Jack Scoville
About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2017 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday.
U.S. 2017 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA July USDA 2016
Corn Production 13,841 13,590-14,070 14,255 15,148
Soybean Production 4,202 4,165-4,260 4,260 4,307
Corn Yield 166.0 162.8-168.5 170.7 174.6
Soybean Yield 47.4 46.9-48.0 48.0 52.1
Corn Soybean
Production Yield Production Yield
AgriSource 13,893 166.4 4,215 47.5
Agrivisor 13,777 165.0 4,188 47.2
Allendale 13,637 163.3 4,165 46.9
DC Analysis 13,813 165.6 4,223 47.6
Doane 13,795 166.0 4,170 47.0
EDF Man 14,028 168.0 4,213 47.5
Farm Futures 13,618 163.5 4,214 47.5
Futures INTL 13,836 166.4 4,170 47.1
Hueber Report 14,070 168.5 4,170 47.5
INTL FCStone 13,590 162.8 4,235 47.7
Sid Love Consultin 13,778 165.0 4,213 47.5
MaxYield 14,030 168.0 4,260 48.0
Northstar 13,848 165.8 4,185 47.5
Price Group 13,860 166.0 4,260 48.0
Prime Ag 13,945 167.0 4,169 47.0
RMC 13,946 167.0 4,216 47.5
US Commodities 13,836 166.5 4,168 47.2
Vantage RM 13,994 168.0 4,213 47.5
Western Milling 13,671 165.0 4,188 47.0
Zaner 13,860 166.0 4,196 47.3

DJ U.S. August Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2016-17 and 2017-18, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2016-17
Average Range USDA July
Corn 2,366 2,320-2,400 2,370
Soybeans 401 370-430 410
Wheat 1,185 1,180-1,200 1,184
2017-18
Average Range USDA July
Corn 1,966 1,642-2,375 2,325
Soybeans 426 369-474 460
Wheat 907 806-948 938
2016-17 2017-18
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSource 2,320 410 1,184 1,894 415 930
Agrivisor 2,360 395 1,184 1,787 423 905
Allendale 2,370 394 1,184 1,927 474 948
DC Analysis 2,380 391 N/A 1,993 456 901
Doane 2,320 430 1,184 1,870 465 903
EDF Man 2,370 410 N/A 2,375 440 938
Farm Futures 2,345 400 N/A 1,884 415 865
Futures INTL 2,380 410 N/A 2,324 410 901
Hueber Report 2,400 390 1180.0 2,220 410 930
INTL FCStone 2,363 395 1,184 1,642 466 868
Sid Love Consulting 2,370 420 1,184 1,848 423 913
MaxYield 2,370 370 1,200 1,900 420 925
Northstar 2,370 395 1,184 1,875 410 900
Price Group 2,340 400 1,184 1,920 450 885
Prime-Ag 2,370 410 1,184 2,015 369 806
RMC 2,370 410 1,184 1,996 440 938
US Commodities 2395 400 N/A 1,956 408 N/A
Vantage RM 2,385 400 1,184 2,081 405 945
Western Milling 2,395 381 1,184 1,816 404 894
Zaner Ag Hedge 2,345 410 1,184 1,995 416 943

DJ August World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2016-17 and 2017-18, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2016-17
Average Range USDA July
Corn 227.2 226.0-228.5 227.5
Soybeans 94.4 93.5-95.0 94.8
Wheat 258.1 256.0-261.0 258.1
2017-18
Average Range USDA July
Corn 194.7 183.0-200.1 200.8
Soybeans 92.2 89.0-94.0 93.5
Wheat 256.7 245.0-263.1 260.6
2016-17 2017-18
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
Agrivisor 227.0 93.5 258.0 183.0 90.0 258.5
Allendale 227.3 94.2 258.1 193.9 93.6 263.1
Doane N/A 95.0 N/A N/A 92.5 N/A
EDF Man 227.5 95.0 N/A 199.0 93.0 258.0
Farm Futures 226.0 94.0 258.0 195.0 93.0 253.0
Futures INTL 227.5 93.5 257.0 196.0 89.0 257.0
Hueber Report 227.0 94.8 256.0 197.0 93.0 258.0
INTL FCStone 227.3 93.7 258.1 192.9 92.4 255.3
MaxYield 226.0 95.0 261.0 198.0 94.0 255.0
Northstar 228.0 94.8 259.0 190.0 92.5 259.0
Prime-Ag 227.0 95.0 258.0 195.0 92.0 245.0
RMC 227.0 94.7 257.6 200.1 93.5 260.1
Western Milling 228.0 94.2 258.0 198.0 93.0 259.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 228.5 94.0 258.1 193.5 89.9 256.2

