46 Nov Oct Price
October 26-Dec 50 Dec 37 Nov
November 35 Dec 50 Dec 44 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua
September
October minus 16 Oct 54 Dec
November minus 16 Dec 57 Dec
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 20
Winnipeg–The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 472.10 up 2.20
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 502.90 up 0.80
2 Can 489.90 up 0.80
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 517.90 up 0.80
2 Can 504.90 up 0.80
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 190.00 unchanged
Can Feed N/A
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 197.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 21
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 692.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct 692.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 690.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 682.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Sep 697.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Oct 697.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 695.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 687.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 695.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 642.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 2,765 -45.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 339.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1970)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 21
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 101,140 lots, or 3.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 3,788 3,788 3,688 3,704 3,747 3,733 -14 74 96
Jan-18 3,808 3,811 3,778 3,790 3,790 3,795 5 96,056 281,734
Mar-18 3,793 3,793 3,793 3,793 3,792 3,793 1 2 26
May-18 3,830 3,835 3,806 3,814 3,820 3,821 1 4,814 17,114
Jul-18 – – – 3,893 3,894 3,893 -1 0 6
Sep-18 3,878 3,881 3,854 3,860 3,870 3,874 4 188 654
Nov-18 – – – 3,879 3,879 3,879 0 0 2
Jan-19 3,927 3,927 3,908 3,908 3,901 3,917 16 6 122
Mar-19 – – – 3,941 3,957 3,941 -16 0 0
Corn
Turnover: 609,634 lots, or 10.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 1,658 1,670 1,658 1,670 1,667 1,664 -3 40 970
Jan-18 1,696 1,711 1,695 1,709 1,702 1,702 0 543,116 1,056,178
Mar-18 1,704 1,704 1,703 1,703 1,704 1,703 -1 12 1,196
May-18 1,739 1,745 1,735 1,743 1,742 1,739 -3 65,516 262,972
Jul-18 1,750 1,750 1,750 1,750 1,757 1,750 -7 2 264
Sep-18 1,764 1,768 1,761 1,766 1,766 1,763 -3 948 9,430
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,084,438 lots, or 29.64 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 2,774 2,774 2,774 0 0 244
Dec-17 2,752 2,766 2,741 2,760 2,752 2,752 0 44 438
Jan-18 2,732 2,748 2,730 2,741 2,726 2,739 13 915,492 1,883,094
Mar-18 2,742 2,751 2,740 2,751 2,726 2,742 16 16 316
May-18 2,690 2,701 2,688 2,695 2,685 2,695 10 158,802 741,934
Jul-18 – – – 2,718 2,718 2,718 0 0 240
Aug-18 2,739 2,739 2,726 2,726 2,716 2,730 14 6 240
Sep-18 2,710 2,727 2,710 2,721 2,713 2,722 9 10,078 22,110
Palm Oil
Turnover: 659,942 lots, or 37.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-17 – – – 5,730 5,730 5,730 0 0 0
Nov-17 – – – 5,830 5,830 5,830 0 0 4
Dec-17 – – – 5,800 5,800 5,800 0 0 2
Jan-18 5,726 5,750 5,662 5,666 5,722 5,704 -18 591,308 537,214
Feb-18 – – – 5,780 5,780 5,780 0 0 4
Mar-18 – – – 5,656 5,672 5,656 -16 0 2
Apr-18 5,702 5,702 5,702 5,702 5,784 5,702 -82 2 10
May-18 5,676 5,724 5,646 5,650 5,676 5,692 16 67,668 92,462
Jun-18 – – – 5,760 5,760 5,760 0 0 12
Jul-18 – – – 5,726 5,726 5,726 0 0 6
Aug-18 – – – 5,798 5,798 5,798 0 0 2
Sep-18 5,652 5,678 5,602 5,602 5,642 5,648 6 964 1,576
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 413,336 lots, or 26.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 6,448 6,448 6,448 0 0 28
Dec-17 – – – 6,350 6,350 6,350 0 0 12
Jan-18 6,332 6,350 6,276 6,276 6,324 6,316 -8 388,122 694,452
Mar-18 – – – 6,304 6,304 6,304 0 0 6
May-18 6,416 6,440 6,374 6,376 6,414 6,408 -6 25,000 115,970
Jul-18 – – – 6,512 6,512 6,512 0 0 4
Aug-18 – – – 6,450 6,450 6,450 0 0 6
Sep-18 6,508 6,508 6,454 6,454 6,498 6,482 -16 214 658
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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