Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Alerts History
• 10-Aug-2017 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2016/17 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 114 MLN TNS VS 113.92 MLN TNS FROM JULY FORECAST – AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS AGENCY CONAB
• 10-Aug-2017 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2016/17 TOTAL CORN CROP FORECAST 97.2 MLN TNS VS PRIOR ESTIMATE OF 96 MLN TNS – CONAB
• 10-Aug-2017 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2016/17 TOTAL GRAINS CROP SEEN AT 238.2 MLN TNS VS 237.2 MLN TNS IN JULY AND 186.6 MLN TNS LAST SEASON – CONAB
Brazil raises 2016/17 soybean output forecast to 114 mln T – Reuters News
10-Aug-2017 07:05:12 AM
SAO PAULO, Aug 10 (Reuters) – Conab, Brazil’s agricultural statistics and food supply agency, on Thursday raised its estimate for the country’s 2016/17 soybean crop to 114 million tonnes from 113.92 million tonnes in July, citing an increase in planted area.
The agency also reviewed its total corn estimate for the current season to 97.2 million tonnes from 96 million tonnes last month, also mentioning an increase in planted area.
Brazil’s total grain crop is expected to reach 238.2 million tonnes, 27.7 percent more than in the previous season due to favorable climate and productivity gains, Conab said.
(Reporting by Ana Mano; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
WASHINGTON–The following are key numbers from USDA’s crop report Thursday
and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a
Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2017 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July USDA 2016
Corn Production 14,153.0 13,841 13,590-14,070 14,255 15,148
Soybean Production 4,381.0 4,202 4,165-4,260 4,260 4,307
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July USDA 2016
Corn Yield 169.5 166.0 162.8-168.5 170.7 174.6
Soybean Yield 49.4 47.4 46.9-48.0 48.0 52.1
***
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2016-17
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn 2,370.0 2,366 2,320-2,400 2,370
Soybeans 370.0 401 370-430 410
Wheat 1,184.0 1,185 1,180-1,200 1,184
2017-18
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn 2,273.0 1,966 1,642-2,375 2,325
Soybeans 475.0 426 369-474 460
Wheat 933.0 907 806-948 938
***
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2016-17
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn 228.6 227.2 226.0-228.5 227.5
Soybeans 97.0 94.4 93.5-95.0 94.8
Wheat 258.6 258.1 256.0-261.0 258.1
2017-18
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn 200.9 194.7 183.0-200.1 200.8
Soybeans 97.8 92.2 89.0-94.0 93.5
Wheat 264.7 256.7 245.0-263.1 260.6
***
2017-18 Wheat Production (million bushels)
Thursday’s USDA
Estimate Average Range USDA July 2016-17
All Wheat 1,739 1,713 1,550-1,784 1,760 2,310
Winter Wheat 1,287 1,278 1,258-1,293 1,279 1,672
Hard Red Winter 758 757 737-775 758 1,082
Soft Red Winter 306 306 300-310 306 345
White Winter 223 215 205-224 216 247
Other Spring 402 393 350-440 423 534
Durum 51 57 52-65 58 104