DJ U.S. Wheat Production Estimates — Survey
CHICAGO–The following are analysts’ estimates for 2017-18 U.S. wheat production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated production forecasts at noon on Thursday.
2017-18 WHEAT PRODUCTION
Average Range USDA July USDA 2016-17
All Wheat 1,713 1,550-1,784 1,760 2,310
Winter Wheat 1,278 1,258-1,293 1,279 1,672
Hard Red Winter 757 737-775 758 1,082
Soft Red Winter 306 300-310 306 345
White Winter 215 205-224 216 245
Other Spring 393 350-440 423 534
Durum 57 52-65 58 104
All Winter Other
Wheat Hard-Red Soft-Red White Spring Durum
Allendale 1784 1279 758 306 216 440 65
AgriVisor 1725 1270 760 300 210 395 60
DC Analysis 1711 1280 758 306 216 373 57
Doane 1742 1279 758 306 216 407 56
EDF Man 1761 1280 760 310 210 423 57
Farm Futures 1719 1279 746 309 224 376 64
Futures INTL 1729 N/A N/A N/A N/A 397 52
Hueber Report 1752 1279 758 306 216 418 55
INTL FCStone 1716 1278 757 306 216 382 55
MaxYield 1550 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Northstar 1715 1290 775 310 205 375 N/A
Sid Love Consultin 1735 1279 758 306 216 400 55
Price Group 1682 1280 753 307 220 350 52
Prime Ag 1628 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
RMC 1740 1271 756 306 N/A N/A N/A
Vantage RM 1733 1258 737 300 216 418 58
Western Milling 1715 1279 758 306 216 377 55
Zaner Ag Hedge 1705 1293 767 308 218 359 53

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Aug 9
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL August Aug. 10, 2017 120 Aug 07, 2017
SOYBEAN OIL August Aug. 10, 2017 114 Aug 04, 2017
SOYBEAN August Aug. 10, 2017 114 Aug 08, 2017

