Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Sep 18
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING SEP 14, 2017
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 09/14/2017 09/07/2017 09/15/2016 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 0 998 14,122 21,763
CORN 676,819 676,243 1,296,515 1,353,062 2,931,453
FLAXSEED 0 48 170 3,623 2,901
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 499 800 2,495 4,199
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 66,399 51,382 159,372 117,781 225,539
SOYBEANS 928,575 1,106,758 761,146 2,035,333 1,913,434
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 464,375 508,855 574,205 8,723,280 8,577,542
Total 2,136,168 2,343,785 2,793,206 12,249,696 13,676,831
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

DJ Statistics Canada Crop Production Report – Sep 19
Winnipeg–Canada 2017/18 grain/oilseed September model-
based production estimates. Includes August survey-based
estimates and year-ago production for comparison. Source:
Statistics Canada. Production in thousand metric tons, yield in
kg/hectare, area harvested in thousand hectares.
Production
Harvested indic model survey
area yield 2017/18 2017/18 2016/17
barley 2,120.5 3,400 7,305.5 7,211.5 8,783.6
canaryseed 101.1 1,150 116.3 117.0 140.3
canola 9,236.5 2,100 19,707.9 18,202.8 19,600.5
corn 1,417.2 10,100 14,312.6 13,645.0 13,193.1
flaxseed 412.4 1,200 501.2 507.3 588.0
lentils 1,755.9 1,390 2,438.6 2,290.6 3,248.2
mixed grains 56.2 2,800 155.5 155.9 164.5
mustard 151.7 760 114.9 129.5 235.6
oats 1,074.7 3,600 3,802.2 3,684.9 3,194.6
dry peas 1,639.7 2,400 3,861.6 3,792.9 4,835.9
fall rye* 102.3 3,300 333.6 326.0 415.0
soybeans 2,932.0 2,800 8,321.1 7,742.7 6,462.7
durum wheat 2,061.9 2,100 4,299.3 3,897.5 7,761.8
spring wheat 6,327.1 3,200 20,075.9 18,888.9 20,453.8
winter wheat* 554.5 5,000 2,754.6 2,754.4 3,513.0
*Fall rye and winter wheat numbers represent what was remaining
after winterkill.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

Crop Progress
Date 17-Sep 10-Sep 2016 Avg
Cotton Bolls Opening 44 34 47 51
Cotton Harvested 11 9 6 6
Carn Dent 86 75 92 90
Corn Mature 34 21 50 47
Corn Harvested 7 5 8 11
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 41 22 43 43
Soybeans Harvested 4 4 5
Sorghum Coloring 84 74 87 83
Sorghum Mature 43 35 50 46
Sorghum Harvested 29 24 29 29
Rice Harvested 55 43 62 51
Oats Harvested 96 91 100 97
Sugarbeets Harvested 10 6 11 9
Peanuts Harvested 6 3 6 7
Winter Wheat Planted 13 5 15 15

Crop Condition
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Very Good
Cotton This Week 6 8 25 44 17
Cotton Last Week 6 74 26 46 17
Cotton Last Year 4 4 12 3639 9
Corn This Week 4 9 26 48 13
Corn Last Week 4 9 26 48 13
Corn Last Year 2 5 19 54 20
Soybeans This Week 3 9 29 48 11
Soybeans Last Week 3 9 28 49 11
Soybeans Last Year 2 5 20 54 19
Sorghum This Week 2 6 27 53 12
Sorghum Last Week 2 5 27 56 11
Sorghum Last Year 1 5 28 52 14
Rice This Week 1 6 24 52 17
Rice Last Week 1 6 22 53 18
Rice Last Year 7 10 28 45 10
Peanuts This Week 0 5 19 59 17
Peanuts Last Week 1 5 17 56 21
Peanuts Last Year 2 7 29 49 13
Pasture and Range This Week 9 15 31 38 7
Pasture and Range Last week 8 14 31 39 8
Pasture and Range Last Year 6 12 31 42 9

