Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
• 10-Aug-2017 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2016/17 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 114 MLN TNS VS 113.92 MLN TNS FROM JULY FORECAST – AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS AGENCY CONAB
• 10-Aug-2017 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2016/17 TOTAL CORN CROP FORECAST 97.2 MLN TNS VS PRIOR ESTIMATE OF 96 MLN TNS – CONAB
• 10-Aug-2017 07:00:00 AM – BRAZIL’S 2016/17 TOTAL GRAINS CROP SEEN AT 238.2 MLN TNS VS 237.2 MLN TNS IN JULY AND 186.6 MLN TNS LAST SEASON – CONAB
Brazil raises 2016/17 soybean output forecast to 114 mln T – Reuters News
10-Aug-2017 07:05:12 AM
SAO PAULO, Aug 10 (Reuters) – Conab, Brazil’s agricultural statistics and food supply agency, on Thursday raised its estimate for the country’s 2016/17 soybean crop to 114 million tonnes from 113.92 million tonnes in July, citing an increase in planted area.
The agency also reviewed its total corn estimate for the current season to 97.2 million tonnes from 96 million tonnes last month, also mentioning an increase in planted area.
Brazil’s total grain crop is expected to reach 238.2 million tonnes, 27.7 percent more than in the previous season due to favorable climate and productivity gains, Conab said.
(Reporting by Ana Mano; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals – Aug 10
For the week ended Aug 3, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1. The
marketing year for corn, soybeans and sorghum begins Sep 1. The
marketing year for soy meal and soy oil begins Oct 1.
For rice and cotton, “this year” is the 2017-2018 marketing
year, which began Aug 1, while “last year” is 2016-2017.
wk’s net change total
in commitments undlvd sales
this year next year this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 464.3 0.0 10527.6 10696.7 5145.9 0.0
hrw 233.1 0.0 3747.4 4293.0 1497.9 0.0
srw 16.5 0.0 1092.0 1029.8 640.9 0.0
hrs 138.0 0.0 2779.3 3336.4 1386.7 0.0
white 76.7 0.0 2705.6 1838.7 1493.4 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 203.2 198.8 126.9 0.0
corn 52.0 628.4 56410.7 49630.1 4118.5 5066.6
soybeans 45.0 639.3 60806.3 52670.0 5397.3 7032.0
soymeal 6.0 136.5 10148.1 10382.4 1387.8 1187.2
soyoil 27.7 0.0 1084.3 1157.6 84.1 6.4
upland cotton 821.1-a 0.8 5943.0 3438.1 5829.0 465.9
pima cotton 44.2-b 0.0 191.0 182.6 185.7 0.0
sorghum -2.2 145.5 4831.4 8147.2 279.3 271.5
barley 0.0 0.0 36.3 11.8 30.3 0.0
rice 263.6-c 0.0 435.1 456.2 414.2 0.0
-a: Includes new sales activity for Aug 1-Aug 3 which resulted
in a net increase of 75.8 thousand metric tons. Also includes
745.3 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
-b: Includes new sales activity for Aug 1-Aug 3 which
resulted in a net increase of 1.4 thousand metric tons. Also includes
42.8 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
-c: Includes new sales activity for Aug 1-Aug 3 which
resulted in a net increase of 9.1 thousand metric tons. Also includes
254.5 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
General Comments: Cotton was near unchanged as the market prepared for the USDA reports today. USDA showed mixed conditions on Monday, with some crops showing improvement and other crops showing deterioration. The market thinks USDA could cut production estimates slightly due to earlier stressful weather, and also notes very good demand. Futures trends are up. The temperatures are more moderate in Texas and there have been some showers. The growing weather in the US Delta and Southeast is generally good as rains have been seen in many growing areas. Monsoon rains are reported as very uneven in India and Pakistan and some flooding has been reported in the Gujarat of India. Some central areas and eastern areas have missed rains. Some crops are lost in the worst hit areas of the northwest parts of India due to flooding. China is reporting improved production conditions as rains have improved in growing areas. It has been too hot and dry in Turkey and production losses are possible.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see scattered showers this week. Some areas could see big rains. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Texas will see dry conditions through Saturday, then scattered showers. Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 69.12 ct/lb. ICE certified stocks are now 19,523 bales, from 20,135 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 7110 and 7380 December. Support is at 7020, 6970, and 6900 December, with resistance of 7160, 7220, and 7250 December.