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Aug 10
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound)
bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======US====== ================WORLD==============
Ending Stocks Exports Production
17-18 16-17 15-16 : 17-18 16-17 15-16 17-18 16-17 15-16
Soybeans 475 370 197 :151.19 144.99 132.46 347.36 351.74 312.87
Brazil na na na : 64.00 61.00 54.38 107.00 114.00 96.50
Argentina na na na : 8.00 7.00 9.92 57.00 57.80 56.80
China na na na : 0.15 0.12 0.11 14.00 12.90 11.79
Soyoil 2,062 1,982 1,687 : 11.92 11.51 11.69 56.01 53.83 51.50
Corn 2,273 2,370 1,737 :152.03 162.41 119.62 1,033.47 1,070.51 969.49
China na na na : 0.02 0.05 0.00 215.00 219.55 224.63
Argentina na na na : 28.50 27.50 21.64 40.00 41.00 29.00
S. Africa na na na : 1.70 2.50 0.84 12.50 16.70 8.21
Cotton(a) 5.80 2.80 3.80 : 37.17 37.39 35.28 117.31 106.49 96.76
All Wheat 933 1,184 976 :179.92 182.27 172.87 743.18 755.00 736.97
China na na na : 0.80 0.80 0.73 130.00 128.85 130.19
EU 27 na na na : 29.50 27.00 34.69 149.56 145.70 160.48
Canada na na na : 20.50 20.25 22.13 26.50 31.70 27.59
Argentina na na na : 11.50 11.70 9.60 17.50 17.50 11.30
Australia na na na : 19.00 24.00 16.12 23.50 35.11 24.17
Russia na na na : 31.50 27.80 25.54 77.50 72.53 61.04
Ukraine na na na : 16.00 18.00 17.43 26.50 26.80 27.27
Sorghum 52 53 37 : na na na na na na
Barley 70 108 102 : na na na na na na
Oats 34 52 57 : na na na na na na
Rice 30.1 45.9 46.5 : 43.71 43.08 40.45 482.59 483.92 471.87

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was sharply lower to limit down in reaction to the USDA reports. USDA showed much higher than expected production and ending stocks estimates. It could be that USDA is overestimating yield on this report and that projection estimates are the highest for the year. Prices are now at Support areas. The temperatures are more moderate in Texas and there have been some showers. The growing weather in the US Delta and Southeast is generally good as rains have been seen in many growing areas. Monsoon rains are reported as very uneven in India and Pakistan and some flooding has been reported in the Gujurat of India. Some central areas and eastern áreas have missed rains. Some crops are lost in the worst hit areas of the northwest parts of India due to flooding. China is reporting improved production conditions as rains have improved in growing areas. It has been too hot and dry in Turkey and production losses are possible.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see scattered showers this week. Some areas could see big rains. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Texas will see dry conditions through Saturday, then scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 66.94 ct/lb. ICE certified stocks are now 19,430 bales, from 19,523 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 7110 and 7380 December. Support is at 7020, 6970, and 6900 December, with resistance of 7160, 7220, and 7250 December.

DJ USDA Crop Production: U.S. All Cotton-Aug 10
Cotton: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by Type, State,
and United States, 2016 and Forecasted Aug 1, 2017
========================================================================
Type Area Harvested Yield Production
and ==============================================================
State 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017
========================================================================
==1,000 Acres== === Pounds === ===== 1,000 Bales =====
Upland
U.S. 9,320.0 10,806.0 855 878 16,601.0 19,775.0
Amer Pima
U.S. 187.8 247.3 1,454 1,495 568.9 770.0
All Cotton
U.S. 9,507.8 11,053.3 867 892 17,169.9 20,545.0
=============================================================================
1/ Production ginned and to be ginned.
2/ 480-pound net weight bales.
Cottonseed: Production, United States,
2016-17 and Forecasted Aug 1, 2017
=========================================================================
Production
==================================================================
2016 2017 1/
=========================================================================
1,000 Tons
U.S. 5,369.0 6,479.0
=========================================================================
1/ Based on a 3-year average lint-seed ratio.

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Cotton – Aug 10
U.S. Cotton Supply and Use
========================================================================
Item 2016/2017 2017/2018
prev Aug 10 prev Aug 10
=========================================================================
Area
Million acres
Planted 10.07 10.07 12.06 ** 12.06
Harvested 9.51 9.51 11.18 ** 11.05
Pounds
Yield per harv. acre 867 867 816 ** 892
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 3.80 3.80 3.20 2.80
Production 17.17 17.17 19.00 20.55
Imports 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01
Supply, total 20.98 20.98 22.21 23.36
Domestic use 3.30 3.25 3.40 3.35
Exports 14.50 14.92 13.50 14.20
Use, total 17.80 18.17 16.90 17.55
Unaccounted -0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01
Ending stocks 3.20 2.80 5.30 5.80
Avg. farm price 68.00 68.00 54.00 – 68.00 55.00 – 67.00
=========================================================================

