Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

Alerts History
• 10-Aug-2017 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2016/17 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 114 MLN TNS VS 113.92 MLN TNS FROM JULY FORECAST – AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS AGENCY CONAB
• 10-Aug-2017 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2016/17 TOTAL CORN CROP FORECAST 97.2 MLN TNS VS PRIOR ESTIMATE OF 96 MLN TNS – CONAB
• 10-Aug-2017 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2016/17 TOTAL GRAINS CROP SEEN AT 238.2 MLN TNS VS 237.2 MLN TNS IN JULY AND 186.6 MLN TNS LAST SEASON – CONAB
Brazil raises 2016/17 soybean output forecast to 114 mln T – Reuters News
10-Aug-2017 07:05:12 AM
SAO PAULO, Aug 10 (Reuters) – Conab, Brazil’s agricultural statistics and food supply agency, on Thursday raised its estimate for the country’s 2016/17 soybean crop to 114 million tonnes from 113.92 million tonnes in July, citing an increase in planted area.
The agency also reviewed its total corn estimate for the current season to 97.2 million tonnes from 96 million tonnes last month, also mentioning an increase in planted area.
Brazil’s total grain crop is expected to reach 238.2 million tonnes, 27.7 percent more than in the previous season due to favorable climate and productivity gains, Conab said.
(Reporting by Ana Mano; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
WASHINGTON–The following are key numbers from USDA’s crop report Thursday
and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a
Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2017 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July USDA 2016
Corn Production 14,153.0 13,841 13,590-14,070 14,255 15,148
Soybean Production 4,381.0 4,202 4,165-4,260 4,260 4,307
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July USDA 2016
Corn Yield 169.5 166.0 162.8-168.5 170.7 174.6
Soybean Yield 49.4 47.4 46.9-48.0 48.0 52.1
***
U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2016-17
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn 2,370.0 2,366 2,320-2,400 2,370
Soybeans 370.0 401 370-430 410
Wheat 1,184.0 1,185 1,180-1,200 1,184
2017-18
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn 2,273.0 1,966 1,642-2,375 2,325
Soybeans 475.0 426 369-474 460
Wheat 933.0 907 806-948 938
***
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2016-17
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn 228.6 227.2 226.0-228.5 227.5
Soybeans 97.0 94.4 93.5-95.0 94.8
Wheat 258.6 258.1 256.0-261.0 258.1
2017-18
Thursday’s
Estimate Average Range USDA July
Corn 200.9 194.7 183.0-200.1 200.8
Soybeans 97.8 92.2 89.0-94.0 93.5
Wheat 264.7 256.7 245.0-263.1 260.6
***
2017-18 Wheat Production (million bushels)
Thursday’s USDA
Estimate Average Range USDA July 2016-17
All Wheat 1,739 1,713 1,550-1,784 1,760 2,310
Winter Wheat 1,287 1,278 1,258-1,293 1,279 1,672
Hard Red Winter 758 757 737-775 758 1,082
Soft Red Winter 306 306 300-310 306 345
White Winter 223 215 205-224 216 247
Other Spring 402 393 350-440 423 534
Durum 51 57 52-65 58 104

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Aug 10
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound)
bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======US====== ================WORLD==============
Ending Stocks Exports Production
17-18 16-17 15-16 : 17-18 16-17 15-16 17-18 16-17 15-16
Soybeans 475 370 197 :151.19 144.99 132.46 347.36 351.74 312.87
Brazil na na na : 64.00 61.00 54.38 107.00 114.00 96.50
Argentina na na na : 8.00 7.00 9.92 57.00 57.80 56.80
China na na na : 0.15 0.12 0.11 14.00 12.90 11.79
Soyoil 2,062 1,982 1,687 : 11.92 11.51 11.69 56.01 53.83 51.50
Corn 2,273 2,370 1,737 :152.03 162.41 119.62 1,033.47 1,070.51 969.49
China na na na : 0.02 0.05 0.00 215.00 219.55 224.63
Argentina na na na : 28.50 27.50 21.64 40.00 41.00 29.00
S. Africa na na na : 1.70 2.50 0.84 12.50 16.70 8.21
Cotton(a) 5.80 2.80 3.80 : 37.17 37.39 35.28 117.31 106.49 96.76
All Wheat 933 1,184 976 :179.92 182.27 172.87 743.18 755.00 736.97
China na na na : 0.80 0.80 0.73 130.00 128.85 130.19
EU 27 na na na : 29.50 27.00 34.69 149.56 145.70 160.48
Canada na na na : 20.50 20.25 22.13 26.50 31.70 27.59
Argentina na na na : 11.50 11.70 9.60 17.50 17.50 11.30
Australia na na na : 19.00 24.00 16.12 23.50 35.11 24.17
Russia na na na : 31.50 27.80 25.54 77.50 72.53 61.04
Ukraine na na na : 16.00 18.00 17.43 26.50 26.80 27.27
Sorghum 52 53 37 : na na na na na na
Barley 70 108 102 : na na na na na na
Oats 34 52 57 : na na na na na na
Rice 30.1 45.9 46.5 : 43.71 43.08 40.45 482.59 483.92 471.87