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets closed lower in all three markets as demand has not been real strong and on ideas that Russia will continue to dominate the world market. World and US conditions are still far from perfect, and US planting of the next Winter Wheat crop has been slow to get started. It is also still dry in Australia, while Argentina has turned too wet. Australia could see some beneficial precipitation this week, but very limited coverage. The current rains in Argentina are damaging the Wheat crop as it was getting mature and ready for harvest. Chart patterns still show the chance for higher prices. Canada, Australia, and the EU are all likely to have smaller than normal crops and Europe will have less high quality Wheat from Germany and Poland to export. It remains too dry in Australia and there are no forecasts for rain in growing areas. US Wheat is cheap again, so demand could start to improve again in the export market for the US. If so, the need for high protein Wheat in world markets would imply that the best export demand will be for HRW and HRS. Either way, smaller crops in other important exporting countries should help keep US export demand stronger and help hold the market at current levels.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should get mostly some isolated showers much of the week. Temperatures should be near to above normal late this week and cooler this weekend. The Canadian Prairies should see some showers tomorrow and on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will average below normal today, then above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 461, 463, and 483 December. Support is at 440, 436, and 431 December, with resistance at 450, 455, and 465 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 436, 432, and 426 December, with resistance at 450, 452, and 454 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 620, 599, and 584 December. Support is at 616, 607, and 594 December, and resistance is at 640, 648, and 653 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday and chart trends in general remain up. The USDA reports from Tuesday still provide a bullish backdrop for the market as the harvest moves past the halfway point, and the crop condition showed that there are still problems out there as the harvest moves past the halfway point. Field yields in the entire Rice Belt have been varianle to good, and quality is generally called good. Crops are now ready for harvest in areas from Mississippi to Missouri, although cool weather now could delay final maturity. Arkansas and Missouri is increasingly active under what seems to be good conditions. The weather in general has been much better for finishing the crop in good condition than it was for planting and initial development.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers off and on all week. Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1320 and 1355 November. Support is at 1272, 1264, and 1258 November, with resistance at 1294, 1301, and 1304 November.

DJ Thai Rice-Export Prices Bolstered by Strong Demand — Market Talk
0203 GMT – Thailand fragrant-rice export prices are some 50% higher than a year ago, topping $1,000/metric ton, with the USDA citing demand from Africa and the Middle East. It notes exporters last week were actively fulfilling pending shipments to African countries using mostly old-crop white rice from Thailand’s supplies and that new tenders for the remaining 600,000 metric tons haven’t been finalized “due to the government’s ongoing investigation on non-food-quality rice being resold in the food chain.” (lucy.craymer@wsj.com; @lucy_craymer)