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton – Aug 10
World Cotton Supply and Use
(Million 480-pound bales)
=============================================================================
beginning domestic exports ending
stocks prod imports use use loss stocks
=============================================================================
2017/18 (Projected)
World
Jul 90.27 115.36 36.77 117.03 36.81 -0.16 88.73
Aug 89.99 117.31 37.19 117.40 37.17 -0.19 90.09
United States
Jul 3.20 19.00 0.01 3.40 13.50 0.01 5.30
Aug 2.80 20.55 0.01 3.35 14.20 0.01 5.80
Total foreign
Jul 87.07 96.36 36.76 113.63 23.31 -0.17 83.43
Aug 87.19 96.76 37.18 114.05 22.97 -0.20 84.29
Major exporters
Jul 28.83 53.92 2.14 32.50 20.05 -0.29 32.63
Aug 28.93 54.02 2.04 32.25 19.81 -0.29 33.21
Major importers
Jul 56.57 39.59 32.15 77.10 2.20 0.11 48.90
Aug 56.58 39.89 32.65 77.75 2.10 0.09 49.19
=============================================================================

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher again yesterday. The weather and growing conditions remain good in Florida. There are no systems in the Atlantic to cause concern about tropical storm development that could be detrimental to trees and fruit. The busiest part of the hurricane season is coming in the next few weeks, so more storms can and probably will form. The demand side remains weak and there are plenty of supplies in the US. Brazil has been exporting FCOJ to the US to cover the short Florida crop. Domestic production remains very low due to the greening disease and the drought early in the growing season. Trees now are showing fruit of varying sizes and overall conditions are now called good as big rains have been seen in the last few weeks. It is drier now in the state. Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 130.00, 128.00, and 127.00 September, with resistance at 136.00, 139.00, and 142.00 September.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower on follow through selling tied to the weaker Brazilian Real. Speculators appeared to be the best sellers, although there were reports of producer selling in Brazil due to the currency moves. Ideas of smaller offers from Brazil and the rest of Latin America are still around, but the market seems to have factored these ideas into prices already. The weather forecasts kept outlooks for near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions in Brazil. Producers are still worried about an extended outbreak of dry weather as it is almost flowering time in Brazil. Reports of Broca worm moving into Brazil crops is bringing ideas of additional losses. The harvest in Brazil is starting to wind down. Reports indicate that the quality of the beans harvested in Brazil is not good and that many beans are small. The cash market is quiet with little interest from producers or roasters. Chart trends are up in New York.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.571 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 131.77 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers, with big storms today in southern Mexico. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 150.00 September. Support is at 139.00, 135.00, and 133.00 September, and resistance is at 145.00, 148.00 and 151.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2100, 2090, and 2060 September, and resistance is at 2150, 2180, and 2200 September.

SUGAR
General Comments: Futures in London and New York were lower again on follow through speculative selling tied to a weaker Brazilian Real. The charts show that futures remain in an overall trading range and are near the low end of the range. The big harvest in Brazil continues, but some of the processing will probably switch now to ethanol due to tax changes this week and relative US Dollar weakness. Production potential in Thailand seems improved for now as monsoon rains have been better than last year. It is raining in much of India now as the monsoon is active, but rains have been uneven. Some northwest areas have been flooded due to big rains. Other areas are too dry and there could be some damage to crops if more rains do not show up fairly soon. Thailand is getting rains. The rest of Southeast Asia is seeing average to above average rains so far this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 1,584 contracts were delivered against September Sugar 16 futures yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1320, 1300, and 1240 October, and resistance is at 1390, 1420, and 1480 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 377.00, 374.00, and 370.00 October, and resistance is at 386.00, 392.00, and 398.00 October.