Alerts History
• 10-Aug-2017 02:13:46 PM – FARMERS ENROLLED 86.832 MLN ACRES CORN, IN U.S. CROP SUBSIDY PROGRAMS INCLUDING FAILED ACRES FOR 2017 AS OF AUG. 1 – USDA
• 10-Aug-2017 02:13:46 PM – FARMERS ENROLLED 88.219 MLN ACRES SOYBEANS, IN U.S. CROP SUBSIDY PROGRAMS INCLUDING FAILED ACRES FOR 2017 AS OF AUG. 1 – USDA
• 10-Aug-2017 02:13:46 PM – FARMERS ENROLLED 42.761 MLN ACRES WHEAT, IN U.S. CROP SUBSIDY PROGRAMS INCLUDING FAILED ACRES FOR 2017 AS OF AUG. 1 – USDA
• 10-Aug-2017 02:13:46 PM – U.S. FARMERS REPORT PREVENTED PLANTINGS OF 0.950 MLN ACRES CORN FOR 2017 AS OF AUG. 1 – USDA
• 10-Aug-2017 02:13:46 PM – U.S. FARMERS REPORT PREVENTED PLANTINGS OF 0.437 MLN ACRES SOYBEANS FOR 2017 AS OF AUG. 1 – USDA
• 10-Aug-2017 02:13:46 PM – U.S. FARMERS REPORT PREVENTED PLANTINGS OF 0.614 MLN ACRES WHEAT FOR 2017 AS OF AUG. 1 – USDA
USDA updates farmer-reported U.S crop planting totals for August – Reuters News
10-Aug-2017 02:13:46 PM
WASHINGTON, Aug 10 (Reuters) – Farmers who participated in U.S. crop subsidy programs reported “prevented plantings” for Aug. 1, 2017 of 0.950 million acres of corn, 0.437 million acres of soybeans, 0.614 million acres of wheat, the Department of Agriculture said on Thursday.
Producers enrolled in subsidy programs for Aug. 1, 2017 reported planted acreage, including failed acres, at 86.832 million of corn, 88.219 million of soybeans and 42.761 million of wheat.
Producers who enroll in several Farm Services Agency programs must submit to USDA an annual report regarding all cropland use on their farms.
USDA uses the information as an element in its crop estimates, which cover all farms, not just those who participate in the farm program.
Following are comparisons of farmer-reported plantings in Aug 2017 and Aug 2016, based on a survey of farms:
U.S. corn and soybean plantings
Prevented planting
(thousands of acres)

Crop Aug 2017 Aug 2016
Corn 950 1,039
Soybeans 437 237
Wheat 614 1,780
Rice 361 91
Barley 29 14
Sorghum 33 27
Cotton-Upland 116 111
U.S. corn and soybean plantings
Plantings
(thousands of acres)
Crop Aug 2017 Aug 2016
Corn 86,832 90,365
Soybeans 88,219 81,368
Wheat 42,761 47,502
Rice 2,421 3,087
Barley 2,353 2,927
Sorghum 4,942 6,048
Cotton-Upland 12,117 9,680

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 11
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL August Aug. 14, 2017 138 Aug 10, 2017
SOYBEAN OIL August Aug. 14, 2017 70 Aug 09, 2017
SOYBEAN August Aug. 14, 2017 5 Aug 08, 2017