DJ USDA August 2017-18 U.S. Cotton Harvest Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates, in millions of bales, for 2017-18 U.S. cotton production, exports and ending stocks, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal ahead of the August forecasts by the federal government.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated estimates at noon ET Thursday.
Average Range USDA July 2017-18
Production (6) 18.83 18.00-19.65 19.00
Exports (6) 13.65 13.50-14.00 13.50
Ending Stocks (6) 4.80 4.12-5.65 5.3
Production Exports Ending Stocks
The Rose Report 18.62 14.00 4.12
John Robinson 18.00 13.60 4.20
Rogers Varner 19.65 13.50 5.65
Doane Advisory Services 18.80 13.80 4.50
Price Futures Group 18.70 13.50 5.00
Love Consulting 19.20 13.50 5.30
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday in range trading. The weather and growing conditions remain good in Florida. There are no systems in the Atlantic to cause concern about tropical storm development that could be detrimental to trees and fruit. The busiest part of the hurricane season is coming in the next few weeks, so more storms can and probably will form. The demand side remains weak and there are plenty of supplies in the US. Brazil has been exporting FCOJ to the US to cover the short Florida crop. Domestic production remains very low due to the greening disease and the drought early in the growing season. Trees now are showing fruit of varying sizes and overall conditions are now called good as big rains have been seen in the last few weeks. It is drier now in the state. Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 130.00, 128.00, and 127.00 September, with resistance at 136.00, 139.00, and 142.00 September.
General Comments: New York and London closed lower in what was called correction trading. New York held its up trend, but London failed to hold the breakout from Tuesday and trends are mixed again as futures are now back in the trading range. Ideas of smaller offers from Brazil and the rest of Latin America are still around, but the market seems to have factored these ideas into prices already. The weather forecasts kept outlooks for near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions in Brazil. Producers are still worried about an extended outbreak of dry weather as it is almost flowering time in Brazil. Reports of Broca worm moving into Brazil crops is bringing ideas of additional losses. The harvest in Brazil is starting to wind down. Reports indicate that the quality of the beans harvested in Brazil is not good and that many beans are small. The cash market is quiet with little interest from producers or roasters. Chart trends are up in New York.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.571 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 134.65 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers, with big storms today in southern Mexico. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 150.00 September. Support is at 139.00, 135.00, and 133.00 September, and resistance is at 145.00, 148.00 and 151.00 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 2100, 2090, and 2060 September, and resistance is at 2150, 2180, and 2200 September.
General Comments: Futures in London and New York were lower again on follow through speculative selling. The charts show that futures remain in an overall trading range. The big harvest in Brazil continues, but some of the processing will probably switch now to ethanol due to tax changes this week and relative US Dollar weakness. Production potential in Thailand seems improved for now as monsoon rains have been better than last year. It is raining in much of India now as the monsoon is active, but rains have been uneven. Some northwest areas have been flooded due to big rains. Other areas are too dry and there could be some damage to crops if more rains do not show up fairly soon. Thailand is getting rains. The rest of Southeast Asia is seeing average to above average rains so far this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal. ICE said that 1,584 contracts were delivered against September Sugar 16 futures yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1320, 1300, and 1240 October, and resistance is at 1390, 1420, and 1480 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 377.00, 374.00, and 370.00 October, and resistance is at 386.00, 392.00, and 398.00 October.