WHEAT
General Comments: US markets were lower on what seemed to be long liquidation before the Thursday USDA reports. Ideas are that US Wheat is relatively cheap in world markets, but a stronger US Dollar hurt those ideas. Minneapolis was lower, but traders anticipate reduced production estimates for Spring Wheat from USDA on Thursday. Ideas are that all three markets could be near some lows and could turn higher in the short-term as seasonal trades suggest higher prices from about now into late in the year. The US Winter Wheat harvest is about ready to wind down now and USDA will most likely issue its final progress report next week. The Spring Wheat harvest is increasing.. There are lower production expectations for the Canadian Prairies as it remains dry in western sections and variable in eastern areas. Australia has suffered from hot and dry weather as the crop moves to maturity and the harvest should be sharply lower. European crops show variable conditions, but the higher quality crops are expected to be smaller due to bad weather in the north. Both Germany and Poland have seen excessive rains. US prices are very competitive in the world market.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get some showers through the weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal. Northern areas should get a few showers through the weekend. Temperatures should be near to below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather, but showers are possible on Wednesday. Temperatures will average near top below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 454 and 446 September. Support is at 453, 443, and 441 September, with resistance at 464, 468, and 473 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 457, 445, and 438 September, with resistance at 471, 472, and 480 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives 675, 667, and 554 September. Support is at 721, 708, and 687 September, and resistance is at 736, 748, and 764 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher in recovery trading as the market starts to prepare for the USDA reports on Thursday. Ideas are that USDA can show reduced production again. USDA showed almost unchanged crop conditions and that crop progress is ahead of normal in its Monday report. The harvest is active in Louisiana and Texas. The quality appears to be good so far in Louisiana amid average to below average yields. Texas is showing very good yields and ideas are that the quality will be very good as well. Harvest activity will move to other states soon. Mississippi has seen some early cutting in southern areas. Arkansas and Missouri will not get started until late August at the earliest. Crop potential in these states is an open question due primarily to harsh weather at the start of the growing season and variable conditions for much of the year. Current weather is mostly good.
Overnight News: The Delta should get scattered showers each day Temperatures should average near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1199 and 1172 September. Support is at 1198, 1181, and 1174 September, with resistance at 1225, 1237, and 1245 September.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices – Aug 9
USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
—–World Price—– MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)
Long Grain 15.15 9.65 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 14.77 10.00 0.00
Brokens 9.14 —- —-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower as some selling developed before the USDA reports on Thursday. Traders are starting to talk more about production potential this year and what USDA might show on Thursday. Just about everyone expects sub trend yields, and some yield estimates are below 165 bushels per acre. However, USDA might not show that kind of loss this time around as this report will be mostly a populations survey and other measurements like ear length and weight that are used to determine overall yields will not really be measured for this month. USDA could easily forecast a yield between 165 and 170 bushels per acre. Price Group held a one day trip to see the crops in Central Illinois on Sunday. Crop potential varies widely depending on the rains and timing of the rains. Yield estimates ranged from about 140 bushels to over 240 bushels per acre. The Corn is mostly in the milk stage and still needs a lot of time to get to maturity. Growing conditions remain variable, Minnesota and parts of Iowa have good crops, but stress is possible in other western areas from the overall dry conditions. However, Missouri and parts of Illinois have good crops. Eastern areas have seen too much rain in many cases.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 373, 379, and 405 September. Support is at 368, 367, and 365 September, and resistance is at 374, 377, and 379 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 266 and 249 September. Support is at 269, 267, and 265 September, and resistance is at 282, 286, and 289 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher, but Soybean Meal closed lower. Most traders were looking ahead to the USDA production reports on Thursday. USDA showed slight improvement in crop condition in its reports on Monday night.. China imported 10.1 million tons of Soybeans in July, a record for the month. The imports came from all origins including the US. Most expect USDA to cut yields from its trend line estimate of 47 bushels per acre, but it might not do that yet as it will have very little information about the crop from this survey. Any significant change in yield estimates might wait until more information about the crop becomes available next month. The Price Group trip to Central Illinois yesterday showed highly variable conditions and production potential for Soybeans. Some fields will not be harvested, and all fields showed short Soybeans plants even if the color and other factors were good. It is highly unlikely that the market will get trend line yields in the end. The Soybeans are just starting to flower now and have not yet set pods. The crop progress is well beyond last year. Wet weather in eastern areas has hurt Soybeans potential, although recent drier weather could allow for some improvement. Plants are small and are not likely to yield well due to all of the rain. Western areas could use some rain, but many crops appear to be in good condition.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations cancelled purchases of 130,000 tons of US old crop Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 962, 959, and 949 September, and resistance is at 975, 976, and 978 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 304.00 and 285.00 September. Support is at 309.00, 305.00, and 302.00 September, and resistance is at 313.00, 315.00, and 317.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 3380, 3320, and 3300 September, with resistance at 3440, 3530, and 3550 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher again yesterday in sympathy with Chicago Soybeans and as many western areas remain too dry for good production potential. Ideas are that crop conditions are highly variable, but it is the hot and dry conditions in the est that have the most trade attention. Reports of tight supplies and limited offers in the cash market continue. Palm Oil was higher along with the outside markets. MPOB releases new data this week that should show bigger production. The July exports reported by the private sources held strong into the end of the month.. There are reports of strong Chinese buying interest in Palm Oil. Traders talked once again about increasing production. Futures are showing that a short-term bottom might have been completed in the last couple of weeks.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 500.00, 495.00, and 493.00 November, with resistance at 510.00, 514.00, and 529.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2710 October. Support is at 2570, 2560, and 2540 October, with resistance at 2640, 2660, and 2700 October.