WHEAT
General Comments: US markets were sharply lower in reaction to the USDA reports. The US production data was above trade expectations but not all that bearish to prices. However, the world estimates showed a big increase in production for Russia, and this was a surprise for the market. It means that Russia could become the dominant price setter for world Wheat values, and they usually sell cheap. So, prices in the US moved lower. The US Winter Wheat harvest is about ready to wind down now and USDA will most likely issue its final progress report next week. The Spring Wheat harvest is increasing. There are lower production expectations for the Canadian Prairies as it remains dry in western sections and variable in eastern areas. Australia has suffered from hot and dry weather as the crop moves to maturity, but there are reports of better weather now. European crops show variable conditions, but the higher quality crops are expected to be smaller due to bad weather in the north. Both Germany and Poland have seen excessive rains. US prices are very competitive in the world market.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some showers through the weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should get a few showers through the weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather, but showers are possible on Wednesday. Temperatures will average near top below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 453, 443, and 441 September, with resistance at 464, 468, and 473 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 457, 445, and 438 September, with resistance at 465, 471, and 472 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 721, 708, and 687 September, and resistance is at 748, 764, and 773 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed with moderate losses while the Corn and Soybeans and Wheat all moved lower. The USDA report for Rice was in line with many market ideas and should be positive overall for prices longer term. The biggest questions were on the demand side, where USDA continues to lower domestic and residual demand despite many ideas that this demand should hold steady. The harvest is active in Louisiana and Texas. The quality appears to be good so far in Louisiana amid average to below average yields. Texas is showing very good yields and ideas are that the quality will be very good as well. Harvest activity will move to other states soon. Mississippi has seen some early cutting in southern areas. Arkansas and Missouri will not get started until late August at the earliest. Crop potential in these states is an open question due primarily to harsh weather at the start of the growing season and variable conditions for much of the year. Current weather is mostly good.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers each day Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1204, 1198, and 1181 September, with resistance at 1237, 1245, and 1252 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed sharply lower in reaction to the USDA reports. Just about everyone expected sub trend yields, and some yield estimates are below 165 bushels per acre. However, USDA showed much higher than expected yield and production potential than anyone in the trade had expected. USDA showed less ears per population than last year, but very high ear weights and that has some analysts questioning these estimates. There are widespread expectations that the estimates released last night will be the highest production estimates of the year, Minnesota and parts of Iowa have good crops, but stress is possible in other western areas from the overall dry conditions. However, Missouri and parts of Illinois have good crops. Eastern areas have seen too much rain in many cases and some western areas have been too dry. These variable conditions are not changing for the short term.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 373, 379, and 405 September. Support is at 368, 367, and 365 September, and resistance is at 374, 377, and 379 September. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 266 and 249 September. Support is at 269, 267, and 265 September, and resistance is at 274, 282, and 286 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were sharply lower in reaction to the USDA reports. USDA showed much higher yield potential and production potential than expected by the trade, and the USDA estimate was above all trade estimates. Soybeans fell sharply and already made first swing targets for the move. Prices could fall a little further next week, but widespread disbelief in the estimates from USDA implies that buying should develop again soon.. The Price Group trip to Central Illinois last weekend showed highly variable conditions and production potential for Soybeans. Some fields will not be harvested, and all fields showed short Soybeans plants even if the color and other factors were good. The Soybeans are just starting to flower now and have not yet set pods. The crop progress is well beyond last year. Wet weather in eastern areas has hurt Soybeans potential, although recent drier weather could allow for some improvement. Plants are small and are not likely to yield well due to all of the rain. Western areas could use some rain, but many crops appear to be in good condition.
Overnight News: China bought 120,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 959, 949, and 948 September, and resistance is at 975, 976, and 978 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 304.00 and 285.00 September. Support is at 305.00, 302.00, and 298.00 September, and resistance is at 313.00, 315.00, and 317.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 3380, 3320, and 3300 September, with resistance at 3440, 3530, and 3550 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher again yesterday as many western areas remain too dry for good production potential. Ideas are that crop conditions are highly variable, but it is the hot and dry conditions in the est that have the most trade attention. Reports of tight supplies and limited offers in the cash market continue. Palm Oil was higher along with the outside markets. MPOB data was bearish. The July exports reported by the private sources held strong into the end of the month.. There are reports of strong Chinese buying interest in Palm Oil. Traders talked once again about increasing production. Futures are showing that a short term bottom might have been completed in the last couple of weeks.
Overnight News: ITS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are 355,069 tons so far this month, from 360,114 tons last month. SGS said that exports are now 363,007 tons, from 381,241 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 505.00, 500.00, and 495.00 November, with resistance at 514.00, 529.00, and 535.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2690, 2710, and 2780 October. Support is at 2620, 2600, and 2570 October, with resistance at 2660, 2700, and 2730 October.