DJ Brazil Center-South Sugar Crush Higher in July — Unica
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian sugar mills in the country’s center-south region crushed more cane in the second half of July compared with a year earlier, according to industry group Unica.
Center-south mills crushed 50.7 million metric tons of cane in the period, a rise of 2.6% from the same period a year earlier. They produced 3.4 million tons of sugar, up 9.5%, and made 2.1 billion liters of ethanol, an increase of 0.1%.
The production mix for the second half of last month was 50.3% sugar to 49.7% ethanol. A year earlier, the mix was 48.05% sugar and 51.95% ethanol.
Brazil is the world’s biggest sugar producer and exporter, and the center-south grows about 90% of the country’s cane.
In the season from April 1 through Aug. 1, mills in the region crushed 297.3 million tons of cane, down 4.7% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production rose 3.5% to 17.6 million tons, and ethanol output fell 10.2% to 11.6 billion liters.
The production mix for the season through Aug. 1 was 48.4% sugar to 51.6% ethanol. A year earlier, the mix was 44.85% sugar and 55.15% ethanol.

DJ ISO Dissects Sugar’s July Rally, Tips 4MT Surplus for 2017/18 — Market Talk
1050 GMT – After a sharp July rally, raw sugar futures have narrowed the premium gap to white sugar prices to its slightest since May 2015, according to the International Sugar Organization’s monthly report. A 5.3% improvement in raw sugar prices through July came after a “technical correction and traders liquidating their short positions,” ISO economist Sergey Gudoshnikov says. While analysts at FO Licht and Rabobank guide for 2017/18 surplusses of 5.4 million tons and 2.7 million tons respectively, the ISO’s preliminary call is for 4 million tons. While cane crush in Brazil’s centre-south region is 6.13% behind where its mid-July 2016 level, the ISO tips dry conditions to help quicken the crush pace again. Strong rainfall is also behind the ISO’s bullishness on Indian, Pakistani, and Thai production. Sugar is down 0.37% at 13.59 cents a pound. (david.hodari@wsj.com; @davidhodari)

• 10-Aug-2017 09:06:39 AM – BRAZIL SUGAR GROUP COSAN SEES ETHANOL GIVING BETTER RETURNS THAN SUGAR IN SOME BRAZILIAN STATES, COULD CHANGE PRODUCTION MIX
• 10-Aug-2017 09:14:25 AM – BRAZIL’S COSAN CUTS SUGAR HEDGING, SEES PRICES FOR THE SWEETENER RECOVERING IN MID-TERM
• 10-Aug-2017 09:38:37 AM – BRAZIL’S COSAN SAYS CHANGES TO PETROBRAS FUELS PRICING POLICY REDUCED ARBITRAGE POTENTIAL ON FUELS IMPORTS
• 10-Aug-2017 09:49:40 AM – BRAZIL’S COSAN CEO SAYS JV RAÍZEN CONTINUES TO LOOK AT POSSIBLE ACQUSITIONS AFTER BUYING TWO MILLS FROM TONON BIOENERGIA SA
• 10-Aug-2017 09:51:03 AM – COSAN CEO SAYS RAÍZEN WILL BE VERY SELECTIVE IN ANY ADDITIONAL M&A MOVES IN BRAZIL
Brazil’s Cosan sees improving returns for ethanol – Reuters News
10-Aug-2017 09:30:30 AM
SAO PAULO, Aug 10 (Reuters) – Energy and infrastructure company Cosan SA Indústria e Comércio CSAN3.SA said on Thursday ethanol sales were giving better returns than sugar in some Brazilian states, a factor that could change its current production mix.
Executives of Cosan, which partners Royal Dutch Shell Plc RDSa.L in the 50-50 joint venture Raízen, said during a call with analysts that the company had reduced sugar hedging compared to its position during this same period last year, expecting prices for the sweetener to recover mid-term.