DJ ISO Dissects Sugar’s July Rally, Tips 4 MT Surplus for 2017/18 — Market Talk
1050 GMT – After a sharp July rally, raw sugar futures have narrowed the premium gap to white sugar prices to its slightest since May 2015, according to the International Sugar Organization’s monthly report. A 5.3% improvement in raw sugar prices through July came after a “technical correction and traders liquidating their short positions,” ISO economist Sergey Gudoshnikov says. While analysts at FO Licht and Rabobank guide for 2017/18 surpluses of 5.4 million tons and 2.7 million tons respectively, the ISO’s preliminary call is for 4 million tons. While cane crush in Brazil’s centre-south region is 6.13% behind where its mid-July 2016 level, the ISO tips dry conditions to help quicken the crush pace again. Strong rainfall is also behind the ISO’s bullishness on Indian, Pakistani, and Thai production. Sugar is down 0.37% at 13.59 cents a pound. (firstname.lastname@example.org; @davidhodari)
• 10-Aug-2017 09:06:39 AM – BRAZIL SUGAR GROUP COSAN SEES ETHANOL GIVING BETTER RETURNS THAN SUGAR IN SOME BRAZILIAN STATES, COULD CHANGE PRODUCTION MIX
• 10-Aug-2017 09:14:25 AM – BRAZIL’S COSAN CUTS SUGAR HEDGING, SEES PRICES FOR THE SWEETENER RECOVERING IN MID-TERM
• 10-Aug-2017 09:38:37 AM – BRAZIL’S COSAN SAYS CHANGES TO PETROBRAS FUELS PRICING POLICY REDUCED ARBITRAGE POTENTIAL ON FUELS IMPORTS
• 10-Aug-2017 09:49:40 AM – BRAZIL’S COSAN CEO SAYS JV RAÍZEN CONTINUES TO LOOK AT POSSIBLE ACQUSITIONS AFTER BUYING TWO MILLS FROM TONON BIOENERGIA SA
• 10-Aug-2017 09:51:03 AM – COSAN CEO SAYS RAÍZEN WILL BE VERY SELECTIVE IN ANY ADDITIONAL M&A MOVES IN BRAZIL
Brazil’s Cosan sees improving returns for ethanol – Reuters News
10-Aug-2017 09:30:30 AM
SAO PAULO, Aug 10 (Reuters) – Energy and infrastructure company Cosan SA Indústria e Comércio CSAN3.SA said on Thursday ethanol sales were giving better returns than sugar in some Brazilian states, a factor that could change its current production mix.
Executives of Cosan, which partners Royal Dutch Shell Plc RDSa.L in the 50-50 joint venture Raízen, said during a call with analysts that the company had reduced sugar hedging compared to its position during this same period last year, expecting prices for the sweetener to recover mid-term.
General Comments: Futures closed lower on what appeared to be some long liquidation from speculators. The market is holding in a big trading range. It is warmer and drier in Ivory Coast. The rest of West Africa is still getting showers and more moderate temperatures. Chocolate manufacturers in general have reported improved sales volumes and ideas are that the better sales can continue as chocolate and cocoa are relatively cheap. Ivory Coast is expected to have a big crop starting harvest this Fall, but it should be smaller than last year. Ghana also expects a good crop this year The offer side of their market appears to be less right now as West Africa is between crops. The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East African conditions are now called good. Brazil remains too dry. Good conditions are still seen in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.256 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1970, 1940, and 1900 September, with resistance at 2040, 2070, and 2090 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1530, 1470, and 1450 September, with resistance at 1570, 1600, and 1610 September.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk of loss & is not suitable for everyone. Trading foreign exchange also involves a high degree of risk. The leverage created by trading on margin can work against you as well as for you, and losses can exceed your entire investment. Before opening an account and trading, you should seek advice from your advisors as appropriate to ensure that you understand the risks and can withstand the losses.
The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017
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