MPOB Report:
Observation period : Jul
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Thursday, 10 Aug
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.68 mil tonnes, Up 11.0%
Exports – 1.43 mil tonnes, Up 4.0%
Ending Stocks – 1.63 mil tonnes, Up 6.5%
Actual as follows:
Production – 1.83 mil tonnes, Up 20.7%
Exports – 1.40 mil tonnes, Up 1.3%
Ending Stocks – 1.78 mil tonnes, Up 16.8%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.51 mil tonnes, Down 8.5%
Exports – 1.38 mil tonnes, Down 8.4%
Ending Stocks – 1.53 mil tonnes, Down 1.9%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry weather for the next week. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August 25-Sep 131 Sep 36 Sep 48 Nov minus 4 Sep
September 26-Sep 52 Sep 47 Nov
October 29-Dec 50 Dec 487Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua Paranagua
August
September minus 24 Sep 47 Sep
October minus 18 Oct 35 Dec
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 10
Winnipeg–The following are the closing
cash grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 491.20 up 5.50
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 516.20 dn 5.00
2 Can 503.20 dn 5.00
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 531.20 dn 5.00
2 Can 518.20 dn 5.00
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 205.00 unchanged
Can Feed 178.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 197.00 unchanged
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian AM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 11
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 0430 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 645.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 645.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 640.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 647.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 650.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 650.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 645.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 652.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 622.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 615.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 2,650.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 280.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2940)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 11
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 284,122 lots, or 11.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-17 3,887 3,895 3,830 3,850 3,876 3,858 -18 23,934 30,190
Nov-17 3,923 3,923 3,923 3,923 3,935 3,923 -12 2 10
Jan-18 3,997 4,017 3,927 3,954 3,993 3,971 -22 258,036 202,010
Mar-18 3,982 3,982 3,973 3,973 3,979 3,979 0 8 40
May-18 4,038 4,050 3,973 3,992 4,018 4,002 -16 1,976 4,290
Jul-18 – – – 4,002 4,002 4,002 0 0 2
Sep-18 4,023 4,103 4,000 4,026 4,037 4,052 15 78 104
Nov-18 4,057 4,057 4,031 4,031 4,028 4,044 16 4 8
Jan-19 4,120 4,120 4,028 4,042 4,078 4,078 0 84 18
Corn
Turnover: 934,240 lots, or 15.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-17 1,681 1,685 1,670 1,682 1,680 1,680 0 145,472 301,212
Nov-17 1,700 1,710 1,691 1,704 1,711 1,704 -7 88 536
Jan-18 1,702 1,729 1,700 1,727 1,716 1,715 -1 762,502 1,219,194
Mar-18 1,716 1,727 1,710 1,727 1,712 1,721 9 96 1,178
May-18 1,758 1,771 1,750 1,770 1,763 1,760 -3 26,066 157,162
Jul-18 1,776 1,781 1,776 1,781 1,776 1,777 1 16 108
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,567,076 lots, or 71.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-17 – – – 2,820 2,820 2,820 0 0 0
Sep-17 2,864 2,883 2,763 2,775 2,851 2,807 -44 254,344 272,438
Nov-17 2,848 2,870 2,754 2,763 2,845 2,803 -42 150 222
Dec-17 2,870 2,873 2,760 2,764 2,850 2,785 -65 352 818
Jan-18 2,836 2,855 2,723 2,725 2,822 2,769 -53 2,131,214 1,583,006
Mar-18 2,786 2,787 2,678 2,680 2,757 2,697 -60 56 344
May-18 2,756 2,769 2,652 2,652 2,745 2,688 -57 180,912 295,482
Jul-18 2,769 2,769 2,651 2,676 2,756 2,693 -63 48 76
Palm Oil
Turnover: 935,476 lots, or 50.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-17 – – – 5,630 5,630 5,630 0 0 0
Sep-17 5,494 5,556 5,414 5,448 5,460 5,466 6 69,900 111,730
Oct-17 5,474 5,474 5,366 5,366 5,452 5,420 -32 4 4
Nov-17 5,536 5,536 5,408 5,498 5,460 5,484 24 8 10
Dec-17 – – – 5,434 5,454 5,434 -20 0 2
Jan-18 5,436 5,504 5,346 5,376 5,400 5,414 14 849,954 645,728
Feb-18 5,378 5,378 5,378 5,378 5,406 5,378 -28 2 10
Mar-18 – – – 5,494 5,494 5,494 0 0 0
Apr-18 – – – 5,620 5,620 5,620 0 0 10
May-18 5,546 5,626 5,472 5,494 5,522 5,534 12 15,594 46,008
Jun-18 5,600 5,600 5,600 5,600 5,564 5,600 36 2 14
Jul-18 5,684 5,684 5,582 5,582 5,612 5,602 -10 12 6
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 1,033,688 lots, or 65.01 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-17 – – – 6,200 6,200 6,200 0 0 54
Sep-17 6,186 6,278 6,084 6,132 6,138 6,160 22 143,964 183,078
Nov-17 6,352 6,366 6,352 6,366 6,304 6,358 54 4 30
Dec-17 6,360 6,360 6,310 6,310 6,320 6,326 6 6 4
Jan-18 6,328 6,426 6,218 6,266 6,280 6,306 26 865,902 731,094
Mar-18 – – – 6,266 6,266 6,266 0 0 0
May-18 6,436 6,528 6,322 6,360 6,384 6,404 20 23,812 47,930
Jul-18 – – – 6,420 6,420 6,420 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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