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was a little lower as the trade looks for better production conditions this week. Some rains were reported in western sections of the Corn Belt, and it is forecast to turn very warm in the Midwest this week to speed maturity along.. USDA raised yields and production to the high end of trade expectations last week, and yield reports Heard so far suggest that USDA is too high and will need to drop yield estimates next month. The harvest is starting now in some areas, so reports should become available over the course of the week. Traders were keeping a close eye on the weather, but the cold and freezing weather is not coming yet. Producers continue to show very little interest in selling Corn Trends are sideways for Oats and for Corn.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 350, 346, and 344 December, and resistance is at 357, 360, and 363 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 235, 233, and 230 September, and resistance is at 244, 247, and 250 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower yesterday after Soybeans traded higher for much of the day. Chart trends turned up in these markets with the price action last week, but the markets could not hold rallies yesterday on ideas that the harvest is about to become more active. USDA showed higher than expected yields and production in its reports last week, so traders are looking for yield reports to see if USDA has it right. The Soybeans harvest has started in a few sections of central and southern Illinois and Indiana, and yields so far do not really support the USDA estimates. Most estimates appear to be below those of last year. It is still very early in the game, and many more reports will be Heard and will affect the Price action over the next few weeks. The weather this week will feature warmer temperatures. No soaking rains are expected, but there will be some rain for most áreas.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 979, 1003, and 1043 November November. Support is at 966, 963, and 956 November, and resistance is at 980, 984, and 988 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are up with objectives opf 313.00, 315.00, and 329.00 October. Support is at 305.00, 301.00, and 300.00 October, and resistance is at 312.00, 314.00, and 315.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3420, 3400, and 3360 October, with resistance at 3480, 3520, and 3550 October.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower o reports of increased farm selling. The market is still acting weak, and the price action in Chicago along with good harvest progress kept selling alive yesterday. Light farmer selling from the start of the harvest remains a feature. The harvest is active, and yield reports for now indicate better than expected production. Some selling was reported last week, but overall supplies in the market remain tight. Both producers and buyers have been quiet until now and speculators are trading both side of the market. Palm Oil was lower again, this time on vegetable oils weakness in Chicago and China. Overall the trends are up in futures. There is a conference going on in India for vegetable oils and outlooks from analysts appear to be price neutral to bearish so far.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 487.00, 483.00, and 480.00 November, with resistance at 491.00, 495.00, and 497.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 2800, 2720, and 2650 December, with resistance at 2850, 2880, and 2910 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry, but showers in the northwest on Thursday. Temperatures will average above normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
September 15-Dec 160 Dec 45 Dec 45 Nov Oct Price
October 24-Dec 50 Dec 38 Nov
November 35 Dec 55 Dec 44 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua
September
October minus 17 Oct 55 Dec
November minus 16 Dec 58 Dec
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Sep 18
Winnipeg–The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 463.10 up 0.50
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 499.90 up 0.80
2 Can 486.90 up 0.80
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 514.90 up 0.80
2 Can 501.90 up 0.80
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 190.00 unchanged
Can Feed N/A
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 197.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 705.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 710.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 700.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 687.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Sep 710.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct 715.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 705.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 692.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 702.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 642.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 2,820 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 340.00 -28.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1915)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 97,422 lots, or 3.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 3,756 3,779 3,749 3,750 3,710 3,758 48 14 84
Jan-18 3,807 3,825 3,801 3,810 3,814 3,813 -1 94,122 275,602
Mar-18 3,798 3,827 3,798 3,827 3,819 3,817 -2 6 26
May-18 3,843 3,857 3,835 3,843 3,841 3,848 7 3,220 14,840
Jul-18 – – – 3,911 3,911 3,911 0 0 6
Sep-18 3,885 3,905 3,885 3,893 3,892 3,895 3 44 522
Nov-18 – – – 3,934 3,934 3,934 0 0 2
Jan-19 3,949 3,964 3,949 3,964 3,945 3,960 15 16 96
Mar-19 – – – 4,029 4,029 4,029 0 0 0
Corn
Turnover: 401,446 lots, or 6.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 1,646 1,659 1,646 1,656 1,654 1,655 1 106 1,164
Jan-18 1,690 1,702 1,689 1,696 1,693 1,697 4 345,334 1,062,070
Mar-18 1,703 1,703 1,703 1,703 1,697 1,703 6 4 1,206
May-18 1,736 1,745 1,722 1,738 1,737 1,739 2 53,606 263,448
Jul-18 1,758 1,758 1,755 1,755 1,755 1,755 0 20 268
Sep-18 1,767 1,773 1,764 1,765 1,772 1,766 -6 2,376 7,136
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,523,552 lots, or 41.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 2,773 2,775 2,773 2,775 2,763 2,774 11 14 238
Dec-17 2,764 2,792 2,764 2,772 2,755 2,773 18 8 438
Jan-18 2,735 2,759 2,730 2,730 2,730 2,741 11 1,284,218 1,877,552
Mar-18 2,738 2,752 2,734 2,735 2,734 2,741 7 28 312
May-18 2,688 2,712 2,684 2,684 2,681 2,695 14 231,592 726,230
Jul-18 2,720 2,727 2,710 2,710 2,720 2,724 4 22 234
Aug-18 2,743 2,743 2,720 2,727 2,721 2,723 2 40 238
Sep-18 2,720 2,745 2,716 2,717 2,715 2,727 12 7,630 18,892
Palm Oil
Turnover: 491,468 lots, or 28.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-17 – – – 5,730 5,730 5,730 0 0 0
Nov-17 – – – 5,830 5,830 5,830 0 0 4
Dec-17 – – – 5,800 5,800 5,800 0 0 2
Jan-18 5,708 5,804 5,692 5,760 5,740 5,752 12 467,298 560,560
Feb-18 – – – 5,822 5,822 5,822 0 0 4
Mar-18 – – – 5,712 5,702 5,712 10 0 2
Apr-18 – – – 5,784 5,784 5,784 0 0 12
May-18 5,644 5,728 5,644 5,696 5,676 5,690 14 23,824 87,398
Jun-18 – – – 5,760 5,760 5,760 0 0 12
Jul-18 – – – 5,726 5,712 5,726 14 0 6
Aug-18 – – – 5,798 5,784 5,798 14 0 2
Sep-18 5,600 5,670 5,600 5,666 5,624 5,650 26 346 840
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 367,076 lots, or 23.31 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-17 – – – 6,448 6,448 6,448 0 0 28
Dec-17 – – – 6,350 6,350 6,350 0 0 12
Jan-18 6,324 6,378 6,316 6,332 6,358 6,342 -16 341,018 692,432
Mar-18 – – – 6,434 6,450 6,434 -16 0 6
May-18 6,394 6,452 6,394 6,420 6,426 6,426 0 25,738 114,064
Jul-18 – – – 6,512 6,512 6,512 0 0 4
Aug-18 – – – 6,450 6,450 6,450 0 0 6
Sep-18 6,468 6,512 6,468 6,500 6,506 6,494 -12 320 564
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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