Trades Estimates for the MPOB Report from Reuters:
Observation period : Jul
Frequency : Monthly
Release date : Thursday, 10 Aug
Forecast as follows:
Production – 1.68 mil tonnes, Up 11.0%
Exports – 1.43 mil tonnes, Up 4.0%
Ending Stocks – 1.63 mil tonnes, Up 6.5%
Prior reading as follows:
Production – 1.51 mil tonnes, Down 8.5%
Exports – 1.38 mil tonnes, Down 8.4%
Ending Stocks – 1.53 mil tonnes, Down 1.9%
Breakdown of July estimates (in tonnes):
Range Median
Production 1,590,000 – 1,718,583 1,681,000
Exports 1,420,000 – 1,449,000 1,434,900
Imports 46,000 – 55,000 49,300
Closing Stocks 1,552,000 – 1,660,000 1,626,000
* Official stocks of 1,527,043 tonnes in June plus the above estimated output and imports give a total July supply of 3,257,343 tonnes. Based on the median of the exports and closing stocks estimates, Malaysia’s domestic consumption in July would be 197,343 tonnes.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers late in the week, but mostly dry weather for the next week. Temperatures should average below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
August 22-Sep 110 Sep 36 Sep 46 Sep minus 4 Sep
September 26-Sep 52 Sep 47 Nov
October 26-Dec 50 Dec 48 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
August
September 95 Sep minus 24 Sep 48 Sep
October minus 21 Oct 35 Dec
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Aug 8
Winnipeg–The following are the closing cash
grain prices from ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at
Thunder Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted. Source: ICE
Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 480.30 up 2.70
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 515.70 up 7.40
2 Can 502.70 up 7.40
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 530.70 up 7.40
2 Can 517.70 up 7.40
FEED WHEAT
Lethbridge 205.00 unchanged
Can Feed 178.00 unchanged
WESTERN BARLEY
Lethbridge 205.00 up 8.00
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-
9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – August 9
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 642.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 642.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 637.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 647.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Aug 647.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Sep 647.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 642.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 652.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 620.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 612.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 2,640 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 279.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.2873)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Aug 09
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 185,220 lots, or 7.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-17 3,860 3,884 3,847 3,873 3,867 3,867 0 26,940 47,940
Nov-17 3,915 3,915 3,915 3,915 3,905 3,915 10 2 6
Jan-18 3,951 3,997 3,951 3,982 3,958 3,976 18 157,330 194,150
Mar-18 3,992 3,992 3,981 3,981 3,976 3,986 10 4 28
May-18 3,987 4,023 3,985 4,015 3,991 4,005 14 872 4,132
Jul-18 – – – 3,930 3,895 3,930 35 0 2
Sep-18 4,006 4,033 4,006 4,022 4,005 4,026 21 26 92
Nov-18 3,992 4,048 3,992 4,048 3,987 4,027 40 10 8
Jan-19 4,022 4,040 4,022 4,040 4,005 4,037 32 36 30
Corn
Turnover: 1,369,160 lots, or 23.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-17 1,665 1,686 1,665 1,683 1,666 1,680 14 321,732 459,604
Nov-17 1,695 1,718 1,690 1,716 1,682 1,703 21 118 566
Jan-18 1,682 1,720 1,681 1,714 1,679 1,702 23 982,358 1,115,368
Mar-18 1,689 1,727 1,689 1,723 1,693 1,707 14 70 1,188
May-18 1,725 1,769 1,725 1,764 1,724 1,745 21 64,854 149,272
Jul-18 1,742 1,773 1,742 1,773 1,740 1,759 19 28 90
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,086,798 lots, or 30.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-17 – – – 2,820 2,820 2,820 0 0 0
Sep-17 2,850 2,859 2,838 2,854 2,835 2,847 12 124,876 401,408
Nov-17 2,852 2,852 2,840 2,843 2,848 2,842 -6 70 216
Dec-17 2,853 2,854 2,853 2,854 2,844 2,853 9 10 638
Jan-18 2,820 2,828 2,809 2,820 2,805 2,817 12 905,224 1,673,618
Mar-18 2,763 2,763 2,738 2,738 2,756 2,757 1 12 356
May-18 2,740 2,751 2,730 2,745 2,727 2,740 13 56,600 250,876
Jul-18 2,759 2,759 2,759 2,759 2,732 2,759 27 6 76
Palm Oil
Turnover: 591,008 lots, or 32.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-17 – – – 5,630 5,630 5,630 0 0 0
Sep-17 5,454 5,486 5,444 5,484 5,418 5,466 48 49,574 136,312
Oct-17 5,542 5,542 5,392 5,426 5,488 5,452 -36 6 4
Nov-17 5,460 5,460 5,460 5,460 5,436 5,460 24 2 8
Dec-17 5,508 5,508 5,408 5,466 5,354 5,454 100 136 2
Jan-18 5,396 5,442 5,386 5,440 5,346 5,412 66 532,790 665,658
Feb-18 – – – 5,406 5,406 5,406 0 0 10
Mar-18 – – – 5,494 5,428 5,494 66 0 0
Apr-18 – – – 5,620 5,620 5,620 0 0 10
May-18 5,532 5,558 5,518 5,558 5,476 5,540 64 8,494 45,522
Jun-18 5,564 5,564 5,564 5,564 5,548 5,564 16 2 12
Jul-18 5,630 5,634 5,630 5,634 5,570 5,632 62 4 6
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 452,346 lots, or 28.34 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-17 – – – 6,200 6,200 6,200 0 0 54
Sep-17 6,132 6,172 6,120 6,164 6,084 6,144 60 71,630 226,922
Nov-17 – – – 6,244 6,184 6,244 60 0 32
Dec-17 – – – 6,260 6,200 6,260 60 0 4
Jan-18 6,280 6,316 6,262 6,308 6,218 6,284 66 372,812 699,652
Mar-18 – – – 6,266 6,202 6,266 64 0 0
May-18 6,390 6,436 6,380 6,424 6,340 6,400 60 7,904 37,294
Jul-18 – – – 6,420 6,420 6,420 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures. The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author. Trading in futures contracts, options on futures contracts, and forward contracts is not suitable for all investors and involves substantial risks. ©2017

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