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Sugar – Aug 10
U.S. Sugar Supply and Use
==============================================================================
Item 2016/2017 2017/2018
prev Aug 10 prev Aug 10
==============================================================================
1,000 short tons, raw value
Beginning stocks 2,053 2,054 1,440 1,675
Production 8,836 8,848 8,738 8,970
Beet sugar 4,988 4,998 4,988 5,068
Cane sugar 3,848 3,850 3,750 3,902
Florida 2,055 2,055 2,000 2,126
Hawaii 43 43 0 0
Lousiana 1,612 1,612 1,600 1,626
Texas 138 140 150 150
Imports 3,130 3,353 3,557 3,631
TRQ 1,578 1,727 1,549 1,707
Other program 375 350 175 200
Other 1,177 1,276 1,833 1,724
Mexico 1,162 1,266 1,823 1,714
Total supply 14,020 14,255 13,735 14,276
Exports 125 125 25 25
Deliveries 12,455 12,455 12,578 12,578
Food 12,300 12,300 12,423 12,423
Other 155 155 155 155
Miscellaneous 0 0 0 0
Total use 12,580 12,580 12,603 12,603
Ending stocks 1,440 1,675 1,132 1,673
Stocks to use ratio 11.4 13.3 9.0 13.3
==============================================================================

DJ USDA Crop Production: U.S. Sugarbeets/Cane-Aug 10
Sugarbeets: Area Harvested, Yield, and Production by State
and United States, 2016 and Forecasted August 1, 2017
=========================================================================
Area Harvested Yield Production
=================================================================-
State 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017
=========================================================================
1000 Acres Tons ======1000 Tons =======
CA 1/ 25.0 25.2 44.3 44.7 1,108 1,126
CO 27.6 28.1 33.6 36.6 927 1,028
ID 170.0 167.0 41.4 41.9 7,038 6,997
MI 149.0 142.5 30.8 30.9 4,589 4,403
MN 417.0 405.0 30.0 30.4 12,510 12,312
MT 45.3 42.0 35.0 36.4 1,586 1,529
NE 47.2 48.4 29.9 32.4 1,411 1,568
ND 203.0 192.0 30.8 32.2 6,242 6,182
OR 10.2 8.8 42.0 39.9 428 351
WA 1.9 1.8 47.9 47.4 91 85
WY 30.0 27.1 31.7 28.2 951 764
U.S. 1,126.2 1,087.9 32.7 33.4 36,881 36,345
=========================================================================
1/ Relates to year of intended harvest for fall planted beets in central
California and to year of planting for overwintered beets in central
and southern California.
Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed : Area Harvested, Yield, and Production
By State and United States, 2016 and Forecasted August 1, 2017
=====================================================================
Area Harvested Yield 1/ Production 1/
==============================================================
State 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017
=====================================================================
1000 Acres Tons ===== 1,000 Tons =====
FL 417.0 408.0 40.5 43.0 16,904 17,544
HI 15.5 (NA) 86.2 (NA) 1,336 (NA)
LA 431.0 425.0 28.8 30.4 12,413 12,920
TX 39.6 40.5 37.0 34.0 1,465 1,377
U.S. 903.1 873.5 35.6 36.5 32,118 31,841
=========================================================================
(NA) Not available.
1/ Net tons.
2/ Estimates discontinued in 2017.

COCOA
General Comments: Futures closed lower on follow through selling from speculators. The market is holding in a big trading range. It is warmer and drier in Ivory Coast. The rest of West Africa is still getting showers and more moderate temperatures. Chocolate manufacturers in general have reported improved sales volumes and ideas are that the better sales can continue as chocolate and cocoa are relatively cheap. Ivory Coast is expected to have a big crop starting harvest this Fall, but it should be smaller than last year. Ghana also expects a good crop this year The offer side of the market appears to be less right now as West Africa is between crops. The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East African conditions are now called good. Brazil remains too dry. Good conditions are still seen in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.239 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1970, 1940, and 1900 September, with resistance at 2040, 2070, and 2090 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1530, 1470, and 1450 September, with resistance at 1570, 1600, and 1610 September.

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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