Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
General Comments: Cotton was higher on follow through buying. USDA showed mixed conditions on Monday, with some crops showing improvement and other crops showing deterioration. The progress remains a little behind the five-year average. The market thinks USDA could cut production estimates slightly due to earlier stressful weather, and also notes very good demand. Futures trends are up. The temperatures are more moderate in Texas and there have been some showers. The growing weather in the US Delta and Southeast is generally good as rains have been seen in many growing areas. Monsoon rains are reported as very uneven in India and Pakistan and some flooding has been reported in the Gujarat of India. Some central areas and eastern areas have missed rains. Some crops are lost in the worst hit areas of the northwest parts of India due to flooding. China is reporting improved production conditions as rains have improved in growing areas. It has been too hot and dry in Turkey and production losses are possible.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see scattered showers this week. Some areas could see big rains. Temperatures should average near to below normal. Texas will see scattered showers tomorrow through the weekend. Temperatures will average near to below normal. The USDA average price is now 69.19 ct/lb. ICE certified stocks are now 20,135 bales, from 22,338 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 7110 and 7380 December. Support is at 7020, 6970, and 6900 December, with resistance of 7160, 7220, and 7250 December.
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower again yesterday as the weather remains good. Florida weather is generally good as no hurricanes have yet formed in the Atlantic. There are no systems in the Atlantic to cause concern about tropical storm development that could be detrimental to trees and fruit. One system appears headed to Mexico and others are too faro ut to sea to worry about. The busiest part of the hurricane season is coming in the next few weeks, so more storms can and probably will form. The demand side remains weak and there are plenty of supplies in the US. Brazil has been exporting FCOJ to the US to cover the short Florida crop. Domestic production remains very low due to the greening disease and the drought early in the growing season. Trees now are showing fruit of varying sizes and overall conditions are now called good as big rains have been seen in the last few weeks. It is drier now in the state. Brazil crops remain in mostly good condition.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. Brazil should get mostly dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 130.00, 128.00, and 127.00 September, with resistance at 136.00, 139.00, and 142.00 September.
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again yesterday on speculative buying. London started a new leg higher on the daily charts. They bought on ideas of smaller offers from Brazil and the rest of Latin America. The weather forecasts kept outlooks for near to above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions in Brazil. Producers are still worried about an extended outbreak of dry weather as it is almost flowering time in Brazil. Reports of Broca worm moving into Brazil crops is bringing ideas of additional losses. The harvest in Brazil is starting to wind down. Reports indicate that the quality of the beans harvested in Brazil is not good and that many beans are small. The cash market is quiet with little interest from producers or roasters. Chart trends are up in New York.
Overnight News: Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.564 million bags. The ICO composite price is now 135.23 ct/lb. Brazil will get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Colombia should get scattered to isolated showers. Central America and southern Mexico should get scattered showers, with big storms today in southern Mexico. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 150.00 September. Support is at 139.00, 135.00, and 133.00 September, and resistance is at 145.00, 148.00 and 151.00 September. Trends in London are up with objectives of 2210 and 2320 September. Support is at 2150, 2130, and 2100 September, and resistance is at 2180, 2200, and 2220 September.
DJ Brazil Coffee Exports Fall 11% in July to 1.75M Bags — Cecafe
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO–Brazilian coffee exports fell in July from a year earlier as sales abroad of the robusta variety continued to fall, according to exporters group Cecafe.
The South American country exported 1.75 million 132-pound bags of coffee last month, a decline of 11% from the same month a year earlier, Cecafe said Wednesday. A 4.1% increase in the average price of a bag meant the value of exports fell only 7.3% to $283.4 million.
Sales abroad of the arabica variety of coffee fell 6.9% to 1.5 million bags, while exports of robusta beans dropped 57.% to 16,346 bags.
Exports of roasted, ground and instant coffee fell 25.7% in July to 236,593 bags, Cecafe said.
General Comments: Futures in London and New York were a little lower on follow through speculative selling. The charts show that futures remain in an overall trading range. The big harvest in Brazil continues, but some of the processing will probably switch now to ethanol due to tax changes this week. The harvest pace has been below last year until now, but is now above a year ago. Production potential in Thailand seems improved for now as monsoon rains have been better than last year. It is raining in much of India now as the monsoon is active, but rains have been uneven. Some northwest areas have been flooded due to big rains. Other areas are too dry and there could be some damage to crops if more rains do not show up fairly soon. Thailand is getting rains. The rest of Southeast Asia is seeing average to above average rains so far this year. Some problems are being reported in Europe and Russia for the beet Sugar production.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should average near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1370, 1320, and 1300 October, and resistance is at 1420, 1480, and 1510 October. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 380.00, 377.00, and 374.00 October, and resistance is at 392.00, 398.00, and 407.00 October.
• 08-Aug-2017 08:01:55 AM – INDIA TO SOON RAISE IMPORT TAX ON VEGOIL – GOVT SOURCE
• 08-Aug-2017 08:02:37 AM – INDIA CONSIDERING ALLOWING 200,000 T OF DUTY-FREE SUGAR IMPORTS – GOVT SOURCE
• 08-Aug-2017 08:04:04 AM – INDIA’S OCT 1 SUGAR STOCK SEEN AT 4 MLN T VS 7.7 MLN T YEAR AGO – GOVT SOURCE
India plans to allow extra 200,000 T duty-free sugar imports-source – Reuters News
08-Aug-2017 08:20:59 AM
NEW DELHI, Aug 8 (Reuters) – India is planning to allow additional 200,000 tonnes of duty-free sugar imports, a government source said on Tuesday, as production fell below consumption in 2016/17 marketing year ending on Sept. 30.
The world’s biggest sugar consumer had earlier allowed duty-free imports of 500,000 tonnes of the sweetener.
The country’s opening sugar stock for 2017/18 season starting from Oct. 1 are likely to be 4 million tonnes, down sharply from 7.7 million tonnes this year, the source, who declined to be named, said.
Separately, India is planning to raise import tax on vegetable oils like palm oil, soy oil and sunflower oil, the source added.
General Comments: Futures closed lower after failing to make new highs for the move in early trading. It is warmer and drier in Ivory Coast. The rest of West Africa is still getting showers and more moderate temperatures. Chocolate manufacturers in general have reported improved sales volumes and ideas are that the better sales can continue as chocolate and cocoa are relatively cheap. Ivory Coast is expected to have a big crop starting harvest this Fall, but it should be smaller than last year. Ghana also expects a good crop this year The offer side of their market appears to be less right now as West Africa is between crops. The growing conditions in other parts of the world are generally good. East African conditions are now called good. Brazil remains too dry. Good conditions are still seen in Southeast Asia.
Overnight News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see scattered showers in all areas. Temperatures should average near to above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions or light showers and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 5.269 million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1990, 1940, and 1900 September, with resistance at 2040, 2070, and 2090 September. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1560, 1530, and 1470 September, with resistance at 1610, 1620, and 1650 September.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322
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